Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have generally declined this week, with the interest rate style portfolio showing controlled drawdowns in certain strategies, while some credit style strategies still achieved positive returns [3][16][20] - The average yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 6.8 basis points to -0.04%, with the short-end strategies experiencing the smallest drawdown [3][20] - The long-end strategies in the credit style portfolio have seen a significant drop in average returns, with a decrease of 12.5 basis points to -0.17% [3][20] Group 2 - The sources of returns for the portfolio are primarily from coupon recovery, with significant attention on the configuration and trading space at the beginning of the year [4][28] - The annualized coupon space for certain strategies is notably larger compared to the lows of 2025, with expectations for continued recovery in the mid to long-end strategies [4][28] - The annualized coupon yield for perpetual bonds and the city investment hybrid strategies is around 2.18%-2.19%, indicating potential configuration value [4][28] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the excess returns of the city investment hybrid strategy have shown volatility, with some strategies achieving positive excess returns while others remain in negative territory [5][34] - The short-end strategies have underperformed against benchmarks, while mid to long-end strategies have shown signs of recovery, particularly the secondary bond bullet and perpetual bond strategies [5][37] - The overall excess returns in the long-end strategies have varied significantly among different bond types, with some strategies showing recovery while others remain underperforming [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly highlighting the acquisition of Manus by Meta as a significant trend [2]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - E-commerce is facing pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, but the continuation of national subsidies in 2026 is expected to benefit the sector [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new franchise policies from major players like JD and Tuhu, indicating growth potential in the aftermarket [4]. - The Robotaxi segment is gaining traction with Tesla's recruitment for its autonomous ride-hailing project, presenting investment opportunities [4]. - The AI and cloud sectors are expected to thrive, with a focus on companies with strong operational cash flow, such as Google, Microsoft, Tencent, and Alibaba [4]. - The media sector anticipates a strong year in 2026 with several major game releases, particularly during the upcoming holiday season [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index increased by 2.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng index [9]. - Notable stock performances include Tims (+15.07%) and Luckin Coffee (+3.30%), while some brands like Tea Baidao saw declines [9][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index rose by 6.14%, significantly outperforming other indices [20]. - Key stock performances include iQIYI (+6.28%) and Tencent Music (+1.36%) [20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $309.02 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 3.0% and 6.7% respectively [27]. - Notable stock performances include Tiger Brokers (+15.10%) and Futu Holdings (+8.03%) [29]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index saw a slight increase of 0.44%, with mixed performances among automotive service stocks [32]. - Companies like Meidong Auto (+7.76%) performed well, while others like AutoZone saw declines [32]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.46%, with mixed stock performances [36]. - Notable performances include Beike (+2.04%) and Didi Global (+0.91%) [36]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index fell by 1.52%, with significant stock movements among major tech companies [42]. - Baidu saw a notable increase of 20.43%, while companies like Tesla experienced declines [42]. 1.3 Media - The media index increased by 2.1255%, with advertising and marketing sectors performing well [45]. - Key stock performances include NetEase (+7.32%) and Tencent (+3.32%) [45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power equipment sector, highlighting a structural differentiation in the market with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic market for power grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%. The market is segmented into three main areas: internal grid (approximately 823 billion yuan, +9% YoY), external grid (approximately 580 billion yuan, +19% YoY), and overseas markets (approximately 665 billion yuan, +20% YoY) [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transformers, particularly in the context of the North American market, where there is a significant supply-demand mismatch. The expected supply gap for power transformers in the U.S. by 2025 is projected to be 30% [3][25]. - Solid-state transformers (SST) are highlighted as a disruptive technology with a potential commercial breakthrough expected around 2027, driven by their efficiency and adaptability to high-density computing environments [4][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Framework - The power equipment sector is categorized into six main business types, including smart systems, high-voltage equipment, medium and low-voltage equipment, metering devices, materials, and low-voltage electrical appliances [13][14]. - The report outlines a structural differentiation in the market, with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion as key growth areas [18][23]. Market Demand and Trends - The report forecasts that the internal market (State Grid and Southern Grid) will reach approximately 835 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9% YoY. The