www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月27日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第156期 SMO格局稳固，行业有望开启成长新周期 本周专题联系人：王宏雨 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 郑辰 | | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | 刘浩 | | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | 高初蕾 | | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 王宏雨 | | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 朱珂琛 | | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukec ...

行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | 华创证券研究所 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：单戈 | 证券分析师：许常捷 | 证券分析师：杨航 | | 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360522110001 | 执业编号：S0360525030002 | 执业编号：S0360525090001 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： 房地产行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 北京楼市再宽松 2025 年 12 月 24 日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、 北京住房公积金管理中心等 4 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策 的通知》。 评论： 本次北京房地产相关政策优化内容主要包括： 限购方面：1）非京籍居民家庭购买五环内商品住房的，缴纳社保或个税的年限，调整为 购房之日前连续缴纳满 2 年及以上；购买五环外商品住房的，缴纳社保或个税的年限， 调整为购房之日前连续缴纳满 1 年及以上。2）二孩及以上的多 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 美国经济的冷与热：总量向上，民生向下 ——美国三季度 GDP 点评 事 项 三季度美国 GDP 好于预期，GDP 环比折年率+4.3%，前值+3.8%，预期+3%， 显著强于季节性；GDP 同比+2.3%，前值+2.1%，预期+2%。 主要观点 核心结论：Q3 经济超预期的主要来源为：①库存投资负向拖累大幅改善（库 存投资对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为-0.2%，较前值提升 3.2 个百分点），主要 为抢进口修复后回归常态；②个人消费支出继续强劲增长（私人消费对 GDP 环比增速的拉动率为 2.4%，较前值提升 0.7 个百分点），但结构仍是服务消费 强、耐用品消费弱。 Q3 数据进一步佐证了美国经济冷热不均的分化，且短期难以改善这一分化。 总量向上：AI 投资继续拉动经济+富人财富效应下支撑消费偏强。但民生向下： 传统制造业与商品消费弱，导致"蓝领"就业难；普通人享受不到 AI 的财富 增值，反而财务状况不断恶化，67%的人口处于"月光族"。 经济冷热不均的分化能暂时避免经济衰退的到来，但无法解决政治风险。考虑 到 2026 年为中期选举年，不排除特朗普在经济矛盾无法解 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant government support and a projected market size exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025. This growth is driven by advancements in satellite internet, computing satellites, and the establishment of space data centers [5][6]. - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration marks a new era for the industry, providing dedicated regulatory oversight and fostering high-quality development [5]. - The report highlights the acceleration of satellite launches, with notable achievements in satellite internet and computing satellite constellations, positioning China as a leader in global space technology [5][6]. Industry Overview - The computer industry comprises 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 57.78 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 52.46 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has increased by 18.5%, while its relative performance against the benchmark index has improved by 2.2% [3]. Key Companies and Financial Projections - Notable companies in the sector include China Satellite, Aerospace Electronics, and Unisoc, with varying market capitalizations and earnings projections for 2024 and 2025. For instance, China Satellite has a market cap of 108.74 billion yuan with an estimated EPS of 0.1 for 2024 [6][7]. - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key players, indicating a diverse range of valuations and growth expectations across the industry [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.6 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is set to accelerate its store openings, which will enhance its growth potential. The new store model has been validated, and the company aims to achieve its 2025 store opening targets. The report outlines a three-phase growth strategy: "from 0 to 1," "from 1 to 10," and "from 10 to 100," indicating a clear operational turning point and the beginning of a new growth cycle [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 2,540 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6% in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 408 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.7% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.70 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 times in 2024 to 17 times in 2027 [2][7]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company has successfully opened new stores in various regions, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei, validating the replicability of its new store model. The upcoming franchisee conferences and the peak opening season after the Spring Festival are expected to catalyze further growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will reach a mid-term target of 1,500 to 2,000 new stores, with potential for even greater expansion in the long term [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the steamed bun industry, with a focus on continuous innovation and operational efficiency. The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the business model to franchisees, which is expected to drive further expansion and enhance brand strength [6][7].

