Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, indicating a potential boom in the domestic rocket launch market in 2026, with the company leading in the development of reusable rockets [7][21] - The report highlights the expected increase in the frequency of rocket launches, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and favorable conditions for commercial rocket companies to go public [21] - The robotics sector is anticipated to experience significant growth in Q1 2026, particularly influenced by Tesla's V3 release and mass production, with a focus on leading companies like Hengli Hydraulic [21] - The report identifies various segments within the machinery industry, noting differing trends: general machinery remains under pressure, engineering machinery is accelerating upward, while shipbuilding is stabilizing and oil service equipment is bottoming out [22][30][36][41] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Feiwo Technology, Guanglian Aviation, and Hengli Hydraulic [13] 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 1.32% over the last week, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59% [15] 3. Core Insights Update - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO acceptance is a significant indicator of the upcoming boom in the domestic rocket launch market, with substantial contracts already secured [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-frequency launches and the potential for commercial rocket companies to list publicly, creating investment opportunities in this sector [21] - The robotics industry is expected to see a strong market focus in early 2026, particularly with Tesla's developments impacting the supply chain [21] 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under continued pressure, with the manufacturing PMI recently rising to 50.1%, marking the first increase above the threshold in eight months [22] - Forklift sales in November 2025 reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [22] 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with excavator sales in November 2025 totaling 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [30] 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth since 2025 [36] 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is stabilizing, with the global new ship price index at 184.33, indicating a slowdown in price declines [38] 4.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with high activity in natural gas development in the Middle East [41] 4.6 Industrial Gases - The report notes that declining raw material prices are improving steel profitability, which is expected to boost industrial gas demand [43] 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [45][47]

Group 1 - The report highlights that global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen alongside increased volatility. The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.76% and 4% respectively on the first trading day of 2026, driven by a rebound from previous stagnation and industry catalysts [2][12] - The report notes that the current value of industrial metals relative to US financial assets and broad money supply is at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued. The report anticipates that low inventory levels combined with monetary easing will amplify asset price fluctuations in the future [2][16] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on maintaining a long position in the medium to long term, with opportunities arising after the volatility of popular commodities decreases [2][16] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for December exceeded market expectations, rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive shift in the economic fundamentals. Key highlights include a seasonal rebound in production, procurement, and business expectations, along with a rise in inventory indices [3][31] - The report discusses the implementation of new policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and an investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment. These measures are expected to smooth out fluctuations in domestic demand in 2026 [3][31] - Export orders have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in container throughput at ports and improved export growth rates in South Korea and Vietnam, indicating that exports remain a crucial component of the economic recovery [3][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the "spring rally" may have already begun, with historical data suggesting a correlation between December and January market performances. The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on the recovery of global manufacturing activities and their impact on Chinese assets [4][41] - The report emphasizes that the internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data exceeding expectations and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts. It recommends focusing on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility for better investment outcomes [5][54] - The report identifies several sectors for investment, including industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery and capital market expansion [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry chain and core computing hardware, with a focus on AI copper-clad boards, PCBs, semiconductor equipment, and domestic computing power benefiting from the AI sector [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) continues to grow, with a positive outlook for future spending. The total CAPEX for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta reached $97.3 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1][13]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain strong, driven by the increasing need for ASICs and GPUs. The global market for ASICs is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2029 [1][41]. - The semiconductor equipment industry is poised for growth due to the expansion of storage capacity and the push for domestic control, with significant opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Continued Optimism for the AI Industry Chain - The high CAPEX of cloud providers is expected to be sustainable, with Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta showing strong growth in capital expenditures [1][13]. - AI server demand is projected to increase significantly, with a 20% year-on-year growth expected in 2026, driven by CSP investments in AI infrastructure [1][34]. Section 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The storage expansion cycle, combined with the need for domestic control, is expected to benefit the semiconductor equipment supply chain. The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and increased stacking layers in NAND will drive demand for advanced manufacturing equipment [2][3]. Section 3: Domestic Computing Power Opportunities - Domestic cloud providers have significant room for increased capital expenditure, with major players like Alibaba planning to invest $58 billion in AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [2][3]. Section 4: AI Edge Applications and Hardware Innovations - Apple's AI strategy focuses on hardware integration and edge AI applications, with expectations for growth in AI/AR glasses and related technologies [3][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for AI copper-clad boards, PCBs, core computing hardware, semiconductor equipment, and domestic computing power, anticipating continued growth in these sectors through 2026 [3].

