宏观点评 政策半月观—各部委各地"开年第一会"的信号 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 01 18 年 月 日 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策聚焦 2026 年"开好头、起好步"，具体 有 6 大焦点：一是央行、证监会、商务部等部门陆续召开"开年第一会"， 分别聚焦扩内需、稳经济、综合惩治资本市场财务造假以及强化教育科 技人才支撑；二是开年中央密集调研河南、内蒙古、广东等地，聚焦"菜 篮子"稳产保供、新质生产力、"十五五"良好开局；三是 1.15 央行宣 布推出一揽子货币金融政策，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个 百分点、并增加部分工具额度，央行也表示降准降息"仍有空间"，进一 步明确了货币宽松大方向，但节奏仍有待观察；四是开年以来 2 场国常 会均围绕促消费，包括 1.9 国常会部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子 政策，1.16 国常会研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消费举措；五是 各地"开年第一会"定调，上海、辽宁、福建等地均围绕优化营商环境， 海南和重庆聚焦区域建设，湖北聚焦科技创新、河南和云南等地推进重 大项目，广东和江苏聚焦细化落实、靠前发力；六是中央继续松地产 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 全球海运煤炭：贸易量减分化，欧盟进口持续收缩 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，原油价格方面，布伦 特原油期货结算价为 64.13 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.79 美元/桶（+1.25%）； WTI 原油期货结算价为 59.44 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.32 美元/桶 （+0.54%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.35 美元/百 万英热，较上周上涨 1.71 美元/百万英热（+17.72%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气 期货结算价 37.2 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 8.78 欧元/兆瓦时（+30.87%）； 美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 3.11 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.06 美元 /百万英热（-1.89%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到 岸价 96.7 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.2 美元/吨（+0.2%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤 炭（6000K）FOB 价 111.6 美元/吨，较上周上涨 4.3 美元/吨（+4.0%）； ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market's short-term adjustment may have reached its limit, with a potential new upward trend expected to begin soon, supported by healthy market dynamics and a majority of sectors showing signs of recovery [6][12][17] - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation, with policies encouraging increased equity asset allocation in bank wealth management, which is expected to drive long-term growth despite short-term challenges [17][18][21] - The geothermal energy sector in the U.S. is experiencing increased demand driven by data centers, with significant investment opportunities identified in companies like Kaishan [23][24] Group 2 - The coal industry is facing a mixed outlook, with global shipping volumes expected to decline, particularly in the EU, while some regions like South Africa and Southeast Asia show growth [26][27] - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing advancements with the commercialization of innovative drugs like RAY1225, which is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness for companies like Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical [29] - The textile and apparel industry is projected to see a cautious recovery in orders, with recommendations for companies that demonstrate strong operational capabilities and market positioning [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies including Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, Anta Sports, and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 15x for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [2][9][26]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing resilience while others face challenges due to fluctuating orders and profit margins [1][3]. - The report anticipates a cautious improvement in downstream orders for 2026, supported by healthy inventory levels and strong sales performance from certain brands [2][20]. - The sportswear segment is expected to outperform the broader apparel market, driven by strong inventory management and long-term growth potential [3][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - Several apparel manufacturers reported their 2025 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +3.2%, and +0.5% respectively for the full year [1][12]. - In December 2025, Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group reported monthly revenues down by -0.6%, -3.6%, and -3.7% respectively [1][12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a weakening industry sentiment since H2 2025, with Southeast Asia's export performance continuing to surpass that of China [2][17]. - For 2026, the report expects cautious improvements in orders, with a focus on core brand performance and inventory management [20]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with Shenzhou International expected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in 2025 and Huayi Group's profits anticipated to recover gradually [2][25]. - Other companies to watch include Wei Xing Co., Kai Run Co., and Jing Yuan International, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in orders [2][26]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 0.57% while the textile manufacturing sector fell by 0.77% [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including 惠城环保 (Huicheng Environmental), 高能环境 (Gaoneng Environment), and 洪城环境 (Hongcheng Environment) [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of multi-dimensional policy dividends that accelerate the expansion of solid waste recycling, benefiting leading companies in the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [1]. - The introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Used Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" aims to enhance resource recycling efficiency and support the green, low-carbon development of the new energy vehicle industry [11]. - The "Hunan Province Zero Carbon Factory Construction Plan" focuses on low-carbon transformation across manufacturing processes, establishing a foundation for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality [17]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report emphasizes the favorable policies for solid waste management and the expected growth in demand for resource recycling, recommending attention to leading companies in solid waste management such as 格林美 (Greeenme) and environmental monitoring firms like 雪迪龙 (Xuedilong) [1][12]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by historically low interest rates, presents opportunities for high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies [2][19]. