Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - As of June 30, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds were mostly adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having a relatively larger upward range, averaging 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP. - In financial bonds, varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads included leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most financial varieties increased. Specifically, the yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties in leasing bonds increased by more than 5BP; the interest rate increase of each variety of general commercial financial bonds was less than 2BP; among Tier 2 capital bonds, the adjustment range of urban and rural commercial bank varieties was larger, with the yield of 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds increasing by 9.8BP, but the yield of 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds decreasing by more than 12BP; in addition, the yield increase of each maturity variety in securities company bonds and sub - bonds was controlled within 5BP. - For urban investment bonds, in public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were both below 2.4%; urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% appeared in prefecture - level and district - county levels in Guizhou. In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 2.8%; varieties with yields higher than 4% appeared in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most public urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the yields of most varieties in private urban investment bonds also increased [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. The valuation yields and spreads of leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds in financial bonds were relatively high [2][3][4]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds had yield adjustments, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having an average increase of 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the 1 - 2 year state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual variety increased by 4.8BP. Most financial varieties saw yield increases, with specific increases varying by bond type [3][4]. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were below 2.4%, while yields exceeding 4.5% were in Guizhou's prefecture - level and district - county levels. Other regions like Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields mostly increased slightly. Larger - increase varieties included 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Sichuan provincial level, 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Anhui provincial level, within 1 year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level cities, and within 1 year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level [2]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian had weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Regions like Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields of most varieties increased. The varieties with larger upward ranges were 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi prefecture - level cities (9.9BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - county levels (9.7BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Jilin prefecture - level cities (8.0BP), and 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Liaoning prefecture - level cities (7.7BP) [2]. Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private and public bonds were mostly adjusted compared to the previous week, with different adjustment ranges for different maturities [12]. - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: The 1 - 2 year private non - perpetual variety had a relatively large upward range in yield, averaging 9.7BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: No information on private bonds; for public bonds, some maturity varieties had yield decreases [12]. Financial Bonds - **Leasing Company Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties increased by more than 5BP [4]. - **General Commercial Financial Bonds**: The interest rate increase of each variety was less than 2BP [4]. - **Tier 2 Capital Bonds**: Among urban and rural commercial bank varieties, the 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield increased by 9.8BP, while the 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield decreased by more than 12BP [4]. - **Securities Company Bonds and Sub - bonds**: The yield increase of each maturity variety was controlled within 5BP [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, assigning a target price of 132.30 RMB based on a 70x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic optical fiber connector manufacturer, heavily reliant on Corning, which accounts for 70% of its revenue. The partnership allows the company to indirectly supply major North American clients like NVIDIA and Microsoft [2][17]. - The main product, MPO (Multi-fiber Push On) connectors, is entering an upward cycle, supported by strong demand from data centers and advancements in technology such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and OIO (Optical I/O) [2][49]. - The company has a competitive edge due to its close collaboration with Corning and its strategic positioning in the supply chain, which enhances profitability [2][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leader in the optical device industry, with a product portfolio that includes passive optical components, active optical products, and optical sensing products. Optical connectors contribute significantly to its revenue [13][14]. - Corning is the largest customer, contributing 70% of revenue, with a strong focus on exports, which account for nearly 80% of total sales [17][26]. 2. Main Products and Market Dynamics - MPO connectors are crucial for short-distance interconnections in data centers, with the market expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for high-speed data transmission [49][50]. - The report highlights that the value of MPO per GPU is expected to increase as data center architectures evolve and transmission speeds rise, with estimates showing values reaching up to $381 per GPU in advanced configurations [58][59]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.01 billion RMB (+46%), 2.81 billion RMB (+40%), and 3.85 billion RMB (+37%), respectively. Net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 430 million RMB (+65%) for 2025 [3][6]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, with a forecasted gross margin of 42% in 1Q25, reflecting its competitive position in the industry [36][30]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The MPO market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with the top three players holding a combined market share of 36%. The company benefits from its established relationships and cost advantages in the supply chain [61][62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in the MPO industry, which are expected to enhance the overall market valuation and competitive dynamics [2][49].

