[Table_Title] 从海外燃机厂商跟踪看燃机景气度 联合研究丨专题报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 西门子能源、三菱重工与 GEV 2025Q3 业绩均实现强劲增长，营收、利润、订单等核心经营指 标全面向好，三家企业均顺势上调业绩展望或全年目标，后续增长确定性凸显。从核心业务支 撑来看，三家的燃机主业均呈现良性发展态势，新签订单持续攀升，在手订单储备充裕，有效 支撑营收稳步提升，且区域市场布局各有侧重、优势凸显。作为全球燃气轮机市场的主导力量， 三者合计占据超 70%产能，面对激增的行业需求，正同步推进产能扩张。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 王贺嘉 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUX462 屈奇 杨继虎 杨文建 SAC：S0490524070003 SAC：S0490525040001 SAC：S0490525070003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market decline is due to the constraint of the "impossible triangle," and before the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based opportunity. It is expected that the long - end yield will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The long - end yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2.2% - 2.4%, and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [2][8][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Bond Market's "Impossible Triangle" Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been falling continuously. After the People's Bank of China's unexpected "hawkish" Treasury bond trading operation in November 2025, the market is worried about the carrying pressure of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the supply of ultra - long bonds has become the core contradiction. From early November 2025 to January 7, 2026, the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose by about 20 basis points, and the price of the ultra - long - term Treasury bond futures (TL) fell by nearly 6 yuan. The current market decline is due to the "impossible triangle" constraint, that is, the following three cannot hold simultaneously: fiscal policy continues to lengthen the debt issuance duration, the central bank does not buy long - duration Treasury bonds, and does not change the interest - rate risk sensitivity index restrictions for banks [4][15]. 3.2 Outlook for the People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading Operations in 2026 It is expected that the People's Bank of China will continue to mainly buy short - duration Treasury bonds, maintaining a "high - frequency and small - volume" monthly operation mode, and guiding the market to reduce irrational expectations and excessive attention to this tool. Treasury bond trading will return to a normal and regular liquidity management tool, and its impact on the bond market will be neutral. Overseas experience shows that large - scale purchases of long - term bonds usually occur when the policy rate drops to a very low level or even zero. Since the domestic policy rate still has a 140 - basis - point space, it is too early for unconventional policies. The current Treasury bond trading operations of the Chinese central bank are more similar to Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) rather than Quantitative Easing (QE) [5][19][20]. 3.3 Outlook for Fiscal Debt Issuance Duration in 2026 Theoretically, when interest rates continue to adjust, local governments will shorten the debt issuance duration. However, this process may face two problems. First, it is a slow process for local governments to actively shorten the duration. The proportion of new local bonds in the stock of local bonds is not high, and the increase in interest expenditure caused by long - duration debt issuance is not significant in the short term, so the possibility of local governments significantly shortening the duration in the short term is low. Second, the term arrangement of local government bond issuance has high flexibility, and the Ministry of Finance does not restrict the scale and quantity of long - term local bond issuance. Therefore, the overall duration of local government stock debt is difficult to significantly shorten in a short time [23]. 3.4 Views on Adjusting Banks' Interest - Rate Sensitivity Indicators Although the adjustment of interest - rate sensitivity indicators can increase the bond - allocation capacity of large banks to some extent, the maturity mismatch trend between the asset and liability ends of banks has been deepening in recent years, and the adjustment of indicators is difficult to significantly expand the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds. According to the revision of the regulatory standards for interest - rate risk in the banking book by the Basel Committee in July 2024, the interest - rate parallel upward shock parameter should be lowered from 250BP to 225BP. Based on the data of the six major banks at the end of 2024, this parameter adjustment can release about 1.23% of the indicator space on average, corresponding to about 172.2 billion yuan of Tier - 1 capital. In the scenario of still considering a 250 - basis - point extreme shock and calculating based on the modified duration of 8.35 years of the stock local government bonds, it is expected to add about 824.568 billion yuan of bond - allocation capacity for large banks. However, the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities of banks is still deepening, with the liability side showing a trend of current - account and non - bank deposits, and the asset side showing a long - term trend, so the ability of banks to undertake long - term bonds is still limited [35]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market The bond market still faces the constraint of the "impossible triangle." Before the supply narrative of ultra - long bonds is fully priced, there is no obvious opportunity to bottom - fish in the bond market. The view of a weak and volatile long - end yield is maintained, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond may be further adjusted to 2.4%. After the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity, which may occur in the second half of the first quarter of 2026. At that time, the dynamic balance among fiscal debt issuance rhythm, central bank operation attitude, and bank allocation behavior will be the key to determining the market direction [8][41].