Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]

丨证券研究报告丨 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国核电（601985.SH） [Table_Title] 核绿电量延续优异表现，上半年业绩展望稳健 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 机组大修损失同比减少以及漳州 1 号年初商运共同拉动上半年核电发电量同比增长 12.01%， 单二季度核电发电量同比增长 10.77%。在电量优异表现的带动下，二季度及上半年公司核电 板块预计实现稳健的业绩表现。装机持续扩张拉动上半年新能源电量同比增长 35.76%，但考 虑增资引战后公司对中核汇能的持股比例降低，二季度及上半年新能源的归母业绩贡献或仍面 临一定压力。整体来看，上半年公司发电量同比增长 15.65%，即使考虑市场化交易、新能源股 比稀释等影响，预计公司二季度业绩仍将实现稳健增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for short-term production cuts as a "stopgap" measure against industry overcapacity, with a neutral assumption of a 30 million ton year-on-year reduction in crude steel production in 2025, potentially leading to a 229 CNY/ton increase in rebar prices and an 86 CNY/ton rise in profit per ton [2][7] - The report emphasizes the gradual advancement of medium-term capacity reduction, with the "2025 Steel Industry Normative Conditions" clarifying standards for "compliant capacity," indicating that about 20% of capacity, primarily from small private enterprises, may face exit pressure starting in 2026 [2][7] - Recent market sentiment has improved, with a slight increase in demand, as evidenced by a 0.68% week-on-week rise in average daily sales of construction steel to 106,800 tons [4][5] - The report notes a decrease in average daily pig iron production to 2.4085 million tons, reflecting a 1.44 million ton day-on-day drop, and a year-on-year decline of 4.09% in total steel production [4][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The central financial committee's meeting has sparked optimism regarding supply-side optimization in the steel market, leading to a recovery in steel prices [4] - The report indicates that the total inventory of steel has decreased slightly, with a year-on-year decline of 30.61% for long products and 15.96% for sheet products [5] Section 2: Policy Implications - The report discusses the significance of the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address overcapacity in the steel industry, suggesting that administrative measures could stabilize steel prices and improve profitability [6][30] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy could lead to a significant transformation in the industry, comparable to previous supply-side reforms [6][30] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [30] 2. Companies with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [30] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative, which could enhance asset quality and valuation [31] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly those in specialized fields or benefiting from macroeconomic recovery [31]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [14]. Core Views - The company is a leader in ultrasonic equipment in China, gradually expanding its application fields and is optimistic about its platform-based layout and new business increments [2][8]. - The company has a comprehensive product matrix that covers various industry needs, with battery business as a cornerstone and rapid growth in harness, semiconductor, and consumable businesses [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2007, the company initially focused on ultrasonic cutting for rubber tires and has since expanded into the new energy battery sector, non-woven fabrics, harnesses, and semiconductors [2][8]. - The company has developed a complete ultrasonic technology platform, providing solutions across various industries, including new energy batteries, rubber tires, non-woven fabrics, automotive harnesses, and power semiconductors [25][31]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 585 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.30%, with significant growth in harness, semiconductor, and consumable businesses [8][41]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 64.91%, an increase of 9.30 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Segments - **Battery Segment**: The ultrasonic welding technology is crucial for the ear welding stage in lithium batteries, with increasing demand driven by the growth of new energy vehicle sales [9][52]. - **Semiconductor Segment**: The company has secured bulk orders in the semiconductor field, particularly for advanced packaging and testing ultrasonic equipment, benefiting from the rapid growth of IGBT [10][41]. - **Harness Segment**: The demand for high-voltage harnesses in electric vehicles has opened up the welding market, with the company leading in market share and technology [11][41]. Research and Development - The company invests heavily in R&D, with a research expense ratio exceeding 20%, and has developed six core self-researched technologies that meet international standards [12][41]. - The high-margin consumable business is growing rapidly, providing stable cash flow for the company [12][41]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a market leader with strong customer resources and has established partnerships with major players in the industry [12][41]. - The competitive landscape shows the company gradually increasing its market share against domestic competitors [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new equipment showcased in military parades since the 18th National Congress, which is expected to drive independent market trends in the sector [8] - The mid-term investment strategy for the defense and military industry in 2025 focuses on long-term profitability while also considering thematic investments [22] - The deep-sea technology sector, particularly Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs), is highlighted as a leading area for new equipment development, with the U.S. military market projected to exceed $50 billion over the next decade [56] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing intense competition for quality frequency resources, with domestic satellite constellations expected to accelerate deployment [84] Summary by Sections Military Parades and National Defense Achievements - Military parades since the 18th National Congress have showcased national defense achievements, with new equipment expected to drive independent market trends [10][13] - The 2019 National Day parade featured 580 pieces of equipment, 40% of which were making their debut [16] Investment Strategy for 2025 - The report outlines a mid-term investment strategy that emphasizes profitability and thematic investments, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controlled nuclear fusion [22][26] Deep-Sea Technology - The report notes that deep-sea technology was first mentioned in the 2025 government work report, indicating its emerging importance as a new industry [63] - UUVs are highlighted for their cost-effectiveness and operational flexibility, with the U.S. military's UUV market projected to exceed $50 billion over the next decade based on demand for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) [74] Commercial Aerospace - The report discusses the growing demand for satellite constellations in the commercial aerospace sector, with over 20,000 satellites expected to be launched by 2030 [84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming market continues to grow at a high speed, with multiple new games contributing to incremental growth. The market size in May reached 28.051 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.86% and a month-on-month increase of 2.56% [4][10]. - Several self-developed games, such as "Kingshot," have performed well in overseas markets, indicating a strong outlook for game exports. The actual sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in overseas markets