丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg2] 联想集团（00992.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨联想集团（00992.HK） [Table_Title] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元，同比增长 18%；毛 利率 15.1%，同比下降 0.6pct；归母净利润 5.46 亿美元，同比下降 21%，主因一次性重组费 用、认股权证的非现金公允价值收益等非现金项目的影响；经调整净利润 5.89 亿美元，同比增 长 36%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - As of February 22, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national express delivery volume for the first five weeks of the year is 1.9%, a significant slowdown compared to 29.3% in the same period last year. This slowdown is attributed to increased compliance costs due to precise tax audits and the positive price growth resulting from regulatory measures against excessive competition. The industry is expected to maintain single-digit growth rates through 2026, with leading companies likely to gain market share [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery volume growth has significantly slowed, with the current growth rate at 1.9% compared to 29.3% last year. This is primarily due to increased compliance costs for merchants and a positive price growth trend since September 2025 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The leading express companies are expected to see their market share increase as the competitive landscape shifts. In January, the growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 29.8%, Shentong Express at 25.6%, and Yunda Express at 10.8% [4][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading express companies such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are currently valued at historical lows. Attention is also drawn to SF Express, which has been optimizing its product structure and is expected to see a profitability turnaround [5]. Logistics Data - Air freight prices have remained stable despite the off-peak season, with strong demand for high-tech products contributing to this trend. The average utilization rates for Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines logistics are reported at 10.7 hours and 14.0 hours, respectively [7][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data during the 2026 Spring Festival shows that the "quantity" of travel and tourism consumption continued to recover, but the price recovery lagged; the logistics was differentiated, with strong foreign trade resilience and weak production and consumption logistics; the volume of hotels and scenic spots increased while the price decreased, and the box office was weak; the real - estate market continued to be under pressure, with weak transactions in both new and second - hand housing. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is highly likely that the subsequent fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price". Currently in a low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market, and the view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [1][4][7][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Travel: Long holidays release travel demand, and self - driving travel is popular - The demand for family visits and tourism during the Spring Festival was continuously released, and the overall passenger volume remained high. As of the sixth day of the first lunar month, during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, the overall passenger volume increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among different transportation modes, the waterway had the highest growth rate, with railway, civil aviation, highway, and waterway passenger volumes increasing by 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.0%, and 23.1% respectively [10]. - The cross - regional population flow during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 reached a new high in recent years, with a significant increase in travel willingness. The peak occurred on the sixth day of the first lunar month, with a 12.3% increase compared to 2025, a 20.6% increase compared to 2024, and a 46.9% increase compared to 2019 [10]. - There was an obvious characteristic of off - peak travel before the festival. The growth compared to 2025 was mainly concentrated in the post - festival peak, while the improvement compared to 2024 started from the 24th day of the twelfth lunar month. The growth compared to 2019 was throughout the whole period, indicating that the long holiday catalyzed the release of residents' travel demand [11]. - The travel choices during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 were dominated by self - driving, reflecting residents' preference for short - distance travel. The proportion of non - commercial highway (mainly private cars) flow reached 81.6%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase compared to 2019 [18]. - The domestic flight volume, passenger volume, and occupancy rate remained prosperous, but the price recovery was weak, and the pattern of "trading price for volume" was difficult to reverse in the short term. The domestic flight volume increased by 4.0% year - on - year, the passenger volume increased by 6.5%, the occupancy rate increased by 1.2%, and the domestic oil - included ticket price decreased by 1.5% [22]. 