证券研究报告 轻工行业研究框架 分析师：赵中平 执业编号：S1130524050003 分析师：张杨桓 执业编号：S1130522090001 分析师：尹新悦 执业编号：S1130522080004 2025/4/1 1 目录 01 家居：供给侧研究框架越发重要 02 造纸：成本为王，上游延伸强化壁垒 03 包装：行业集中度有望持续提升 04 宠物：高景气强成长，品牌初崭头角 2 01家居：供给侧研究框架越发重要 3 需求端—前置指标为地产销售、竣工、卖场客流 家居 行业 规划 设计 项目 报建 土地 获取 项目 开工 施工 建设 房产 预售 竣工 交付 6-9个月 6-9个月 2.5-4年 6-9个月 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 房屋竣工面积:住宅:累计同比 零售额：家具类：累计同比 图表：房产行业中下游产业链 图表：竣工后6-9个月将形成家具销售 资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所 4 ➢ 房地产从销售到竣工的大概需1.5-3年：商品房从获取土地到开工约为6-9个月，从开工到预售的时长也在 6-9个月，而房产从获取土地到完全竣工交付的年限在2.5-4年，预计从房产预售到竣工交 ...

行业动态 4 月 1 日，《广东省推动人工智能与机器人产业创新发展若干政策措施》新闻发布会消息，广东出台 12 条措施，推动 人工智能与机器人产业创新发展。其中，支持创建国家级、省级人工智能与机器人领域制造业创新中心，省财政按规 定分别给予最高 5000 万元、1000 万元的资金支持。 公司动态 核心指标 4 月 1 日机器人板块整体回调，越疆领涨： 板块涨幅前三：本体（+2.97%）>PCB（+0.74%）>散热件（-0.74%）。 个股涨幅前三：越疆（+20.64%）>华培动力（+4.22%）>亿嘉和（+3.57%）。 投资建议 持续推荐银轮股份。银轮股份的发展史就是抓住产业机遇+头部客户的历史，我们预计 2025 年公司归母净利润为 11.06 亿元，目前股价对应 25 年 PE 21 倍，公司作为汽车热管理领域的头部 Tier1，具有强大的配套研发能力和客户服务体 系，机器人业务进展有望持续超预期，继续推荐。 核心策略和推荐标的不变。当前我们认为 T 为代表的巨头供应链仍然是最核心投资主线，考虑 3-4 月灵巧手发布的事 件催化，重点关注：（1）灵巧手的边际变化，即微型丝杠和触觉传感器；（2）关注宇 ...

