Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK) with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, with average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong IP platform and diversified product matrix, which are expected to continue meeting the demand in the trendy toy market. The ability to sustain and innovate across various IPs is emphasized as a key strength [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 13,038 - 2025: 37,195 - 2026: 52,533 - 2027: 64,823 [2][8] - Net profit (in million HKD) projections are: - 2024: 3,125 - 2025: 12,235 - 2026: 17,475 - 2027: 21,734 [2][8] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to grow from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260126 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债回调，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.19%、上证综指环比下降 0.09%、深证成 指环比下降 0.85%、创业板指环比下降 0.91%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.57%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.24%。 市场风格：中盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.06%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.86%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 1.33%、小盘成长环比 下降 2.09%、小盘价值环比下降 0.15%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 927.91 亿元，环比 减少 3.02%；万得全 A 总成交额为 32806.44 亿元，环比增长 5.21%；沪深两 市主力净流出 757.10 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.56bp 至 1.82%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.04 元，环比昨日下降 1.07%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 205.54 元，环比 下降 0.59%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - issue scale of active equity funds reached a new high since 2022. - The capital supply and demand sides both contracted. - The trading congestion showed different trends in various industries. - The self - media A - share search popularity and retail investor capital inflows decreased. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Capital Liquidity: The New - issue Scale of Active Equity Funds Reached a New High Since 2022 1.1 Public Offering Equity New - issue Scale Increased - The newly - established share of public offering equity funds last week was 261.5 billion, a significant increase from the previous value of 97.4 billion. Among them, the newly - issued active funds were 217.1 billion, reaching a new high since 2022, and the newly - issued passive index funds were 44.3 billion. [8] 1.2 Margin Trading Funds: Net Outflow - The latest margin financing balance of 2.71 trillion decreased from the previous value, while the securities lending balance of 1.733 billion increased. The overall balance accounted for 2.61% of the floating - market value, at the 99th percentile in the past three years. - Margin trading funds had a net inflow of about - 8.11 billion last week, a sharp drop from the previous net inflow of 105.22 billion, at the 19th percentile in the past three years. The turnover accounted for 9.8% of the total A - share turnover, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous value. - The margin trading turnover ratio last week was 50.2%, down from 71.0% in the previous period, at the 88th percentile in the past three years. - The number of individual investors in margin trading business reached 7.933 million, with the average daily trading investors decreasing by 111,000 from the previous value. - Margin trading mainly had a net inflow of 5.07 billion in the non - ferrous metals industry, 2.14 billion in the non - banking financial industry, and 1.43 billion in the banking industry; and a net outflow of 4.06 billion in the electronics industry, 3.68 billion in the computer industry, and 2.63 billion in the media industry. [12][13][19] 1.3 Stock - type ETFs: Net Inflow of - 333.05 Billion, at the 0th Percentile in the Past Three Years - The overall net inflow of stock - type ETFs last week was - 333.05 billion, a significant drop from the previous net inflow of - 141.58 billion. The net flow was at the 0th percentile in the past three years, with large - cap ETFs having a net inflow of - 396.19 billion and thematic ETFs having a net inflow of 4.965 billion. [20] 1.4 Listed Company Repurchases: Repurchase Amount Decreased - The repurchase amount of listed companies last week was 260 million, down from 850 million in the previous period, at the 3rd percentile in the past three years. [22] 1.5 Equity Financing: Amount at the 41st Percentile in the Past Three Years - Based on the listing date, the equity financing amount last week was 715 million, at the 41st percentile in the past three years, including 47 million in IPOs and 669 million in refinancing. [25] 1.6 Industrial Capital Net Reduction Scale Decreased - Last week, industrial capital had an overall increase of 29.1 million and a reduction of - 1.213 billion, with a net reduction of - 1.184 billion, a decrease in scale compared to the previous value of - 1.863 billion. The net reduction scale was at the 90th percentile in the past three years. - By industry, there was a net increase of 0.01 billion in the banking industry last week; and net reductions of - 5.04 billion in the electronics industry, - 1.08 billion in the pharmaceutical industry, and - 0.94 billion in the computer industry. [28][33] 1.7 Restricted - share Unlocking Scale Increased - The market value of unlocked shares last week was 5.842 billion, an increase from the previous value of 5.141 billion, at the 56th percentile in the past three years. The expected market value of unlocked shares this week is 4.051 billion. [35] 1.8 Southbound Capital Net Inflow Increased - The southbound capital flow last week was + 2.101 billion, an increase from + 899 million in the previous week. The weekly net flow intensity was at the 72nd percentile in the past three years. [38] 1.9 Northbound Capital Participation Increased - The trading of northbound capital accounted for 6.9% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares last week, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The participation was at the 50th percentile in the past three years. [41] 2. Trading Congestion: Construction, Home Appliances, and Semiconductors Rose; Light Industry, Building Materials, and Communications Declined 2.1 Growth - themed Industries - The trading popularity percentile of the semiconductor industry increased by 7 percentage points to 23%. [46] 2.2 Value - themed Industries - The home appliance