Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 16.9 billion for FY25, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.06 billion, down 10.4% year-on-year. The second half of FY25 saw revenue and net profit decline by 9.2% and 20.8%, respectively [1]. - The domestic market faced significant pressure, while the North American and European markets showed relative strength, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 19.2%, respectively [1][3]. - The company maintained a favorable dividend payout ratio of 50.8% for FY25, with a total dividend of HKD 0.27 per share [1]. Performance Analysis - Domestic sales were notably pressured, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5% in China, while North America and Europe experienced growth [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.1 percentage points to 40.5% due to a decrease in raw material costs, despite a decline in net margin by 0.3 percentage points to 12.8% [2]. - The company’s sofa sales volume decreased by 0.9% globally and 10.6% in China, indicating pricing pressure [1]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are HKD 0.52, HKD 0.57, and HKD 0.61, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8X, 8X, and 7X [4][10].

量化信用策略 截至 5 月 9 日数据，银行永续债及券商债策略近期胜率不低。从策略期限来看，上周短端策略超额收益有限，城投下 沉组合落后于中长端基准；中长端策略方面，除城投久期、哑铃型策略外，其余策略组合超额收益均为正，其中，金 融债与非金信用重仓策略近四周累计超额收益进一步拉开差距，尤其是金融债久期策略近期收益弹性有所增加。 品种久期跟踪 二级资本债成交久期创年内最高。截至 5 月 9 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.09 年、2.51 年，城投债与 产业债均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水平，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平 均成交期限分别为 4.19 年、3.59 年、2.30 年；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公 司债久期分别为 1.58 年、1.98 年、3.75 年、1.27 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，保险公司 债、租赁公司债位于较高历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，存量信用债中，民企地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与节前一周相比，非金融 非地产类产业债收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the number of newly issued bond funds continued to decline, and the fundraising scale shrank to less than 100 billion yuan. This is related to the pressure on the bond market and the prominent stock - bond seesaw effect. The outstanding share of bond funds decreased to 9.03 trillion shares at the end of Q1 [2][5][11]. - Public funds switched their preferences and returned to increasing the allocation of coupon - bearing assets. In Q1, funds concentrated on increasing the allocation of bank sub - debt, slightly increased the allocation of general credit bonds, and reduced the allocation of general commercial financial bonds for three consecutive quarters [3][5][20]. - For urban investment bonds, funds focused on the certainty of short - end sinking, with the proportion of bonds within 2 years reaching two - thirds. In terms of regional distribution, funds increased their holdings of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Tianjin, and significantly extended the holding duration of Chongqing urban investment bonds [3][5][28]. - For industrial bonds, funds preferred to increase their holdings in the building decoration industry. Public utilities, comprehensive, and transportation were still the top three industries with the largest heavy - holding scale. The proportion of industrial bonds within 1 year reached a new high [4][5][43]. - For financial bonds, funds rediscovered niche varieties. They repurchased small and medium - sized bank sub - debt and shifted their allocation strategy from long - term secondary capital bonds to short - term bonds. The holding scale of insurance bonds reached a record high [4][5][49]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of Incremental Funds: Bond Market Volatility and Decline in Bond Fund Scale - In Q1 2025, 57 new bond - type funds were issued, with a fundraising scale of 87.8 billion yuan, the lowest in the past three years. Compared with Q4 2024 and the same period last year, there was a significant gap [2][11]. - Affected by factors such as increased capital - side fluctuations and overseas disturbances, the bond market sentiment was poor, while the stock market attracted incremental funds due to the "tech bull" market. The index of ordinary stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds rose by 4.7% compared with the previous quarter, while the overall bond - type fund index only rose by 0.02% quarter - on - quarter. Short - term bond funds and money market funds had better defensiveness, and long - term bond funds declined. The outstanding share of bond - type funds decreased by 0.44 trillion shares quarter - on - quarter to 9.03 trillion shares at the end of Q1 [2][15]. 2. Preference from Heavy - Holding Bonds: Consistency in Short - Bond Allocation - Public funds increased their heavy - holding scale of credit bonds by 3.2% quarter - on - quarter to 80.65 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a relatively obvious signal of increasing holdings since Q1 last year. At the same time, the holding scale of interest - rate bonds decreased by 103.1 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter, with a reduction of over 3% [20]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: - Funds maintained a stable allocation of urban investment bonds, mainly concentrating on AA +, AA, and AA(2) grades. The holding proportion of AA and below grades remained stable at around 56%. As of the end of April, the net financing of urban investment bonds was weaker than in previous years [28]. - The holding duration of urban investment bonds was mainly within 2 years, accounting for two - thirds. The proportion of bonds over 3 years was controlled within 15% [3][28][32]. - In terms of regional distribution, funds increased their holdings of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Tianjin, with the holding scale increasing by more than 1 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu were still the top three regions in terms of absolute holding scale [35]. - The holding duration of Chongqing urban investment bonds was significantly extended by 1.04 years quarter - on - quarter to 2.19 years. The holding durations of urban investment bonds in North China regions such as Hebei, Henan, and Beijing also slightly increased [39]. - **Industrial Bonds**: - Funds preferred to increase their holdings in the building decoration industry, with an increase of 2.5 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. Public utilities, comprehensive, and transportation were still the top three industries with the largest heavy - holding scale, with heavy - holding scales of 24.9 billion yuan, 19.6 billion yuan, and 10.4 billion yuan respectively [43]. - The proportion of industrial bonds within 1 year reached a new high, while the proportion of bonds over 2 years decreased. Overall, the proportion of industrial bonds within 3 years was about 74%. The holding duration of transportation industry bonds was extended to over 2 years, and the duration of coal bonds was also extended by about 0.4 years [4][46]. - **Financial Bonds**: - Funds repurchased small and medium - sized bank sub - debt. The holding scale of small and medium - sized bank sub - debt increased by 5.4 billion yuan in Q1, accounting for 15% of the total secondary - tier and perpetual bonds. The allocation of secondary capital bonds slowed down compared with Q4 last year, while funds turned to net buying of bank perpetual bonds [49]. - The allocation strategy shifted from long - term secondary capital bonds to short - term bonds. Funds increased their holdings of secondary capital bonds within 1 year the most, with the proportion rising to 28%. For bank perpetual bonds, shorter - term bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years were more preferred [53]. - The holding scale of insurance bonds reached a record high. Funds had increased their holdings of this variety for three consecutive quarters. As of the end of Q1, the heavy - holding scale of insurance bonds reached 1.66 billion yuan [57].

