口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量 事件：1）3 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 564.74 亿元/同比 -16.38%，归母净利润 42.67 亿元/同比-36.44%，扣非归母净利润 41.44 亿元/同比- 37.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 134.53 亿元/同比-19.46%，归母净利润 3.48 亿 元/同比-76.93%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元/同比-81.42%。2）发布 2024 年度利润 分配方案，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 10.5 元，共计 21.7 亿元，占据归母净利润 50.91%。 消费意愿阶段趋缓，离岛免税显著承压，口岸免税利润有所优化。2024 年海南接待游 客总人数 9721 万人次/同比+8.0%，全年离岛免税购物金额 309.4 亿元/同比-29.3%。 其中实际购物人次 568.3 万人次/同比-15.9%，据计算人均消费为 5444 元/同比- 15.9%。2024 全年公司实现营业收入 564.7 亿元/同比-16.38%，其中：1）分类型看， 2024 年免税商品/有税商品分别实现营业收入 386.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [1] - The average profit per head for pigs is estimated at 308 yuan, maintaining an industry-leading level due to decreasing costs [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 1.32 billion yuan, with a combined cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 2.92 billion yuan for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - The company sold 8.174 million pigs in Q1 2025, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with an average weight of 123 kg and an average price of 15.2 yuan/kg [1] - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 100.236 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [3] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 9.405 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [3] Cost and Profitability - The comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to an estimated 12.7 yuan/kg in Q1 2025 [1] - The company sold 282 million chickens in Q1 2025, with an average price of 10.9 yuan/kg, leading to an estimated loss of 0.6 yuan per chicken due to costs [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.405 billion yuan, 5.823 billion yuan, and 9.699 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.9%, -38.1%, and 66.6% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability and cash flow performance, with a significant increase in gross margin by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing "Belt and Road" initiative, which is anticipated to enhance infrastructure and engineering demand in emerging markets [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.6 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million, an increase of 10% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.5%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous year, indicating improved profitability [2] - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1.5 billion, reflecting strong cash flow management [2] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded total revenue of 3.5 billion, down 28% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.8% [1] Future Earnings Estimates - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 910 million, 980 million, and 1.05 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 7.8%, and 7.6% [3][4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.63, 0.68, and 0.73 respectively [4] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 2.99 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a payout ratio of 51.4%, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]

事件：4 月 21 日自然资源部下达 2025 年度第一批钨矿（WO3 65%）开 采总量控制指标 5.8 万吨，去年同期 6.2 万吨，同比-6.5%。结构看，今 年第一批指标主要减项来自江西（-2,370 吨）、云南（-400 吨）、黑龙江（- 340 吨），部分地区如黑龙江、湖北、浙江等地未下发总量控制指标。 总量控制指标趋紧；资源稀缺主导钨价上涨行情。今年首批总量控制指标 同比下滑，一方面源于部分停产老矿山指标出清，另一方面或源于全年指 标平滑。去年第一批、第二批分别投放 6.2 万吨、5.2 万吨，全年 11.4 万 吨。今年或参考去年实际生产情况调整指标分配，两批指标量级差异呈现 收窄趋势。若将今年第一批指标年化，今年总量指标达 11.6 万吨，同比 +1.8%，略低于近五年 2.1%复合增速。但考虑到历史惯例，下半年第二 批指标通常低于第一批指标，今年全年实际指标预计较去年持平或有减。 长时序看，自 2018 年起，钨精矿开采总量控制指标呈现稳步上行趋势， 但与此同时，自 2016 年以来全国主产区加强对非法偷采盗采、私挖滥采、 无证开采等行为打击力度并卓有成效，叠加资源自然贫化与指标增长，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability and cash flow performance, with a significant increase in gross margin [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing "Belt and Road" initiative, which is anticipated to enhance infrastructure and engineering demand in emerging markets [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 17.6 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million, an increase of 10% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.5%, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1.5 billion in 2024, reflecting strong cash flow management [2] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded total revenue of 3.5 billion, a decrease of 28%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.8% [1] Future Earnings Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 910 million, 980 million, and 1.05 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 7.8%, and 7.6% [3][4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.63, 0.68, and 0.73 respectively [4] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 2.99 per 10 shares for 2024, with a payout ratio of 51.4%, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]

