Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Stone Technology (688169) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth despite challenges in the overseas market, with a notable increase in sales driven by the expansion of its product range and brand strength [1][8] - The company's profitability may face pressure due to self-subsidy impacts, with a slight decrease in net profit margin observed [8] - The report highlights the potential for future growth through new product launches, particularly in the lawn mower segment, which could become a significant revenue driver [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 11,945 million - 2025: 18,845 million (38.0% YoY growth) - 2026: 23,513 million (57.8% YoY growth) - 2027: 28,119 million (24.8% YoY growth) [3] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,977 million - 2025: 1,737 million (-3.6% YoY) - 2026: 2,360 million (35.9% YoY) - 2027: 3,037 million (28.7% YoY) [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 7.63 - 2025: 6.70 - 2026: 9.11 - 2027: 11.72 [3] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the stock is set at 224.1 yuan, with the current price at 151.90 yuan [4] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.7 for 2025, decreasing to 13.0 by 2027 [8] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the recent bankruptcy of iRobot may alter the competitive landscape, potentially benefiting leading companies like Stone Technology [8] - The company has shown strong growth in retail sales for its vacuum and floor cleaning machines, significantly outpacing industry averages [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Group 2: Core Insights - The bank wealth management market continues to show structural characteristics dominated by fixed income products, with fixed income products accounting for 98.5% of new issuances, reflecting a trend towards low-threshold and inclusive financial products [12][21] - The public fund market exhibits a "stable total, dramatic structural change" with a total of 58 new funds launched, raising 54.807 billion RMB, indicating a slight increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period [25][26] - The insurance market saw a significant contraction in new product launches, with a total of 114 new insurance products, down 33.33% from the previous period, indicating a rational market adjustment after a peak [37][41] Group 3: Summary by Sections Bank Wealth Management Products - A total of 1202 new wealth management products were launched, remaining stable compared to the previous period [12] - Fixed income products dominate the market, with 825 new products representing 68.64% of total issuances, indicating a preference for "fixed income plus" strategies [21] - The majority of new products have a term of 1 year to 3 years, accounting for 32.95% of total new issuances, reflecting a balance between liquidity needs and stable returns for high-net-worth clients [22] Fund Products - The bond fund issuance reached 28.587 billion RMB, accounting for 52.16% of total new fund issuance, marking a significant return to dominance [30] - Equity fund issuance has declined, with stock funds raising 12.157 billion RMB and mixed funds 5.749 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards "low scale, high quantity" issuance [33] - The design of new fund products is increasingly standardized and replicable, with a significant proportion of passive index products being launched [34] Insurance Products - The total number of new insurance products decreased significantly, with life insurance and annuity products both seeing substantial declines [37] - The structure of new insurance products remains balanced, with life insurance accounting for 50.88% and annuity insurance 49.12% of new issuances [41] - Traditional annuity products have regained dominance, reflecting a market preference for predictable cash flows amid economic uncertainty [47]

Liquidity - Leverage funds net inflow has returned to historical highs, with net inflow of 397 billion CNY, ranking in the 91st percentile over the past three years[7] - The new issuance of equity public funds increased to 94.4 billion CNY, up from 43 billion CNY, ranking in the 76th percentile[8] - Stock buybacks amounted to 9 billion CNY, up from 7 billion CNY, ranking in the 18th percentile[26] Demand - Equity financing reached 221 billion CNY, ranking in the 84th percentile, while net reduction in industrial capital was 126 billion CNY, ranking in the 92nd percentile[29] - Southbound capital net inflow dropped to 23 billion CNY, ranking in the 16th percentile[42] - The total market value of restricted shares released was 1921.3 billion CNY, significantly up from 349.2 billion CNY, ranking in the 98th percentile[39] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for central enterprises increased by 17 percentage points to 44%, while the construction materials sector rose by 10 percentage points to 71%[60] - The media sector saw a decline of 33 percentage points to 36%, and the computer sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 18%[68] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 1034.2 billion CNY, down by 397.3 billion CNY from the previous value, ranking in the 51.3 percentile over the past five years[2] - Overall market strength was observed with major indices achieving eight consecutive days of gains, indicating a positive market sentiment[74]

Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

Group 1: CDS Prices and Market Trends - Oracle's 5-year CDS price reached 145.5 basis points, significantly higher than Apple's 25.7, Amazon's 35.9, Google's 39.9, and Microsoft's 35.9 basis points, but lower than the high-yield bond basket's 315.1 basis points[4] - Despite Oracle's CDS price increase, the North American high-yield bond basket's CDS price fell to 315.1 basis points, the lowest since September 26[6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts to be lower and delayed, with the SOFR futures curve's low point at 3.1%, unchanged from October but lower than December's 3.2%[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[15] - The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index's equity risk premium (ERP) stands at 4.2%, below the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[17] - China's 10-year government bond forward arbitrage return is at 35 basis points, 65 basis points higher than December 2016 levels[21] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Investors maintain expectations that the European Central Bank will not cut rates further, with the Euribor futures curve's low point at 2.1%, higher than previous months[12] - The divergence in the copper-gold price ratio and offshore RMB exchange rate signals inconsistent trends, with the copper-gold ratio dropping to 2.7 and the offshore RMB rising to 7.0[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.8, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [19]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 2.98%, outperforming the broader market by 1.03 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.74%), Ping An (+3.51%), and China Pacific (+3.14%) [1]. - As of November 2025, the insurance industry is projected to achieve a cumulative original premium of 5.76 trillion yuan, with property insurance at 1.34 trillion yuan and life insurance at 4.42 trillion yuan [2]. - The report highlights a potential short-term upward trend in long-term interest rates, which may benefit the insurance sector. Despite anticipated performance pressure due to high investment bases in 2026, the report suggests that stabilizing interest rates and improving "spread" (investment income minus comprehensive liability costs) could drive valuation recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's absolute performance over the past 12 months is 33.4%, with a relative performance of 16.6% compared to the benchmark [6]. Company Valuations - The report provides PEV valuations for life insurance companies: China Life at 0.89x, Ping An at 0.86x, New China at 0.8x, and China Pacific at 0.69x. For H-shares, Ping An is at 0.74x, New China at 0.57x, and China Pacific at 0.54x [4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant valuation recovery potential, such as China Life H and China Pacific [3]. Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025E for key companies are as follows: China Pacific at 5.68 yuan, China Life at 6.34 yuan, New China at 12.62 yuan, China Pacific at 3.00 yuan, and China Property at 2.07 yuan. The report also provides PE and PB ratios for these companies, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of Hainan's customs closure and the winter sports season on service consumption, predicting a robust demand for hospitality and travel services in 2026. Notably, Hainan's first week of duty-free shopping post-closure saw sales of 1.1 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 54.9% [4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic ski and ice tourism ticket bookings, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 70% from November 2025 to February 2026 [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resources services, the duty-free sector, and internet platforms that integrate online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion RMB [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 1.05% in the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, while the overall A-share market rose by 2.77% [7][10]. - The report notes that the hospitality sector, including hotels, saw varied performance, with some companies like Green Tea Group and Dingdong Maicai showing significant gains [16][19]. Important Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the consumer services sector include share buybacks and financial updates, such as Guilin Tourism's court ruling to recover illegal profits of 52.15 million RMB [31][30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the upcoming month, including Nanjing Commercial Travel and Changbai Mountain [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anker Innovations, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][26]. Core Insights - Anker Innovations is focusing on long-term value and has shown a commitment to innovation and employee engagement through its recent anniversary celebration and product demonstrations [2][3]. - The company has experienced a recovery in marginal data since November, with sales growth of approximately 10% year-on-year in October and nearly 20% in November, indicating a positive trend [3][4]. - The upcoming CES exhibition in January is anticipated to showcase new products, potentially enhancing the company's valuation [3][4]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 24,710 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.1%. This is expected to grow to 45,675 million by 2027, with a decreasing growth rate of 19.7% [4][19]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2,114 million in 2024, growing to 3,785 million by 2027, with a growth rate of 30.9% in 2024 [4][19]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.94 yuan in 2024 to 7.06 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 29 to 16 over the same period [4][19]. Market Performance - Anker Innovations has shown a significant stock price recovery potential, with a target price set at 145 yuan, compared to the current price of 113.63 yuan [4][5].

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 化妆品行业跟踪：林清轩通过港交所聆讯 2025年12月29日 分析师 汤秀洁 执业编号：S0360525080008 邮箱：tangxiujie@hcyjs.com 联系人 王笑飞 执业编号：S0360125090005 邮箱：wangxiaofei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。华创证券对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考， 并不构成本公司对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 摘要 证券研究报告 此页包含机密资料，其全部或任何部分不可被复制或再发送。本页不构成对任何产品的要约出售/购买、招揽或建议。关于免责声明全文，详见本PPT最后部分。 2 林清轩：甄选高山红山茶花，开创以油养肤理念，连续11年位居精华油榜首，线下554家门店并逐步发力电商，精耕细作铸就国货高端品牌。 行业：预测2025年以油养肤市场规模从2024年77亿元同比增长45%至 ...

宏观研究 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 52 期 沥青开工率明显改善 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡回升。截至 12 月 21 日，该指数为 5.22%，环比前 一周上行 0.06 个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。我们统计的 67 个城 市，截至 12 月 26 日当周，商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12 月前 26 日累计同 比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善。截至 12 月 24 当周，开工率为 31.3%， 较上周环比回升 3.7 个点，较去年同期高 5.4 个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4546.2 美金/盎司，上 涨 4.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12218 美元/吨，上涨 4.1%；美油收于 56.7 美 元/桶，上涨 1.1%，布油收于 60.6 美元/桶，上涨 1.4% （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行。12 月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速- 11%，前值-17%。12 月前三周累计同比-18.8%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 ...