1. Report's Core Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the second half of 2025, policy support for public REITs remained intensive. Central and local governments issued instructions on normalizing REITs declarations, expanding project reserves, and piloting commercial real - estate investment trust funds. The primary issuance accelerated, and new - type infrastructure REITs were listed for the first time. The secondary - market prices declined compared to the previous quarter, as funds flowed into the equity market and the fundamentals of underlying assets were differentiated, leading to a return of valuations to rational levels [4][9]. - The operating performance of various types of REITs was differentiated. Concession - based REITs performed relatively well, while the operating indicators of property - based REITs generally declined year - on - year. Specifically, municipal environmental protection and affordable rental housing REITs had the best performance, while consumption, transportation, and energy REITs remained stable overall, and industrial park and warehousing logistics REITs faced pressure [4]. - In terms of investment strategies, strategic placement in sectors with relatively stable fundamentals has a higher overall success rate. For offline and public subscriptions, it is necessary to select high - quality assets. In the secondary - market allocation, it is recommended to enter the market on the right side based on asset valuations and wait for the rebound from the first - quarter report or dividends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Policy Support - Central government: In September 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission promoted the normalizing of REITs declarations and recommendations. In November, the China Securities Regulatory Commission launched a pilot program for commercial real - estate REITs. In December, the scope of REITs project industries was expanded. Other departments also supported relevant projects to raise funds through REITs [10][12]. - Local governments: Many local governments, such as those in Chongqing and Zhejiang, supported the issuance of relevant REITs in areas like urban renewal, cultural and tourism consumption, and artificial intelligence [11]. 3.2 Operating Performance - Overall, the operating performance of various types of public REITs was differentiated. Concession - based REITs performed better, and property - based REITs' operating indicators generally declined year - on - year [14]. - Specifically, municipal environmental protection and affordable rental housing REITs had the best performance; consumption, transportation, and energy REITs remained stable; industrial park and warehousing logistics REITs faced pressure [17]. - In terms of distributable cash, industrial park infrastructure and warehousing logistics REITs had significant adjustments, while transportation infrastructure and energy infrastructure REITs showed differentiated trends [19]. 3.3 Underlying Asset Operation - **New - type infrastructure (data centers)**: Two data - center REITs listed in August 2025 had stable operations, with high utilization rates, long remaining contract periods, and high customer concentration. There was little competitive pressure for now [24][25]. - **Industrial park infrastructure**: The de - stocking rate was under pressure, with regional differentiation. Non - leading projects in second - tier cities were generally under pressure. Rents continued to decline, and price - for - volume and lease - term extension strategies were commonly used [29][31][32]. - **Warehousing logistics**: The downward pressure on the occupancy rate eased, and related leasing parties provided stability. Price - for - volume remained the main strategy, and the rent - pressure trend continued. Some REITs provided performance commitments [38][39][41]. - **Affordable rental housing**: The operation remained stable, with high occupancy rates and rents. They may maintain good anti - cyclical performance, but regional competition and subsequent expansion should be noted [43][44][45]. - **Consumption infrastructure**: The occupancy rate generally remained high, and the rent levels were differentiated. The overall operation was good, and transformation and upgrading were actively promoted. Regional market competition pressure should be noted [48][49]. - **Transportation infrastructure**: The overall toll revenue decreased year - on - year due to regional economic pressure and road - network changes. The sustainability of positive factors was limited, and the impact of subsequent road - network changes should be noted [51][52]. - **Ecological environment protection, municipal, and water conservancy**: The operating performance generally rose steadily. Except for the non - heating season of Jinan Energy REIT, the operations of other REITs were stable and improving [54]. - **Energy infrastructure**: The operation was under pressure, significantly affected by natural resource endowments, seasonal fluctuations, regional absorption capacity, and policy changes. Attention should be paid to resource fluctuations, regional absorption capacity, and policy changes [56][57]. 