丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 中东地缘波动加剧，油运看涨期权或兑现 ——交运周专题 2025W24 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 13 日，以色列空袭伊朗，中东局势升级。复盘 1980s 年代两伊战争，油轮市场一波三折： 短期供应链扰动与风险溢价推涨运价；中期高油价抑制需求导致油运景气下行；后期需求复苏 运价回升。本次冲突重燃市场对于霍尔木兹海峡关闭的担忧，我们认为：1）短期，冲突加剧下 恐慌性补库将推涨油运；2）中长期，海峡长期封闭可能性较小，更多以扰乱船只通行为主，导 致航运效率下降；同时，高油价或使得美国等国家原油出口替代，拉长原油运距。综上，油运 将沿着恐慌补库和航运效率降低两种方式获利上行，推荐关注油运龙头中远海能、招商轮船。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has entered a new development stage with the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with PIVI, which plans to purchase construction materials and other new materials valued at approximately 302 million RMB over three years [2][4]. - The company is focusing on new material platforms, including a joint venture with Micro Era to develop "quantum + AI" materials and a partnership with the University of Science and Technology of China to establish a research platform for new materials [9]. - The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from its new material developments, with projected net profits of 80 million, 200 million, and 300 million RMB from 2024 to 2026, respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is 15.83 RMB, with a total share capital of 36,882 million shares and a net asset per share of 6.10 RMB [7]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,526 million RMB in 2024 to 4,060 million RMB in 2027, with gross profit increasing from 641 million RMB to 1,181 million RMB over the same period [14]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 86 million RMB in 2024 to 340 million RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [14]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from overseas market growth, particularly in the Philippines and potentially in the Middle East, as it expands its new material offerings [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 行业研究丨专题报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 现房销售下，关注中建国际装配式 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 13 日，河南省信阳市住建局发布《关于加强商品房预售管理工作的若干措施（试行）》要 求今后新出让土地开发的商品房，一律实行现房销售。现房销售，是指房地产开发企业将已竣 工验收合格、具备法定交付条件并可直接办理产权登记的商品房向市场出售的行为。近年来， 多地积极探索推行现房销售，相关配套支持政策也在不断完善。 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 现房销售下，关注中建国际装配式 [Table_Summary2] 信阳明确全面落实现房销售，多地展开探索 信阳明确全面落实现房销售，多地展开探索。5 月 13 日，河南省信阳市住建局发布《关于加强 商品房预售管理工作的 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 香港 HIBOR 大幅下降，港股公用配置价值突出 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月份以来，在香港金融管理局的宏观调控下，香港 HIBOR 大幅下降影响，利率的低位以及充 沛的资金使得港股电力公用板块迎来新一轮配置价值，而且作为红利资产的代表，震荡的外部 环境中电力公用板块防御价值也将进一步凸显。当然电力公用板块的吸引不仅限于资金层面， 业绩维度来看二季度火电成本进一步下降，绿电电量增速加速增长，单季业绩增速斜率将进一 步上修，电力板块是市场行业比较中少有的攻守兼备的行业，我们认为当前时点港股凭借更宽 松的利率环境更具配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that selecting undervalued stocks may effectively mitigate the uncertainties on the demand side, especially as the steel industry faces increased short-term demand risks. Leading steel companies that previously enjoyed premium valuations due to strong market positions and growth potential have seen significant declines in both valuation and performance during the industry's bottoming process. Current valuation levels are at the cycle's bottom, providing a strong margin of safety. Even with demand pressures, the extent of valuation retraction may be limited if macro expectations improve compared to last year [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Demand Side Analysis - Recent uncertainties in the steel demand side have increased due to seasonal effects and intensified trade frictions. The construction sector is experiencing order suppression due to high temperatures and rainfall, while the manufacturing sector faces indirect export pressures from tariff announcements. The apparent consumption of major steel products has decreased by 2.67% year-on-year and 1.82% month-on-month [5]. Supply Side Analysis - The average daily pig iron output has decreased to 2.4161 million tons, continuing a downward trend, but the reduction is limited. The total steel output has dropped by 5.25% year-on-year and 2.85% month-on-month. The report highlights the need to monitor the pace of production cuts as the industry enters the off-season [5]. Inventory and Price Trends - Inventory reduction has slowed due to weakened demand, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.70%. The total inventory of long products has decreased by 31.20% year-on-year, while flat product inventory has decreased by 14.88% year-on-year. Current prices for rebar and hot-rolled steel have dropped by 70 yuan per ton, with rebar priced at 3070 yuan per ton and hot-rolled steel at 3160 yuan per ton [6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on long-term undervalued state-owned enterprises like Baosteel and companies with strong shareholder returns such as Nanjing Steel and CITIC Special Steel. It also highlights the potential of low valuation and performance bottoming companies like Hualing Steel and New Steel, as well as opportunities in mergers and acquisitions [25].