小金属 总量控制指标同比下滑，原料偏紧驱动钨价上移 事件：4 月 21 日自然资源部下达 2025 年度第一批钨矿（WO3 65%）开 采总量控制指标 5.8 万吨，去年同期 6.2 万吨，同比-6.5%。结构看，今 年第一批指标主要减项来自江西（-2,370 吨）、云南（-400 吨）、黑龙江（- 340 吨），部分地区如黑龙江、湖北、浙江等地未下发总量控制指标。 总量控制指标趋紧；资源稀缺主导钨价上涨行情。今年首批总量控制指标 同比下滑，一方面源于部分停产老矿山指标出清，另一方面或源于全年指 标平滑。去年第一批、第二批分别投放 6.2 万吨、5.2 万吨，全年 11.4 万 吨。今年或参考去年实际生产情况调整指标分配，两批指标量级差异呈现 收窄趋势。若将今年第一批指标年化，今年总量指标达 11.6 万吨，同比 +1.8%，略低于近五年 2.1%复合增速。但考虑到历史惯例，下半年第二 批指标通常低于第一批指标，今年全年实际指标预计较去年持平或有减。 长时序看，自 2018 年起，钨精矿开采总量控制指标呈现稳步上行趋势， 但与此同时，自 2016 年以来全国主产区加强对非法偷采盗采、私挖滥采、 无证开采等行为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The new game "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" has performed well, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 363 million yuan in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games and a solid overseas business development strategy, although overseas revenue saw a decline in Q1 2025 [3]. - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 39.18 billion yuan, 43.49 billion yuan, and 46.60 billion yuan respectively [4]. Financial Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.136 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.47% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 29.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 283 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 11.82% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.43% [1]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.002 billion yuan, 1.168 billion yuan, and 1.260 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 6.0%, 16.6%, and 7.9% [4]. Game Performance - "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" has surpassed 2 million registered users since its launch in January 2025 and has introduced several updates and new gameplay features [2]. - Existing games like "Wen Gui" and "Yi Xiao Yao" have shown mixed performance, with revenue declines year-over-year but some recovery quarter-over-quarter [2]. Overseas Business - The overseas revenue for Q1 2025 was 117 million yuan, down 15.95% year-over-year, primarily due to high revenue contributions from the previous year [3]. - The company has a rich pipeline of overseas products, including self-developed and licensed titles, with several new games expected to launch in 2025 [3].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 23 年 月 日 1）毛利率：2025 Q1 公司毛利率为 49.9%，同比+0.2pct。 2）费率端：2025 Q1 公司销售/管理费/研发/财务费率分别为 26.0%/6.4%/4.1%/-0.6% ，同比变动 +2.4pct/-3.8pct/- 1.9pct/+0.4pct，销售费用率提升主要系公司推广力度加大及业务 收入结构变动导致。管理费用率优化明显。 3）净利率：2025Q1 净利率为 15.7%，同比+1.5pct，净利率创近 三年单季新高。 北鼎股份（300824.SZ） 内销复苏超预期，盈利水平提升明显 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报。公司 2025 年第一季度实现营业 收入 2.1 亿元，同比+33.4%；归母净利润为 0.3 亿元，同比+47.7%； 扣非归母净利润为 0.3 亿元，同比+57.5%。 内销复苏超预期，外销有所承压。 2025 Q1 分业务来看，公司自主品牌业务收入 1.8 亿元，同比增长 46.5%，占比提升至 83.8%。其中，北鼎中国业务收入 1.7 亿元， 同比增长 51.4%，主因为受益 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. The gross margin was 20%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.058 billion yuan, up 47% year-on-year but down 23% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 13% [1] - The company plans to accelerate the construction of an integrated aluminum industry park in Indonesia, aiming to enhance its resource, cost, technology, and management advantages in the global aluminum market [2] - The company has completed an equity acquisition of a local mining company in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with an annual production capacity planned at 5-6 million tons [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.8 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.3, 6.3, and 5.8 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.925 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20% and a net profit of 1.058 billion yuan [1] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 31.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.791 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is constructing an integrated aluminum industry chain in Indonesia, which includes bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing [2] - The company has secured three bauxite mining rights in Indonesia, with plans to start mining in 2025 [2] - The company aims to achieve a 100% self-sufficiency rate for bauxite through acquisitions and exploration efforts [3] Market Outlook - The company has adjusted its aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027 to 20,000, 20,500, and 21,000 yuan per ton, respectively, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - The company’s competitive edge is expected to strengthen through its integrated layout and cost advantages, positioning it for significant growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The new game "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" has performed well, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 3.63 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [2] - The company has a robust pipeline of new games and a solid overseas business development strategy, with a rich reserve of products [3][4] Financial Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.136 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.47% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 29.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 11.82% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.43% [1] - The company expects revenues of 3.918 billion, 4.349 billion, and 4.660 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.002 billion, 1.168 billion, and 1.260 billion yuan [4][5] Game Performance - "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" has surpassed 2 million registered users since its launch in January 2025 and has introduced several updates and new gameplay features [2] - Existing games have shown mixed performance, with "Wen Gui" PC game revenue at 321 million yuan in Q1 2025, down 16.26% year-over-year but up 34.87% quarter-over-quarter [2] Overseas Business - The overseas revenue for Q1 2025 was 117 million yuan, down 15.95% year-over-year, primarily due to high revenue contributions from the previous year [3] - The company has a strong pipeline of overseas products, including self-developed and licensed titles, with several new games expected to launch in 2025 [3]