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兴业科技(002674):公司研究|点评报告|兴业科技(002674.SZ):兴业科技(002674):兴业科技2025Q3点评:业绩短期承压,期待明年企稳回升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - In the short term, the company's performance is expected to be under pressure, but there is potential for recovery in 2026 due to the release of overseas production capacity and growth in automotive leather demand [2][10] - The company has entered the supply chains of global sports brands like Adidas and VF, which could open up growth and valuation opportunities in the long term [2][10] - New businesses such as Hongxing and Baotai are in a high growth phase, driven by platform advantages and a favorable industry environment, contributing to the company's expected growth [2][10] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 64% to 40 million yuan [4][10] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 670 million yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 84% to 8 million yuan [4][10] - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 80 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 150 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -44%, +62%, and +15% [2][10]
收入表现优于预期,预计FY2027将迎拐点:望远镜系列26之UA FY2026Q1经营跟踪
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 柯睿 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490524110001 SFC:BUU942 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 望远镜系列 26 之 UA FY2026Q1 经营跟踪:收 入表现优于预期,预计 FY2027 将迎拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FY2026Q2(2025/7/1-2025/9/30)UA 实现营收 13.3 亿美元,同比-4.7%,收入表现优于市场 及公司预期(彭博一致预期 13.1 亿美元,公司先前指引 Q2 营收同比下滑 6%-7%)。毛利率同 比-2.5pct 至 47.3%,主要受关税增加及渠道和区域组合影响,净利率同比转负至-1.4%。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 望远镜系列2]26 之 UA FY2026Q1 经营跟踪:收 入表现优于预期,预计 FY2027 将迎拐点 [Table_Summary ...
森马服饰(002563):森马服饰2025Q3业绩点评:增长韧性优于同业,销售费用拖累净利润
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in growth compared to peers, with a focus on controlling discounts and reducing inventory, which has yielded positive results. The sentiment from childbirth subsidy policies is expected to boost retail performance, particularly for the Balabala brand, contributing to improved earnings. The company is also expected to benefit from ongoing new retail reforms and its strategy of opening new stores despite market challenges [2][4][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, a decrease of 28.9% [4][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 940 million, 1.03 billion, and 1.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -17%, +9%, and +8%, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, 14, and 13 times [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 220 million yuan, reflecting a 13.1% increase [4][8]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 42.5%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better discount control and an increase in direct sales [8]. - The inventory at the end of Q3 was 4.14 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%, primarily due to winter inventory [8].
五粮液(000858):五粮液2025年三季报点评:龙头担当,开启调整
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 60.945 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 10.26% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 8.174 billion yuan, a drop of 52.66%, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% [2][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the deep adjustment period in the liquor industry and the slower-than-expected recovery in effective demand [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's total revenue was 60.945 billion yuan, with a net profit of 21.511 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 21.495 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.26% and 13.72% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 8.174 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.015 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 52.66% and 65.62% respectively [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The company is breaking the rigid constraints of its targets and entering an adjustment phase, which is expected to alleviate pressure on distributors and gradually reduce inventory [10]. - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 13.53 percentage points to 62.64% in Q3 2025, while the net profit margin fell by 9.31 percentage points to 24.7% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance as industry demand stabilizes, with projected EPS of 6.8 yuan and 6.97 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 times [10].
伊利股份(600887):伊利股份2025年三季报点评:液奶压力仍存,盈利能力稳健
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.71%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 18.73% to 10.103 billion yuan [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a total revenue of 28.631 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.226 billion yuan, down 3.35% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters, revenue from liquid milk was 54.939 billion yuan (down 4.49% year-on-year), while revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 24.261 billion yuan (up 13.74% year-on-year). Revenue from cold drinks reached 9.428 billion yuan (up 13%), and other products saw significant growth, with revenue of 0.976 billion yuan (up 65.12%) [5] - In Q3 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 8.83% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products increased by 12.65%, and cold drinks grew by 17.35% [5] Profitability Analysis - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 0.69 percentage points to 11.51%, while the gross profit margin increased by 0.45 percentage points to 35.48%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 21.97% [6] - In Q3 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 11.27%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 33.92% [6] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is exploring new business opportunities despite pressure on liquid milk demand, with strong performance in new products and channels. Capital expenditures are expected to stabilize, with 2024 capital expenditure projected at approximately 3.978 billion yuan, down from 6.956 billion yuan in 2023 [7] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, representing 29.12% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [7]
古井贡酒(000596):古井贡酒2025年三季报点评:需求承压,调整加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 16.425 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.96 billion yuan, down 16.57% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 2.545 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 51.65%, with net profit dropping 74.56% to 299 million yuan [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the total revenue was 16.425 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.87%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.96 billion yuan, down 16.57% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.908 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.85% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 2.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 51.65%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 299 million yuan, down 74.56% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 282 million yuan, a decrease of 75.71% year-on-year [2][4]. Profitability Analysis - The company's profitability in Q3 2025 showed a significant decline, primarily due to a substantial increase in expense ratios. The net profit margin decreased by 10.57 percentage points to 11.73%, while the gross profit margin increased by 1.96 percentage points to 79.83%. The expense ratio rose by 18.23 percentage points to 47.21% [11]. Market Outlook - The company is facing industry demand pressure but is responding promptly by accelerating its adjustments. Given the solid brand foundation within the province and ongoing cultivation of strategic markets outside the province, recovery is expected in the future. The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 8.53 yuan and 8.76 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18 and 17 times based on the current stock price [11].
