Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" for the next 3-6 months, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see steady premium growth in 2025, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels and the expansion of distribution networks [4][3]. - The report highlights that the average premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected to be robust, driven by factors such as improved investment returns and favorable tax policies [2][4]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector has experienced an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 4.04% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.42 percentage points [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like China Life (-3.77%) and Ping An (-3.66%), while China Taiping showed a significant increase of 8.78% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is expected to see a substantial increase in its annual profit, projected to grow by approximately 215% to 843.2 million HKD in 2025, driven by enhanced net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - New China Life's premiums are expected to reach 195.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's total premiums are projected to be 461.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.4%, supported by an 8.1% increase in life insurance premiums [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector has undergone two weeks of adjustments, primarily due to a slowdown in the "New Year" growth and high valuations [4]. - For the medium term, the first half of 2026 is expected to have relatively low base pressure, with an active equity market and a thriving liability side likely to drive performance beyond expectations [4]. - The report indicates that the current stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly alleviates pressure on interest spreads, suggesting potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover towards 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for various companies, indicating that China Life is at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property and casualty insurance, the report lists China Re at 0.60x and China Pacific at 1.09x, with a recommendation order favoring China Taiping and China Ping An [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [41][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in ticket bookings for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12% [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have established a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support loans for small and micro enterprises, which is expected to leverage nearly 900 billion yuan in private investment [5]. - The report suggests that the pre-holiday booking window for the Spring Festival has opened, with positive year-on-year performance in flight bookings, particularly benefiting destinations like Hainan due to increased tourist flow [5]. - The report recommends monitoring changes in booking data for transportation and hotels leading up to the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of service consumption-related policies on investment opportunities [5]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.1 billion yuan [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -7.7%, while the relative performance is -6.9% [3]. Weekly Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 3.20%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a rise of 1.80%, and the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.62% [8]. - Notable performers in the sector included SF City with a 34.27% increase and Jiuhua Tourism with a 10.89% increase [5]. Important Announcements - Beijing Human Resources reported a planned reduction of 1.698 million shares by a shareholder, amounting to 313 million yuan, reducing their stake to 5.8% [31]. - Guilin Tourism expects to turn a profit in 2025 with a projected net profit of 11 million yuan, driven by a 10% increase in tourist numbers [31]. - Jinling Hotel anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.37% to 90.93% [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the yellow wine industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The yellow wine industry is entering a strategic opportunity period for revival, with companies like Kuaijishan achieving significant product innovation and market expansion, resulting in a stock price increase of over 85% in the year [5]. - The report highlights three key questions regarding the revival of yellow wine: 1. **High-end Product Development**: There has been a successful upgrade in product structure and pricing, with Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan implementing price increases in April 2025, leading to improved dealer payment prices and expected growth rates exceeding 50% for key products [5]. 2. **Youth Market Engagement**: New product launches aimed at younger consumers have generated interest, but the repurchase rate remains low, indicating a need for further product optimization [5]. 3. **National Expansion**: The report notes that while regional expansion efforts are underway, particularly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the overall market penetration outside traditional areas remains slow [5]. - For 2026, both Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan are expected to lead the industry with clear growth strategies, targeting double-digit growth and focusing on marketing and product optimization [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The yellow wine industry consists of 10 listed companies with a total market value of 752.55 billion and a circulating market value of 678.81 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over the last 12 months shows an increase of 11.2%, while the relative performance indicates a decline of 12.5% compared to the benchmark [3]. Research Reports - The report references a previous in-depth study on the yellow wine industry, emphasizing the strategic opportunities for revival and the positive feedback from market channels [5].

Policy Implementation - Multiple fiscal and financial policies have been implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including an extension of the equipment update interest subsidy policy until the end of 2026, supporting various sectors with a total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan[2] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in sectors such as industrial, energy, education, and healthcare, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan[16] Consumer and Business Support - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2026, with a 1% annual subsidy rate and the inclusion of credit card installment payments[13] - The interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises is set at 1.5 percentage points, targeting key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment[3] Economic Strategy - The government emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that the fiscal deficit and total debt levels remain at necessary levels, with a focus on increasing overall expenditure in 2026[12] - A strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is under development, aiming to adapt to demand upgrades and promote high-quality economic growth[4] Risk Management - The government is committed to balancing risk prevention and development, with measures to reduce local government debt burdens and enhance fiscal sustainability[13] - There is a risk of policy updates not being timely, which could affect the effectiveness of these measures[4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent opening of amortized cost bond funds has led to a significant increase in credit bond allocations, with a total opening scale reaching 33 billion yuan, including 8.1 billion yuan for 2-year and 24.9 billion yuan for 5-year funds [1][9] - In the past two weeks, funds have significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds, with net purchases of 62.2 billion yuan from January 12 to January 16 and 105.9 billion yuan from January 19 to January 23, indicating a strong demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [1][9] - The report notes that the 3-5 year short-term bonds have shown outstanding performance, with yields declining by 3-7 basis points and spreads narrowing by 1-6 basis points, particularly highlighting the 4-year AA+ rated bonds which saw a yield drop of 7 basis points [2][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued demand for 3-5 year credit bonds in the upcoming weeks, with expected opening scales of 20.7 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, although it cautions that the current spreads are at relatively low levels, limiting further compression [2][10] - The credit strategy suggests that the 4-year bonds have high convexity and should be closely monitored for their allocation value, especially as the amortized cost bond funds enter a concentrated opening period [3][36] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the bond market is improving, with credit bond yields generally declining and a notable performance in the 3-4 year segment, indicating a potential recovery in market conditions [17][32]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 悲观预期修正，但做多仍待催化 ——债券周报 20260125 ❖ 一、债市策略：悲观预期修正，但做多预期仍需催化 1、本周债市延续修复态势，超长端更为明显，主要是对前期债市担忧的修正， 年初风险偏好明显提振、供给放量及资金担忧等市场的利空因素边际弱化： 一是风险偏好趋稳，政策诉求"慢牛"行情。1 月 14 日交易所通知上调两融保 证金比例，1 月 15 日起汇金显著减持宽基指数 ETF，意在控制权益行情过热 风险。此外，元旦假期前"两新"、地产增值税调减等政策利好基本消化完毕， 且本周财政部与发改委会议定调也符合此前预期、增量不多，短期围绕政策预 期的交易降温，对债市扰动也有下降 二是央行态度积极，资金平稳。本周税期叠加北交所打新等因素，资金扰动增 加，但在央行相对积极的投放呵护下，资金运行较为平稳。本周 MLF 实现 7000 亿元净投放，考虑当前资金面整体平稳，"长钱"投放增加或也指向短期降准的 概率有所压缩。 三是地方债发行进度慢于预期，供给压力较为可控。1 月前三周地方债发行进 度为全月计划的 51%，最后一周赶进度，全月仍略小于计划值，导致市场对供 给担忧显著缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" indicator, which is defined as the sum of a stock's browsing, watchlist additions, and click counts, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] - A rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly rate of change of the heat index (MA2). At the end of each trading week, the strategy involves buying the broad-based index with the highest MA2 rate of change. If the "Others" group has the highest rate of change, the strategy remains in cash. The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 3.6% in 2026[13][16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on concept heat indices. The first portfolio (TOP) selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat index from the top 5 concepts with the highest heat index changes each week, while the second portfolio (BOTTOM) selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat index from the same concepts. The BOTTOM portfolio has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[30][32]