期货研究报告|聚酯产业链专题 2025-12-26 PX 供应还有多少提升空间——国内篇 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 在对明年上半年供需偏紧的预期下，近期 PX 价格强势上涨，长短流程经济性都得到了 极大的提升，PXN 突破 360 元/吨，创下近五年 12 月的最高记录，也是 2024 年 6 月中 以来的高点，纸货 5 月 PXN 已经达到 380 美元/吨附近。当前 PX 在聚酯产业链中利润 表现最好，随着 PX 的 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on December 25, 2025 [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 880,800 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,015,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,176,500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 88,300 contracts; GEM ETF options was 1,763,900 contracts; Shanghai - 50 stock index options was 18,800 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 94,600 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 239,600 contracts [1] Option PCR - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.74, with a month - on - month change of +0.19; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02 [2] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; the open interest PCR was 0.93, with a month - on - month change of - 0.18 [2] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.54, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the open interest PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22 [2] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.62, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the open interest PCR was 1.43, with a month - on - month change of +0.03 [2] - GEM ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.73, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the open interest PCR was 1.11, with a month - on - month change of - 0.39 [2] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.47, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the open interest PCR was 0.66, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 300 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.41, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.69, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.44, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 [2] Option VIX - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The VIX was 13.41%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22% [3] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 15.20%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.37% [3] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 19.32%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.26% [3] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The VIX was 19.46%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.74% [3] - GEM ETF options: The VIX was 25.06%, with a month - on - month change of +0.16% [3] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The VIX was 14.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.43% [3] - CSI 300 stock index options: The VIX was 15.94%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.36% [3] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The VIX was 19.09%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.40% [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 苹果优果价格坚挺，红枣旺季消费偏弱 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9208元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1008，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-808，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士主流行情稳定，成交氛围仍显一般。洛川部分产区果农货价格略有松动，目前部分产 区果农货询价增多，库内包装发运略有增加，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果 农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量 75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/ 斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ 斤。 ...

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].

油料日报 | 2025-12-26 花生出货压力依存，盘面震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 无 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4125.00元/吨，较前日变化+19.00元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+115，较前日变化-19，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆出现上涨，普调40元/吨，主因产区农户余粮不足惜售，贸易商当前也是持货待 涨。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.26元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤。南 方产区大豆大稳小动，主因高品质豆稀缺。今日南方产区杂花豆，蛋白42-43%，安徽淮北百善报价2.65元/斤；河 南周口报价2.60元/斤。销区市场目前以随用随采为主，目前库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are expected to face pressure due to supply-side pressure and the potential disappointment of consumption peak season expectations, but may show a relatively weak trend even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, with caution needed regarding overseas inventory impacts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 190 yuan/ton to 23,030 yuan/ton, with a premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 23,010 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 25, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,085 yuan/ton, closed at 23,065 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,213 lots, and the open interest was 93,322 lots. The intraday high was 23,095 yuan/ton, and the low was 22,910 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventory is increasing and is about to exceed the average level of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build-up is expected to continue, and the current inventory build-up is accelerating. If the consumption peak season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side pressure restricts the rebound height of the propylene market. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply is loose. Demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure on downstream industries. Although the cost - side support has strengthened recently, the short - term rebound of the market driven by sentiment may be limited [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves various data such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5772 yuan/ton (+14), the East China basis is 78 yuan/ton (-14), and the North China basis is - 260 yuan/ton (-75) [1][7][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+1%). Different production methods have different profit situations, such as PDH production, MTO production, and naphtha cracking production. The import profit is - 388 yuan/ton (+7) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Different downstream products have different capacity utilization and profit changes. For example, PP powder capacity utilization is 37% (-0.20%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 74% (-2%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+230); etc [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant - level inventory is 46010 tons (-550), and there is also data on PP powder plant - level inventory [1][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]

化工日报 | 2025-12-26 EG供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3818元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3635元/吨（较前一交易日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.03%），EG华东现货基差-8元/吨（环比+5元/吨）. 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+16美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-949 元/吨（环比+97元/吨）。 风险 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着合成气制装置重启，国内乙二醇负荷再度回升至7成以上，1~2月高供应和需 求转弱下累库压力仍大，合计在50万 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 年底挺价意愿渐强，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11460元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.17%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+280，较前交易日变动-40；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.91元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+450，较前交易日变动+10；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.89元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+430，较前交易日变动+120。 据农业农村部监测，12月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.26，比昨天下降0.07个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.16，比昨天下降0.08个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.44元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；牛肉65.88 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉62.76元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.32元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；白条鸡17.67元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 ...