demand for high-voltage transformers and related equipment is expected to remain strong due to ongoing infrastructure investments [22][25]. - The external market, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is anticipated to grow significantly, with wind power installations expected to increase by 51% YoY in 2025 [22][26]. Detailed Market Tracking - The report provides a detailed analysis of ten sub-markets, indicating that the main grid and overseas markets are expected to maintain high levels of activity. The State Grid's investment in transmission and transformation equipment is projected to grow by 26% YoY, with significant contributions from leading companies [24][25]. - The report also notes a recovery in the distribution network segment, with price adjustments expected to enhance profitability starting in 2026 [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main investment lines: undervalued brokerages, companies in the biotechnology sector, and diversified financial firms with strong performance growth [2][4]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a plan to enhance the digital RMB management system, expected to optimize monetary policy transmission and support the internationalization of the RMB, creating opportunities in the payment sector [1][40]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on public fund sales fees, encouraging long-term holding by investors and benefiting the public fund industry [1][41][42]. - The insurance sector is expected to see stable net profits and net assets due to high tax-exempt income and deferred tax liabilities, with a low taxable income forecast for 2024-2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The digital RMB is set to officially launch on January 1, 2026, with expectations to enhance monetary policy efficiency and broaden application scenarios, benefiting related industries [1]. - The new fund sales fee regulations are aimed at reducing costs for investors and promoting a healthier ecosystem for public funds [1][41][42]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokerages for potential gains, particularly recommending Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [2]. - Highlighting Sichuan Shuangma's advantages in the technology sector and its investments in gene therapy, with a strong pipeline of projects [2]. - Recommend diversified financial firms like Yixin Group and Far East Horizon for their impressive performance growth [2]. Insurance Sector - The tax base switch is not expected to significantly impact insurance companies' net profits or net assets, with a high proportion of tax-exempt income [3]. - The report anticipates a favorable environment for insurance stocks driven by high demand in the liability sector and a supportive market for asset management [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a recent decline in the A-share market, with the non-bank financial sector underperforming compared to the broader market [10]. - The brokerage and insurance sectors have shown varied performance, with specific recommendations for companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [10][12].

超长债偏弱运行的三重压力 岁末阶段，收益率曲线整体沿陡峭化路径运行，与我们此前提示一致。在长端整体承压的背景下，超长期限调整幅度 更为突出。这反映出超长端的三重压力正在被广泛预期和集中定价： 供给压力不小，而流动性红利近尾声。从发行、存量与成交期限三个维度进行国际比较可见，当前国内政府债融资和 存量期限结构与美国较为相似。而若与德日对比，尤其是在低利率环境与跨周期资金需求的双重推动下，仍不排除有 进一步向长期限结构演变的空间。然而，与融资期限的长期化相比，超长债流动性的提升可能已接近瓶颈。国内超长 债交易活跃度已显著高于海外成熟市场，进一步扩张空间受限。这些潜在变化方向，对超长债利差构成向上压力。 对融资成本的政策导向从"推动下降"转向"低位运行"，从比价角度制约超长端利率下行空间。央行措辞变化反映 出，社会融资成本或已处于政策合意的低位水平。而过去五年间，30 年期国债利率累计下行约 146BP，与企业贷款利 率 147BP 的降幅基本持平。比价维度看，超长端利率脱离比价关系而下行的动力显著降低。 需求格局存在挑战。当前市场对久期边际偏好减弱、负债端对波动容忍度下降，机构对超长债的承接力弱化。对 30- 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The real estate sector remains a foundational industry for the national economy, contributing 13% to GDP and directly supporting 70 million jobs in China. The potential for new residential construction is significant, estimated at 10 million to 14.9 million units annually, translating to approximately 600 to 900 million square meters of new housing [1][11] - There is a substantial demand for housing updates, with an estimated 700 million square meters needed annually due to a 2% depreciation rate on the existing housing stock of approximately 35 billion square meters [1][11] - The business model in real estate is shifting from a high-cost model to an integrated approach of product-service-operation, emphasizing quality and diverse living services over mere availability [1][11] - The capital market is expected to see an 18.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025, while the building materials index, excluding the fiberglass sector, is underperforming. Companies with strong alpha attributes in the real estate chain are gaining market recognition despite the overall industry not stabilizing yet [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the fundamental changes in the real estate sector in 2026, as well as the performance of companies like China Jushi, which is planning to grant stock options to employees, indicating a focus on long-term profitability [2][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The real estate sector is crucial for the economy, with a significant contribution to GDP and employment. The potential for new housing construction is substantial, and there is a large demand for housing updates [1][11] - The shift in real estate business models towards integrated services is noted, with a call for decisive policy support to avoid market and policy conflicts [1][11] Market Performance - The building materials index has decreased by 1.25%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass showing notable declines. The overall market sentiment remains cautious [2][16] - Despite the downturn, certain companies in the real estate supply