新乳业(002946):新乳业2025年三季报点评:产品结构优化,盈利改善延续
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 647 million yuan, reflecting a 27.62% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, up 27.67% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 236 million yuan, an increase of 21.88% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 7.39%, with a gross margin increase of 0.38 percentage points to 29.47%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 20.23% [5]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.42 percentage points to 7.78%, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 28.43%. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 19.12% [5]. Strategic Positioning - The company adheres to a strategy of regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation, achieving alpha performance. It focuses on high-end fresh milk and active nutrition products, creating a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [6]. - The high-end product line caters to quality-sensitive consumers, while large-pack products meet cost-performance needs. The company strengthens its direct-to-consumer (DTC) supply chain system as a core competitive advantage [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 18 times [6].
迎驾贡酒(603198):迎驾贡酒2025年三季报点评:需求承压,静待改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.516 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.09%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.511 billion yuan, down 24.67% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.356 billion yuan, a decline of 21.55% year-on-year, with a net profit of 381 million yuan, down 39.29% year-on-year [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.09% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.511 billion yuan, down 24.67% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.474 billion yuan, a decline of 26.16% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.356 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.55% year-on-year, with a net profit of 381 million yuan, down 39.29% year-on-year [2][5] Product and Regional Sales - In Q3 2025, the company’s sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 1.014 billion yuan and 260 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 21.78% and 22.78%. Regionally, sales revenue from within the province was 875 million yuan, down 21.64%, while sales from outside the province were 398 million yuan, down 22.74% [11] Profitability Analysis - The company's profitability declined in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company fell by 8.21 percentage points to 28.11%, while the gross margin decreased by 5.67 percentage points to 70.17%. The expense ratio increased by 4.73 percentage points to 18.06% [11] Market Strategy - The company is controlling market pace to maintain a healthy market environment. Given the current external pressures, the company is adjusting its financial statements to prepare for future growth. EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 2.57 yuan and 2.69 yuan, corresponding to current PE ratios of 16 and 15 times, respectively [11]
华厦眼科(301267):业绩符合预期,营收增长稳健
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations with steady revenue growth. For the first three quarters of 2025, the operating revenue reached 3.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.83%. In the third quarter alone, the operating revenue was 1.133 billion yuan, growing by 0.13% year-on-year. The overall gross margin remains stable, with a gross margin of 44.71% in Q3 2025, slightly down from 45.44% in Q2 2025. Future growth in gross margin is anticipated as the company continues to focus on high-quality services, awaiting a return to higher revenue growth rates [5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 3.272 billion yuan, up 2.83% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 434 million yuan, an increase of 3.04%. In Q3 2025, the operating revenue was 1.133 billion yuan, with a net profit of 152 million yuan, down 2.37% year-on-year [5][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company adheres to a dual-driven strategy of "internal growth + external mergers and acquisitions." It leverages the Xiamen Eye Center as a core, utilizing its leading diagnostic and treatment capabilities along with mature hospital management experience. The company has established a standardized high-quality medical service and management system across its chain of hospitals, expanding its ophthalmology network to 64 specialized hospitals and 67 optical centers across 19 provinces and municipalities by mid-2025 [11]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes the "coordinated development of medicine, education, and research," focusing on eye disease treatment. It has established a comprehensive medical education and research system, collaborating with over 40 universities, including Peking University and Xiamen University. This collaboration covers talent training, academic co-construction, and clinical research, with over 380 national and provincial research projects initiated and 1,641 academic papers published by mid-2025 [11]. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 730 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 30, 25, and 22 times for the respective years, maintaining a "Buy" rating [11].
胜宏科技(300476):胜宏科技2025年三季报点评:全球AI PCB领先企业,旺盛需求加速成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.117 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 83.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.245 billion yuan, a significant increase of 324.38%. The gross margin and net margin were 35.85% and 22.98%, respectively [2][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.086 billion yuan, up 78.95% year-on-year and 7.80% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 260.52%, although it declined by 9.88% compared to the previous quarter. The gross margin and net margin for this quarter were 35.19% and 21.66%, respectively [2][6] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company is experiencing robust demand, particularly in the AI PCB sector, which is driving its growth. The expansion of production capacity is progressing steadily, with the first phase of the Thailand factory already in operation. The company has 3.548 billion yuan in construction projects underway, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.42 billion yuan, primarily targeting the AI server market [12] - The company has established high technical barriers and is accelerating its product layout in AI. It has achieved significant technological advancements, including the ability to manufacture high-layer PCBs and HDI products, positioning itself as a core partner for leading technology firms globally [12] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.351 billion yuan, 8.628 billion yuan, and 11.284 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios at the current stock price are projected to be 47.04, 29.17, and 22.31 [12]