Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in December, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-3.75% to 3.75%-3.5%[1] - The Fed raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. next year while lowering inflation expectations, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast increased by 0.5% to 2.3% and the core PCE forecast reduced by 0.1% to 2.5%[1][4] Future Rate Projections - The latest dot plot indicates the Fed may cut rates once in both 2026 and 2027, with no cuts expected in 2028, maintaining a neutral rate at 3%[1][4] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is not expected to be lower than 3.25%, with a similar outlook for 2027[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to purchase short-term U.S. Treasury securities aims to maintain ample reserve levels, unrelated to monetary policy stance[1][5] - The Fed's actions support a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with potential upward pressure on the dollar and long-term Treasury yields[1][7] Risks and Market Reactions - Risks include a potential price war in the oil market and systemic financial risks in emerging markets[2] - Following the Fed's rate cuts from April to September, U.S. equities, the dollar, and long-term Treasury yields have shown upward trends, indicating a shift in market sentiment[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12th Politburo meeting emphasized the continued implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The government aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to promote consumption. The financial sector should work towards building a financial powerhouse [1][10]. - The government will implement a more effective and forceful proactive fiscal policy, with the issuance of local government bonds exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time [2][13]. - The central bank focuses on cross - cyclical balance, with net purchases of 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds in November, slightly lower than market expectations [3][14]. - Financial regulators have launched a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs and lowered the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments [4][18]. - In the real estate sector, Vanke is seeking an extension of its domestic bonds, and Shenzhen has introduced new rules for housing provident fund withdrawals to support home purchases [5][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - tone - The Politburo meeting on December 8 proposed that next year's economic work should continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies, strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, focusing on domestic demand, and promoting innovation - driven development [10]. - On November 26, six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming to form three trillion - level consumption sectors and ten billion - level consumption hotspots by 2027 and establish a high - quality development pattern of supply and consumption interaction by 2030 [10][12]. - On December 3, Wang Jiang proposed accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse, developing diversified financing methods such as equity and bond financing, and steadily promoting the development of futures, derivatives, and asset - backed securities [11]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - On December 2, Minister of Finance Lan Fuan emphasized the implementation of a more effective and forceful proactive fiscal policy, expanding domestic demand, and optimizing government investment. The government should also prevent and resolve local government debt risks [13][15]. - As of December 2, the issuance scale of national local government bonds reached approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, breaking through the 10 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time [2][13][15]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - On December 4, Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned that the central bank should focus on cross - cyclical balance, avoid excessive policy adjustments, and use various monetary policy tools to smooth economic fluctuations [14][17]. - In November, the central bank net - bought 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds, slightly lower than market expectations. However, the need for banks to increase bond purchases significantly is limited. The central bank's bond - buying may still be an important tool for liquidity injection next year [3][14][17]. 3.4 Financial Supervision - On December 6, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing encouraged leading institutions to build world - class investment banks through mergers and acquisitions, and "moderately loosen restrictions" on high - quality securities firms, while the Asset Management Association of China may cut the salaries of underperforming fund managers [18][21][22]. - On November 28, the CSRC issued a draft announcement for a pilot program of commercial real estate investment trust funds, specifying product definitions, registration, and management requirements [19][21]. - On December 5, the National Administration of Financial Regulation adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments, reducing the risk factors for certain stocks held for a certain period [20][21]. 3.5 Real Estate Policy - On November 26, Vanke sought an extension of its 2 billion yuan domestic bond due on December 15, 2025. The proposed extension plan includes a one - year extension of principal and interest payments, with the interest rate remaining unchanged [23][26]. - On December 5, Shenzhen introduced new rules for housing provident fund withdrawals, increasing the support for home purchases, including different withdrawal limits for the first, second, and subsequent homes [24][26]. - On December 6, a media outlet under the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the vitality of the real estate market is crucial for high - quality development. Local governments should actively resolve the risks of troubled real estate enterprises [24][25][26].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 49 周） 重庆发布"好房子"建设支持新政，万科公 推荐（维持） 布债务展期议案 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,299.23 | 1.03 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,793.16 | 1.23 | | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.9% | 10.8% | -9.5% | | 相对表现 | -2.6% | -8.5% | -25.8% | | | 2024-12-0 ...