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） [Table_Title] 产量同比高增，关注 2026 年经营拐点 research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 分析师及联系人 1 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 风险提示 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S04905250800 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company, China Chemical (601117.SH), has a broad layout in the chemical industry and is expected to contribute to performance in 2026 due to the recovery of the chemical sector driven by anti-involution trends [5][11]. - The company's asset quality is significantly undervalued, with approximately 80% of new orders coming from chemical engineering, and a good repayment situation, indicating a strong financial position [11]. - The company's operational quality is high, with a mid-term dividend reflecting shareholder returns, and an expected improvement in performance due to rising chemical product prices [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - China Chemical has signed new orders worth 352.6 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with chemical engineering orders increasing by 14% [11]. - The company has a total share capital of 610.688 million shares, with a current stock price of 7.75 yuan [7]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.346 billion yuan in 2025, with projected profits of 7.058 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.806 billion yuan in 2027 [11]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.46, 6.71, and 6.06 respectively, indicating the company is still undervalued [11]. Market Position - The company has a significant presence in the chemical industry, with projects like the nylon new materials project expected to break technical barriers and create a complete nylon 66 chip industry chain [11]. - The company has a strong cash position with 38 billion yuan in cash and 17 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, providing a safety margin [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total electricity generation of 1,269.32 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.32%. The on-grid electricity volume is projected to be 1,258.58 billion kWh, also up by 13.36% year-on-year [6][12] - The water inflow in the Lancang River basin is expected to be 15% higher than the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in electricity generation. The company anticipates a strong performance in the fourth quarter, with a projected electricity generation of 306.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.01% [2][12] - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the full operation of TB Hydropower Station and Huanliangbao Hydropower Station, which will enhance overall efficiency and growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to complete a hydropower generation of 916.49 billion kWh, a 10.35% increase year-on-year, with the fourth quarter alone generating 291.66 billion kWh, up 17.26% year-on-year [2][12] - The company’s overall electricity generation is expected to grow by 13.32% year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow and operational efficiency [6][12] Financial Outlook - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 0.50 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.30, 18.13, and 17.26 [12][16] - The financial performance is expected to benefit from reduced costs and optimized financial expenses, despite potential pressures from market electricity prices [12] Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing diversification by investing in renewable energy and thermal power projects, aiming for sustainable development through a "water-wind-solar integration" approach [12] - The company has increased its renewable energy capacity to 5.96 million kW, a rise of 2.26 million kW compared to the end of 2024 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The Chinese large model industry is transitioning from a "hundred model war" to a tier of leading players by 2025, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax representing different commercialization paths. Both companies are set to IPO in Hong Kong on January 8 and 9, 2026, marking them as the first publicly listed large model companies globally, which serves as a significant industry benchmark [4][19] - The development paradigm of large models is moving into a new phase, shifting from early parameter competition and task performance comparisons to a core focus on a "scene-data-model" positive cycle. The ability to deeply root in real scenarios, provide smoother product experiences, and foster tighter ecological collaboration will determine competitive advantages in the next stage [4][9] Summary by Sections Historical Review: Genetic Differences Determine Commercialization Paths - Zhipu AI, founded in 2019, is one of the earliest companies in China to develop large language models (LLMs) and the first to release a self-developed large model. Its development is characterized by a strong platform thinking and aims to maximize the utilization of its technical assets through an ecosystem of developers [7][20] - MiniMax, established in 2021, has a strong "commercial product" gene, with a team background in gaming and content communities, giving it advantages in user experience (UX), retention rates, and multimodal interactions [7][42] Current Status: Commercialization Progress of Zhipu and MiniMax - Zhipu focuses on general large model capabilities, emphasizing deep integration with enterprise business processes, positioning itself as an "AI infrastructure provider." In contrast, MiniMax aims to productize model capabilities and build a user ecosystem around native AI applications, positioning itself as an "AI native content and interaction platform" [8] - Zhipu's revenue growth relies on deep engagement with B-end clients and long-term partnerships, while MiniMax's commercialization depends on user scale and activity on the C-end, utilizing subscription models and value-added services for monetization [8] Future: Moving Towards a "Scene-Data-Model" Positive Cycle - The key to future development is constructing a closed loop driven by real scene demands, generating high-quality data that continuously feeds back to optimize model capabilities, ultimately serving the scenes more accurately and creating a dual value loop of commercial and technical benefits [9] - Both Zhipu and MiniMax have entered the "scene-data-model" positive cycle, with Zhipu focusing on B-end clients and edge entry points, while MiniMax concentrates on creative content generation and enterprise automation [9]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows strong resilience despite unprecedented tariff and immigration policies