资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 8 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251201-20251207） 吴清主席协会大会讲话：明确"十五五"路径，重 推荐（维持） 塑行业格局 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 广发证券 | 000776.SZ | 21.71 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 2.05 | 11.45 | 11.17 | 10.60 | 1.31 | 推荐 | | 中信证券 | 600030.SH | 28.70 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 2.08 | 15.14 | 15.03 | 13.77 | 1.53 | 推荐 | | 华泰证券 | 6016 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111) [2][4]. Core Views - Kingsoft Office has upgraded its WPS 365 to a global one-stop AI collaborative office platform, introducing new products such as WPS Lingxi Enterprise Edition and Team Space, enhancing its AI core products [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic office software market and AI office solutions, leveraging its WPS ecosystem and AI technology to strengthen its market dominance [8]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 60.49 billion, 71.62 billion, and 85.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.1%, 18.4%, and 18.7% [8][10]. Company Overview - Kingsoft Office has a total share capital of 46,317.93 million shares and a total market value of 1,414.78 billion yuan [5]. - The company has served over 1 million enterprise clients and more than 18,000 leading government and enterprise clients [8]. - In the 2024 Fortune Global 500 list, 90% of the 133 Chinese companies have adopted WPS 365 for efficiency improvements [8]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Kingsoft Office is 5,121 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,645 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 24.8% [10]. - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 91 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market has supportive policies and reserved incremental funds, with expected abundant capital liquidity. In 2026, the equity market liquidity is expected to remain strongly supported due to continuous loose signals from regulatory authorities and sufficient remaining incremental funds in the market [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF may inject more liquidity into the market. It has great development potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected that in 2026, constant equity - bond ETF products will be launched more rapidly, bringing more incremental funds to both the equity and convertible bond markets [1][10][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2026: A Year Still Supported by Strong Liquidity - Since the second half of 2024, with frequent capital market supportive policies, the broad - based indices of the equity market have grown steadily, and the scale of public funds under management has increased rapidly. As of the end of Q2 2025, it has increased by 10.65% compared to the same period last year. Insurance funds have also significantly increased their investment in the stock market since H2 2025 [1][8]. - The proportion of stock investment in the available funds of insurance companies is only 10%, and the margin trading balance is still in a relatively neutral range. Regulatory authorities have continuously released loose signals, indicating that the equity market liquidity will remain strongly supported in 2026 [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF has shown better performance than general equity/pure - bond indices in most indicators over the past 10 years. It has great potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected to bring more incremental funds to the market in 2026 [10][15][16]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, and Valuations Were Passively Lifted Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, major stock indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.09%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.11%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%. There are 400 issued but un - matured convertible bonds, with a balance scale of 541.56 billion yuan [17]. - In the equity market, sectors showed mixed performance. Non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and non - bank finance led the gains, while textile and apparel, computer, food and beverage, real estate, and media led the losses. In the convertible bond market, half of the sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, machinery and equipment, and electronics leading the gains [21]. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.28 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds showed different trends. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) price range decreased significantly [26]. - The premium rates of convertible bonds of most ratings and scales increased. Terms and Supply: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, with a Total Pending Issuance Scale of Approximately 18.3 Billion Yuan Terms - As of December 5, Limin, Xinhua, and Nenghui convertible bonds announced early redemption; Huamao, Yake, and Yong 02 convertible bonds announced no early redemption; Hugong and Shouhua convertible bonds announced that they are expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [2][49]. - Last week, no convertible bond issued a board - proposed downward revision bill announcement, and no convertible bond announced the downward revision result. Six convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger downward revision [2][49]. Primary Market - Last week, Puxin convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 243 million yuan, and no new convertible bonds were listed [3][52]. - Last week, 2 companies added board proposals, 3 companies passed the general meeting of shareholders, 2 companies passed the approval of the issuance review committee, and no new company was approved by the CSRC. Compared with the same period last year, the changes were +0, +3, +0, - 2 respectively [3][53]. - As of December 5, 6 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 4.475 billion yuan. 8 listed companies have passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. Last week, Zuoli Pharmaceutical and Zhongding Co., Ltd. added board proposals, with a total scale of 4.056 billion yuan [3][60].