3.2. Logistics: Foreign trade shows resilience, while production and consumption logistics weaken in advance - The national logistics near the Spring Festival in 2026 showed a pattern of "strong foreign - trade resilience, high - then - low production logistics, and early - weakening consumption logistics". The container throughput maintained a year - on - year positive growth of 9.3% - 12.2% in the four weeks before the festival, but the growth rate of the monitored port cargo throughput fluctuated and declined [34]. - The production logistics was high in the early stage and low in the later stage. The national highway truck traffic volume increased by 4.3% and 2.6% year - on - year in the four and three weeks before the festival respectively, but the growth rate slowed down and turned negative in the last two weeks before the festival, indicating a rapid contraction of production logistics near the holiday [34]. - The consumption logistics contracted in advance. The postal express collection volume declined from 9.2% four weeks before the festival to 0.5% one week before the festival, and the delivery volume declined from 7.9% to 1.4%, suggesting that the peak of New Year goods delivery was earlier than last year [34]. - The railway transportation was stable, and civil aviation continued to grow. The national railway freight volume fluctuated slightly around zero, and the civil aviation flight volume maintained a positive growth of 4.8% - 6.0% [34]. 3.3. Tourism Consumption: Hotels and Scenic Spots See Volume Increase but Price Decrease, and the Box Office is Weak - The hotel occupancy rate increased, but the price was under pressure. The occupancy rate of the overall sample of Chinese mainland hotels increased from 54.7% five weeks before the festival to 64.0% one week before the festival, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. However, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the average daily rate (ADR) decreased compared to last year [40]. - The scenic spots' business improved. The number of tourists in many provincial - level key - monitored scenic spots increased significantly, and the revenue of some popular scenic spots also increased substantially. For example, the revenue of Zhangjiajie Huanglongdong increased by 79% [42][45]. - Hainan's tourism consumption recovered strongly, with both volume and price increasing. The number of passengers at Haikou Meilan Airport increased day by day, and the off - island duty - free shopping also rebounded significantly. From February 15 - 19, the shopping amount, number of people, and per - capita consumption were 13.8 billion yuan, 17.7 million person - times, and 7,797 yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 19%, 24.6%, and - 4.5% [45]. - The Spring Festival movie market had a weak performance in both volume and price. The 7 - day cumulative box office from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month was 5.09 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of only 86% compared to 2019, and the average ticket price decreased by 5% year - on - year [47]. 3.4. Real Estate: Both New and Second - hand Housing Transactions are Weak, and the Volume and Price in First - tier Cities are Declining - The new - housing market had a significant decline in transaction volume. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the two months before the Spring Festival in 2026 was significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In the first week before the festival, it was only 1.102 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 36.6%, and during the Spring Festival week, it was 83,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% [61]. - The second - hand housing market was weak in both volume and price. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities was only 247,200 square meters in the first week before the Spring Festival, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The national second - hand housing listing price index continued to decline, with a 7.0% year - on - year decrease in the first week before the festival [61]. - The land market was also sluggish. The premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2.42% in the first week before the festival, significantly lower than 9.86% in the same period last year [62]. 3.5. How will the Bond Market Price the Spring Festival Holiday Data? - The real - estate market is still in a downward pressure channel, with weak sales volume and price, especially in some first - tier cities where housing prices may decline at an accelerated pace. The consumer data shows a rapid recovery in volume but pressure on prices, continuing the "trading price for volume" trend. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is likely that the fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price" [77]. - In the current low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market. The view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [77].

%% %% 行业研究丨深度报告丨电气设备 [Table_Title] 美国加码 AIDC 自建电源，变压器&储能景气 有望加速——美国缺电研究系列三 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 此前，我们在《解能源桎梏，扬时代风帆——美国缺电深度研究》中指出，AI 电力需求高增下， 美国电力缺口不断放大，公用电网短期难以解决，导致电价不断上涨。2026 年以来，在立法层 面，FERC、州政府及区域输电组织加速推进大型负载并网政策落地，数据中心自建电源已是 大势所趋。本报告重点阐述北美数据中心供电及配储架构，量化测算自建电源对变压器及储能 需求的拉动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 袁澎 SAC：S0490524010001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_ ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 美国关税"内乱"，大类资产有何影响？ ——海外利率与大类资产配置周报 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春节假期中，海外关注三大事件：第一，美国最高法判决芬太尼关税和全球对等关税无效，特 朗普加征 15%全球关税应对，边际利好我国出口，预计今年增速中枢或在 5%以上。第二，美国 四季度 GDP 增速超预期回落，经济 K 型分化显著。第三，美伊分歧严重，中东局势再度升级。 大类资产多数共振回升，原油表现最为强势，商品仍然维持超高波动。综合考虑假期相关海外 事件，贵金属与原油短期最受益。长期而言，年内更看好黄金和铜。前者涨价根本逻辑没有变 化，而对于后者，在供给端中长期刚性的背景下，需求端叙事仍在，年内涨幅或超黄金。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马骏 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 美国关税"内乱"，大类资产有何影响？ 2] —— ...

