Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a recovery in market expectations driven by three potential catalysts: the implementation of subsidy policies, better-than-expected export figures in Q1 (with November exports increasing by 45%), and stronger-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival [1]. - Retail sales for Q4 2025 have been revised downwards due to previous expectations of demand being pulled forward, with a forecast of a 14% decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, followed by a slight growth of 0.3% in 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the performance of key automotive companies, recommending Geely and JAC Motors due to their strong product cycles and potential for significant profit increases [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, discount rates slightly decreased, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month [4]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while retail sales fell by 9.2% year-on-year [4]. - The report provides detailed sales figures for new energy vehicle manufacturers, with BYD delivering 480,186 units in November, a 5.3% year-on-year decline but an 8.7% increase from the previous month [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index increased by 2.66% this week, ranking 12th out of 29 sectors [9]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance is improving, with a significant number of stocks showing positive growth [31]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector is reported at 33, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [31].

Group 1: Core Narrative and Logic - The popular narrative suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, which in turn causes the renminbi to appreciate, potentially harming export competitiveness[1] - The logic of this narrative is questioned on two fronts: 1) Federal Reserve rate cuts do not necessarily equate to a weakening dollar; 2) Renminbi appreciation does not necessarily harm export competitiveness[1] - The correlation between the Federal Reserve's policy rate adjustments and the dollar index is weak, with a monthly correlation coefficient of only 0.04 since October 1982[3] Group 2: Renminbi Exchange Rate Analysis - The renminbi's exchange rate is currently considered fairly valued, with deviations from the "value center" ranging from 0% to 2%[7] - The renminbi's appreciation since May has released some corporate foreign exchange positions, widening the potential volatility range of the exchange rate[1] - The exchange rate's future trajectory will depend on several factors, including valuation, policy direction, internal supply and demand, and external responses[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on AI equipment and consumables, as well as commercial aerospace [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth in demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs driven by the surge in AI technology and applications. The global PCB industry is projected to grow from $73.6 billion in 2024 to $96.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.6% [7][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in PCB equipment and consumables, particularly in drilling and exposure equipment, which are expected to see significant market growth due to the increasing complexity of AI applications [22][24]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a critical phase with the successful launch of reusable rockets, which could significantly reduce satellite launch costs and accelerate satellite networking processes [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Investment Views - The report discusses the impact of AI on PCB demand, noting that the need for high-density and high-layer PCBs is increasing, which will drive the demand for advanced drilling and exposure equipment [22][24]. - Key companies to watch include Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-New in the consumables sector, and Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Micro-Assembly in the equipment sector [7][24]. - The report suggests that the equipment industry is entering a golden age due to the expansion of AI infrastructure, with significant growth expected in drilling and exposure equipment markets [22][24]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data, including the manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the overall health of the mechanical industry [26][30]. - The mechanical sector has shown a strong performance, with a 4.5% increase in the sector index, outperforming the broader market indices [11][16]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the mechanical sector, with several companies rated as "Strong Buy," indicating strong expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the low-altitude economy sector [1] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Transportation has released the "Advanced Air Mobility National Strategy 2026-2036" and the "Advanced Air Mobility Comprehensive Plan," aiming to position the U.S. as a leader in aviation by establishing a robust AAM system [4][5] - The report emphasizes that both Chinese and U.S. companies are highly competitive in the low-altitude economy, with Chinese firms leading in the eVTOL sector, and anticipates that both countries will dominate the global market [21][22] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has established statistical classifications for the low-altitude economy, indicating a significant acceleration in its development [23][27] Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy encompasses four main categories: low-altitude manufacturing, low-altitude operations, low-altitude infrastructure and information services, and low-altitude supporting industries, with a total of 23 subcategories and 65 detailed classifications [23][24] - The "Low Altitude Economy and Its Core Industry Statistical Classification" aims to define the scope and scale of the low-altitude economy, fulfilling the statistical needs of various governmental and societal stakeholders [23][24] Performance Metrics - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index rose by 4.6% in the week ending December 26, 2025, and increased by 20% over the year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 18.4% [32][33] - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with notable increases in companies such as Guolian Aviation (32%), Xinjingang (23%), and Zhongfu Shenying (19%) [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the low-altitude economy, including: 1. Manufacturing: Key players include Wan Feng Aowei (eVTOL and general aviation), Xirui (general aviation), and Yihang Intelligent (eVTOL) [41] 2. Supply Chain: Companies like Zongshen Power and Yingboer are highlighted for their roles in the aviation engine and electric control markets [41] 3. Low-altitude Digitalization: Companies such as Lais Information and Sichuan Jiuzhou are noted for their contributions to low-altitude digital infrastructure [41] 4. Operations: Companies like CITIC Haizhi and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism are recognized for exploring commercial applications in low-altitude operations [42]