under Trump 2.0, characterized by a balanced job market and moderate inflation[4] - The real GDP, excluding net exports and inventory changes, has been strengthening quarter by quarter, supported by personal consumption[18] Monetary Policy - Limited re-inflation pressure is expected, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates by approximately 50 basis points (BP) in Q2 2026[9] - The Fed has already reduced rates by 75 BP since September 2025, and the potential for further cuts is influenced by the weak balance in the job market[40] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 7% in FY 2026, primarily due to tax cuts and increased spending in military and homeland security[10] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a deficit increase of about $277.3 billion, with $240.3 billion allocated for tax reductions for households and businesses[49] Economic Growth Drivers - Private consumption and AI-related investments are expected to be the main drivers of economic growth in 2026, with a gradual improvement anticipated throughout the year[11] - The "Great Beautiful Act" will provide tax refunds primarily in February and March, which will support consumer spending starting in Q2 2026[11] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected effects of tariff policies, deterioration in the job market, and uncertainty regarding the sustainability of AI investment growth[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company, Juxing Technology, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 20%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 2.309 to 2.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% to 15.2% [2][6]. - The revenue for the year is expected to remain flat year-on-year, supported by new production capacities in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as significant growth in electric tool products. The company’s high level of internationalization and product innovation efficiency has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profitability, while direct sales through cross-border e-commerce and increased sales of new products have effectively improved gross margins. Looking ahead to 2026, the inventory cycle and new product cycle are expected to resonate, with a high likelihood of an upward trend in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles, indicating a return to faster growth for the company [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 264 to 609 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -28.40% to 65.46%, and a median of 436 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 18.53%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 273 to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -26.38% to 66.69%, and a median of 446 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [6][12]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 2.592 billion yuan in 2025, 3.101 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.720 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times respectively [12]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a recent increase in new orders, which is expected to gradually reflect in revenue. Despite some negative impacts from tariffs on domestic production capacity, overseas production capacity has returned to normal post-Q2, and the additional tariff costs have raised average industry prices, leading to a decline in industry sales [12]. - The electric tool segment is expected to see significant growth, becoming an important growth driver for the company. The company is continuously expanding its product categories and areas, with new products expected to gradually contribute to revenue growth [12]. Industry Outlook - As of January 2, 2026, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.15%, down from 6.18%, which is expected to further stimulate housing demand and promote steady growth in home sales. The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of a rebound in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles [12].

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] Neuralink 将开启大规模量产，脑机接口产业商 业化落地有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 北京时间 1 月 1 日上午，埃隆・马斯克在社交媒体 X 上表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 今年 将开始实现"大规模生产"脑机接口设备，并转向更精简、几乎完全自动化的外科手术流程。 当前时点，以 Neuralink 为代表的脑机接口产业正通过技术突破推动其商业化进展。在其规模 化量产预期和技术突破的催化下，脑机接口产业商业化落地有望加速，惠及全产业链。建议关 注三条主线：1、侵入式脑机接口海外先进产业链的国内映射标的；2、非侵入式脑机接口在消 费场景的产品落地相关标的；3、脑机接口下游应用端相关标的。 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has released the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models, simulation tools, and datasets aimed at advancing the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles. This initiative is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced intelligent driving technologies [2][4]. - The intelligent driving industry is anticipated to benefit from new technologies, leading to accelerated scaling and commercialization, positively impacting the entire industry chain. The report suggests focusing on intelligent driving hardware providers and autonomous driving operation platforms like Robotaxi [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - NVIDIA launched the Alpamayo series on January 5, 2026, to promote the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles [4]. Event Commentary - The Alpamayo model introduces a visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning model for assisted driving decisions, showcasing the logic behind each decision and identifying unique driving situations that may not occur during normal driving. The model is based on a 10 billion parameter architecture, with future models expected to have larger parameter scales and enhanced reasoning capabilities [10]. - NVIDIA also released the open-source simulation framework AlpaSim and a large-scale open dataset containing over 1,700 hours of driving data, which supports high-fidelity autonomous driving development and rapid validation and strategy optimization [10]. - The Alpamayo model has garnered significant attention from leading companies in the mobility sector, such as Lucid, Jaguar Land Rover, and Uber, as well as experts from institutions like S&P Global and Berkeley DeepDrive. The core value of Alpamayo lies in advancing physical AI development and addressing unpredictable driving scenarios [10].