[Table_Title] 如何展望节后的钢铁行情？ 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前钢铁板块是一个弹性大且可能超预期的板块。从高频数据上看，产业的预期无疑是比较低 的。今年冬储累库的力度为近年来最弱，五大钢材总库存的高度也处于近年低位，映射经过四 年多的下行期后，产业在心态上比较谨慎和悲观。但另一维度，低库存有助于缓解节后去库的 压力；价格底部或意味着价格的调整较为充分，成材从供需维度逐步达到弱平衡。由此，在基 本面和价格均充分筑底的状态下，若需求或供给侧受到催化，成材涨价的弹性或较为显著。当 前时点，成材价格上涨的概率或大于下跌的概率；且一旦涨价，涨价弹性值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [9] Core Insights - The PJM market in the U.S. has successfully navigated out of an "involution" phase, driven by both demand recovery from AI and significant supply reforms, including adjustments to capacity market supply curves that led to substantial increases in capacity prices [3][5] - The report suggests that implementing a reliable capacity mechanism in China could yield similar results, emphasizing that policy-driven capacity exit is crucial for resolving supply-demand imbalances [3][7] - The report highlights the importance of forced capacity exit, particularly focusing on "low-carbon" and "environmental" considerations, as effective strategies for addressing overcapacity in various industries [3][7] Summary by Sections Why Focus on U.S. Electricity "Anti-Involution"? - The U.S. officially entered a "national energy emergency" on January 20, 2025, with measures aimed at releasing energy supply, leading to a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the PJM market [5][18] - The PJM market is recognized as a model for electricity market reform globally and is seen as a potential reference for China's electricity market evolution [5][24] Origins and Solutions of "Involution" - The electricity sector's inherent characteristics lead to a persistent oversupply, creating conditions for "involution" [6][29] - The PJM market experienced a complete "involution" cycle from 2016 to 2025, with significant capacity price declines followed by recovery due to policy reforms and demand resurgence [6][7] Policy Initiatives and Challenges - The report discusses the necessity of policy interventions to facilitate the retirement of outdated power generation units, particularly coal and gas plants, to optimize supply capacity [52][53] - The PJM market has seen a significant reduction in coal-fired capacity, with a total of 12.89 million kilowatts retired from 2022 to 2023 [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality transitioning coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Huadian International, as well as green energy companies like Longyuan Power and Xintian Green Energy, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms [7][8]

%% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 电裕求新变，煤紧风正帆 %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 肖勇 赵超 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 叶如祯 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 庄越 刘亚辉 韦思宇 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490523080003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年用电需求增速放缓，火电电量近 10 年首次负增长，风电、光伏、火电新增装机创新高 的同时利用小时加速恶化。展望 2026 年，虽然绿电建设降速，但电量过剩问题依然较为严峻， 火电利用小时压力较大，看好价格机制改革的推进落实。结合电力供需平衡表对煤电的预 ...

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察（11）：液氢储运产业进展如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年液氢储运技术加速突破，液氢储运正从示范走向规模化应用。液化能耗持续优化，规模 化建设是降本的关键，可显著降低单位能耗与成本。在长距离运输场景中，液氢已展现出比高 压气态方式更优的经济性，运输效率大幅提升，这成为推动氢能产业链加速降本与规模化的重 要动力。展望"十五五"，预计氢能产业将向规模化、商业化深度演进。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 6 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2026-02 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2]. Core Insights - The military trade and military-to-civilian transition are highlighted as dominant sectors for investment opportunities [4]. - The gas turbine industry is expected to experience long-term high prosperity driven by domestic and international demand [6]. - China's reusable rocket technology has made significant progress, potentially leading to a low-cost era in commercial aerospace infrastructure [32]. - The construction of low-altitude economic infrastructure is anticipated to accelerate due to a joint initiative from five government departments [64]. - There is a strong outlook for the expansion of Chinese high-tech equipment in overseas defense markets [4]. Summary by Sections Gas Turbine Industry - The rise in electricity consumption due to artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to increase by 160% by 2027, with data centers requiring 500 TWh annually [9]. - Global gas turbine installations are expected to reach nearly 60 GW in 2024, with major players like Mitsubishi Power, GE, and Siemens holding over 75% market share [19]. - Orders for GE and Siemens energy businesses are showing significant growth, reflecting strong downstream demand for gas turbines [20]. - Siemens Energy anticipates a substantial increase in profit margins for its gas business, projecting a rise to 14%-16% by 2026 and further to 18%-20% by 2028 [23]. Reusable Rocket Technology - China's Long March 10 rocket has successfully completed key tests in reusable rocket technology, marking a significant advancement [34]. - The domestic commercial aerospace sector is under pressure to meet ambitious satellite deployment goals, with over 15,000 satellites planned by 2030 [39]. - SpaceX's Starship is rapidly maturing, which may disrupt existing space launch capabilities and enhance Starlink's deployment speed [42]. Low-altitude Economic Infrastructure - A joint initiative from five departments aims to strengthen information communication capabilities to support low-altitude infrastructure development [66]. - The low-altitude economy is expected to mirror the rapid growth seen in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with significant investments projected [69]. - The low-altitude intelligent network system is crucial for the application of low-altitude industry scenarios, integrating various technologies for effective communication and navigation [72]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace industry is advised to focus on investment opportunities related to space infrastructure construction, including satellite and rocket manufacturing [57]. - The industry is in a rapid expansion phase, with significant market potential driven by satellite deployment needs [63].