证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Recent Key Events - Tencent and Baidu announced their Spring Festival red envelope distribution plans, with Tencent distributing 1 billion RMB and Baidu offering 500 million RMB in red envelopes [1][8] - Alibaba launched the Qwen3-Max-Thinking model, which has over 1 trillion parameters and 36 trillion tokens of pre-training data, marking it as their largest and most capable model to date [2][9] - The U.S. and China are actively promoting the development of the autonomous driving industry, with significant policy initiatives and pilot programs being launched [3][10] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index rose from 25,631 points at the end of December 2025 to 27,827 points by January 28, 2026, reflecting an increase of 8.6% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 7.0% during the same period, with significant gains in sectors such as durable consumer goods and semiconductors [15][11] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike, China Qinfa, and Power Development [21] - Pay attention to resource-rich and cost-advantaged non-ferrous metal companies like China Aluminum [21] - Consider internet companies benefiting from AI model iterations and ecosystem improvements, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Kuaishou [21] - Look for undervalued consumer electronics component firms with strong growth potential, such as Q Technology and AAC Technologies [21] - Monitor Robotaxi operators like WeRide and Pony.ai, which are expected to benefit from the high demand for autonomous driving [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike (2423.HK) is positioned as a restructuring force in the brokerage service industry, with significant growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions expected [22] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is set to benefit from improved coal quality and rising coal prices, with a focus on expanding its operations in Indonesia [24][27] - Power Development (1277.HK) is expanding its overseas operations and has secured a partnership for a heavy mineral project, which is expected to significantly boost its profitability [30][31] - China Aluminum (2600.HK) maintains a strong position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a comprehensive industry chain and improved profitability due to rising aluminum prices [34][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the Qwen model and is seeing growth in its cloud services and e-commerce segments [38][39] - Tencent (0700.HK) is launching new AI-driven social features and has reported strong revenue growth, particularly in gaming and advertising [43][44]

- The "Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart" model is constructed based on multi-dimensional indicators including liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flow, technical trends, and crowding sentiment. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macroeconomic Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1, 1] to assess market conditions [1][6][9] - **Liquidity Factors**: - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Calculated using the average change in central bank monetary policy tool rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor > 0, monetary policy is deemed expansionary; if < 0, it is deemed contractionary. Current score: 1 [12][14] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, calculated as deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smoothed and standardized using z-score. If the factor < -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a 120-day future easing environment, scoring 1; if > 1.5 standard deviations, scoring -1. Current score: 0 [15][16] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Derived from monthly long-term loan data, calculated as the year-on-year change in the past 12 months' increment. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [18][20] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Captures whether credit metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as (new RMB loans - median forecast)/forecast standard deviation. If the factor > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores 1; if < -1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: -1 [22][23] - **Economic Factors**: - **Growth Direction Factor**: Based on PMI data (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and Caixin manufacturing PMI), calculated as the year-on-year change in the 12-month average. If the factor rises compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [26][28] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Captures whether growth metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as (PMI - median forecast)/forecast standard deviation. If the factor > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores 1; if < -1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: 1 [29][31] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Calculated as 0.5 × smoothed CPI year-on-year + 0.5 × raw PPI year-on-year. If the factor decreases compared to three months ago, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [32][33] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Captures whether inflation metrics significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, calculated as the average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations. If the factor < -1.5, it scores 1; if > 1.5 standard deviations, it scores -1. Current score: -1 [35][37] - **Valuation Factors**: - **Shiller ERP**: Calculated as 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, standardized using z-score over the past six years. Current score: -0.10 [38][42] - **PB**: Processed as PB × (-1), standardized using z-score over the past six years, truncated at ±1.5 standard deviations. Current score: -0.75 [40][41] - **AIAE**: Represents aggregate investor allocation to equities, calculated as total market cap/(total market cap + total debt), standardized using z-score over the past six years. Current score: -1.00 [43][44] - **Capital Flow Factors**: - **Margin Financing Increment**: Calculated as the difference between 120-day average increment and 240-day average increment of margin financing balance. If the short-term increment exceeds the long-term increment, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [46][48] - **Turnover Trend**: Calculated as log turnover moving average distance = ma120/ma240 - 1. If the maximum distance of 10, 30, and 60 days is positive, it scores 1; if the minimum distance is negative, it scores -1. Current score: 1 [49][50] - **China Sovereign CDS Spread**: Represents overseas investors' pricing of China's economic and sovereign credit risk. If the smoothed 20-day difference of CDS spread < 0, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: 1 [52][54] - **Overseas Risk Aversion Index**: Captures overseas market risk preference using Citi RAI Index. If the smoothed 20-day difference < 0, it scores 1; otherwise, -1. Current score: -1 [55][56] - **Technical Factors**: - **Price Trend**: Calculated as moving average distance (ma120/ma240 - 1). Trend direction scores 1 if > 0, otherwise -1. Trend strength scores 1 if max(20) = max(60), otherwise -1. Comprehensive score = (direction score + strength score)/2. Current score: 1 [57][59] - **New Highs and Lows**: Calculated as the moving average of the difference between new lows and new highs among index constituents over the past year. If the smoothed difference > 0, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [60][62] - **Crowding Sentiment Factors**: - **Option Implied Premium**: Derived from the implied premium of options based on put-call parity. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile > 70%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [64][68] - **Option VIX**: Reflects expected volatility of options. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile > 70%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [65][67] - **Option SKEW**: Reflects expected skewness of options. If 50ETF 5-day return > 0 and percentile < 30%, it scores -1; otherwise, 1. Current score: -1 [69][70] - **Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation**: Calculated as (convertible bond price/model price - 1), standardized using z-score over the past three years. Higher deviation indicates higher crowding sentiment, scoring lower. Current score: -1 [71][72] - **Factor Testing Results**: - Liquidity factors: Monetary direction (1), Monetary strength (0), Credit direction (1), Credit strength (-1) [12][15][18][22] - Economic factors: Growth direction (-1), Growth strength (1), Inflation direction (-1), Inflation strength (-1) [26][29][32][35] - Valuation factors: Shiller ERP (-0.10), PB (-0.75), AIAE (-1.00) [38][40][43] - Capital flow factors: Margin financing increment (1), Turnover trend (1), China Sovereign CDS spread (1), Overseas risk aversion index (-1) [46][49][52][55] - Technical factors: Price trend (1), New highs and lows (-1) [57][60] - Crowding sentiment factors: Option implied premium (-1), Option VIX (-1), Option SKEW (-1), Convertible bond pricing deviation (-1) [64][65][69][71]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of the Spring Festival peak season for liquor sales, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant improvements in sales and pricing, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and expectations [1][2]. - In the food sector, there is an anticipated boost in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, with specific focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Ancient Well, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from pre-holiday stocking, with companies like Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods positioned to capitalize on the festive demand [2][4]. - Anjuke is focusing on new product launches and expanding into overseas markets, while Qiaqia Foods is set to improve profitability in 2026 due to lower raw material costs [4][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies such as H&H International Holdings and Nongfu Spring highlighted for their potential [1][2]. - The emphasis is placed on the recovery of the restaurant and dairy sectors, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to show positive performance [1][2].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 宏观点评 1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后 事件：2026 年 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%（前值 50.1%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4%（前值 50.2%）；综合 PMI 为 49.8%（前值 50.7%）。 核心观点：1 月制造业 PMI 重回线下，弱于季节性，分项看，供需均 回落、内需和外需回落更多，尤其是新订单指数；服务业、建筑业景气 均超季节性回落，建筑业大降，应主要与冷空气南下影响施工进度，以 及春节假期临近等因素有关。倾向于认为，当前经济仍属于"弱现实"、 实际下行压力仍大，本质还是内需不足、信心偏弱。往后看，2026 年 大方向已定、实现"十五五"良好开局是硬要求，短期紧盯一季度"开 门红"的相关举措。预计 2026 年 GDP 目标可能定为 4.5-5%、仍属偏 高水平，指向政策需要偏积极、偏扩张、偏刺激。