Group 1: Government Debt Issuance - In June, government debt issuance remained high at 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 2.3 trillion yuan in the previous period, with net financing of 1.41 trillion yuan[5] - By the end of June 2025, the net financing scale of government debt is projected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 56.2%[5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of government bonds is 52.0% for general bonds, 47.5% for special bonds, and 85.2% for special refinancing bonds[5] Group 2: Automotive Market Trends - From June 1 to June 22, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.269 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 8%[8] - The price war in the automotive sector ended in June, with BYD offering discounts of up to 34% on certain models, boosting consumer purchasing intentions[8] - The automotive industry faces risks from intense competition, which may affect product quality and future maintenance services[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The BCI index fell to 49.3 in June, indicating a cautious outlook among enterprises, with sales and profit expectations declining by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points respectively[11] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.7% in June, with production and new orders indices improving to 51 and 50.2 respectively[19] - GDP growth for the second quarter is expected to be between 5.3% and 5.4%[20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Standard Allocation" for the basic chemical sector, indicating a high potential for structural opportunities despite a lower probability of success [4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector currently has a high valuation safety margin, with the PB historical percentile dropping below 9% since 2010. When the PB percentile is below 10%, the sector's cost-effectiveness for allocation becomes apparent [4]. - Supply, cost, and demand sides continue to face disturbances, impacting the overall success rate of investments in this sector [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on sub-industries with marginal changes, such as pesticides, glyphosate, and sweeteners [4]. - Pay attention to the export chain, particularly lubricating oil additives, tires, and potassium fertilizers [4]. - Look for performance certainty in sectors like refrigerants and civil explosives [4]. Market Dynamics - The chemical industry is experiencing significant internal competition, with "change" being a focal point for attention [6]. - The industry is under pressure from substantial investments, with a compounded growth rate of 14.1% for raw materials and products over the past four years [17]. - The current investment cycle is nearing its end, with potential delays in capacity realization expected over the next 1-2 years [17]. Supply and Demand Trends - The chemical sector's inventory has not shown significant cyclical changes, remaining in a low-level oscillation state [20]. - Despite a slight recovery in chemical consumption due to government stimulus, the real estate sector continues to struggle, impacting overall demand [22][23]. Price Trends - The report highlights various price movements in the chemical sector, with glyphosate prices showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.26% as of May 2025 [36]. - The report also notes the price fluctuations of several chemicals, indicating a complex pricing environment influenced by supply chain disruptions and production capacity [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

- The macro timing strategy model suggests a recommended equity position of 45% for June, with signal strengths of 50% for economic growth and 40% for monetary liquidity[3][26][27] - The micro-cap stock rotation and timing signals remain strong, with the micro-cap/Chow index relative net value rising to 1.93 times, above its 243-day moving average of 1.41 times[4][29] - The micro-cap stock's 20-day price slope is 0.00257, indicating stronger upward momentum compared to the Chow index's -0.00019[4][29] - The risk warning has been lifted, with volatility congestion at -0.415%, well below the warning threshold of 0.55%, and the 10-year government bond yield at -0.27%, below the risk control line of 0.30%[4][29] - The market's recent rise has favored small-cap growth styles, leading to strong performance in market cap, consensus expectations, and growth factors, while technical and low-volatility factors have underperformed[4][40] - The market cap factor had the highest IC in the CSI 300 pool at 0.2241, while the growth factor had a weak signal in the CSI 500 pool with an IC of -0.0305[39] - The market cap factor also performed well in the entire A-share pool with an IC of 0.2347[39] - The weekly performance of multi-factor strategies showed the market cap factor leading with a gain of approximately +2.21% in the CSI 300 pool, while the growth factor rose by about +0.17%[39] - The consensus expectations factor and growth factor are expected to continue performing well, while technical and low-volatility factors may see a rebound as market sentiment slows down[40] - The convertible bond selection factors showed the stock growth factor leading with a gain of about 0.72%, followed by the stock consensus expectations factor with a return of about 0.63%[45] - The stock quality factor fell by about 0.26%, the stock value factor retreated by about 0.66%, and the convertible bond valuation factor had the largest decline of about 1.70%[45] Model Backtest Results - Macro timing strategy model, equity position: 45%[3][26][27] - Micro-cap stock/Chow index relative net value: 1.93 times[4][29] - Micro-cap stock 20-day price slope: 0.00257[4][29] - Volatility congestion: -0.415%[4][29] - 10-year government bond yield: -0.27%[4][29] - Market cap factor IC in CSI 300 pool: 0.2241[39] - Growth factor IC in CSI 500 pool: -0.0305[39] - Market cap factor IC in entire A-share pool: 0.2347[39] - Market cap factor weekly gain in CSI 300 pool: +2.21%[39] - Growth factor weekly gain in CSI 300 pool: +0.17%[39] - Stock growth factor weekly gain: 0.72%[45] - Stock consensus expectations factor weekly return: 0.63%[45] - Stock quality factor weekly decline: -0.26%[45] - Stock value factor weekly decline: -0.66%[45] - Convertible bond valuation factor weekly decline: -1.70%[45]