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding the expected 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[1] - The month-on-month export growth in November was 8.2%, higher than the historical average of 5.6% over the past five years[1] - Cumulative exports from January to November showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, slightly up from 5.3% in October[1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Exports in the machinery and electronics sector grew by 7.9% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 4.7 percentage points to overall export growth[2] - The "three major machinery and electronics" products (cars, ships, integrated circuits) saw export growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - Labor-intensive products experienced a decline of -4.3% year-on-year from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth by 0.7 percentage points[2] Group 3: Regional Insights - Exports to emerging markets increased by 11.1% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - Exports to the United States fell by -18.9% year-on-year, dragging down overall export growth by 2.8 percentage points[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5%[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face adjustment pressure due to a higher base, with projections suggesting a year-on-year decline to the 3%-4% range[4] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with potential support from the electronics supply chain for continued growth[4] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to stabilize external demand and support resilient export performance over the next six months to a year[4]

资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 8 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251201-20251207） 吴清主席协会大会讲话：明确"十五五"路径，重 推荐（维持） 塑行业格局 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 广发证券 | 000776.SZ | 21.71 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 2.05 | 11.45 | 11.17 | 10.60 | 1.31 | 推荐 | | 中信证券 | 600030.SH | 28.70 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 2.08 | 15.14 | 15.03 | 13.77 | 1.53 | 推荐 | | 华泰证券 | 6016 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111) [2][4]. Core Views - Kingsoft Office has upgraded its WPS 365 to a global one-stop AI collaborative office platform, introducing new products such as WPS Lingxi Enterprise Edition and Team Space, enhancing its AI core products [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic office software market and AI office solutions, leveraging its WPS ecosystem and AI technology to strengthen its market dominance [8]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 60.49 billion, 71.62 billion, and 85.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.1%, 18.4%, and 18.7% [8][10]. Company Overview - Kingsoft Office has a total share capital of 46,317.93 million shares and a total market value of 1,414.78 billion yuan [5]. - The company has served over 1 million enterprise clients and more than 18,000 leading government and enterprise clients [8]. - In the 2024 Fortune Global 500 list, 90% of the 133 Chinese companies have adopted WPS 365 for efficiency improvements [8]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Kingsoft Office is 5,121 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,645 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.8% [10]. - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 91 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market has supportive policies and reserved incremental funds, with expected abundant capital liquidity. In 2026, the equity market liquidity is expected to remain strongly supported due to continuous loose signals from regulatory authorities and sufficient remaining incremental funds in the market [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF may inject more liquidity into the market. It has great development potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected that in 2026, constant equity - bond ETF products will be launched more rapidly, bringing more incremental funds to both the equity and convertible bond markets [1][10][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2026: A Year Still Supported by Strong Liquidity - Since the second half of 2024, with frequent capital market supportive policies, the broad - based indices of the equity market have grown steadily, and the scale of public funds under management has increased rapidly. As of the end of Q2 2025, it has increased by 10.65% compared to the same period last year. Insurance funds have also significantly increased their investment in the stock market since H2 2025 [1][8]. - The proportion of stock investment in the available funds of insurance companies is only 10%, and the margin trading balance is still in a relatively neutral range. Regulatory authorities have continuously released loose signals, indicating that the equity market liquidity will remain strongly supported in 2026 [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF has shown better performance than general equity/pure - bond indices in most indicators over the past 10 years. It has great potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected to bring more incremental funds to the market in 2026 [10][15][16]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, and Valuations Were Passively Lifted Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, major stock indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.09%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.11%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%. There are 400 issued but un - matured convertible bonds, with a balance scale of 541.56 billion yuan [17]. - In the equity market, sectors showed mixed performance. Non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and non - bank finance led the gains, while textile and apparel, computer, food and beverage, real estate, and media led the losses. In the convertible bond market, half of the sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, machinery and equipment, and electronics leading the gains [21]. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.28 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds showed different trends. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) price range decreased significantly [26]. - The premium rates of convertible bonds of most ratings and scales increased. Terms and Supply: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, with a Total Pending Issuance Scale of Approximately 18.3 Billion Yuan Terms - As of December 5, Limin, Xinhua, and Nenghui convertible bonds announced early redemption; Huamao, Yake, and Yong 02 convertible bonds announced no early redemption; Hugong and Shouhua convertible bonds announced that they are expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [2][49]. - Last week, no convertible bond issued a board - proposed downward revision bill announcement, and no convertible bond announced the downward revision result. Six convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger downward revision [2][49]. Primary Market - Last week, Puxin convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 243 million yuan, and no new convertible bonds were listed [3][52]. - Last week, 2 companies added board proposals, 3 companies passed the general meeting of shareholders, 2 companies passed the approval of the issuance review committee, and no new company was approved by the CSRC. Compared with the same period last year, the changes were +0, +3, +0, - 2 respectively [3][53]. - As of December 5, 6 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 4.475 billion yuan. 8 listed companies have passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. Last week, Zuoli Pharmaceutical and Zhongding Co., Ltd. added board proposals, with a total scale of 4.056 billion yuan [3][60].

