油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-26 市场预期偏弱，盘面承压运行 市场分析 1、\t12月25日地区价格：山东市场，4200-4330；东北市场，4100-4300；华北市场，4200-4350；华东市场，4250-4400； 沿江市场，4570-4880；西北市场，4100-4270；华南市场，4470-4530。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷598美元/吨，稳定，丁烷588美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4639元/吨，稳定，丁烷4562元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷591美元/吨，稳定，丁烷581美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4585元/吨，稳定，丁烷4507元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期LPG外盘价格走势维持震荡偏强，但国内市场氛围相对平淡，昨日局部现货价格走低。其中，山东民用气与 醚后碳四市场主流成交价格继续下跌，区内民用气及醚后碳四出货欠佳，卖方降价刺激出货，下游逢低采买，带 动出货好转。整体来看，当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，多数地区醚后碳四与民用气价格呈现倒挂， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the upward breakthrough of aluminum prices faces difficulties due to the approaching off - season of consumption, increased aluminum ingot arrivals, and expanding spot discounts. In the long term, overseas power costs may lead to potential production cuts, and with low domestic inventory and expected policy easing, the downside of aluminum prices is limited [7] - The alumina spot market price is on a downward trend, with the near - month basis narrowing. The supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 330 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 265 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,275 yuan/ton, a change of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,060 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 229,349 lots, and the position was 290,474 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a change of 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 76,758 tons, a change of 322 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 521,050 tons, a change of 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On December 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,715 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,765 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,670 yuan/ton, closed at 2,646 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.71%. The highest price was 2,678 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,627 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 279,750 lots, and the position was 245,088 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with local spot prices rebounding. The market is a mix of long and short factors, showing a north - south divide. The cost side support is strengthening marginally, and the northern winter storage demand is consolidating the bottom signal. However, the actual fundamentals are still weak, especially in the south where there is a large supply of low - priced resources and significant surplus pressure. The local surplus contradiction needs time to resolve, and the risk of raw material supply tightening is a potential upward driver [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 181,112 lots, down 8,923 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,574 lots, down 25,367 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton; South China: 2,850 - 2,950 yuan/ton; East China: 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton. Asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various asphalt - related data such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, weekly production, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and refinery and social inventories [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Amid policy expectation swings, focus on high - certainty sectors like non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and make risk plans for potential market adjustments [1][4] - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Chinese policies emphasize active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with multiple ministries responding. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. In November, China's foreign trade rebounded, but the economy was still under pressure. On December 25, A - share indices rose, the offshore RMB broke through 7.0 against the US dollar [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, buying $40 billion of short - term bonds in 30 days and cutting rates by 25 basis points. The US economic data showed a mixed picture. There are risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The impact of this rate hike was limited due to low foreign ownership of Japanese bonds and stable dollar - yen net long positions [3] Commodity Analysis - In the inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints. Energy has supply - related issues, and geopolitical factors affect the market. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and agricultural product procurement plans are also worth attention. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but beware of short - term silver risks [4] Strategy - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] To - do News - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 7 - day winning streak. The RMB against the US dollar reached new highs. The volume of pledged repurchase hit a new high. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [7] - Israel and Hamas had a new dispute, and Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not give up joining NATO [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve but still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upside potential if there are relevant policies. For polysilicon, manufacturers' production cuts and positive policies support prices, and the consumer end is boosted, with the price expected to fluctuate upwards [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8820 yuan/ton and closed at 8835 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.28%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 216554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 24, 2025, was 9259 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, down 1.43% from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the expected output in December was around 11.4 tons, with limited change in demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly, with a possible reduction of about 5000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the demand in the aluminum alloy downstream weakened marginally [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 57780 yuan/ton and closing at 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.80% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 132126 lots, and the trading volume was 124231 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25000.00 tons, up 1.20% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week [4] - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were basically stable, with only slight changes in some products [4][5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation [3] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [6]

期货行情： 2025-12-25，沪铜主力合约开于 95910元/吨，收于 96210元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.11%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 96,410元/吨，收于 96,280 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.57%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价贴水400至260元/吨，均价贴水330元/吨，较昨日下跌20元。1#电解铜价格 区间为94300-95220元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约震荡上行，午前收于95230元/吨附近。现货市场报价继续走弱，部分 冶炼厂低价出货，下游需求整体疲软。早盘主流平水铜贴水360-300元/吨，好铜货源稀少，报价难寻。第二时段后 平水铜贴水扩大至400元/吨附近，整体成交清淡。跨月价差维持C220-C180元/吨。随着交易转向下月票，预计现货 流动性将进一步下降，升水或延续下行趋势。 圣诞假期海外休市 但铜价依然维持偏强态势 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 市场要闻与重要数据 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，12月25 ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The 2025/26 global cotton production and demand are both decreasing, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production is slightly increasing, and the northern hemisphere's new cotton supply pressure is high. The global textile consumption is still weak. The domestic cotton production continues to increase, with sufficient short - term supply. The demand is improving with the approaching festivals. Considering the expected reduction in cotton planting and production in Xinjiang in 2026, the cotton price is expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in a definite surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. The domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but the port inventory is declining. With the expansion of downstream paper production capacity, the pulp price may gradually stabilize [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,255 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,086 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,279 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The Pakistani cotton market trading slowed, and the local cotton price was stable. The KCA's 2025/26 annual spot price was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data in this month is small. The US cotton production is increasing slightly, and the short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic cotton production continues to increase in 2025/26. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the hedging resistance on the disk is weakening. The new orders in the off - season are few, but the market sentiment is improving [2]. Strategy Neutral to bullish. The domestic cotton consumption is increasing, the new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price is optimistic after the seasonal pressure [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,269 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2025/26 Thai sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased compared with the same period last year [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. - Zheng sugar: The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. Strategy Neutral. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low, and there is a possibility of rebound [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,604 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was weak [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar and Finnlin Group. - Demand: The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient. The port inventory is high but declining. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7]. Strategy Neutral. The overseas supply is disturbed, and the domestic demand may have a mild recovery before the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the increase depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [8].

尿素日报 | 2025-12-26 环保预警再现，上下游生产或减量 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-25，尿素主力收盘1740元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-10 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-30元/吨（-5）；江苏基差：-20元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润151元/吨（+0），出口利润821元/ 吨（-13）。 供应端：截至2025-12-25，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-25，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，价格上涨新单成交 放缓。但河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始， 环保预警再现，供应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the rebound of Shanghai nickel is restricted by the fundamentals, and it will likely enter a range - bound pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesian policies, inventory changes, and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, due to low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the game between policy support and weak fundamentals [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 127,500 yuan/ton and closed at 125,410 yuan/ton, a - 1.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 650,804 (- 444,527) lots, and the open interest was 144,402 (- 7,820) lots. The price movement was the result of the game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. In the short term, the nickel price will be driven by market sentiment to maintain a slightly stronger oscillation pattern but is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market trading has become sluggish, and prices are mainly stable. In the Philippines, northern mines have limited shipments, and mines have a price - holding attitude. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 130,800 yuan/ton, a 3,000 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the transaction center has shifted significantly upwards. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly been adjusted upwards [2]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operations, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,990 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,852 (- 81,031) lots, and the open interest was 101,925 (- 4,171) lots. Affected by the回调 of Shanghai nickel, the rebound of the stainless - steel main contract paused. If policy support is insufficient, the future rebound strength is expected to be limited [4]. - **Spot**: The futures market has weakened, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market is 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,025 (+0) yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].