3.4 Market Characteristics - **Primary market**: In the second half of 2025, 10 public REITs were issued, with the largest number in the consumption infrastructure category. New - type infrastructure REITs with data centers as underlying assets were launched for the first time. The primary market recovered, with a significant increase in issuance scale, but the subscription multiples and first - day gains declined compared to the first half of the year [61][62]. - **Secondary market**: In the second half of 2025, the secondary - market prices of public REITs were under pressure. The CSI REITs Total Return Index had a cumulative decline of 11.48% by December 24, 2025, and the annual return dropped to - 1.51%. The trading activity declined in the second half of the year, and there would be large - scale lock - up expirations at the end of the year, which might increase liquidity but also test prices in the short term [69][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ding Tai Gao Ke and Zhong Tu Gao Xin, and a "Buy" rating for Da Zu Suo Kong and Ying Nuo Ji Guo [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong demand for AI infrastructure driving a new expansion cycle in the PCB industry, with significant investments from global tech giants [15] - The PCB equipment sector is experiencing accelerated upgrades, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers due to rising precision and complexity requirements [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of core consumables like drilling needles, which are expected to see significant growth in both volume and price due to AI-driven demand [9] Industry Overview - The PCB industry is projected to grow from $73.57 billion in 2024 to $96.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.6% [15][22] - The global PCB market is expected to see a revenue increase of 7.6% and a production increase of 7.8% in 2025, driven by AI infrastructure investments [15] - The demand for high-layer and HDI boards is expected to grow significantly, with 18-layer and above boards projected to see a 40.2% increase in market value in 2024 [18][22] Key Companies and Their Forecasts - Ding Tai Gao Ke is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.99 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 141.99, maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating [4] - Zhong Tu Gao Xin is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.51 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 57.05, also rated as "Strong Buy" [4] - Da Zu Suo Kong is projected to have an EPS of 1.77 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 68.67, rated as "Buy" [4] - Ying Nuo Ji Guo is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.30 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 152.09, rated as "Buy" [4] Market Trends - The report identifies a shift towards high-end PCB products driven by AI applications, with increasing requirements for precision and complexity in manufacturing processes [10][11] - The demand for PCB drilling equipment is expected to grow from $1.47 billion in 2024 to $2.40 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 10.3% [35] - The exposure equipment market is projected to grow from $1.20 billion in 2024 to $1.94 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 10% [43] Competitive Landscape - Domestic manufacturers are gaining market share in high-end PCB equipment, with companies like Da Zu Suo Kong and Xin Qi Wei Zhuang making significant strides against foreign competitors [11][42] - The report notes that the competitive landscape for drilling needles is favorable for domestic firms, with Ding Tai Gao Ke leading the global market share [9][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market generally rose today, with increased valuations, trading sentiment, and a shift towards small - cap value stocks [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - Most underlying stock industries rose, with different performance in different industries in the convertible bond market [3]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: Trading sentiment in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a 11.42% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a 4.29% month - on - month increase; the net out - flow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds increased. The weighted average closing price of all convertible bonds was 135.01 yuan, a 0.61% increase from yesterday. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 201.30 yuan, a 0.71% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.74 yuan, a 0.37% increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 130.05 yuan, a 0.17% increase [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) increased to 60.89%, a 1.84pct increase from yesterday. The largest change in proportion was in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 7.61%, a 1.05pct decrease from yesterday. There were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 133.64 yuan, a 0.48% increase from yesterday [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuations increased. The fitted conversion premium rate for 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a 0.14pct increase from yesterday. The overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a 0.86% increase from yesterday. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a 0.27pct decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a 0.38pct decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a 0.10pct decrease [2]. Industry Performance - Underlying stock industries: 27 industries rose. The top three rising industries were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three falling industries were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - Convertible bond market: 23 industries rose. The top three rising industries were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three falling industries were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Different indicators for different sectors: - Closing price: The large - cycle sector rose 1.53%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.49%, the technology sector rose 0.21%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.46%, and the large - finance sector fell 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased 1.5pct, the manufacturing sector decreased 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector rose 2.65%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.69%, the technology sector rose 0.99%, the large - consumption sector rose 1.19%, and the large - finance sector fell 0.47% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector rose 2.1pct, the manufacturing sector rose 0.75pct, the technology sector rose 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector rose 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector fell 0.79pct [4]. Other Data - Main index performance: Different indices showed different price levels and growth rates, such as the CSI Convertible Bond Index closing at 493.46, with a daily increase of 0.63%, a one - week increase of 2.13%, a one - month increase of 1.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.03% [6]. - Style index performance: Small - cap indices generally had better performance than large - cap indices [9]. - Convertible bond valuation: The fitted premium rate for 100 - yuan par value was 33.71%, a 0.08pct increase; the valuation repair index was 3.29%, a 0.13pct decrease; the overall weighted average par value was 101.53, a 0.84% increase; the median price was 133.64, a 0.48% increase [16][17]. - Industry rotation: Industries such as national defense and military industry, light industry manufacturing, and mechanical equipment led the rise, with detailed data on stock price changes, valuation quantiles, etc. [54].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Securities with a target price of 9.45 RMB [1][6]. Core Views - Nanjing Securities, as a state-owned broker in Nanjing, leverages its local government background to enhance resource collaboration and has a stable shareholding structure [6][7]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is currently below the industry average but shows potential for improvement due to increasing leverage and a favorable debt structure [8][29]. - The business layout is dominated by capital-intensive operations, with a significant portion of revenue coming from proprietary trading, which aligns well with industry trends [6][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,147 million RMB in 2024 to 3,894 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,002 million RMB in 2024 to 1,462 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 7% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 RMB in 2024 to 0.40 RMB in 2027 [2]. Business Performance - The company has a high reliance on capital-intensive business, with an average revenue contribution of 69.1% from such operations from 2022 to 2024, significantly above the industry average of 49% [6][21]. - The brokerage business is transitioning towards wealth management, with expected net income from this segment to reach 7.78 million RMB in 2025 [9]. - Investment banking revenue is projected to decline slightly, with net income expected to be 1.67 million RMB in 2025 [9]. Leverage and Profitability - The financial leverage of Nanjing Securities has increased from 2.51X in 2022 to 3.76X in 2025, narrowing the gap with industry averages [8][38]. - The company's annualized ROE for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 6.8%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the industry average, indicating room for improvement [29][38]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.8 for the year 2026, leading to a target price of 9.45 RMB based on the expected performance and capital strength post-equity financing [10][8]. - The anticipated capital increase of 5 billion RMB is expected to significantly enhance the company's capital strength and support business development [8][10].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 货币政策重点在于调结构 ——2025 年四季度货币政策委员会例会学习心得 事 项 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中国人民银行发布四季度货币政策委员会例会，我们学习 心得如下。 4、央行删掉了"防范资金空转"的表述，这意味着一旦国内经济有较大下行 压力，央行货币政策的掣肘相对较小，可随时灵活加码。 5、总而言之，四季度例会没有更改我们对于后续贷款增速和 M2 增速回落的 判断，宏观流动性最宽松的时间段可能已经过去，这意味着估值进一步抬升存 在难度，资本市场要更关注基本面。 6、对于权益资产而言，当下供需均衡仍在改善的路径上，且股债比较指标（股 债夏普比率差值）也显示股票更具配置优势。我们战略看多股票的观点不变。 但我们提示股票拔估值的摩擦力会越来越大，要更关注基本面和安全边际。 7、对于债市而言，十年期国债收益率突破前低需要货币政策的超预期的非常 规宽松，四季度货政例会看不到这一信号。后续只要经济循环和资本市场风险 偏好在持续改善，那么 2%以下的十年期国债其上行压力仍存。 风险提示： 货币政策超预期 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 1、 ...