丨证券研究报告丨 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 积极配置非银板块优质红马，持续关注业绩 高弹性个股 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 二季度政策端与市场交投趋势稳中向好，我们认为优质的非银行业红马配置性价比仍较高，从盈利和分红 的稳定性维度出发，推荐江苏金租、中国平安及中国财险。综合业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保险、中 国人寿、香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、九方智投控股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 积极配置非银板块优质红马，持续关注 2] 业绩高 弹性个股 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 市场：市场热度有所回升，两市日均成交额 13,716.78 亿元，环比+13.47%，日均换手率 1.72%， 环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential impact of rising oil prices on coal prices and the coal sector, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts can lead to synchronized price increases for oil and coal, but this requires substantial and sustained effects on oil supply and demand [2][7] - The current coal prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by seasonal factors such as the rainy season affecting power plant inventory replenishment and a reduction in production from some small private coal mines [6][18] - Historical analysis indicates that past geopolitical conflicts have not consistently led to increases in coal prices, emphasizing the need for sustained oil supply disruptions for a similar effect on coal [8][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.40%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries [18] - As of June 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 609 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [6][18] Supply and Demand Situation - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 4.756 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% week-on-week and 6.7% year-on-year [34] - The total coal inventory in power plants was 119 million tons, with an available days supply of 24.9 days, reflecting a slight increase [34] Price Situation - The report notes that the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton from the previous week [6][18] - The report highlights that the international coal prices have shown fluctuations, with Australian 5500 kcal FOB prices at 68.25 USD/ton, down 0.8 USD/ton week-on-week [18][36] Company Performance - The report identifies top-performing coal companies for the week, including Anyuan Coal Industry (up 11.33%) and Yunnan Coal Energy (up 9.82%) [28][31] - Conversely, companies like Dayou Energy and Pingmei Shenma Coal fell by 4.15% and 3.67%, respectively [28][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocation to leading companies with stable profits such as China Coal Energy and Shenhua Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company announced its first mid-term dividend plan, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and ability to enhance dividend amounts by increasing capital stock by 10% annually in 2024 and 2025 [2][11]. - The bank is accelerating its branch expansion, including the absorption of Jiangsu Rudong Rongxing Village Bank and the establishment of a technology branch in Suzhou High-tech Zone, indicating a clear path for growth [2][11]. - The bank's performance remains strong, with a focus on improving asset quality and maintaining a leading position in industry growth rates [11]. Summary by Sections Company Investment Rating - The current stock price is 7.39 yuan, with a total share capital of 331,649 million shares and a net asset per share of 9.57 yuan [9]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to implement mid-term dividends for the first time, with expectations to increase the dividend per share (DPS) to 0.28 yuan or 0.30 yuan in 2025, resulting in dividend yields of 3.8% and 4.0% respectively [11]. Branch Expansion - The bank has accelerated its branch expansion since Q4 2024, with a clear growth trajectory through various acquisition and establishment strategies, including the absorption of village banks and the establishment of new branches [11][12]. Financial Performance - The bank's net interest margin remains significantly above industry averages, and it is expected to maintain a steady credit growth rate of around 8% in 2025 [11]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is projected to improve, with a focus on risk management and asset quality [11]. Market Position - The bank is currently valued at 0.77 times its 2025 price-to-book ratio, indicating it is undervalued compared to historical levels, and is recommended for investment due to its competitive advantages and growth potential [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 产业端边际宽松的必要性逐步提高 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 今年 Q2 以来行业下行斜率逐步扩大，止跌回稳的政策目标面临压力，6 月国常会也提及更大 力度推动市场止跌回稳，预期管理层面边际上可能更趋积极，只是节奏和力度需要进一步探讨。 宏观和产业端官方数据呈现的压力并不显著，可能意味着宽松节奏没那么急迫，产业端常规宽 松空间和边际效果相对有限，但真正值得期待的在于超常规层面，核心矛盾还是必要性和时间 点。当前开发类个股位置不高，政策宽松的必要性逐步提高，可择优配置等待交易窗口；而具 备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业、经纪和物管龙头，则是战略性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 产业端边际宽松的必要性逐步提高 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 27.01 billion yuan for FY2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.29 billion yuan, down 41.9%, which met expectations. The second half of FY2025 recorded a revenue of 13.96 billion yuan, a decline of 5.4%, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, down 52.9%. The total dividend for the year was approximately 1.7 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 135%, exceeding expectations, primarily due to cash flow performance significantly outpacing net profit [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company reported total revenue of 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, down 41.9%. The second half of FY2025 saw revenue of 13.96 billion yuan, a decline of 5.4%, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, down 52.9%. The annual dividend was around 1.7 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 135%, attributed to strong cash flow performance [2][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for FY2025 decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, mainly due to increased discounting and a higher proportion of online sales. The selling and administrative expense ratios were 29.4% and 3.7%, respectively, benefiting from a 1.3% reduction in rental costs. The company closed approximately 1,100 stores, resulting in a total of 5,020 stores, which improved operational efficiency [8]. Inventory and Cash Flow - The company significantly optimized its inventory, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 1 day to 135 days and inventory down 4.5% year-on-year to 6 billion yuan. Operating cash flow increased by 20% year-on-year to 3.76 billion yuan, while accounts receivable decreased by 600 million yuan to 750 million yuan [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in FY2026 due to store closures and cautious procurement. The overall revenue is projected to decline, with net profit estimates for FY2026 and FY2027 at 1.32 billion yuan and 1.42 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.57X and 11.74X [10].