Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the consumer services industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The integration pace in the cultural tourism industry is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions indicating a shift from fragmented growth to resource optimization and brand specialization [2] - The acquisition of Junting Hotel by Hubei Cultural Tourism Group for approximately 1.5 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises and leading private companies enhancing their core competitiveness through asset integration [6] - The tourism sector is increasingly recognized as a vital driver of domestic demand and consumption, with a strategic role in local economic development [6] Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 457.1 billion yuan [3] Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.65% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.28% [4][9] Important Announcements - Junting Hotel has become a subsidiary of Hubei Cultural Tourism Group, marking a significant shift in ownership and control [33] - Meituan reported a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, but faced substantial losses in its core local business segment [34] - Yadu Group achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [34] Future Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in December, including ST United and Xi'an Tourism [36]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 49 期 出口高频维持韧性 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装 箱吞吐量环比-0.3%，上周环比为+5.4%，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6%，上周为 10%，10 月 26 日四周同比为 6.6%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售同比增速+2%，前值-7%。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比-7%。10 月全月同比为+5.8%。 3、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品房成交面积同比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。10 月同比为- 26%。11 月 24 日当周，二手房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线 城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1%，全国累计下跌 5.5%。 4、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨。本周南华综合指数、RJ/CRB 商品价格指数分别上涨 1%、1.5%。蔬菜批价上涨 2.4%，鸡蛋批价上涨 1. ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1201-1207）：财政助益下，跨年 压力或有限 债券周报 2025 年 12 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会— ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业周报（20251201-20251207） 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 板块触底有望提前，关注 26 年 beta 反弹机会 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 本周我们更新了明年年度策略，相较于前几年，2026 年确实市场一致预期相对较高，我 们观点简言之：1）销量展望没那么悲观，所以会有 beta 反弹机会；2）整车投资依然以 个股为主，零部件以新产业为主。 4Q 汽车基本面低于预期，这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The positioning of the digital RMB is expected to advance, with significant potential in the payment sector. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is working on optimizing the management system for digital RMB, which may evolve from a cash-like payment instrument (M0) to broader monetary categories (M1, M2) [2][8]. - Infrastructure development for digital RMB is progressing, with the establishment of international and operational centers in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction amount in pilot areas reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with 2.25 billion personal wallets opened [3][8]. - The banking sector is expected to see a systematic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a growth-oriented investment logic. Key investment themes include high dividend yields and low valuations, particularly as risk-free interest rates decline [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector comprises 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, representing 13.04% of the market [4]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 10,583.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.65% increase from the previous week [8]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report highlights that the banking index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points during the week [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. State-owned banks and major commercial banks like China Merchants Bank. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with improving net interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and showing significant performance potential [9]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and several city commercial banks such as Chengdu Bank and Chongqing Bank [9][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251201-20251205） 指数择时多空交织，后市或中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 0.37%，创业板指单周上涨 1.86%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看多。 金融工程 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：有色金属、通信、国防军工、非 银行金融、机械，跌幅前五的行业为：传媒、房地产、食品饮料、纺织服装、 农林牧渔。从资金流向角度来说，除煤炭、建材外所有行业主力资金净流出， 其中基础化工、计算机、电子、传媒、医药主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 97.29%，相较于上周增加了 70 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 86.86%，相较于上周减少了 80 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20251201-20251205） 本周热度变化最大行业为通信、食品饮料 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 85%、95%、 94%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、轻工制造、银行、电子、商贸零售、钢铁、计算机、 国防军工、煤炭、环保、建筑材料、医药生物；位于估值历史 20%以下的有食 品饮料、综合、非银金融； 申万二级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，目前处于历史分位数 80%以上的二级 行业有航天装备、软件开发、国有大型银行、冶钢原料、生物制品、风电设备、 化学制药、环保设备、服装家纺、普钢、旅游及景区、橡胶、航空机场、专业 连锁、装修建材、半导体、商用车、照明设备、互联网电商、数字媒体、化学 纤维、汽车服务、多元金融、工程机械。 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为"其他"，相比上周提高 1.54%， 最小的为中证 1000，相比上周降低 1.98%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面 ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 通胀边际抬升，聚焦会议定调 ——每周高频跟踪 20251206 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面 积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动 能有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。美联储降息预期强化、美元指数走 ...