证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 8 月） 8 月延续相对跑输，持续看好红利长期配置 推荐（维持） 价值 ❑ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、改革不及预期、并购整合等资本运作不及预期。 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,359.48 | 3.58 | 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[8] - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^S $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^v $ where: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance of the asset price - \( \mu \): Drift term - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^S, W_t^v \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \)[8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market fear and volatility expectations, providing a robust measure of implied volatility[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 20.3% (+2.93% WoW)[10] - SSE 500: 22.36% (+2.82% WoW)[10] - CSI 1000: 25.91% (+4.86% WoW)[10] - CSI 300: 19.21% (+1.12% WoW)[10] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Signal Shape Timing Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the frequency and success rate of positive and negative signals derived from historical shape patterns. It aims to predict future highs and lows in the market[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Positive signals and negative signals are identified based on historical shape patterns - The success rate of these signals in predicting future highs and lows is calculated as: $ \text{Success Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Correct Predictions}}{\text{Total Number of Predictions}} \times 100\% $ - For the period from August 11 to August 15, 2025: - Positive signals: 3365 occurrences, average success rate of 70.33% - Negative signals: 3167 occurrences, average success rate of 27.82%[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong predictive power for positive signals, with a high success rate in identifying future market highs[12] 2. Factor Name: Industry Multi-Long-Short Shape Timing Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is constructed by calculating the difference in the number of long and short signals within industry index constituent stocks. It aims to outperform respective industry indices through timing strategies[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - For each industry index, the number of long and short signals is calculated daily - If no long or short signals are present, the respective count is set to zero - The difference between long and short signals (scissor difference) is calculated, and the ratio of this difference is used to construct the timing strategy[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor outperforms all respective industry indices in backtesting, demonstrating excellent historical performance[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Signal Shape Timing Factor - **Positive Signal Success Rate**: 70.33%[12] - **Negative Signal Success Rate**: 27.82%[12] 2. Industry Multi-Long-Short Shape Timing Factor - **Performance Metrics**: - Outperformed respective industry indices in 100% of backtests[15] - **Examples of Industry Results**: - Machinery: Strategy annualized return 19.72%, maximum drawdown -42.41%; Index annualized return 4.63%, maximum drawdown -72.59%[16] - Retail: Strategy annualized return 19.75%, maximum drawdown -43.39%; Index annualized return -0.9%, maximum drawdown -77.37%[16] - Electronics: Strategy annualized return 22.54%, maximum drawdown -44.99%; Index annualized return 11.13%, maximum drawdown -58.54%[16] --- Additional Observations - **Special Positive Shape Signals**: Specific K-line patterns such as "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," and "Full Red" exhibit strong positive predictive effects[22][23] - **Brokerage Golden Stock Shape Signals**: Combining fundamental analysis with shape-based buy signals significantly improves portfolio returns and reduces maximum drawdowns[27]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0818-0824）：供需偏不利，定价 修复或有难度 债券周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 供给方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational quality and successful expansion of customized storage clients. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [2][10]. - The demand for NOR Flash in the consumer sector has significantly increased, and the company is making steady progress in expanding its customized storage business in various fields such as AI mobile phones, AI PCs, and automotive applications [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported: - Revenue: 4.15 billion yuan (YoY +15%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 575 million yuan (YoY +11.31%) - Non-recurring net profit: 544 million yuan (YoY +14.99%) [2][10]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue: 2.24 billion yuan (YoY +13.09%, QoQ +17.4%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 341 million yuan (YoY +9.17%, QoQ +45.27%) [2][10]. Future Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Total revenue (million yuan): 7,356 in 2024, 9,755 in 2025, 12,158 in 2026, and 15,250 in 2027 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 1,103 in 2024, 1,559 in 2025, 2,153 in 2026, and 2,636 in 2027 - Earnings per share (yuan): 1.66 in 2024, 2.35 in 2025, 3.24 in 2026, and 3.97 in 2027 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing its market share and has successfully captured opportunities in various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and computing. The strategy emphasizes customized storage solutions and leveraging the growing demand in AI-related applications [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's profitability improvement logic continues to be validated, with multiple business segments showing growth potential. The company is expected to experience rapid revenue growth in the near future [1][7]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 37.549 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.65% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 21.245 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.83% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.3%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 12.12% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102.2% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 104.317 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.3%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.535 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 32.6%. By 2027, this figure is expected to rise to 5.283 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2024 to 1.51 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The smart acoustic assembly business experienced a revenue decline of 34.92% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to product iteration cycles. However, the upcoming release of AirPods Pro 3 is expected to boost sales in the second half of the year [7]. - The precision components business reported a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.54%, with a gross margin of 23.49% [7]. - The smart hardware segment achieved a revenue of 20.341 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.49%, driven by the successful progress of high-margin AI glasses products [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the XR industry, with expectations to benefit from industry growth and increased demand for AI-enabled products [7]. - The global AI smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 533% [7]. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its comprehensive product offerings and technological advancements [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company's gaming business remains stable, with a significant increase in net profit driven by growth in investment income and operational cash flow improvements. The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.26% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its AI initiatives across various sectors, including cloud computing, cultural tourism, media, and healthcare, showcasing a diversified approach to leveraging AI technology [7]. - The exploration of the IP economy through the launch of the "Guzi" trendy toy business is expected to contribute positively to future revenue streams [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.414 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.09%. The operating cash flow turned positive at 251 million yuan, compared to a negative 96 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Forecasts for total revenue are projected to grow from 3.097 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.286 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 512 million yuan to 854 million yuan over the same period [3][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to increase from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.67 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [3][8]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 19.883 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 39 times in 2024 to 23 times by 2027 [4][3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 20.25 yuan, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 15.68 yuan [3].

