Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [28]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with SF Express and YTO Express continuing to outperform the industry [2]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the potential for revenue and performance elasticity in the upcoming verification period [3]. - The report recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, noting their strong performance metrics and resilience in a slowing industry [3]. - Jitu Express is also recommended due to its significant growth in Southeast Asia, which supports stable profitability in the domestic market [3]. - SF Express is viewed positively despite short-term performance pressure, with effective operational activation mechanisms driving business scale expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In November, the industry completed a business volume of 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a cumulative volume of 180.74 billion pieces for the year, up 14.9% [6]. - Industry revenue in November was 137.65 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for the year reached 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [6]. - The average revenue per piece in November was 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.50 yuan, down 6.8% [6]. Company Performance - In November, SF Express led the industry with a business volume growth rate of 20.1%, followed by Shentong Express at 14.7% and YTO Express at 13.6% [6]. - Shentong Express reported the highest revenue growth in November at 33.1%, while YTO Express and SF Express had growth rates of 11.1% and 9.9%, respectively [6]. - The average revenue per piece for Shentong Express was 2.41 yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year, while SF Express reported 13.47 yuan, down 8.5% [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend as a key driver for performance elasticity among express delivery companies [3]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure peak for SF Express has passed, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [4]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) stands at 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the pesticide industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][39]. Core Insights - The demand for glufosinate-ammonium is expected to continue growing due to improved cost-effectiveness and accelerated registration processes overseas [2]. - The glufosinate-ammonium industry has seen significant improvements in operational rates and inventory levels, with production increasing by 27.85% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global acceptance of glufosinate-ammonium, particularly in key agricultural markets such as the US, Canada, and Brazil, where registration certificates have expanded rapidly [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Significant Improvement in Cost-Effectiveness of Glufosinate-Ammonium - The unit efficacy of glufosinate-ammonium is approximately 3.5 times that of glyphosate, with refined glufosinate-ammonium reaching about 6.3 times, making it more cost-effective despite higher nominal prices [8][11]. 2. Rapid Expansion of Overseas Registration Certificates for Glufosinate-Ammonium - The US saw a surge in registration certificates from 13 in 2019 to 90 in 2020, maintaining a high level in subsequent years, while Brazil and Canada have also shown significant growth in registrations [13][16]. 3. Biodiesel Demand Enhancing Economic Viability of Canola Cultivation - Canola-related applications account for approximately 39% of glufosinate-ammonium's downstream demand, driven by the increasing economic viability of canola cultivation in the context of biodiesel production [22][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on glufosinate-ammonium and refined glufosinate-ammonium industries, particularly companies like Lier Chemical and Hebei Chengxin, which are expected to seize opportunities in the accelerating industry growth [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insomnia treatment market, highlighting the potential for new drug sales performance in this sector [20][32]. Core Insights - The insomnia treatment market in China is characterized by a significant unmet need, with over 200 million individuals estimated to suffer from insomnia symptoms, representing a large consumer market potential [16][24]. - The report emphasizes the shift towards innovative insomnia medications, particularly focusing on new types of benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BZRAs) and dual orexin receptor antagonists (DORAs) as key areas for development [25][38]. - The introduction of new drugs like JY-202 (地达西尼) and DORA medications is expected to reshape the market dynamics, with a forecasted rapid increase in market share and sales [34][39]. Market Overview - The insomnia drug market in China has seen stagnant growth due to a lack of new effective treatments, with the market size in 2023 estimated at 31.62 billion yuan [24]. - The report outlines the historical sales performance of major insomnia medications, indicating a long gap since the last new product launch in 2007, which has contributed to the current market stagnation [24][25]. - The report projects a significant increase in the market size and sales for innovative insomnia drugs, particularly with the anticipated approval and market entry of new products [34][39]. Drug Development Trends - The report identifies two main directions for insomnia drug innovation: improvements on existing BZRAs and the development of DORAs, which are expected to have lower addiction risks and better patient compliance [25][38]. - The new drug JY-202 is highlighted for its selective action on the GABAA receptor, which may reduce side effects associated with traditional insomnia medications [34]. - The report also notes the successful clinical trial results for DORAs, which have shown significant improvements in sleep quality without the risk of addiction, making them suitable for broader consumer use [38][39]. Key Players and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like 京新药业 (JY-202) and 先声药业 (DORA medications) as they are positioned to capitalize on the emerging market opportunities in insomnia treatment [34][39]. - It recommends monitoring the sales performance of these new drugs as they enter the market, particularly in the context of changing consumer behavior and increasing awareness of sleep health [20][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107) [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 85% of Hubei Jingyi Expressway Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of 2.409 billion yuan, avoiding equity dilution and ensuring stable earnings growth [6] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's profitability and dividend capacity, with projected net profits from the acquired asset reaching 2.4 billion yuan in 2026, 2.5 billion yuan in 2027, and 2.7 billion yuan in 2028 [6] - The report emphasizes the company's strategy of integrating high-quality road assets to strengthen its core business and enhance shareholder returns [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10,362 million yuan, 9,946 million yuan, 10,246 million yuan, and 10,717 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, and 4.6% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,459 million yuan in 2024, 1,630 million yuan in 2025, 1,728 million yuan in 2026, and 1,867 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 22.9%, 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.1% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.48 yuan in 2024, 0.53 yuan in 2025, 0.56 yuan in 2026, and 0.61 yuan in 2027 [2] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 7.70 yuan for A-shares and 6.81 HKD for H-shares, indicating a potential upside of 24% and 27% from the current prices respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 13 in 2025 to 10 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to remain stable at around 0.9 [2][3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 美光科技（MU）FY2026Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 各业务单元均创营收记录，毛利率大幅超过指引上限 会议地点：线上 事项： 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美光科技发布 FY26 Q1 报告，并召开业绩说明会。 