industry rose to 68%, and the insurance industry rose by 5 percentage points to 49%. [52] 2.3 Cycle - themed Industries - The construction industry rose by 10 percentage points to 49%, and the light industry decreased by 30 percentage points to 45%. [57][61] 2.4 TMT - themed Industries - The media industry rose by 6 percentage points to 75%, and the electronics industry rose by 5 percentage points to 29%. [67] 3. Investor Thermometer: Self - media A - share Search Popularity and Retail Investor Capital Inflows Decreased 3.1 Self - media: A - share Search Popularity Decreased - The market continued its structural differentiation last week. Under regulatory cooling, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated slightly upward, and the decline in market trading activity led to a decrease in the self - media A - share search popularity. [71] 3.2 Douyin Users Watching "A - share" Content - The structure distribution of Douyin users watching "A - share" content from January 17th to January 23rd was generally stable. The proportion of high - level cities such as new first - tier and second - tier cities decreased; and the proportion of the young group under 30 years old decreased. [74] 3.3 Kuaishou: "A - share" Video Playback Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the number of "A - share" videos on Kuaishou decreased by 116 compared to the previous period; the playback volume decreased by 2.674 million times; and the interaction volume decreased by 52,000 times. [78] 3.4 Weibo Sentiment: The Outflow of Broad - based ETFs Caused a Rise in Negative Sentiment on Weibo - The overall sentiment on Weibo was stable last week, but the large - scale outflow of broad - based ETFs led to a significant increase in negative sentiment. [80] 3.5 Public Offering Fund Clustering Trend - From January 19th to January 23rd, the public offering fund clustering trend strengthened, with a preference for the growth style and the electronics industry. [83] 3.6 Retail Investor Capital Inflow Decreased - In October 2024, the number of newly - opened accounts was 6.85 million, second only to April 2015 and June 2015 in history; in December 2025, it was 2.6 million, at the 75th percentile in the past decade. - From January 19th to January 23rd, the net inflow of retail investor capital in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares measured by small orders was 119.87 billion, a decrease of 129.43 billion from the previous value, at the 67.8th percentile in the past five years. [89] 3.7 Retail Investor Entry Channels: Download Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the cumulative download volume of Flush was 239,000 times, a decrease of 141,000 times from the previous value; the download volume of Eastmoney was 105,000 times, a decrease of 24,000 times from the previous value. The number of five - star reviews of Flush was 5,340 times, a decrease of 4,501 times from the previous value. [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as investment opportunities arising from policies promoting service consumption [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a 1.80% increase, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62% [8][10]. - The report notes that the hotel and restaurant sectors showed positive performance, with hotel stocks rising by 3.69% and restaurant stocks by 3.31% during the reporting period [18]. Related Companies - Recommended companies include hotels with balanced supply and demand such as Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Huazhu Group, as well as human resources services like Core International and Beijing Renli [5]. - The report also highlights companies in the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, such as China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [5]. - Other notable mentions include online and offline integrated platforms like Meituan and Alibaba, and innovative tourism companies like Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, expecting a robust growth in premiums for listed insurance companies in 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The insurance index decreased by 4.04%, underperforming the market by 3.42 percentage points, with mixed performances among individual stocks [1]. - The China Insurance Association indicated that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance is 1.89% [2]. - China Taiping announced a significant profit increase for 2025, projecting a rise of approximately 215% to 225% compared to 2024, driven by improved net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - The health insurance sector has seen an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade [2]. - Agricultural insurance premiums in China have surpassed 155 billion yuan, with nearly 80% coming from government subsidies [2]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth Projections - In 2025, New China Life is expected to achieve premiums of 195.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a "front-high and back-stable" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - China Pacific Insurance is projected to reach total premiums of 461.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with life insurance being the main growth driver [3]. - ZhongAn Online is expected to achieve premiums of 35.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates steady premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025, primarily driven by life insurance and the expansion of distribution channels [4]. - The property insurance sector is expected to show varied performance, influenced by adjustments in non-auto insurance business [4]. Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector has experienced two weeks of adjustments, mainly due to a slowdown in growth and high valuations [4]. - The report suggests that the performance of listed insurance companies in 2025 will be primarily driven by investment returns, with a favorable outlook for the first half of 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover, with estimates for major life insurance companies indicating potential increases above 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for major life insurance companies, with China Life at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property insurance, the report lists valuations with China Property at 1.15x and PICC at 1.26x [5].

