科学仪器进口成本上升，倒逼国产替代加速 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 12 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 科学仪器进口成本上升，倒逼国产替代加速 2025 年 4 月 12 日 本期内容提 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 开立医疗(300633) 投资评级 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 业绩增长承压，静待下半年招采回暖 内镜延续高增长趋势，盈利能力逐步 提升 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 业绩短期承压，新品放量+招采回暖有望提振 盈利能力 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 12 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 20.14 亿元（yoy- 5.02%），归母净利润 1.42 亿元（yoy-68.67%），扣非归母净利润 1.10 亿 元（yoy-75.07%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额 3.07 亿元（yoy -37.35%）。 其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 6.16 亿元（yoy-5.63%），归母净利润 0.33 亿 元（yoy-75.03%）。 点评： ...

【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] 样本建筑工地资金到位率继续上升，有利于增加钢材需求 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 12 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [样本建筑工地资金到位率继续上升，有利于增加钢材需 Table_Title] 求 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 12 日 本期内 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 was 664 million, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million, down 16.8% year-on-year. The gross margin was 67.05%, a decline of 2.11 percentage points [1][2] - The company is advancing its core product business and expanding its Xinchuang (信创) initiatives, which are expected to bring incremental growth. The A5 system has been implemented in multiple institutions, and the company has won a project with Everbright Securities for a new core trading system [2] - The integration of AI capabilities into products has been significant, with enhancements in LiveData and the launch of LiveBOS AI, which includes various intelligent components [2] - Cost control measures have been effective, with sales, management, and R&D expenses showing reductions compared to the previous year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from its dual-driven technology ecosystem of AI and Xinchuang, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 1.07, 1.31, and 1.63 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 36.25, 29.63, and 23.70 [2][3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 744 million, with a projected increase to 746 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 219 million in 2025, after a decline in 2024 [3] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 67.7% in 2025 [3] - The company’s total assets were 1,886 million in 2023, with a slight decrease to 1,821 million in 2024, and expected growth in subsequent years [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the convergence of basis in stock index futures and aims to optimize hedging performance by continuously rolling over contracts[44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to April 11, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining maturity is less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price and roll over to the next contract[45] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to April 11, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts daily and select the contract with the smallest discount. Hold the selected contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining maturity is less than 2 days before reselecting[46] - **Assumptions**: No transaction fees, impact costs, or indivisibility of futures contracts are considered[46] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.08% (monthly), -1.71% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.98% (monthly), 4.89% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.9449 (monthly), 0.9544 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - YTD Return (2025): -0.97% (monthly), 0.04% (quarterly)[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.01% (monthly), 1.06% (quarterly)[53] - Volatility: 3.12% (monthly), 3.46% (quarterly)[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[53] - Net Value: 1.0275 (monthly), 1.0288 (quarterly)[53] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[53] - YTD Return (2025): 0.42% (monthly), 0.89% (quarterly)[53] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.42% (monthly), 2.20% (quarterly)[57] - Volatility: 3.23% (monthly), 3.66% (quarterly)[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly)[57] - Net Value: 1.0389 (monthly), 1.0604 (quarterly)[57] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[57] - YTD Return (2025): 0.80% (monthly), 1.10% (quarterly)[57] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -4.95% (monthly), -3.96% (quarterly)[59] - Volatility: 4.39% (monthly), 5.48% (quarterly)[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -13.84% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[59] - Net Value: 0.8718 (monthly), 0.8965 (quarterly)[59] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[59] - YTD Return (2025): -1.53% (monthly), -0.34% (quarterly)[59] 2. Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -0.83%[48] - Volatility: 4.80%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[48] - Net Value: 0.9778[48] - Annual Turnover: 18.14[48] - YTD Return (2025): -0.09%[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.60%[53] - Volatility: 3.24%[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[53] - Net Value: 1.0439[53] - Annual Turnover: 15.55[53] - YTD Return (2025): 1.03%[53] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.86%[57] - Volatility: 3.23%[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[57] - Net Value: 1.0510[57] - Annual Turnover: 17.03[57] - YTD Return (2025): 0.98%[57] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -3.44%[59] - Volatility: 5.34%[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[59] - Net Value: 0.9098[59] - Annual Turnover: 16.66[59] - YTD Return (2025): -0.27%[59] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market expectations of future volatility based on option pricing, with adjustments for the Chinese market[62] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Derived from option prices to measure expected volatility over different time horizons[62] - Includes term structures to capture volatility expectations for different maturities[62] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and risk expectations[62] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness in implied volatility across different strike prices, indicating market expectations of extreme events[68] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Captures the slope of implied volatility across strike prices[68] - Higher values indicate greater concern for tail risks[68] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing market concerns about extreme downside risks[68] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 22.26[62] - CSI 300: 22.97[62] - CSI 500: 31.73[62] - CSI 1000: 32.42[62] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 100.46[69] - CSI 300: 101.54[69] - CSI 500: 101.32[69] - CSI 1000: 100.09[69]

| ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 中美通胀的相似与分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 11 日 ➢ 风险因素：地缘政治风险，国际油价上涨超预期等。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 中国 CPI 暂未能实现转正的两个压制。中国 3 月 CPI 降幅收窄至 0.1%， 但暂未能实现转正，我们认为这主要有两方面的压制。压制 1：消费品价 格整体仍 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 40.73 billion yuan (up 3.0% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.10 billion yuan (up 0.5% year-on-year) [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.75 billion yuan (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 642 million yuan (down 32.3% year-on-year), indicating a challenging quarter [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by rising pulp prices and improved cost management [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.10 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 14.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage point [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.61 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 4.57 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.4X, and 8.6X [5][6] Segment Performance - In the wood pulp segment, the company reported revenues of 5.98 billion yuan for non-coated cultural paper and 2.01 billion yuan for coated paper in H2 2024, with respective year-on-year changes of -11.6% and +4.4% [2] - The waste paper segment saw revenues of 5.73 billion yuan for boxboard paper in H2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [3] - The company is advancing its integrated pulp and paper projects, with total capacity expected to exceed 12 million tons by the end of 2024 [4] Future Outlook - The company is set to trial production for several projects in 2025, including specialty paper and chemical pulp lines, which are expected to enhance production capacity [4] - The report highlights a stable cash flow and operational efficiency, with operating cash flow for Q4 2024 at 2.69 billion yuan, an increase of 1.72 billion yuan year-on-year [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on growth potential and strategic initiatives [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.467 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.06%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 106 million yuan, up 1.61% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.253 yuan per share, totaling 35 million yuan, with an overall dividend payout ratio of 47.13% for the year [1]. - The company is expanding its physical presence by opening 62 new stores in key cities, with a net increase of 21 stores, while also enhancing its online sales, which reached 720 million yuan, a 17% increase [2]. - A partnership with Bandai Namco is expected to create a new growth avenue through the establishment of a flagship store for Gundam in Jiangsu, marking entry into the IP retail market [3]. - Government policies aimed at boosting birth rates and consumer spending are anticipated to positively impact the industry, with a reported increase in birth rates in 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.467 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.1% compared to 2023 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 106 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [8]. - The company forecasts net profits of 128 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 177 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 19.8%, 18.4%, and 17.2% [6]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 26.8% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 26.65 in 2025 to 19.20 in 2027, indicating potential valuation improvement [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on growth potential and strategic initiatives [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 3.467 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.06%, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, up 1.61% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.253 yuan per share, totaling 35 million yuan, with an overall dividend payout ratio of 47.13% for the year [1]. - The company is expanding its physical presence by opening 62 new stores in various cities, with a net increase of 21 stores, focusing on shopping centers with optimal sizes for operational efficiency [2]. - Online sales reached 720 million yuan in 2024, marking a 17% increase, with a focus on third-party platforms [2]. - The collaboration with Bandai Namco is expected to create a second growth curve, with the opening of the first Gundam Base in Jiangsu in December 2024 [3]. - National policies promoting childbirth and consumption are anticipated to benefit the industry, with a reported increase in birth rates [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 128 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 177 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20%, 18%, and 17% [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.804 billion yuan, 4.227 billion yuan, and 4.684 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9.7%, 11.1%, and 10.8% [8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 26.8% from 2025 to 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment in the 2025 crude oil inventory forecast by EIA, indicating a more cautious outlook on supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][20] Summary by Sections Crude Oil Price Overview - As of April 9, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were $65.48, $62.35, $56.53, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with month-to-date changes of -5.48% for Brent and -5.57% for WTI [7][8] Crude Oil Inventory - As of April 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 83,905.5 million barrels, with a month-on-month increase of 824.4 million barrels [14][19] - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +57.52, +3.11, and -138.23 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average forecast change of -25.87 thousand barrels per day [20] Crude Oil Supply - The 2025 global crude oil supply forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,448.69, 10,416.72, and 10,381.77 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases from 2024 [26] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year supply increments are +150.86, +120.55, and +144.82 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [26] Crude Oil Demand - The 2025 global crude oil demand forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,391.17, 10,413.61, and 10,520.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases from 2024 [20] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year demand increments are +123.54, +188.93, and +144.24 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [20] Related Listed Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1][2]