短期紧盯 4 大方面： 1）地方两会，目前进程过半，22 地集中在 1 月召开，重点关注各地 GDP 目标（截至 01/28，20 地 GDP 目标加权平均 5%、5 大经济大省 均下 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company has established a solid competitive position in the optical communication chip market and possesses the capability to evolve towards higher speed and integration levels [3]. - The demand for optical communication chips is expected to continue rising due to the expansion of AI computing centers, cloud computing, and upgrades in terminal applications [2]. - The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering various application scenarios, including data centers and 5G wireless networks, and is actively developing high-end products for future growth [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been focused on optical communication chip research and development for over 20 years, gradually building a complete product system that includes transceiver chips, transimpedance amplifier chips, limiting amplifier chips, and laser driver chips [1]. - Revenue from the optical communication transceiver chips has consistently contributed over 80% of total income, indicating a stable core business [1]. 2. Market Demand and Growth Potential - The optical communication chip industry is experiencing structural upgrades, with increasing demand for high-speed products driven by advancements in technology [2]. - The company has achieved a leading market share in the 10Gbps and below segment, ranking first in China and second globally, while also expanding into the 25G and 100G product lines [2][3]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.13 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.11 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted revenue of 5.0 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22.5% [10][27]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 0.72 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.2% [10][27]. 4. Investment Strategy and Future Outlook - The company plans to utilize raised funds for projects focused on next-generation access network chips, automotive chips, and high-speed optical communication chips, with a total investment of 8.09 billion yuan [26]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for optical modules and the rapid expansion into high-end chip markets, reinforcing its long-term growth potential [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the engineered wood panel industry, benefiting from the growing demand for customized furniture and the shift towards B-end customers [3][4]. - The company has a strong reputation for environmental sustainability, with its products meeting high standards for formaldehyde emissions, which is a key consideration for consumers [2]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings by enhancing the sales of auxiliary materials alongside its main panel products, which is expected to increase customer value and profit margins [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, 德华兔宝宝装饰新材股份有限公司 (Rabbit Baby), was established in 1992 and is the first listed company in China's decorative panel industry, focusing on decorative materials and customized home products [14]. Market Dynamics - The engineered wood panel industry is entering a mature phase, with a projected consumption volume of 330 million cubic meters in China by 2024, leading to a market size of approximately 725.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company holds a market share of 1.75% in the overall engineered wood panel market and 5.03% in the furniture panel market, indicating potential for growth as consumer preferences shift towards established brands [1]. Environmental Commitment - The company emphasizes its commitment to environmental standards, achieving ENF+ grade for its panels, which corresponds to a formaldehyde emission limit of one-third of the recognized highest standard [2]. Business Strategy - The company is transitioning its sales channels towards B-end customers, such as custom furniture manufacturers and home decoration companies, which are expected to drive growth in the customized furniture segment [3]. - The penetration rate of customized furniture is estimated to be at least 60%, with the corresponding market size exceeding 150 billion yuan, where the company currently holds about 4% market share [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 764 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.046 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an expected annual growth rate exceeding 21% [4]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow and generous dividend policy, with a cash flow from operating activities of 1.152 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [38].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the engineered wood panel industry, benefiting from the growing demand for customized furniture and the shift towards B-end customers [3][4]. - The engineered wood panel market in China is projected to reach a consumption volume of 330 million cubic meters by 2024, with a market size of approximately 725.