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed, with a weekly decline of 1.74%, lagging behind the broader market indices [3][22]. - The report notes that the solid waste sub-sector showed a positive growth of 1.53%, while other sub-sectors like air quality and energy-saving experienced declines [3][22]. Key Announcements - The report outlines significant policy developments, including the launch of the "Industrial Internet Platform High-Quality Development Action Plan" and the "Comprehensive Green Manufacturing System Action Plan" in Sichuan Province, aimed at enhancing industrial sustainability [33][34]. - The report also mentions the carbon emissions trading market, with a total transaction volume of 8.7 billion tons and a cumulative transaction value of 582 billion yuan as of January 16, 2026 [2]. Focused Companies - 惠城环保 (Huicheng Environmental) is recognized for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste projects and the recycling of waste plastics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.22 yuan in 2024 to 4.05 yuan in 2027 [4]. - 高能环境 (Gaoneng Environment) aims to become a leading global environmental service provider, with a focus on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental engineering [21]. - 洪城环境 (Hongcheng Environment) is highlighted for its consistent performance and high dividend yield, with a projected EPS of 1.03 yuan in 2026 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has generally recovered this week, with short - term and credit bonds performing stronger. The short - term and credit interest rates have declined significantly, while the long - term recovery is relatively mild [1][8]. - Although there were concerns about bond supply and bank deposit outflows at the beginning of the year, the actual situation shows that the supply of government bonds is not fast, and banks do not have obvious liability gaps. The current trading structure shows that non - banks are reducing their positions, while banks and insurance companies are increasing their allocations [1][5][8]. - The short - term bond market may fluctuate, and the space for further adjustment is limited. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to increase allocations, which may occur in late January or later. As the market develops, the bond market may start to recover in the middle and later stages of the first quarter, and at that time, it is possible to consider gradually lengthening the duration [5][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Level - The supply rhythm of government bonds at the beginning of the year is not fast. In the first three weeks, the total net financing of government bonds was 886.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than 970.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. The net financing of local bonds was 386.4 billion yuan, also lower than 472.1 billion yuan in the same period in 2025 [1][8]. - The term structure of bond issuance remains long. Among the 424.1 billion yuan of local bonds issued in the first three weeks of this year, bonds with a term of more than 10 years accounted for 58%, and the proportion of 30 - year bonds was 33.8%, higher than 21.0% last year [1][8]. Demand Level - The market was once worried that bank deposit outflows would lead to insufficient allocation power. Due to the maturity of high - interest time deposits and the strong performance of the stock market, there were concerns about deposit outflows to non - banks, time deposit current - account conversion, and non - bank conversion [2][11]. - However, from the perspective of certificates of deposit (CDs), banks have not shown obvious liability shortages or liquidity indicator pressures. In the past four weeks, banks have had a net repayment of 885.5 billion yuan of CDs, and they have been increasing their allocation of CDs since the beginning of the year [3][14]. - The repurchase volume and interest rates also show that there is no large gap in bank liabilities. Although the recent capital price has risen slightly from the low at the beginning of the year, it is still at a low level. The overnight interest rate of 1.3% - 1.4% and the 7 - day inter - bank lending rate of 1.4% - 1.5% are significantly lower than previous years, and the seasonal increase is weaker. The inter - bank pledged repurchase trading volume is 8.76 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years, indicating that the capital supply in the market is more abundant [4][15]. Trading Structure - Currently, non - banks are reducing their positions, while banks and insurance companies are increasing their allocations. Non - banks are shifting their positions from long - term bonds to credit bonds, which has promoted the strength of secondary capital bonds (Second - tier and Perpetual bonds, "二永") and credit bonds [5][17]. - The credit spreads have been compressed to a relatively low level. The spreads between 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds, AAA urban investment bonds, and treasury bonds are only 56bps and 39bps respectively, both at relatively low levels in the past few years. The spread between 30 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds has reached a high of 106bps, and the space for further compression of credit spreads may be limited [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others [9]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a potential turning point driven by AI reshaping demand in the U.S. and supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring "black swan" events that could significantly impact coal prices, particularly changes in domestic policies and increased demand from the U.S. [3]. - The report indicates that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamentals but could see price increases if unexpected events occur [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3690.69 points, down 3.