Group 1: Large Model Ecosystem and Applications - The iteration speed of large models remains high, with a stable ecosystem and trends expected in the short term, including the dominance of closed-source models and the increasing importance of multimodal capabilities [11][12][18] - The application of Agentic AI is accelerating, with a well-established infrastructure supporting rapid deployment in investment research, indicating a shift towards expert agents in the field [21][25] Group 2: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is currently in a weak recovery phase, with manufacturing PMI and PPI showing gradual improvement, suggesting a potential for inflation to rise in 2026 due to external factors like interest rate cuts and AI-driven capital expenditures [53][56][62] - The report anticipates a dual-line market trend of cyclical and technological growth, with a shift in style allocation from small-cap growth to large-cap balance, and a focus on fundamental factors in industry allocation [2][56] Group 3: Factor Stock Selection Outlook - The trend of using AI models for stock selection has increased, but the strategies have become crowded, leading to potential collective drawdowns; optimization methods are being explored to enhance model performance [2][3][21] - The introduction of advanced techniques such as Huber Loss and memory modules aims to reduce excess drawdowns and improve the models' adaptability to market fluctuations [2][3][21] Group 4: 2025 Equity Fund Investment Outlook - Active equity funds are expected to see a return of alpha, particularly in the context of a dual-line market of technology and cyclical sectors, with recommendations for both broad-based and thematic funds [3][4][30] - The new regulations on performance benchmarks are likely to shift the focus towards stock selection alpha as a primary source of excess returns [3][4][30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance industry, with expectations of double-digit growth in new premiums and net profit value (NBV) driven by the migration of deposits and improved margins [2][22]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong household savings demand, with insurance products becoming increasingly attractive as low-risk savings options amid declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The transition towards participating insurance products is anticipated to enhance market share for leading insurance companies, as they leverage their stronger investment capabilities and distribution channels [2][3]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment for insurance stocks, driven by high demand for new policies and a stable investment return outlook, which is expected to support valuation recovery [4][8]. Summary by Sections Liability Side Outlook - New business and NBV are projected to grow at double-digit rates, supported by strong household savings and a shift towards insurance products due to declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The insurance sector is expected to maintain stable margins despite the downward adjustment of preset interest rates and the transition to participating insurance [2][22]. Asset Side Outlook - Insurance funds are expected to actively enter the market, with a significant portion of new premiums allocated to equities, particularly in A-shares [3][16]. - The report anticipates a diversified approach to asset allocation, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][19]. Market Performance Review - The insurance sector has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains in both A-shares and H-shares, indicating strong investor confidence [8][4]. - The report notes that the insurance index has increased by 27.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18.2% [8]. Premium Income and Profitability - New premium income is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with specific companies like China Life and Ping An showing substantial increases in their new business premiums [14][32]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a favorable cost structure and investment returns to support profitability in the insurance sector [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on globalization, intelligence, and high-end market opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition in the domestic market while witnessing significant growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][3]. - The overall vehicle sales are projected to remain stable in 2026, with a notable increase in NEV sales driven by favorable policies and consumer demand [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end vehicles and intelligent driving technologies as key growth areas for automotive companies [5][14]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Review: Intensified Domestic Competition, High Growth in NEV Exports - Total vehicle sales in China for January to November 2025 reached 20.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% in retail and 11.2% in wholesale [2]. - Domestic sales showed slight growth, heavily influenced by policy changes, while exports surged, particularly in the NEV segment, which saw a 19% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The NEV penetration rate reached 40.8% in exports, with significant contributions from plug-in hybrid vehicles [19]. 2. 2026 Outlook: Stability Expected, Acceleration in Globalization and Intelligence - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are expected to reach 22.03 million units in 2026, with NEVs projected to grow by 12% year-on-year [3][4]. - The high-end vehicle segment is anticipated to perform better due to a shift in consumer preferences and the increasing market share of domestic brands [4]. - NEV exports are expected to reach 6.73 million units, with a 34% increase in NEV exports alone, driven by improved product quality and market maturity [4]. 3. Investment Strategy: Favorable Opportunities in Globalization, Intelligence, and High-End Markets - The report highlights the potential for automotive companies that excel in international markets, high-end product offerings, and advanced intelligent driving technologies [5][13]. - Companies like BYD, Geely, and Li Auto are identified as key players likely to benefit from these trends due to their strong export capabilities and innovative products [5][13]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of the AI driving sector, predicting that leading companies will leverage their technological advancements to gain competitive advantages [14][15].