公司是全球最大风电运营商，技改+自建+集团注入多元驱动装机 增长。公司背靠国能集团，是以新能源业务为主的大型综合性发 电集团。集团面临清洁化转型压力，公司承担约 30GW 新能源装机 增量指标。21~24 年已累计新增新能源装机约 17GW，25 年力争投 产 5GW。背靠身为头部发电央企的集团，在融资成本、资金规模等 方面具有优势；并且拥有多能互补的装机结构，在煤炭、化工、 运输等板块布局，业务协同效果好、项目资源获取能力强。公司 24 年取得开发指标 14.7GW，待开发项目资源充足。6M23 能源局发 布文件鼓励并网运行超过 15 年或单机容量小于 1.5MW 的风电场开 展改造升级。早期风电场资源优渥，但受限于设备未能充分利用。 公司是中国最早开发风电的专业化公司，符合技改要求的存量项 目储备充足；过去 3 年资产减值已为"以大代小"腾出 168 万千 瓦空间，25 年计划投产技改项目约 37 万千瓦。 新能源进入全面市场化新阶段，风电资产脱颖而出。"136 号文" 标志着新能源进入全面入市的新阶段，风电出力的非同时性特征 使其现货市场交易电价、利用率情况好于光伏。在市场化交易电 价折价 20%的假设 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000、中证 500 指数均上涨。其中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 指数的涨跌幅分别为 1.93%、2%、1.6%和 2.22%。 过去一周，中国公布了 4 月的通胀数据，整体维持低位震荡。上游通胀 PPI 同比数据 4 月报-0.27%,较上个月回落 0.2%； 而中下游通胀 CPI 同比数据 4 月报-0.1%，与上个月持平。为了对冲关税冲突导致的外需回落，货币政策端快速发力。 人民银行宣布了十项具体措施，包括前期提及的降准（0.5%）和降息（0.1%）。在降准落地的利好下，银行板块过去 一周涨幅靠前。此外，证监会也快速落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的执行。其中《方案》明确提及，"对 三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超过 10 个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降；"由于一旦产品 表现相较基准向下偏离过大，对应基金经理的绩效薪酬会明显受影响。所以可预见该项规定的落地，公募基金基金经 理会更加关注如何能够稳健跟踪住业绩比较基准，而后才是去获取更多的超额收益。而前者最简单的做法则是配置与 基准 ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 买入（维持评级） 行业专题研究报告 证券研究报告 军工组 分析师：杨晨（执业 S1130522060001） yangchen＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：任旭欢（执业 S1130524070004） renxuhuan＠gjzq.com.cn 中国军工的 DEEPSEEK 时刻，关注军贸投资机遇 投资逻辑： 5 月 7-10 日，印度与巴基斯坦发生军事冲突：根据环球网、环球时报，冲突起源于发生在印控克什米尔地区的恐怖袭 击枪击事件，印方指责巴基斯坦与枪击事件有关，后对巴方采取关闭边境口岸、驱逐巴方外交人员、断水等一系列措 施，当地时间 5 月 7 日，印军对巴基斯坦发起"朱砂行动"，巴基斯坦发起"铜墙铁壁"军事行动回击，冲突正式展 开。 印巴冲突中中械装备表现亮眼：根据巴基斯坦国防部、京报网、每日经济新闻，自 5 月 7 日印度发动"朱砂行动"以 来，先后对巴基斯坦发动多次导弹袭击、无人机入侵等行动施压，冲突过程中，巴基斯坦使用歼-10C、PL-15 等中械 装备，击落印度 3 架法制"阵风"战机、1 架俄制米格-29、1 架苏-30 和 1 架"苍鹭"无人机，出动中巴 ...

