Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton (a change of -3 yuan/ton, or -0.08% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton (a change of +93 yuan/ton, or +2.45% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -2 yuan/ton) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month increase of +20 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +114 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.3 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (a month-on-month increase of 2.8 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall supply and demand logic of the fundamentals shows that on the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level. There is still great pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply and weakening demand from January to February. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after the end of February, but it remains high from January to February, and there will be a slight reduction in inventory in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are gradually being implemented in mid-January, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term funds are flowing into the chemical products sector. Be cautiously bullish, but the fundamentals of EG are still weak, and prices may fluctuate significantly. Pay attention to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage between EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. 4. Directory Summaries Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3994 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3885 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was -120 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -40 US dollars/ton, and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -752 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January are gradually being implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load are accelerating their decline, and the support of rigid demand is weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China for MEG was 85.8 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons. The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 备货需求逐步释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场分析 豆粕库存持续消耗，但仍明显高于历史同期，大豆库存同样维持高位。受到美豆提振的影响，国内豆粕价格短期 同步偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压力仍存，随着未来新季大豆上市供应压力逐步释放，预计豆粕价格仍将偏弱运 行。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美收获情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2769元/吨，较前日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2605合约2269元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+401，较前日变动-28；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+301，较前日变动-18； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+311，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，1月23日，美国农业部公布的出口销售报告 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-27 供需矛盾有限，盘面冲高回落 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪修复，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃主力合约呈现震荡反弹态势。现货方面，市场报价持稳，期现市场交投氛围较之前有所回暖。 供需和逻辑：短期市场情绪修复，前期超跌后存在反弹需求。供应端冷修延续，部分地区厂家出货略有好转，库 存压力边际缓解，浮法玻仍以刚需采购为主。 纯碱：昨日纯碱主力合约震荡反弹走势。现货方面，市场报价随盘面高位震荡，下游观望为主，期现交易较之前 有所好转。 供需与逻辑：开工率有所下降，但是库存有所上升，春节小长假在即，浮法玻璃需求低迷，补库较弱，基本面矛 盾加深。短期来看，受益于市场情绪修复，投机需求上升，预计价格仍将维持震荡。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：观望情绪浓厚，价格震荡运行 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅主力合约日内前弱运行，收盘结算价微跌，周初整体处于震荡运行状态。现货方面：合金成 本支撑尚可，6517北方市场价格5570-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5700-5750 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On January 23, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 936,900 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,213,500 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,500,700 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 66,100 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,618,100 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 47,000 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 84,100 contracts; and CSI 1000 index options was 327,200 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day, including SSE 50 ETF options, CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc [21] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.99, with a month - on - month change of +0.24; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.70, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02. Similar data is provided for other types of options [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR and its month - on - month change, as well as the open interest PCR and its month - on - month change, for various index ETF options [32] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 17.57%, with a month - on - month change of +1.65%. Similar data is provided for other types of options [3] - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [45]

流动性日报 | 2026-01-26 市场流动性概况 2026-01-23，股指板块成交9288.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+28.08%；持仓金额17750.07亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.01%；成交持仓比为52.53%。 国债板块成交3345.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+30.75%；持仓金额8543.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.03%；成交 持仓比为39.53%。 基本金属板块成交9685.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.32%；持仓金额8184.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.10%； 成交持仓比为113.38%。 贵金属板块成交11408.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.02%；持仓金额6607.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.06%；成 交持仓比为210.77%。 能源化工板块成交7026.20亿元，较上一交易日变动+43.45%；持仓金额5147.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.12%； 成交持仓比为125.60%。 农产品板块成交2385.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.09%；持仓金额6324.73亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.93%；成 交持仓比为37.18%。 黑色建材板块成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past two weeks, the U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the curve showing differentiation. The short - and medium - term yields have increased, while the ultra - long - term yields have decreased. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January [2]. - Geopolitical and trade frictions have recently intensified. The sharp fluctuations of Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds due to fiscal concerns have become an amplifier for the repricing of global term premiums and are transmitted to the long - end of U.S. Treasuries through cross - market trading mechanisms. The narrative of "selling U.S. assets" has emerged periodically [2]. - In the long run, high debt and refinancing pressure are still the core constraints for U.S. Treasury fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis 3.1.1 U.S. Treasury Interest Rates - As of January 23, the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury has increased by 5bp in two weeks, reaching 4.24%. Compared with two weeks ago, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury has increased by 11bp, and the yield of the 30 - year U.S. Treasury has decreased by 3bp [3]. 3.1.2 U.S. Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance in early January has slightly increased. The issuance of 3 - year bonds is $57.54 billion, 10 - year bonds is $38.92 billion, and 30 - year bonds is $21.97 billion. The U.S. fiscal deficit in December has dropped to $144.75 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly increased to $1.67 trillion [3]. 3.1.3 Derivatives Market - The net short position of U.S. Treasury futures has slightly decreased. As of January 20, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have decreased to 5 million and 60 thousand contracts, indicating that the short - hedging demand in the interest rate market has begun to decline in the short term. The federal funds rate futures market has shifted from a net long to a net short position in the past two weeks, dropping to 98.2 thousand contracts [3]. 3.2 Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 3.2.1 Monetary Policy - The core features of the Fed's December meeting are a turning point in the policy framework and increased internal differences. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive time, in line with expectations, but the dot - plot maintains the guidance of only one interest rate cut next year, indicating that the pace of easing will significantly slow down. It has also announced the launch of monthly reserve management purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bills. Currently, the implied overnight interest rate shows that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in January [4]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Policy - As of January 21, the balance of the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit has increased by $8.76 billion in two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has decreased by $491 million in two weeks, reflecting that the Treasury's bond issuance has absorbed funds, but the overall money market is still in an abundant state [4]. 3.2.3 Economic Situation - As of January 17, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.34 (compared with 1.88 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term strengthening of the economy on a month - on - month basis [4]. 3.3 Key Interpretations - In the past two weeks, trade and geopolitical frictions between the U.S. and Europe have ignited risk sentiment. The sharp decline of Japanese ultra - long - term government bonds due to fiscal concerns and weak auctions has become an amplifier for global interest rate repricing. Through relative value trading, duration hedging, and asset rebalancing mechanisms, the increase in Japanese ultra - long - term interest rates has been quickly transmitted to the long - end of U.S. Treasuries [9]. - Recently, the narrative of "selling U.S. assets" has emerged, putting pressure on the valuation of risk assets. The increase in the long - end interest rate of U.S. Treasuries has led to a decline in the credibility of U.S. dollar assets. Some European pension institutions have reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, intensifying the market impact of this narrative. The increase in U.S. Treasury yields has directly raised the discount rate, suppressing the valuation of stocks and credit assets, while safe - haven assets such as gold have benefited [9]. - In the long run, the root cause of this round of fluctuations lies in the structural problems of the high U.S. debt scale and rising refinancing pressure. Any external shock or liquidity disturbance may be magnified into a concentrated re - evaluation of the term premium, and the volatility center of U.S. Treasuries may rise periodically [10].