chain are experiencing growth and valuation premiums, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][12] Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of cement has decreased to 353 CNY per ton, with a national average shipment rate of 40.3%. The market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to weak demand [3][20][21] - The price of float glass has seen a slight decline, with the average price at 1121.29 CNY per ton. Inventory levels are decreasing, but overall market sentiment remains weak [3][28][42] - The fiberglass market is stable, with prices for 2400tex direct yarn remaining steady at around 3535.25 CNY per ton, indicating a balance between supply and demand [3][49][53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious approach given the current market conditions and ongoing developments in regulations and company strategies [4][30]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a resurgence at the beginning of the year, with a total market capitalization returning to $3 trillion, reflecting a 2.4% increase week-on-week. Bitcoin closed at $89,945 per coin, up 3.0%, while Ethereum closed at $3,124, up 6.8% [1][10]. - The current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still in the fear zone, with a fear and greed index of 38, indicating a cautious outlook despite recent price increases [1][12]. - Trading volumes have continued to decline, with a 14.4% drop in global cryptocurrency transaction volume week-on-week, marking the sixth consecutive week of decline [1][20]. - Regulatory developments are significant, with the OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework set to take effect in 2027, requiring local crypto service providers to collect user data starting in 2026 [2][26]. - Major companies in the industry are pivoting towards new opportunities, such as Coinbase's plans to expand its trading platform and payment services, and Bitfarms' transition towards AI and high-performance computing [3][28][29]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing week-on-week increases of 3.0% and 6.8%, respectively [1][10]. - The average holding price for Bitcoin is approximately $56,137, indicating that current prices are below the short-term investors' cost [12][15]. - The options market suggests a higher probability of price declines in the coming months, with significant liquidation risks if Bitcoin prices fall [15][20]. Global Policy and Industry News - The OECD's Crypto Asset Reporting Framework will be implemented in 2027, with 48 jurisdictions starting data collection in 2026 [2][26]. - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance a digital asset market structure bill, while the OCC has clarified that national banks can engage in risk-free crypto transactions [2][22]. - The UK plans to regulate crypto assets within its financial services framework by 2027 [2][22]. Company News - Coinbase aims to become the leading financial application globally by expanding its trading platform and payment services [3][28][29]. - Bitfarms is selling its Latin American mining operations to focus on AI and high-performance computing [3][28]. - Tether has invested in Southeast Asian payment company SQRIL to enhance USDT's application in regional payment scenarios [3][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the progress of the U.S. Clarity Act and the potential exclusion of certain crypto treasury companies from MSCI indices [4][30]. - It recommends focusing on crypto mining companies with partnerships with Google and those with substantial power reserves, as well as trading platforms that are exploring opportunities in prediction markets and stock tokenization [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electric new energy sector, particularly highlighting the potential for strong performance in 2026 [5][10]. Core Insights - The electric new energy sector is experiencing significant catalysts, including the rapid IPO progress of companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and price increases in solar components by Trina Solar, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of space photovoltaics and commercial aerospace as key investment themes, alongside the rising prices in energy storage and lithium batteries [5][10]. - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is on track for a recovery, driven by price increases and improved profitability across the supply chain [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The report highlights the acceleration of IPOs in the commercial aerospace sector, particularly for space photovoltaics, with significant growth potential [6][8]. - Trina Solar has set a new price range for distributed solar components at 0.82-1.06 CNY/W, which is significantly higher than recent market prices, indicating the start of a price recovery [8][9]. - The report notes ongoing efforts to strengthen intellectual property protections in the photovoltaic industry, which supports the trend of profitability recovery [6][9]. Wind Power - In December, new wind turbine tenders in China reached approximately 10.6 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [2][11]. - The report anticipates continued growth in domestic demand for wind power in 2026, with significant overseas orders expected to materialize [12][15]. - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has remained high, with all power segments achieving over 10% price increases year-on-year [15][16]. Lithium Batteries - January production data indicates a slight decrease in domestic battery production, with a total of 142.54 GWh, down 4.23% month-on-month [22][23]. - Tianqi Lithium has forecasted a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [22][23]. - The report highlights the ongoing price recovery in lithium battery materials, with significant growth in sales volumes