全工业行业库存周期延续"主动补库存"。本月全工业行业库存增速持平于上月，但从各行业角度库存周期运行来看， 处于"主动补库"状态的行业数量最多，达到 16 个，所以我们判定全行业行业库存周期位于"主动补库"状态。 上游行业（即采矿业，仅占全部库存的 2%）："主动补库存"_2025.03 中游行业（即中上游制造业，占全部库存的 54%）："主动补库存"_2025.03 下游行业（即下游制造业与水电气，占全部库存的 43% ）："主动补库存"_2025.03。 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 | 1. | 库存周期概览 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 库存周期概览（分行业） | 8 | | | 风险提示 | 9 | | 图表 | 1： | 工业企业产成品存货同比持平于 | 4.2% _2025.03 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2： | 库存周期的四阶段论 | | 3 | | 图表 | 3： | 全部工业行业："主动补库存"_2025.03 | | 4 | | ...

一、存量市场概览 上周（2025.5.6-2025.5.9，下同）地方政府债市场持续扩容，截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，地方债存量规模达到 50.72 万 亿元。从地方债类型分布来看，存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比为 21%。进一步细 分专项债的募集资金投向，明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域， 存量余额均在 1 万亿以上。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8700 亿元，水利和生态项目存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，广东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，三省地方债存量规模均超过 3 万亿元，其余 GDP 大 省如四川、浙江、湖南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 上周地方政府债共发行 1054.59 亿元，其中，新增专项债 1005.56 亿元，再融资专项债 3.67 亿元。分募集资金用途 来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 年 5 月 14 日，5 月份特殊 再融资专项债发行已有 1 ...

低基数下社融增速上行，但主要由政府债券贡献 去年同期新增政府债券规模为-937 亿，拖累当时社融也罕见负增 658 亿。2025 年政府债券发行规模及进度明显优于 去年同期，带动 2025 年 4 月社融同比多增 1.23 万亿至 1.16 万亿，其中政府债贡献了 84%的新增社融。相比之下，信 贷表现较为低迷，社融口径人民币贷款创历史同期新低，金融机构口径下人民币信贷也为 2005 年以来同期新低。 预期冲击显现，居民短贷超季节性负增 4 月居民部门信贷同比多减 50 亿至-5216 亿，新增规模为历史同期新低。其中短期贷款同比多减 501 亿至-4019 亿、 也创下历史同期新低。短贷在季初通常规律性降低，但本次短贷负增明显高于历史同期（过去五年同期新增短贷均值 为-797 亿）。事实上，4 月居民部门的压力从高频指标中已经有所体现，比如，结合"互联网搜索指数:失业金领取条 件"看，4 月此指标 6MMA 同比增速快速上行 38 个百分点，意味着潜在失业压力增加，居民部门的就业、收入、消费 情况可能均有所转弱，预期及信心不足进而对居民短期贷款产生负向拖累、拉低季初短贷规模。 3 月冲量透支企业短贷需求，内 ...

投资逻辑 回顾 2024 年，资本市场 IT 方面，证券公司经营略有回暖，资产管理公司依旧承压，B 端券商 IT 公司收入、利润有所 下滑；2024 年 A 股日均成交额为 10,634 亿元，同比增长 21.2%，交投情绪明显改善，收益于市场回暖，C 端炒股软件 公司营收同比增长。银行 IT 方面，2024 年国有六大行及股份制银行金融科技投入同比下降，受客户需求节奏放缓、 部分项目实施及验收周期拉长，19 家上市银行 IT 公司营收、扣非归母净利润合计同比下滑。 2025 年 Q1 金融 IT 公司整体经营呈现回暖迹象。其中，资本市场 IT 营收合计同比下滑 8.87%，但毛利润合计同比增 长 10.84%；扣非归母净利润合计较上年同期扭亏为盈，经营质量有所改善；我们统计的 19 家银行 IT 公司，25Q1 营 收同比增长 5.30%，但毛利润、扣非归母净利润分别同比下降 4.85%、15.20%。 我们认为，信创、AI、出海有望成为 25 年金融 IT 公司增长的主要驱动力： 投资建议 当前金融科技公司积极寻求信创、AI 落地、出海等增长点。我们认为 C 端炒股软件公司有望随着资本市场交投持续活 跃保 ...