基本内容 过去四年，拜登政府践行了强烈的干预主义和遏制政策，虽然在一段时间内的某些方面给人以压力，却是不顾国力减 弱、内部矛盾激化的现实的奋力一击，最终以选举惨败收场。特朗普 2.0 全盘否定了拜登的外交路线，取而代之以门 罗主义和缓和政策，并附加以鲜明的意识形态偏好和关税威胁。历史上，每次美国外交政策的重大调整，都对世界秩 序产生了显著影响。这一次，欧洲率先感到了压力，美国的战略收缩、特朗普的意识形态冲突、俄罗斯的潜在威胁， 令欧洲的安防形势面临自二战结束以来最严峻的考验。 风险提示 1）美国内外部形势发生明显变化；2）欧洲重新武装等政策落实存在不确定性 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观专题研究报告 上任两个多月，特朗普 2.0 看似是一场乱局，比如朝令夕改的关税威胁、出其不意的领土诉求、疾风暴雨的政府裁员、 全周无休的媒体轰炸。但实际上，特朗普 2.0 的政治逻辑清晰连贯，对美国现状有认知，对长期愿景有规划，对短期 举措有安排。 一、现状认知和长期愿景 正如他的标志性口号"Make America Great Again"，在特朗普眼中，美国或许已经不那么伟大。特朗普生于 1946 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 86.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 1.04 billion yuan, a decline of 67.3% [1][4]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to the downturn in the real estate market, with a gross margin of 10.5% for 2024, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company demonstrated stronger sales performance compared to peers, with a contract sales amount of 114.5 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.4%, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 24.4% [2]. - The company has set a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 sales completion [2]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with key financial metrics remaining in the green zone as of the end of 2024. The asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio, and cash-to-short-term debt ratio are 68.1%, 51.7%, and 2.1 times, respectively [3]. - The total borrowings amount to 103.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with short-term debt accounting for 22% of total borrowings [3]. - The weighted average borrowing cost has decreased to 3.49%, down by 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to experience a bottoming phase in settlement performance for 2024-2025, with potential recovery in profit performance as high-margin projects are recognized and impairment pressures ease [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.02 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.9%, +21.4%, and +10.1%, respectively [4].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The overall performance of the four major index futures was mixed, with the CSI 1000 index futures experiencing the largest decline of -1.51%, while the CSI 50 index futures saw the largest increase of 0.25% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts varied, with the IM contract increasing by 1.84% and the IF contract decreasing by -29.84% compared to the previous week [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -3.65%, -11.56%, -13.88%, and -0.37% respectively, indicating a deepening of the discount for IF and IC while the discount for IM and IH narrowed [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Spread and Dividend Forecast - The cross-period spread rates for the new monthly contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 45.10%, 64.70%, 27.80%, and 78.60% percentiles since 2019, indicating a return to normal distribution [4][12] - The estimated impact of dividends on the index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices over the next year is projected to be 82.21, 82.79, 64.78, and 61.57 respectively [4][12][50] Group 3: Market Expectations and Seller Strategy Insights - Market expectations indicate a high correlation between basis changes and investor trading sentiment, with limited impact from recent U.S. tariff policies [4][13] - A summary of over 20 sell-side strategy reports from March 24 to March 31 revealed that 7 brokerages believe ongoing policy implementation and capital market reforms will enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, while 6 brokerages see structural valuation opportunities in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, high-dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][49]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on the company's clear growth path and potential in both traditional and AI emerging businesses [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.061 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 428 million RMB, up 31.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 20.8% [1]. - The sales volume for customized lenses reached 178 million units in 2024, with an average selling price of 11.6 RMB per unit, reflecting a 4.5% increase [2]. - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and has increased R&D expenses, which rose by 18.2 million RMB, leading to a R&D expense ratio of 4.3% [3]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 520 million RMB, 620 million RMB, and 720 million RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 20.9%, 19.4%, and 16.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the second half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.084 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit of 220 million RMB, up 30.3% [1]. Operational Analysis - The company’s revenue from functional lenses, standard lenses, customized lenses, and other income was 755 million RMB, 907 million RMB, 395 million RMB, and 3 million RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.4%, 8.8%, 11.8%, and 60.3% [2]. - Revenue by region showed growth in mainland China (13.92%), the Americas (16.93%), Asia (37.88%), and Europe (6.38%) [2]. Product and R&D Development - The company is enhancing its XR business and has established an XR R&D service center, with plans for production expansion in Thailand [3]. - The company is also accelerating the development of its own brand channels and innovating products with different refractive indices and functions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 25, 21, and 18 times, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the company to a "Buy" rating, indicating a clear growth path and potential for significant returns in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.061 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1%, and a net profit of 428 million RMB, up 31.0% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 20.8% [1]. - The sales volume for customized lenses reached 178 million units, with an average selling price of 11.6 RMB per unit, reflecting a 4.5% increase [2]. - The company is focusing on product differentiation and market expansion, particularly in high-refractive lenses and blue light blocking products, which contributed to significant revenue growth across various product lines [2]. - The gross margin improved to 38.6%, driven by increased order volumes, currency depreciation, and product upgrades, while R&D expenses increased by 18.2 million RMB, indicating a commitment to innovation [3]. - The company is optimistic about the XR business's potential and is accelerating the development of its own brand channels [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the second half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.084 billion RMB, a 16.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 220 million RMB, up 30.3% [1]. Operational Analysis - Revenue from functional lenses, standard lenses, customized lenses, and other income reached 755 million RMB, 907 million RMB, 395 million RMB, and 3 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.4%, 8.8%, 11.8%, and 60.3% [2]. - Revenue by region showed growth in mainland China (13.92%), the Americas (16.93%), Asia (37.88%), and Europe (6.38%) [2]. Product Structure and Profitability - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 38.6%, with a slight increase in the second half to 38.1% [3]. - R&D expenses increased to 4.3% of revenue, reflecting a strategic focus on innovation and product development [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 518 million RMB, 618 million RMB, and 720 million RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 20.9%, 19.4%, and 16.5% [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 25, 21, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][14]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with expectations, showing a significant improvement in gross margin and a reduction in operating expenses [11]. - The company is transitioning from being a leader in automotive lidar to a platform leader in robotics and AI, with a focus on the development of new products like AC1 and AI-Ready ecosystems [11]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.68 billion, 4.23 billion, and 5.58 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2026 [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.65 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 47.2%, with a gross margin of 17.2% [10]. - The total expenses for 2024 were approximately 220 million RMB, with a total expense ratio of 54.0%, down 41.3 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The company’s net loss for 2024 was 482 million RMB, a significant reduction from the previous year, indicating improved operational efficiency [10][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.68 billion RMB in 2025, 4.23 billion RMB in 2026, and 5.58 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of -268 million, 171 million, and 582 million RMB [4][9]. - The projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.2, 3.93, and 2.98 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][9]. Expense Management - The company has optimized its expense structure, with the sales expense ratio decreasing to 6.1% in 2024, down 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - The management expense ratio for 2024 was 9.1%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting improved cost control [3]. - The R&D expense ratio was 33.6% for 2024, down 4.6 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a strategic focus on efficiency [3].

事件简评 盈利预测、估值与评级 预计公司 2025~2027 年营业收入分别为 105.2/123.7/141.3 亿元，归母净利润分别为 14.5/20.2/25.8 亿元。公司股票现 价对应 PE 估值为 26.7/19.1/15.0 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 240401 240701 241001 250101 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 中控技术 沪深300 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,620 | 9,139 | 10,516 | 12,367 | 14,125 | | 营业收入增长率 | 30.13% | 6.02% | 15.07% | 17.60% | 14.22% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.912 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.262 billion RMB, reflecting a modest increase of 0.25% [2][10]. - The company experienced a slight decline in rental income, with total rental revenue at 2.88 billion RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year. However, cost control measures led to an improvement in profit margins, with gross margin increasing by 0.13 percentage points to 58.14% and net margin rising by 0.43 percentage points to 32.30% [3][4]. - The average occupancy rates for different property types showed mixed results, with office occupancy at 93.1%, shopping mall occupancy at 96.5%, and apartment occupancy at 88.9%. Rental prices for offices and shopping malls increased year-on-year, while apartment rents remained stable [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 39.12 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 1.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.62 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.25% [2][10]. - The average rental income across different segments was reported as follows: office rental income at 1.48 billion RMB (down 3.3%), shopping mall income at 1.22 billion RMB (up 1.0%), and apartment income at 190 million RMB (up 2.2%) [3]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 58.14%, and the net margin increased to 32.30%, attributed to cost-saving measures in depreciation, employee costs, and maintenance [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 11.00 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 1.108 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of 88% and a dividend yield of 4.78% based on the closing price as of March 31, 2024 [4]. Future Projections - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 1.28 billion RMB, 1.30 billion RMB, and 1.31 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.0% [5].