期货研究报告|橡胶专题 2026-01-23 全球轮胎进出口回顾 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 刘启展 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 2015 年以来，因美国对我国轮胎企业持续实施"反倾销反补贴"的双反政策，我国直接 对美轮胎出口占比 2015 年以来持续下降，从最高 22.61%下降到最低 2.5%，目前依然持 续处于 5%以下的水平。 我国出口到墨西哥的轮胎逐年上升，墨西哥目前又是美国轮胎的第三大进口国，说明 我国轮胎部分通过墨西哥转口贸易的形式流向了美国市场。从美国的汽车零部件销售 数据来看，依然呈现较高的景气度，说明美国的轮胎市场需求并没有萎缩，部分从中 国进口的轮胎除了从墨西哥转进口进行替代以外，美国也开拓了新的轮胎进口市场， 主要是泰国、越南和印尼，这些国家的天然橡胶等原材料以及劳动力的低廉，使得轮 胎天然具备成本优势，带来了近些年美国进口自泰国的轮胎跃上到国内轮胎进口总量 占比第一的位置。 联系人 杨露露 海外欧美国家的轮胎需求稳步增长，但近几年原料需求在下降。这或是成本以及市场 分工的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 945,100 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,322,900 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,900,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 45,300 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,781,000 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 32,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 91,700 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 188,400 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day, such as the call trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 514,300 contracts, the put trading volume was 422,500 contracts, and the total trading volume was 936,900 contracts [20] Option PCR - The PCR data of various index ETF options are presented, including the turnover PCR and position PCR and their环比 changes. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.76, with a环比 change of +0.06; the position PCR was 0.72, with a环比 change of -0.06 [2][33] Option VIX - The VIX data of various index ETF options are provided, along with their环比 changes. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 15.92%, with a环比 change of +0.39% [3][47]

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-23 供需逐步收紧，关注成本端扰动 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6132元/吨（+139），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6175元/吨 （+5），丙烯华东基差193元/吨（-139），丙烯山东基差43元/吨（-134）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR-日 本石脑油CFR242美元/吨（-10），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR73美元/吨（-2），进口利润-336元/吨（-4），厂内库存38980 吨（-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-145元/吨（+25）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-288 元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润660元/吨（-3）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润782元/吨（+46）； 丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润159元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1174元/吨（+204）；酚 酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-892元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车消息逐步兑现，周内巨正源 ...

PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4849元/吨（+106）；华东基差-279元/吨（-36）;华南基差-249元/吨（-46）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4570元/吨（+70）；华南电石法报价4600元/吨（+60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-35元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润0.5美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-23 宏观情绪好转，基本面延续弱势 市场要闻与重要数据 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 目前烧碱现货报价偏弱。盘面受化工板块整体偏强影响，小幅反弹。烧碱供需偏弱，山东库存延续累库。当前供 应端整体开工高位，液碱价格下行，氯碱企业液氯挺价意愿增强，部分耗氯 ...