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" for the next 3-6 months, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see steady premium growth in 2025, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels and the expansion of distribution networks [4][3]. - The report highlights that the average premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected to be robust, driven by factors such as improved investment returns and favorable tax policies [2][4]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector has experienced an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 4.04% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.42 percentage points [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like China Life (-3.77%) and Ping An (-3.66%), while China Taiping showed a significant increase of 8.78% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is expected to see a substantial increase in its annual profit, projected to grow by approximately 215% to 843.2 million HKD in 2025, driven by enhanced net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - New China Life's premiums are expected to reach 195.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's total premiums are projected to be 461.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.4%, supported by an 8.1% increase in life insurance premiums [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector has undergone two weeks of adjustments, primarily due to a slowdown in the "New Year" growth and high valuations [4]. - For the medium term, the first half of 2026 is expected to have relatively low base pressure, with an active equity market and a thriving liability side likely to drive performance beyond expectations [4]. - The report indicates that the current stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly alleviates pressure on interest spreads, suggesting potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover towards 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for various companies, indicating that China Life is at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property and casualty insurance, the report lists China Re at 0.60x and China Pacific at 1.09x, with a recommendation order favoring China Taiping and China Ping An [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of service consumption-related policies on investment opportunities [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -7.7%, while the relative performance is -6.9% [3]. Weekly Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a rise of 1.80%, and the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62% [8]. - Notable performers in the sector included SF City with a 34.27% increase and Jiuhua Tourism with a 10.89% increase [5]. Important Announcements - Beijing Human Resources reported a planned reduction of 1.698 million shares by a shareholder, amounting to 313 million yuan, reducing their stake to 5.8% [31]. - Guilin Tourism expects to turn a profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 11 million yuan, driven by a 10% increase in tourist numbers [31]. - Jinling Hotel anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.37% to 90.93% [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the yellow wine industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The yellow wine industry is entering a strategic opportunity period for revival, with companies like Kuaijishan achieving significant product innovation and market expansion, resulting in a stock price increase of over 85% in the year [5]. - The report highlights three key questions regarding the revival of yellow wine: 1. **High-end Product Development**: There has been a successful upgrade in product structure and pricing, with Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan implementing price increases in April 2025, leading to improved dealer payment prices and expected growth rates exceeding 50% for key products [5]. 2. **Youth Market Engagement**: New product launches aimed at younger consumers have generated interest, but the repurchase rate remains low, indicating a need for further product optimization [5]. 3. **National Expansion**: The report notes that while regional expansion efforts are underway, particularly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the overall market penetration outside traditional areas remains slow [5]. - For 2026, both Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan are expected to lead the industry with clear growth strategies, targeting double-digit growth and focusing on marketing and product optimization [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The yellow wine industry consists of 10 listed companies with a total market value of 752.55 billion and a circulating market value of 678.81 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over the last 12 months shows an increase of 11.2%, while the relative performance indicates a decline of 12.5% compared to the benchmark [3]. Research Reports - The report references a previous in-depth study on the yellow wine industry, emphasizing the strategic opportunities for revival and the positive feedback from market channels [5].

Policy Implementation - Multiple fiscal and financial policies have been implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including an extension of the equipment update interest subsidy policy until the end of 2026, supporting various sectors with a total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan[2] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in sectors such as industrial, energy, education, and healthcare, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan[16] Consumer and Business Support - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate and the inclusion of credit card installment payments[13] - The interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises is set at 1.5 percentage points, targeting key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment[3] Economic Strategy - The government emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that the fiscal deficit and total debt levels remain at necessary levels, with a focus on increasing overall expenditure in 2026[12] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is under development, aiming to adapt to demand upgrades and promote high-quality economic growth[4] Risk Management - The government is committed to balancing risk prevention and development, with measures to reduce local government debt burdens and enhance fiscal sustainability[13] - There is a risk of policy updates not being timely, which could affect the effectiveness of these measures[4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...