Group 1: December Industrial Profit Data - In December, profits of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3%, recovering from a 13.1% decline in November, marking an 18.4 percentage point rebound[1] - By December 2025, inventory increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.6% previously[1] - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of 51.5%, while private enterprises grew by 0.56%, and foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises increased by 41.4%[1] Group 2: Annual Profit Structure Review - In 2025, the profit margin for midstream manufacturing rose to 5.2%, up from 5.1% in 2024, with profit growth reaching 7.7%[2] - Midstream manufacturing accounted for 39.8% of total industrial profits, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year[2] - Downstream consumer goods faced profit pressure, with a profit growth rate of -5.9% and a profit margin dropping to 6.6%[3] - Upstream materials saw a profit growth rate of -15%, with profit margin declining to 3.7%, below 2015 levels[4] - Commodity-related industries experienced a profit growth of 5.8%, with profit margin slightly decreasing to 7.1%[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by over 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The launch of Clawdbot, an AI assistant capable of taking over devices and performing tasks autonomously, has generated significant market interest, achieving over 50,000 stars on GitHub within days of its release [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of low-latency and secure infrastructure support for AI agents like Clawdbot, which is expected to benefit companies involved in cloud computing, AI data centers, computing power services, and content delivery networks [8]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 64,957.50 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 58,620.09 billion [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been 13.7%, 22.6%, and 42.4% respectively, while the relative performance has been 10.3%, 7.0%, and 19.2% [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies that provide secure and low-latency infrastructure, including: 1. Cloud computing: Alibaba, NET, Deepin Technology, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, Yuke Data 2. AI Data Centers: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Yunsai Zhili 3. Computing Power Services: Kexin Data, Hongjing Technology, Dawi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, Zhiwei Intelligent 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambricon, Muxi Co., Tian Shuzhixin, Moer Thread, Longxin Zhongke 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, iFlytek [8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 23 个行业下跌。A 股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-2.27%）、农林牧渔（-1.95%）、钢铁（-1.34%）； 涨幅前三位行业为电子（+2.27%）、通信（+2.15%）、国防军工（+1.65%）。 转债市场共计 17 个行业上涨，涨幅前三位行业为通信（+3.75%）、国防军工 （+2.65%）、机械设备（+1.63%）；跌幅前三位行业为煤炭（-1.04%）、有色金 属（-0.90%）、纺织服饰（-0.77%）。 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比-0.20%、制造环比+0.88%、科技环比+1.97%、大消费 环比-0.27%、大金融环比+0.02%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比+0.59pct、制造环比+0.3pct、科技环比-0.13pct、 大消费环比+0.88pct、大金融环比+0.071pct。 转债市场日度跟踪 20260127 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债缩量上涨，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨 0.18%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.09%、创业板指环比上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a rise, the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased, while the price of chick seedlings has remained high [2][9] - The report highlights that the supply of broiler chickens is currently tight due to external weather factors and diseases affecting survival rates, which initially supported price increases [9][12] - The report notes that the profitability of broiler farming has improved significantly, with a loss of 0.26 yuan per bird in December, a substantial increase in profitability compared to previous months [40][42] - The report suggests that the suspension of imports from France due to avian influenza outbreaks may create a supply gap, potentially improving industry conditions [45] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In December, the average price of broiler chickens was 3.68 yuan per jin, showing a trend of rising and then falling prices [9] - The average price of chick seedlings for white feather broilers was 3.56 yuan per bird, with prices fluctuating due to market demand and supply conditions [9][12] Production Capacity - As of December 2025, the average stock of parent broiler chickens was 21.3 million sets, down 2.7% year-on-year, while the average stock of backup parent chickens was 15.73 million sets, down 5.1% year-on-year [33][41] - The average stock of grandparent broiler chickens was 1.3586 million sets, up 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply in the upstream breeding segment [32][35] Sales Performance - In December, the sales volume of broiler meat from Shengnong Development reached 147,600 tons, an increase of 14.24% year-on-year, while the sales volume of processed chicken products increased by 51.38% [21][27] - The report also highlights that the sales volume of chick seedlings for the year reached 4.481 billion birds, a 2% increase year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares, as they are expected to benefit from the potential supply gap and ongoing improvements in domestic breeding efficiency [45]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 伊朗地缘"灰犀牛"：哪些价格受影响？ 主要观点 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的 基本经济国情，侧重自然资源、优势产业和出口结构。 ❖ 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往二 十余年动荡之最。去年 11 月开始，伊朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发 生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面断网 8 天。 1 月下旬局势趋于缓和。1 月 21 日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致 3117 人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存。