- The report introduces multiple quantitative models for market timing, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models, such as the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Intelligent Algorithm Model," "Limit-Up/Down Model," "Up/Down Return Difference Model," "Calendar Effect Model," and "Long-Term Momentum Model" [1][8][11] - The "Volume Model" is neutral for all broad-based indices in the short term, while the "Feature Institutional Model" is bullish, and the "Feature Volume Model" is bearish. The "Intelligent Algorithm Model" is neutral for both CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [11][63] - The "Limit-Up/Down Model" and "Up/Down Return Difference Model" are bullish for all broad-based indices in the medium term, while the "Calendar Effect Model" remains neutral [12][64] - The "Long-Term Momentum Model" is bullish for the long term [13][65] - The "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" is bullish for A-shares, while the "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" is neutral [14][66] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover to Volatility Model" is bullish, while the "Up/Down Return Difference Model" is neutral in the medium term [15][67] - The report emphasizes that market timing requires a multi-cycle, multi-strategy model system, combining defensive and aggressive strategies to achieve a balanced approach [8] - Backtesting results for the models indicate that the "Double Bottom Pattern" portfolio outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.99% this week, with a cumulative return of 16.12% since December 31, 2020, compared to the index's 14.13% [38] - The "Cup and Handle Pattern" portfolio outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.32% this week but has underperformed the index by -1.36% cumulatively since December 31, 2020 [38]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the total heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The total heat indicator for individual stocks is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts, normalized by the market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The report constructs a rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "others" group has the highest change rate[13][16] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 36.71% in 2025[16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on concept heat: a "TOP" portfolio consisting of the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat in the hottest concepts, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio consisting of the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat in the hottest concepts[32][33] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 42.4% in 2025[34] - The heat change rate (MA2) for broad-based indices this week shows that the CSI 500 index has the highest increase of 7.1%, while the CSI 300 index has the largest decrease of 5.08%[2][16] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan primary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are retail, building materials, automotive, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals, while the top five industries with the highest negative change rates are banking, coal, media, computer, and electronics[2][27] - The heat change rate (MA2) for Shenwan secondary industries this week shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are environmental equipment II, special steel II, glass fiber, beverage and dairy, and aerospace equipment II[2][27] - The top five concepts with the highest heat change rates this week are sugar substitute, automotive dismantling, civil explosives, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and PVDF concept[2][28]

Group 1: Overall Industrial Profit Trends - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises decreased to -13.1%, down from -5.5% in the previous month[2] - As of November, inventory increased by 4.6% year-on-year, compared to 3.7% in the previous month[2] - State-owned industrial enterprises saw a profit growth rate of -17.0%, while private enterprises had -12.6%, and foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises reported -7.3%[2] Group 2: Midstream Sector Performance - The midstream sector showed a profit growth rate of 6.77% in November, the only sector with positive growth, compared to -3.85% previously[5] - Midstream revenue growth was 4.66% in November, outperforming other sectors[5] - The midstream PPI turned positive for the first time since June 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04%[19] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 57.4%, driven by rapid development in aerospace and intelligent products[5] - The mining sector's profit growth was -21.16%, while manufacturing and electric heat, gas, and water sectors reported -13.54% and -1.59%, respectively[31] - The midstream sector's profit margin in November was 5.7%, higher than the previous year's 5.5%[19]

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