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 非农报告之外的美国就业市场观察 主要观点 核心观点：政府停摆致数据断更和 AI 技术可能颠覆就业，引发了市场对于非 农报告"看不见"的就业市场信息的关注。本期海外周报主要观察美国就业报 告之外的就业市场信息，我们发现： 1）非农尚看不到迹象的潜在就业"新"趋势：目前来看，无论是货币政策制 定者，还是学术与市场研究领域，对 AI 对就业影响的前景均判断不明。货币 政策层面，政策制定者正在密切关注当前 AI 发展产生的"双重效应"，即 AI 促进经济产出增长的同时可能又压制了就业。从部分地方联储的调查或研究来 看，当前 AI 对就业市场的净影响仍然有限，但前景仍不明朗，存在高度不确 定性。学术研究层面，对于 AI 影响就业的方向尚无定论，部分研究证实 AI 的 就业替代效应，也有研究指出 AI 的就业创造效应。市场研究层面，多数聚焦 于当下或短期，认为 AI 对整体就业影响有限但行业异质性显著，但具体对行 业影响如何也存在分歧。 2）非农之外观察就业的"新"指标：目前从 6 个跟踪指标来看，美国劳动力 市场的近期（10-11 月）趋势是继续慢性趋弱：劳动力需求走弱（职位空缺数 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Planning, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - Suzhou Planning aims to acquire Dongjin Aviation Technology to enter the low-altitude economy sector, with a transaction price of 250 million yuan, and the acquisition has been approved by the shareholders [5][15]. - Dongjin Aviation is recognized as a pioneer in low-altitude digitalization, providing comprehensive solutions from airspace planning to air traffic management infrastructure [8][25]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies, enhancing profitability and providing new solutions for urban three-dimensional planning [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Suzhou Planning has a total share capital of 11.44 million shares, with a market capitalization of 2.48 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1.62 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.94% and a net asset value per share of 8.38 yuan [2]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Dongjin Aviation involves issuing 10.873 million shares at 17.97 yuan per share, representing 8.68% of the post-transaction total share capital [5][18]. - Dongjin Aviation has committed to achieving net profits of no less than 15 million, 25 million, and 35 million yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5][19]. Financial Analysis - Suzhou Planning's net profit for 2024 is projected at 29 million yuan, with a significant decline of 62.8% year-on-year [6]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 11 million yuan for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 and 2027, reaching 21 million and 25 million yuan, respectively [6][9]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 220, 117, and 98, respectively [9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant market opportunity in the low-altitude economy, estimating a government-level market size in the hundreds of billions [10]. - Dongjin Aviation has a robust order backlog of 103 million yuan and is tracking contracts worth 760 million yuan [8][10]. Strategic Fit - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to integrate ground and airspace planning capabilities, addressing industry pain points and aligning with the trends in low-altitude economic development [23][10]. - The report emphasizes the unique positioning of Suzhou Planning in the low-altitude digitalization sector post-acquisition, enhancing its competitive edge [10][12].