was 1.577 billion USD in May, up 6.93% year-on-year [10]. - The issuance of game licenses has reached a recent high, with 158 licenses granted in June, including 147 domestic and 11 imported games, signaling positive policy support for the industry [10]. - The upcoming summer game release cycle is expected to sustain high industry prosperity, with several new titles from listed gaming companies showing strong performance [10]. - The combination of new game cycles, favorable policies, and advancements in AI technology is expected to enhance the valuation of the gaming sector, making it a focal point for investment opportunities [10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The gaming market in China maintained a robust growth trajectory, with May's market size at 28.051 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month growth of 2.56% [4][10]. - Mobile games contributed significantly, with a market size of 21.177 billion yuan in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.96% [10]. New Game Releases - Multiple new games have shown strong performance, with titles like "杖剑传说" and "超自然行动组" achieving significant revenue in their initial months [10]. - The summer release cycle is anticipated to further boost the gaming sector's fundamentals [10]. Policy Support - Recent policy initiatives have been introduced across various regions to support the gaming industry, including measures to enhance game exports and promote AI integration [10]. - The issuance of game licenses in June has set a new record since the resumption of approvals in 2022, indicating a stable and supportive regulatory environment [10]. AI Integration - Companies are making progress in integrating AI with gaming, with notable developments such as the upcoming launch of AI-driven gaming applications [10]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to catalyze growth within the gaming sector, enhancing both product offerings and operational efficiencies [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [13]. Core Views - The company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic energy storage market and is rapidly expanding into overseas markets. With improvements in domestic energy storage business models and sustained industry demand growth, the company's fundamentals exhibit high growth potential. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for energy storage installations is expected to exceed 30% from 2025 to 2030, indicating a strong demand environment [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2011, the company has grown into a domestic energy storage leader with a focus on large-scale, commercial, and residential storage applications. The company has shifted its focus from electric vehicle battery leasing to energy storage, achieving a shipment growth rate of 205% and a revenue growth rate of 117% from 2020 to 2024 [8][31]. Market Position and Performance - The company has maintained a gross margin above 18% despite significant price declines in the domestic energy storage market. The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 16.85% for domestic operations and 42.14% for overseas operations, indicating strong operational quality [9][40]. Growth Potential - The company is rapidly advancing its overseas energy storage business, with strategic partnerships established in Europe, North America, and Australia. The average gross margins for energy storage systems in these regions are significantly higher than in the domestic market, providing substantial profit potential as overseas sales increase [10][11]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 8.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 11.3 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of about 19 times and 14 times, respectively [11]. Industry Trends - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing a shift towards independent storage solutions, with a significant increase in installation and bidding volumes. The market is expected to maintain a favorable growth trajectory due to ongoing policy improvements and market dynamics [49][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The recent announcement of the stock swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant step towards the merger's completion. Post-merger, the company will become the largest publicly listed shipbuilding company globally, enhancing its influence while reducing competition within the shipbuilding sector [2][4] - The merger is expected to create synergies that will improve order efficiency and shipbuilding capacity, thereby enhancing profitability. Following the merger, the integration of other quality assets within the group is anticipated to commence [2][11] - The company is projected to see a continuous increase in the proportion of high-value ship orders delivered by 2025, leading to sustained performance growth. The advancement in deep-sea technology positions the company as a leader in marine engineering, which is expected to yield significant benefits [2][11] Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 4, the company announced that its application for a stock swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has been approved by the M&A Review Committee of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, meeting the restructuring conditions and information disclosure requirements [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in global shipbuilding, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 73.5 billion, 100.8 billion, and 128.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20X, 15X, and 11X [11][15] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 78.584 billion in 2024 to 109.957 billion in 2027, with gross profit margins increasing from 10% to 19% over the same period [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [11]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but marginal downward pressure has increased since April. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The importance of real estate in the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked, and attention should be paid to leading real estate companies with regional and product advantages, as well as those with stable cash flows [5][9]. - The rental-to-sale ratio, which is equivalent to the capitalization rate, is crucial for stabilizing housing prices. A rental-to-sale ratio below 2% is considered insufficient, and the actual interest rate is the key factor influencing this ratio. The current focus is more on housing consumption rather than investment [3][9]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.32% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 4.64%. The sector has performed poorly relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ranking 25th out of 32 this week and 30th out of 32 year-to-date [6][14]. - New housing transaction volumes in sample cities have dropped significantly, with new home transaction area down 13.7% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions showed a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [8][19]. Policy Updates - Recent policies include the Hubei province's plan to revitalize existing land resources and Guangzhou's new regulations for converting commercial loans to public housing fund loans. These policies aim to improve the efficiency of state-owned assets and support infrastructure projects through real estate investment trusts (REITs) [7][17]. Sales Data - The report indicates that new home sales in 37 cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 14.8% for the month of July, while second-hand home sales have decreased by 12.6% [8][19].