证 券 研 究 报 告 会议纪要 电子 2024 年 11 月 06 日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 盛弘股份（300693）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 收缩国内储能，看好海外拓展 目标价：34.6 元 当前价：25.56 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布三季报，前三季度实现营收 20.95 亿元，yoy+20.91%；归母净利润 2.71 亿元，yoy-0.93%；扣非净利润 2.60 亿元，yoy+0.32%。其中，24Q3 收入 6.64 亿元，yoy+5.32%，qoq-20.11%；归母净利润 0.89 亿元，yoy-2.80%，qoq22.64%；扣非净利润 0.86 亿元，yoy-2.47%，qoq-24.09%。单 Q3 毛利率 41.46%，环比+1.87pcts；净利率 13.26%，环比-0.39pcts。 ❖ 多方面因素导致前三季度业绩低于预期，出现增收不增利现象。根据公司 24 年 10 月 31 日披露的投资者交流纪要，公司四块业务前三季度情况如下：工业 配套电源实现销售收入 4.02 亿元，同比增长 8.93%；新能源电能变换设备实 现销售收入 6.19 亿元，同比增长 6.84%；电动汽车充电设备实现销售收入 8.59 亿元，同比增长 45%；电池检测 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 浙数文化（600633）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩符合预期，主业稳健，投资收益亮眼， 浙江大数据交易中心并表 事项： ❖ 公司 24Q3 实现收入 7.6 亿元，YOY+26%，QOQ+3%；归母净利润 3.3 亿元， YOY+451%，QOQ+582%；扣非归母净利润 1.2 亿元，YOY+7%，QOQ-9.5%。 业绩符合预期。 评论： ❖ 主业稳健，投资收益贡献较大利润。收入端看，游戏业务、IDC 业务稳健，数 字营销、传播大脑等创新业务贡献收入增量。利润端看，投资收益贡献较大利 润，剔除后扣非归母同比个位数增长，考虑到去年社交业务同期利润贡献较好， 而今年该部分业务调整，公司其他业务整体利润增长较好。 ❖ 数字文化板块：公司坚持精品化战略，主业稳健增长，运营效率或有所提升。 24 年上半年，边锋网络继续坚持精品化运营，24 年上半年边锋掼蛋新增注册 用户超 1,300 万，继续保持日活领先地位，增速和发展潜力良好。我们认为， 受益于小程序渠道红利，掼蛋游戏有望保持较快增长，运营效率或有所提升。 ❖ 数字技术板块：富春云 IDC 稳步推进，传播大脑&城市大脑未来可 ...

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 long fiber sales achieved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, but raw material inventory losses dragged down Q3 performance [1] - The company's steady capacity expansion continues to solidify its industry position, with growth potential expected [2] - The investment recommendation is adjusted due to slower-than-expected recovery in polyester fiber price spreads and PTA losses caused by falling crude oil prices [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 49.197 billion yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 746 million yuan, down 15.91% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue was 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year and 6.56% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [1] Sales and Pricing - Q3 long fiber sales volume increased by 20.7% year-on-year and 14.4% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 2.0699 million tons [2] - POY/FDY/DTY sales volumes were 1.479/0.388/0.202 million tons, up 27.2%/7.3%/6.6% year-on-year and 18.8%/4.3%/5.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Q3 POY/FDY/DTY average prices were 6,690/7,568/8,699 yuan per ton, down 4.4%/3.5%/0.1% year-on-year and 3.2%/2.7%/1.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Capacity Expansion - Current long fiber production capacity is 7.4 million tons, with an additional 400,000 tons expected in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025 [2] - The company has 5 million tons of PTA capacity, with a future plan to reach 5.4 million tons using advanced P8++ technology [2] - The company is participating in the Taikun Petrochemical (Indonesia) refining project to further enhance cost advantages [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 1.013/1.650/2.373 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.527/2.069/2.705 billion yuan [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.66/1.08/1.56 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x/11x/7x [2] - Target price is set at 16.2 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Market Performance - Current stock price is 11.55 yuan, with a target price of 16.2 yuan [4] - The stock has shown a market performance ranging from -20% to 33% over the past 12 months [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 东方证券（600958）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩符合预期，自营业务展现一定弹性 目标价：13.3 元 当前价：11.29 元 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 双良节能（600481）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 硅片盈利能力修复，业绩环比大幅减亏 目标价：9.17 元 当前价：8.00 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024Q1-3 公司实现营收 103.47 亿元，同比-44.93%； 归母净利润-13.39 亿元，同比-195.47%；毛利率-0.39%，同比-16.51pct；归母 净利率-12.95%，同比-20.41pct。