评论： 1. 总体业绩情况：25Q4（即 FY26Q1）实现营收 136.43 亿美元（QoQ+20.6%， YoY+56.7%），高于指引中值（指引中值为 125 亿美元）。FY26Q1，公司总营 收、DRAM 和 NAND 营收、HBM 和数据中心营收以及各业务部门营收均创 纪录。公司 DRAM 和 NAND 营收创下新高得益于终端市场强劲需求推动的出 货量增长，以及行业 DRAM 和 NAND 供应紧张、定价策略有效和产品组合优 化推动的产品价格提升。FY2026Q1的Non-gaap毛利率为56.8%（QoQ+11.1pct， YoY+17.3pct），超过指引区间上限（指引为 51.5%上下浮动 100 个基点），主 要得益于更高的定价、有效的成本控制以及有利的产品组合。 2.数据中心市场预期及进展情况：公司 FY2026Q1 数据中心业务部门营收创下 24 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 equity market outlook indicates strong liquidity support, with a focus on performance and thematic trends, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace and CPO [2][7] - The valuation of the equity market has risen to historical highs, with potential concerns about future profit and revenue growth rates compared to valuation percentiles, suggesting further upside may exist [2][39] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors with significant ROE improvements, such as steel, media, and military industries, which may present investment opportunities [39] Group 2 - The 2026 convertible bond market is expected to see gradual supply and demand recovery, with valuations likely to remain volatile [3][4] - Supply-side improvements are noted, with new bond issuances increasing year-on-year, although still at historically low levels, and regulatory changes may further influence supply dynamics [3][46] - Demand is shifting towards relative return investors, with public funds increasing their holdings in convertible bonds, indicating a potential easing of the supply-demand imbalance [3][16] Group 3 - The report recommends a "barbell" strategy in the current high-price, high-valuation environment, emphasizing the need to focus on elastic convertible bonds that may offer valuation advantages [5][9] - There is a noted shift in the demand for traditional core convertible bonds, with a focus on large-cap and dividend-paying bonds as potential substitutes in a low-interest-rate environment [5][9] - The valuation advantage of near-term convertible bonds is highlighted, suggesting that they may present opportunities for investors, while caution is advised regarding new bonds due to high valuation differentials [5][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, 2025, half of the convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation compressed month - on - month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.06% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.23%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22%. The market style favored large - cap value stocks. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The valuation compressed, with the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate at 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day [2]. - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%). In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose, with the top three industries with the largest increases being medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 483.43, up 0.06% day - on - day, 0.07% in the past week, down 1.49% in the past month, and up 16.61% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index closed at 234.78, up 0.28% day - on - day, down 0.11% in the past week, down 1.09% in the past month, and up 20.73% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16% day - on - day, down 0.62% in the past week, down 2.41% in the past month, and up 15.65% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13053.97, down 1.29% day - on - day, down 1.97% in the past week, down 1.12% in the past month, and up 25.34% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3107.06, down 2.17% day - on - day, down 3.18% in the past week, up 0.06% in the past month, and up 45.08% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.906 billion yuan, up 3.43% month - on - month; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.676801 trillion yuan, down 8.59% month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 29.167 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.16 bp to 1.84% [1][9]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 195.15 yuan, down 0.62%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.36 yuan, up 0.35%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.03 yuan, with no change [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 53.89%, up 1.55 pct from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range decreased by 1.55 pct to 32.38%. The price median was 130.90 yuan, up 0.40% from the previous day [2]. - The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 98.74 yuan, up 0.28% from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.62%, up 0.67 pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 85.17%, up 0.35 pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.46%, down 0.87 pct [2]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 18 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three industries with the largest increases were medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. - In terms of closing prices, large - cycle industries rose 0.02%, manufacturing industries fell 0.10%, technology industries rose 0.03%, large - consumption industries rose 0.18%, and large - finance industries fell 0.92% [3]. - In terms of conversion premium rates, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.44 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.046 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.81 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.78 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 0.71 pct [3]. - In terms of conversion values, large - cycle industries rose 0.39%, manufacturing industries fell 0.13%, technology industries rose 0.33%, large - consumption industries rose 0.52%, and large - finance industries fell 0.40% [3]. - In terms of pure - bond premium rates, large - cycle industries increased by 0.022 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 0.08 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.018 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.22 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 1.1 pct [4]. V. Industry Rotation - The banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the rise. The daily increase rates of the banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries in the stock market were 1.97%, 1.89%, and 1.25% respectively; the daily increase rates in the convertible bond market were 0.33%, 0.16%, and 0.04% respectively [59].

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,061 | 2,347 | 2,835 | 3,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 428 | 564 | 696 | 869 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% | 31.7% | 23.3% | 25.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.89 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.81 | | 市盈率(倍) | 48 | 41 | 33 | 27 | | 市净率(倍) | 13.0 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 17 日收盘价 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 18 日 春节旺季临近，关注夸克 AI ...

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]