2025 年 06 月 30 日 国际关系动态报告 国际关系研究报告 证券研究报告 国金政策与战略组 分析师：杨佳妮（执业 S1130524040002） yangjiani@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：商景皓 shangjinghao@gjzq.com.cn 国金地缘政治周观察｜当前美国和各个国家贸易谈判进展 核心观点 地缘动向复盘：本周聚焦美国贸易谈判。美欧谈判方面，6 月 25 日北约峰会在荷兰海牙落幕，6 月 26 日欧盟在比 利时布鲁塞尔举行峰会，对美贸易谈判是峰会焦点之一。中美方面，6 月 27 日，中美贸易博弈迎来重大转折。卢特 尼克称美国已经与中国签署协议，中国商务部也表示双方进一步确认了框架细节。 国金观点周观察： （1）整体来看，美方对达成协议的急切程度高于其谈判对手，我们做出判断的原因主要基于三点：一是 7 月 9 日 谈判截止日即将到来，目前美国与主要国家的谈判仍无实质性进展。二是特朗普目前面临着经济与政治的压力，关 税问题若迟迟得不到解决，这将限制特朗普对其他问题的解决。三是 7 月 4 日为美国"独立日"，特朗普计划在此特 殊日期前后宣布一批政治成果，以达到政治宣传的效果。特朗 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major stock index futures contracts all increased last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest gain of 5.49%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 1.27% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts varied, with the IH contract seeing the largest increase of 7.98%, while the IC contract experienced the largest decrease of 4.93% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -4.84%, -8.50%, -11.12%, and -4.28%, respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis compared to the previous week [3][11] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities and Dividend Predictions - For the IF contract, the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies over the next 15 trading days are 0.59% and -1.02%, respectively, indicating a potential for reverse arbitrage [4][12] - The predicted dividend points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are estimated at 33.23, 18.52, 28.86, and 13.05, respectively [4][12] - The narrowing of the basis for IH, IF, and IC contracts reflects a re-pricing of tail risks in the market, while the small-cap IM contract still shows deep basis discounts [4][12] Group 3: Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Eight brokerage firms have turned optimistic about market sentiment, while seven firms noted increased liquidity or capital inflows [5][39] - There is a consensus among brokerage firms regarding the positive outlook for the military, non-ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors [5][39] - The report utilized a language model to summarize the market and industry perspectives from over 20 sell-side strategy teams, providing a comprehensive overview of investment consensus and divergences [5][39]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady upward trend with LME copper prices increasing by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton, while domestic copper prices rose by 2.47% to 79,900 yuan per ton. Supply-side pressures are evident as the processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$44.81 per ton, indicating potential supply constraints [1][13] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton. However, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises has decreased to 61.8%, reflecting ongoing demand challenges [2][14] - Gold prices have decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a reduction in SPDR gold holdings, indicating a temporary decline in gold's safe-haven appeal [3][15] - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by export controls and stable production levels, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics and potential price support [3][27][30] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices are on the rise, with a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in processing fees indicating potential supply issues [1][13] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing, but demand remains weak as indicated by declining operating rates in the industry [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and reduced investment interest [3][15] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The copper market is experiencing a robust demand outlook, with potential supply constraints due to declining processing fees and reduced operating rates in key sectors [1][13] 2.2 Aluminum - The aluminum market is stabilizing, but the demand outlook remains weak, as evidenced by declining operating rates in the aluminum cable sector [2][14] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decrease in ETF holdings, reflecting a temporary decline in its safe-haven status [3][15] 3. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and stable production levels, with potential price support anticipated [3][27][30] - The antimony market is facing downward price pressure, but upcoming regulatory changes may provide a demand boost [4][31] - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing, with low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel sector indicating a positive outlook [4][32] 4. Updates on Energy Metals - Lithium prices have shown slight declines, but production levels are increasing, indicating a stable supply outlook [5] - Cobalt prices have increased, reflecting strong demand in battery applications, while nickel prices are mixed with slight fluctuations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].