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 非农报告之外的美国就业市场观察 主要观点 核心观点：政府停摆致数据断更和 AI 技术可能颠覆就业，引发了市场对于非 农报告"看不见"的就业市场信息的关注。本期海外周报主要观察美国就业报 告之外的就业市场信息，我们发现： 1）非农尚看不到迹象的潜在就业"新"趋势：目前来看，无论是货币政策制 定者，还是学术与市场研究领域，对 AI 对就业影响的前景均判断不明。货币 政策层面，政策制定者正在密切关注当前 AI 发展产生的"双重效应"，即 AI 促进经济产出增长的同时可能又压制了就业。从部分地方联储的调查或研究来 看，当前 AI 对就业市场的净影响仍然有限，但前景仍不明朗，存在高度不确 定性。学术研究层面，对于 AI 影响就业的方向尚无定论，部分研究证实 AI 的 就业替代效应，也有研究指出 AI 的就业创造效应。市场研究层面，多数聚焦 于当下或短期，认为 AI 对整体就业影响有限但行业异质性显著，但具体对行 业影响如何也存在分歧。 2）非农之外观察就业的"新"指标：目前从 6 个跟踪指标来看，美国劳动力 市场的近期（10-11 月）趋势是继续慢性趋弱：劳动力需求走弱（职位空缺数 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Planning, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - Suzhou Planning aims to acquire Dongjin Aviation Technology to enter the low-altitude economy sector, with a transaction price of 250 million yuan, and the acquisition has been approved by the shareholders [5][15]. - Dongjin Aviation is recognized as a pioneer in low-altitude digitalization, providing comprehensive solutions from airspace planning to air traffic management infrastructure [8][25]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies, enhancing profitability and providing new solutions for urban three-dimensional planning [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Suzhou Planning has a total share capital of 11.44 million shares, with a market capitalization of 2.48 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1.62 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.94% and a net asset value per share of 8.38 yuan [2]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Dongjin Aviation involves issuing 10.873 million shares at 17.97 yuan per share, representing 8.68% of the post-transaction total share capital [5][18]. - Dongjin Aviation has committed to achieving net profits of no less than 15 million, 25 million, and 35 million yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5][19]. Financial Analysis - Suzhou Planning's net profit for 2024 is projected at 29 million yuan, with a significant decline of 62.8% year-on-year [6]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 11 million yuan for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 and 2027, reaching 21 million and 25 million yuan, respectively [6][9]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 220, 117, and 98, respectively [9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant market opportunity in the low-altitude economy, estimating a government-level market size in the hundreds of billions [10]. - Dongjin Aviation has a robust order backlog of 103 million yuan and is tracking contracts worth 760 million yuan [8][10]. Strategic Fit - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to integrate ground and airspace planning capabilities, addressing industry pain points and aligning with the trends in low-altitude economic development [23][10]. - The report emphasizes the unique positioning of Suzhou Planning in the low-altitude digitalization sector post-acquisition, enhancing its competitive edge [10][12].

宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is limited while demand remains resilient, leading to expectations of fluctuating prices in the future [9][10] - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, with a significant reduction of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to 2021 [9][10] - Major energy companies are cautious with capital expenditures due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures [9][10] - OPEC+ has announced no further production increases for the next year, indicating limited supply growth [9][10] Crude Oil - Brent crude oil spot price is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.87% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price is $59.33 per barrel, up 1.23% week-on-week [10][32] - The market is responding to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have contributed to price fluctuations [10][32] Coal - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 802.7 yuan per ton, down 3.32% week-on-week, indicating weak demand and rising inventories [11][12] - Total coal inventory at major ports in the Bohai Rim reached 27.61 million tons, up 3.77% week-on-week, while southern ports reported 6.426 million tons, up 2.57% [11][12] - Domestic key power plants reported a daily coal consumption of 4.77 million tons, down 3.44% week-on-week, with coal inventory at 13.01 million tons, up 2.09% [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are declining due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the price of main coking coal at 1,630 yuan per ton, down 2.40% week-on-week [13][14] - Steel mills are showing cautious purchasing behavior due to lower profitability, impacting coking coal demand [13][14] Natural Gas - The EU has reached an agreement to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, which may impact global gas supply dynamics [15][16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas is $4.95 per million British thermal units, up 7.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have decreased [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies supporting energy security and capital expenditures [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]