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company has a strong reputation for environmental sustainability, achieving a formaldehyde release level that is one-third of the industry's highest recognized standard [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, 德华兔宝宝装饰新材股份有限公司 (Rabbit Baby), was established in 1992 and is the first listed company in China's decorative panel industry, focusing on decorative materials and customized home furnishings [14]. Market Dynamics - The engineered wood panel industry is entering a mature phase, with significant growth opportunities in specific segments like particleboard, driven by the rapid development of the custom furniture sector [1][40]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with over 8,600 companies operating in the sector as of the end of 2024 [1]. Environmental Commitment - The company emphasizes its commitment to environmental standards, which has become a primary criterion for consumers when selecting wood panels [2]. Business Strategy - The company is actively transforming its sales channels towards B-end customers, focusing on partnerships with small and medium-sized custom furniture manufacturers to enhance brand differentiation [3]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings to include high-margin auxiliary materials, which are expected to drive revenue growth [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 764 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.046 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected annual growth rate exceeding 21% [4]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow and generous dividend policy, with a historical dividend payout ratio exceeding 50% [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the companies involved in the health supplement industry, specifically for Xianle Health and Tongchen Beijian [6]. Core Insights - The health supplement industry is experiencing accelerated development driven by AI applications, enabling personalized and efficient nutrition solutions. Companies are leveraging AI for various functions, including ingredient discovery, formula design, market insights, and compliance verification [2][4]. - Xianle Health is actively integrating AI into its operations, collaborating with DeepSeek to create an AI-driven model for personalized nutrition management, enhancing consumer engagement through tailored health packages [3]. - H&H International Holdings is utilizing AI to provide precise market responses and consumer insights, transitioning from passive treatment to proactive health management [3]. - Tongchen Beijian is exploring AI applications in management and marketing, aiming to strengthen brand presence through innovative advertising strategies [4]. - The report suggests that companies that adopt AI technology early in the health supplement sector will benefit from improved research efficiency, new product development, and market positioning [4]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Health Supplements - AI is transforming the health supplement industry by providing personalized nutrition solutions, optimizing ingredient selection, and enhancing marketing strategies [2][4]. - Companies like Xianle Health and H&H International are at the forefront of this transformation, utilizing AI for consumer insights and product development [3]. Company-Specific Developments - Xianle Health is focusing on AI-driven personalized nutrition, enhancing consumer engagement through tailored health packages [3]. - H&H International is building an AI-enabled service model to better meet consumer health management needs [3]. - Tongchen Beijian is implementing AI in its marketing efforts to strengthen brand recognition and consumer connection [4]. - Jia Biyou is transitioning towards a smart health solution platform, leveraging AI to provide personalized nutrition interventions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the health supplement sector driven by AI, recommending investors to focus on companies like Xianle Health, H&H International, Tongchen Beijian, and Jia Biyou for potential investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the probiotic industry, highlighting its high growth potential and the emerging opportunities within the AKK strain segment [5]. Core Insights - The probiotic industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.2% from 2023 to 2025, driven primarily by price increases rather than volume growth, with average price growth at 11.3% and volume growth at 2.4% [2]. - The AKK probiotic strain is expected to experience significant growth opportunities, particularly in areas such as metabolic health, immune health, and anti-aging, as consumer needs become more specific [2][5]. - Companies like Xianle Health, Junyao Health, and Beijia Clean are identified as key players to watch due to their innovative products and market strategies [5]. Summary by Sections Probiotic Industry Overview - The probiotic industry is characterized by double-digit growth, with strong efficacy and product combinations driving price increases [2]. - The market is seeing a shift towards products that address specific consumer pain points, such as sleep and immune enhancement [2]. Key Companies - **Xianle Health**: Launched its first self-developed probiotic, AKK ONE, which received GRAS certification, enhancing its market position in weight management and metabolic health [3]. - **Junyao Health**: Offers high-quality AKK strains with optimized production processes, achieving significant improvements in production efficiency and product quality [4]. - **Beijia Clean**: Acquired a stake in Shanen Kang, leveraging its early mover advantage in the AKK strain market with a robust patent portfolio [5]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the increasing competition in the probiotic sector, with a focus on the AKK strain's potential to meet growing consumer demands for health benefits [5]. - The report notes that the AKK strain's sales on major e-commerce platforms are expected to rise significantly, indicating a burgeoning market opportunity [2].