1 月 22 日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。霍尔木兹海峡是全 球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消 费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%，流经该海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约 320 万桶/日，出口量约 180 万桶/日。伊朗 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a rise, the price of broiler chickens has slightly decreased, while the price of chick seedlings has stabilized at a high level [2][9] - The report highlights that the supply of broiler chickens is currently tight due to external weather factors and chicken diseases affecting survival rates, which initially supported price increases [9] - The report suggests that the recent outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in France may lead to a supply gap, potentially improving industry conditions [45] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In December, the average transaction price of broiler chickens was 3.68 yuan per jin, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [9] - The average price of chick seedlings for December was 3.56 yuan per chick, with prices initially rising due to demand from large-scale farms [9][12] Production Capacity - As of December 2025, the average stock of parent broiler chickens was 21.3 million sets, down 2.7% year-on-year [3][33] - The average stock of grandparent broiler chickens was 1.3586 million sets, up 6.4% year-on-year [32][35] Financial Performance - In December, the profit from broiler chicken farming was -0.26 yuan per bird, while the profit from hatcheries was 0.77 yuan per bird [40][42] - The report notes that the sales volume of broiler meat for Shengnong was 147,600 tons, up 14.24% year-on-year, and for Xiantan, it was 55,100 tons, up 11.99% year-on-year [21][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares due to potential supply gaps and ongoing improvements in domestic breeding efficiency [45]

❑ 2026 年 1 月 5 日，NVIDIA 宣布，NVIDIA BlueField-4 数据处理器（NVIDIA BlueField 全栈平台的一部分）为 NVIDIA 推理上下文内存存储平台提供支持， 该平台是面向下一代 AI 前沿的新一代 AI 原生存储基础设施。1 月 20 日，在 2026 阿里云 PolarDB 开发者大会上，阿里云旗下云原生数据库 PolarDB 正式 发布 AI 数据湖库（Lakebase）等系列全新产品能力。 评论： ❑ 我们认为：大模型记忆和硬件，将成为模型发展核心叙事，助力 AIDB 与向量 数据库规模化进程： 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 AI infra：算力系统化升级 DB for AI 进程加速 事项： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数( ...

Policy Overview - Trump proposed seven key policies to address "Affordability" issues, including instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in MBS to lower mortgage rates and limiting large institutional investors from buying homes to reduce prices[1][17]. - Other proposals include setting a credit card interest rate cap at 10%, issuing tariff rebates, requiring tech companies to cover infrastructure costs, a "Great Healthcare Plan," and banning dividends and buybacks for defense contractors while capping executive pay[1][11]. Feasibility Assessment - Two policies (MBS purchases and defense contractor restrictions) do not require congressional approval and have already begun implementation[4][29]. - Four policies may require legislation: limiting institutional home purchases, setting credit card rate caps, issuing tariff rebates, and the healthcare plan, which face potential opposition from both parties[3][6][35]. Probability of Implementation - Betting markets indicate a less than 45% chance for the implementation of limiting institutional home purchases, credit card rate caps, and tariff rebates within the year, with the highest probability (44%) for the credit card cap and the lowest (32%) for tariff rebates[2][7][42]. Potential Impacts - The MBS purchase could help narrow mortgage spreads, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 113 basis points in mortgage spreads if $200 billion is added[8][54]. - Limiting institutional purchases may only affect about 3% of the housing market, as institutions owning over 1,000 homes represent a small market share[2][56]. - A 10% cap on credit card rates could reduce rates by 11%, but the net interest margin for credit card businesses is only 9%-10%, potentially making the business unprofitable[9][12]. - Defense contractor dividends and buybacks account for 1%-3% of market value, with executive compensation linked to performance metrics rather than stock buybacks[12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and soybean production forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [1] - The report highlights adjustments in global agricultural supply and demand, with specific increases in corn, soybean, wheat, and rice production and consumption [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2025/26 year is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 1.02% from previous estimates, driven by higher yields and increased harvested area [8] - China's corn production is expected to rise to 301 million tons, a 2.12% increase, while consumption remains stable at 321 million tons [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected at 425.68 million tons, a 0.74% increase, with Brazil's production rising significantly due to favorable weather [19] - China's soybean production is expected to decline to 20.90 million tons, with consumption decreasing slightly to 133 million tons [25] Wheat - Global wheat production is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, a 0.52% increase, with demand also rising, leading to a higher stock-to-use ratio of 33.77% [32] - China's wheat production is expected to be stable at 140 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio projected to rise to 84.36% [37] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted to 541 million tons, with a slight increase in demand, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35.12% [43] - China's rice production is expected to increase to 146 million tons, with consumption also rising, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.46% [43]