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.77 percentage points [4][74]. - As of January 16, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3 RMB/ton [30]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption remains strong, and pre-holiday production cuts are expected, suggesting a continued upward trend in coal prices [15]. - **Coking Coal**: Increased purchasing by steel companies is driving coking coal prices higher, with significant price increases noted in various coal types [35][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the coal market is mixed, with some participants optimistic about future demand due to weather changes and others concerned about weak terminal demand [32]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and others, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [11][10]. - Companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa are highlighted for their potential recovery and growth prospects [11]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen significant increases, with low-sulfur coking coal prices rising by 100 RMB/ton week-on-week [35]. - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has decreased, indicating pressure on margins for some producers [72]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of thermal coal at major ports was reported at 6440 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6 million tons [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches, which typically affects supply [15]. Conclusion - The coal industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for price increases driven by demand shifts and supply constraints. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong market positions and growth potential in this evolving landscape [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing government support for the real estate sector through tax policies aimed at reducing transaction costs and promoting housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [10][11] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.1% in new home transactions across 30 cities [2][23] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are extensions of previous measures and suggests that more substantial policy interventions may be necessary to stimulate the market [11] Summary by Sections Policy Review - The government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for residents purchasing new homes after selling their existing properties, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% to support the commercial real estate market [11] Market Performance - The real estate index decreased by 3.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.95 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [2][12] - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 119.1 million square meters this week, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous week but a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [23][25] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 15 cities totaled 205.8 million square meters, showing a 3.8% increase week-on-week but a 7.6% decline year-on-year [31] Credit Market - A total of 14 corporate bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance of 12.11 billion yuan, marking a 54.8% increase from the previous week [3][40] - The net financing amount for the week was -2.7 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing compared to the previous week [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks, particularly those of leading state-owned enterprises and quality private firms, as they are expected to benefit from the improving competitive landscape [3] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the building materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Pona Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Building Materials [7]. Core Insights - The building materials sector has experienced a decline of 1.61% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, with cement prices dropping by 1.96% and glass manufacturing down by 5.42% [10]. - The People's Bank of China has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in municipal engineering projects due to improved government debt policies, which may accelerate the implementation of municipal pipeline and seismic isolation projects [1]. - The glass fiber market shows strong demand, particularly in wind energy, with expectations for continued growth in high-end demand [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the national cement price index is 347.08 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.645 million tons, down 2.67% [15]. - The cement clinker kiln capacity utilization rate is at 40.7%, down 2.83 percentage points from last week, indicating a shift towards a traditional off-season as the Spring Festival approaches [15][28]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of January 15, 2026, is 1138.27 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.46% increase from the previous week, while inventory levels have decreased by 209,000 weight boxes [32]. - The report notes that the market is facing risks from speculative inventory transfers and insufficient demand support, with expectations for a slowdown in demand [32]. Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The report indicates that the glass fiber market remains stable, with no significant changes in production capacity, while demand is expected to be weak due to the traditional off-season [5]. - The average price of non-alkali yarn remains stable, with expectations for price increases in high-end electronic yarn products [5]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market shows limited price fluctuations, with a weekly production of 2369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [6]. - The average production cost is 112,500 CNY/ton, indicating a negative gross profit margin, highlighting the industry's profit challenges [6]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Yao Pi Glass (EPS: 0.12 CNY), Yinlong Co. (EPS: 0.28 CNY), Pona Co. (EPS: 0.12 CNY), San Ke Tree (EPS: 0.45 CNY), and Bei Xin Building Materials (EPS: 2.14 CNY) [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].