其中 2024Q3 公司实现营收 33.67 亿元，同比 -49.44%，环比+23.26%；归母净利润-0.82 亿元，同比-110.46%，环比+91.47%； 毛利率 11.30%，同比-9.14pct，环比+28.61pct；归母净利率-2.44%，同比 -14.23pct，环比+32.80pct。 评论： ❖ 降本增效持续推进，三季度硅片盈利能力环比修复。今年以来，由于光伏行 业市场供需错配，竞争加剧导致价格持续下行，硅片业务毛利率承压，叠加存 货跌价损失影响业绩。公司全线配备 1600 大尺寸炉型，具备拉制 M10、G12 以及定制化矩形硅片对应尺寸硅棒的能力。随着数智化工厂 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 恺英网络（002517）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 传奇基本盘稳健，业绩超预期，后续重点产 品储备丰富 事项： ❖ 三季报业绩超预期。公司披露 24Q3 业绩，单季度实现收入 13.7 亿元， YOY+30%，QOQ+10%；实现毛利润 11.3 亿元，YOY+29%，QOQ+11%；实 现归母净利润 4.7 元，YOY+32%，QOQ+23%；实现扣非归母净利润 4.8 亿元， YOY+33%，QOQ+27%。前三季度实现收入 39 亿元，YOY+30%，实现归母净 利润 12.8 亿元，YOY+18%，实现扣非归母净利润 12.8 亿元，YOY+23%。 评论： ❖ 传奇基本盘稳健，复古情怀类产品韧性十足。报告期内《天使之战》、《原始传 奇》等传奇奇迹基本盘产品取得良好业绩；旗下运营的集传奇游戏渠道、内容 社区为一体的平台 996 盒子，本季度也带来高毛利率的信息服务收入增量，共 同构成了公司稳健的传奇奇迹类产品基本盘。展望后续，我们看好公司在传奇 奇迹等多个复古情怀类赛道的产品力，认为其有望为公司奠定长期坚实的业绩 基本盘。 ❖ 创新精品类 IP 向产品储备丰富，看好大 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 完美世界（002624）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 存量业务仍承压，关注梳理后的大单品 进展 事项： ❖ 存量业务梳理及投资收益导致业绩承压。公司披露 24Q3 财报，本季度实现收 入 13 亿元，YOY-24%，QOQ-8%；实现毛利润 6.8 亿元，YOY-38%，QOQ25%；实现归母净利润-2.1 亿元，YOY 由盈转亏，QOQ-44%；实现扣非归母 净利润-2.1 亿元，YOY 由盈转亏，QOQ-177%。前三季度公司实现收入 40.7 亿 元，YOY-34%；实现归母净利润-3.9 亿元，YOY 由盈转亏；实现扣非归母净 利润-4.5 亿元，YOY 由盈转亏。前三季度公司对存量业务进行了梳理，由此 产生了部分一次性费用，加之部分游戏、影视产品不及预期，业绩有所承压。 评论： ❖ 游戏存量基本盘经营层面已经转正，调整梳理效果凸显。24Q3 游戏业务实现 扣非亏损 9467 万元，其中由于本季度被投企业亏损，公司确认了投资损失 1.16 亿元。意味着剔除后，游戏业务经过半年多的调整，经营层面利润已经转正。 展望后续，我们认为游戏业务存量基本盘有望保持目前趋势。 ❖ P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Jinko Solar (688223) with a target price of 11.17 CNY, compared to the current price of 9.28 CNY [1] Core Views - Jinko Solar's gross margin improved significantly quarter-over-quarter, with a Q3 gross margin of 11.82%, up 4.21 percentage points from Q2 [1] - The company's global shipments remained the world's largest, with 73.13GW of photovoltaic products shipped in the first three quarters of 2024, a 31.29% year-over-year increase [1] - N-type module shipments accounted for over 85% of total shipments, with Q3 module shipments reaching 23.85GW [1] - The company is actively expanding its global presence, with plans to issue GDRs to raise up to 4.5 billion CNY for overseas projects, including a 1GW high-efficiency module project in the US [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1-3 2024 was 717.7 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 15.66% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.15 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 80.88% [1] - Operating cash flow turned significantly positive in Q3, reaching 12.55 billion CNY [1] Global Expansion - Jinko Solar is accelerating its transition from global marketing to global manufacturing, with plans to establish a 10GW high-efficiency cell and module project in Saudi Arabia through a joint venture with PIF and VI [1] - The company aims to achieve a full-year module shipment target of 90-100GW for 2024 [1] Market Trends - Following the anti-internal competition call by the industry association in October, market bidding and pricing have shown a clear trend of stabilization and recovery, which is expected to improve industry profitability [1] Valuation - The report forecasts Jinko Solar's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 15.05 billion CNY, 44.70 billion CNY, and 57.70 billion CNY, respectively [1] - The current market valuation corresponds to 62x, 21x, and 16x PE for 2024-2026, respectively [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 轨交设备行业事项点评 行业研究 机械 2024 年 11 月 06 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...