Core Insights - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investors, focusing on state-owned system integrators with core frequency resources for stable beta returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rockets and satellite components for high alpha returns [3] - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for alpha returns as the industry shifts from prototype development to mass production [5] Policy Cycle - Recent policies have provided a long-term development framework for the commercial space industry, with significant catalysts emerging [12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasized the importance of commercial space, while the 15th Five-Year Plan positions it alongside new energy vehicles and integrated circuits as a pillar industry [14] - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and action plans aims to enhance efficiency in launch approvals and promote industry standardization [14] Technology, Application, and Capital Resonance - Key technological breakthroughs are expected to lower costs significantly, with reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 projected to reduce launch costs [30] - The shift from national missions to consumer applications is anticipated, with satellite communication becoming a standard feature in smartphones and vehicles [36] - A surge in capital investment is expected, with the establishment of a national commercial space development fund to support long-term investments [41] Competitive Cycle - SpaceX has established a monopoly-level launch capability, necessitating China to develop its own low-orbit broadband communication network for both commercial and national security reasons [20] External Catalysts - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship has created competitive pressure, prompting domestic policies and capital to favor core companies in the space sector [5] Investment Strategy and Valuation Framework - The valuation framework for commercial space is shifting from a broad narrative of total addressable market (TAM) to specific analyses of price-to-sales (PS) ratios and order visibility [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies deeply integrated into the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, which are expected to benefit first from the transition to mass production [3] Future Catalysts - The report highlights 2026-2027 as critical years for the commercial space industry, with significant developments expected in satellite deployment and launch capabilities [6]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: High-frequency "Gold" Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three types of high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with equal weights to enhance the CSI 1000 Index. It aims to leverage the predictive power of high-frequency factors for stock selection[3][62][66] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine the three high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with weights of 25%, 25%, and 50%, respectively[36][42][51] 2. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[36][42][51] 3. Implement weekly rebalancing with a turnover buffer mechanism to reduce transaction costs[62][66] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong excess return performance both in-sample and out-of-sample, with a stable upward trend in the net value curve[39][66] 2. Model Name: High-frequency & Fundamental Resonance Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates high-frequency factors with fundamental factors (consensus expectations, growth, and technical factors) to improve the performance of multi-factor investment portfolios[67][69] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Combine the three high-frequency factors (price range, price-volume divergence, and regret avoidance) with fundamental factors (consensus expectations, growth, and technical factors) using equal weights[67][69] 2. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[67][69] 3. Implement weekly rebalancing with a turnover buffer mechanism to reduce transaction costs[67][69] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows improved performance metrics compared to the high-frequency-only strategy, with higher annualized returns and Sharpe ratios[69][71] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. High-frequency "Gold" Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - Annualized Return: 9.63% - Annualized Volatility: 23.82% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.40 - Maximum Drawdown: 47.77% - Annualized Excess Return: 9.85% - Tracking Error: 4.32% - IR: 2.28 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 6.04%[63][66] 2. High-frequency & Fundamental Resonance Combination CSI 1000 Index Enhanced Strategy - Annualized Return: 13.80% - Annualized Volatility: 23.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.59 - Maximum Drawdown: 39.60% - Annualized Excess Return: 13.93% - Tracking Error: 4.20% - IR: 3.31 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 4.52%[69][71] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Price Range Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the activity of stock transactions in different price ranges during the day, reflecting investors' expectations of future stock trends[3][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use high-frequency snapshot data to calculate transaction volume and number of transactions in high (80%) and low (10%) price ranges[33][36] 2. Combine sub-factors with weights of 25%, 25%, and 50%[36] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[36] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong predictive power and stable performance, with a steadily upward excess net value curve[39] 2. Factor Name: Price-Volume Divergence Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the correlation between stock price and trading volume. Lower correlation indicates a higher probability of future price increases[3][40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use high-frequency snapshot data to calculate the correlation between price and trading volume, as well as price and transaction count[40][42] 2. Combine sub-factors with equal weights[42] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's performance has been relatively flat in recent years but has shown good excess return this year[44] 3. Factor Name: Regret Avoidance Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on behavioral finance, this factor captures investors' regret avoidance emotions, such as the impact of selling stocks that later rebound[3][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify active buy/sell directions[46] 2. Construct sub-factors like sell rebound ratio and sell rebound deviation, and apply restrictions on small orders and closing trades[46] 3. Combine sub-factors with equal weights and neutralize by industry market capitalization[46][51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows stable upward performance and strong excess return levels out-of-sample[53] 4. Factor Name: Slope Convexity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the impact of order book slope and convexity on expected returns, reflecting investor patience and supply-demand elasticity[3][54] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use order book data to calculate the slope of buy and sell orders at different levels[54] 2. Construct sub-factors for low-level slope and high-level convexity, and combine them[54][58] 3. Neutralize the combined factor by industry market capitalization[58] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown stable performance since 2016, with relatively flat out-of-sample results[61] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Price Range Factor - Annualized Excess Return: 4.90% - IR: 1.13 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 1.89%[36][39] 2. Price-Volume Divergence Factor - Annualized Excess Return: 5.59% - IR: 1.29 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 2.13%[42][44] 3. Regret Avoidance Factor - Annualized Excess Return: -2.62% - IR: -0.61 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 1.69%[46][53] 4. Slope Convexity Factor - Annualized Excess Return: -10.40% - IR: -2.35 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 2.42%[58][61]