- The short-term volume model indicates a bullish outlook for most broad-based indices[2][12][70] - The low volatility model is neutral in the short term[2][12][70] - The institutional model based on the characteristics of the Dragon and Tiger list is bearish in the short term[2][12][70] - The characteristic volume model is bullish in the short term[2][12][70] - The intelligent algorithm models for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are bullish in the short term[2][12][70] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is bullish[2][13][71] - The mid-term calendar effect model is neutral[2][13][71] - The long-term momentum model is bullish[2][14][72] - The comprehensive A-share models, including the A-share Comprehensive Weapon V3 model and the A-share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model, are bullish[2][15][73] - The mid-term turnover rate inverse volatility model for Hong Kong stocks is bullish[2][16][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][7]. Core Views - The company's profit decline has narrowed in Q2 2025, indicating a stabilization and recovery in profitability. The revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has led to an increase in net profit margin to 11.7% in Q2 2025, marking a recent high [7]. - The company is actively expanding its market boundaries by targeting large clients and projects, and has signed or renewed framework cooperation agreements with over 20 key clients [7]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, particularly in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, in line with the Belt and Road Initiative [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.67 billion, 8.80 billion, and 10.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 795 million, 929 million, and 1.09 billion yuan [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 yuan in 2025, 1.81 yuan in 2026, and 2.13 yuan in 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14 in 2025 to 10 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the upcoming months [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to gradually enter a seasonal peak as new car launches begin in the second half of the year, with price resilience observed against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The market has absorbed much of the anticipated policy effects for next year, leading to significant gains in automotive stocks, suggesting a shift towards focusing on alpha stocks rather than beta stocks [2]. Data Tracking - In July, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth for companies like Xiaopeng, which saw a year-on-year increase of 229.4%, while BYD's deliveries were 344,296 units, up 0.6% year-on-year but down 10% month-on-month [4][14]. - Traditional automakers also reported strong sales, with Geely's sales reaching 238,000 units, a 57.6% increase year-on-year [4][20]. - The average discount rate in early August was 10.1%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous period, with an average discount amount of 22,542 yuan [4]. Industry News - The report highlights several key developments, including the launch of the Mengshi M817, which features advanced driving technologies and a starting price of 319,900 yuan [27]. - A survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicated that 52.6% of automotive dealers reported losses in the first half of 2025, with independent new energy vehicle brands performing better than traditional fuel brands [27]. - The report also notes that NIO has invested over 18 billion yuan in charging and battery swap infrastructure over the past decade, with more than 8,100 stations built nationwide [28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 4.94%, ranking 6th among 29 sectors, with significant gains in both the parts and passenger vehicle segments [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, citing an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to support metal prices [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that Powell's statements may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to an upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold [4]. - There is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices due to improving macroeconomic conditions and a decrease in aluminum inventory, indicating a potential recovery in market consumption as the peak season approaches [4]. - The report highlights significant corporate actions, such as China Hongqiao's substantial share buyback, reflecting confidence in future growth [4]. - Focus is placed on the acquisition by Jiaozuo Wanfang of a majority stake in Sanmenxia Aluminum, which is expected to enhance the company's integrated operations [4]. - The report notes that Shenhui Co. has shown a recovery in aluminum profits, driven by rising aluminum prices despite a decline in net profit year-on-year [4]. Industry Data Summary Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, with a reported inventory of 596,000 tons as of August 21, down by 11,000 tons from the previous week [4]. - The report also mentions that the average daily production of electrolytic aluminum in China is projected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring inventory trends [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold, as well as silver companies like Xinyi Silver and Hunan Silver [5]. Tungsten and Other Metals - The report notes a significant increase in tungsten exports, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% in July, indicating a continued upward trend in tungsten prices [6][8]. - The report suggests that companies involved in cobalt and lithium production may benefit from rising prices and demand in the market [8].