contributing to improved profitability [22][23]. AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) - The report notes a sustained high market interest in the liquid cooling sector, driven by industry trends and the penetration of leading domestic companies [30][31]. - Investment opportunities are identified in companies that provide comprehensive liquid cooling solutions, particularly as demand for data center infrastructure grows [30][31]. Power Grid - The report mentions the approval of significant high-voltage projects, indicating a rapid acceleration in approvals and tenders for high-voltage equipment [32][33]. - The total tendering amount for the State Grid in 2025 is projected to reach 454.4 billion CNY, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [32][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transformer technology and the expected supply-demand imbalance in the North American market, presenting opportunities for companies with strong delivery capabilities [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and industries benefiting from self-control [3][26]. Core Insights - The demand for AI is driving significant investments in infrastructure, with major cloud service providers expected to invest a total of $600 billion by 2026, leading to substantial price increases in storage chips [1]. - The report predicts that storage contract prices will continue to rise by 30% to 40% in Q1 2026, with specific increases in DDR5 RDIMM memory prices expected to exceed 40% [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is expected to see strong performance in Q4 and the first half of the following year, driven by robust demand from companies like NVIDIA and major cloud providers [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Electronics - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of AI applications in consumer electronics, particularly in the Apple supply chain and smart glasses, with a focus on enhancing processing power and memory [4]. - AI mobile applications are expected to see significant growth, with various manufacturers launching new products [4]. 2. PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for copper-clad laminates, driven by the automotive and industrial sectors, as well as AI applications [5]. - The report indicates that the PCB market is maintaining a high level of activity, with price increases expected due to supply constraints [5]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is projected to see a significant upturn, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 18% to 23% in Q4 2025 due to increased demand from cloud service providers [19][22]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is also expected to benefit from rising demand, with a focus on domestic production capabilities in light of export controls [23][25]. 4. AI and Computing Hardware - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI-related hardware, with companies like TSMC expected to ramp up production of advanced nodes to meet this demand [1][26]. - The AI hardware supply chain is projected to experience substantial growth, with companies actively expanding production capacities [1][3]. 5. Market Trends - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains positive, with various sectors showing signs of recovery and growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor-related industries [3][26]. - The report suggests that companies involved in AI hardware and related technologies are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in the market [1][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing a 5% year-on-year growth in business volume, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The report recommends SF Express for its valuation and operational resilience, while also being optimistic about ZTO Express due to its increasing market share in the low-price segment [2] - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remain stable, and the report recommends Haicheng Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3] - The aviation sector is seeing a significant increase in passenger flow, with over 200 million people traveling during the New Year holiday, and the report recommends China Southern Airlines and Air China due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand [4] - The shipping sector shows a slight increase in container shipping indices, with potential benefits from geopolitical events affecting oil transportation. The report notes a 42.5% year-on-year increase in the crude oil transportation index [5] - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with a slight decrease in truck traffic on highways but overall competitive dividend yields compared to government bonds [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1%, with the aviation sector showing the highest increase at +4.8% and logistics experiencing the largest decline at -3.4% [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - Container shipping is stabilizing, with a slight increase in freight rates supported by seasonal demand. The report anticipates pressure on rates in mid-January due to expected capacity growth [21] - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [22] Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in November, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [54] - The report highlights that major airlines are expected to see significant profit increases due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [54][75] Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 8.94% and freight volume of 1.16% in November, indicating a positive trend in transportation demand [78] - The road sector experienced a slight decline in passenger traffic but an increase in freight volume, with competitive dividend yields noted for major road operators [83]