新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 现货成交改善情况有限 铅价暂难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-22，LME铅现货升水为-46.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16900 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16875元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至16950元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-22，沪铅主力合约开于17100元/吨，收于17140元/吨，较前一交易日变化25元/吨，全天交易日 成交36011手，较前一交易日变化-10305手，全天交易日持仓65743手，手较前一交易日变化-3608手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到1703 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 22, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors, and their changes compared with the previous trading day, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume was 725.214 billion yuan, a - 15.30% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1658.8 billion yuan, a - 0.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.92%. There are also figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other aspects of each variety in the stock index plate [1][9] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 255.852 billion yuan, a - 26.77% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 845.597 billion yuan, a + 0.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 29.60%. There are figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc., of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][16] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 877.931 billion yuan, a - 6.48% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 793.824 billion yuan, a + 1.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 107.95%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 1227 billion yuan, a - 2.92% change; the holding amount was 641.119 billion yuan, a - 0.96% change; the trading - holding ratio was 223.18%. There are figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc., of each variety in the metal plate [1][23][29] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 489.81 billion yuan, a + 12.94% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 489.675 billion yuan, a + 4.16% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.85%. There are figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc., of the main varieties in the energy - chemical plate [1][32][33] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 265.368 billion yuan, a + 3.35% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 626.67 billion yuan, a + 2.00% change; the trading - holding ratio was 41.14%. There are figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc., of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [1][40][41] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 144.182 billion yuan, a - 8.30% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 321.215 billion yuan, a + 0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.04%. There are figures on the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc., of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][47][49]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Sector - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase, and the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern. The Au2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,090 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern, and the Ag2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 23,800 yuan/kg and 25,000 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The recommended strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the US "all the military access it wants" and threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sold US assets due to Greenland-related tariff threats. Economic data: The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 in the US was 4.4%, higher than the initial 4.3%, the fastest in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Labor market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,097.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,087.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,087.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,104.52 yuan/gram, a 1.56% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,037.00 yuan/kg, closed at 23,339.00 yuan/kg, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 770,373 lots, and the open interest was 307,790 lots. In the night session, it opened at 23,150 yuan/kg and closed at 24,315 yuan/kg, a 4.18% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.241%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.646%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On January 22, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,286 lots, and short positions decreased by 917 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous day was 550,853 lots, a 0.74% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 7,551 lots, and short positions increased by 4,712 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous day was 1,820,246 lots, a -6.56% change from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,077.66 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 22, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 9.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -332.83 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 46.60, a -1.32% change from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 51.24, a 3.81% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,076 kg, a -40.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 417,564 kg, a -1.28% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kg [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The sharp rise of EG on Thursday was mainly due to positive market sentiment. Funds regarded the chemical industry as an undervalued long - allocation sector, leading to a joint increase in stocks and futures. The current price of the EG main contract is at a historical low, combined with the implementation of Saudi device maintenance and the fermentation of the news that the shipment volume from January to February will decrease, resulting in a significant increase [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that on the domestic supply side, the reduction of the syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol production load is at a high level. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of devices in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February, but the near - term arrivals are still concentrated. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in January have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load may decline rapidly, weakening the support of rigid demand [2]. - For trading strategies, the short - term view on a single position is neutral. The current price is in the historical low range, with some buying support, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased, and the pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February is still relatively large, which may improve after March. For inter - period trading, conduct a reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. For inter - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3847 yuan/ton (a change of +158 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +4.28%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3678 yuan/ton (a change of +97 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change rate of +2.71%), and the basis of EG spot in East China was -109 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - based EG is -$83/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG is -966 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Not provided in the given content Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China is 79.5 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it is 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period). The planned arrival volume at the main ports this week is relatively high, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force of the non - ferrous metals sector is slowing down, and its short - term upward trend may ease [1] - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the future path of price recovery depends on supply - side policies [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [3] - In the short term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in commodities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Macro factors: The "232" investigation has been finalized, and Trump announced not to impose new tariffs on key mineral imports. He is also planning a "price floor" mechanism. There are developments in the Greenland issue and the Fed chair candidate situation [1] - Event factors: CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts. The CMX - LME spread of copper has converged [1] Inflation Narrative - Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti - involution". The central bank cut interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and indicated there is room for further cuts. The Ministry of Finance issued 5 policy documents to support various loans. Special treasury bonds for equipment renewal were issued, and large - scale MLF operations were carried out [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have intensified, and only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down inflation [2] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - China's foreign trade is accelerating recovery. In December, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year. China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2 [3] - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing index decreased slightly, and non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with a high unemployment rate [3] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain, but short - term upward momentum may slow [4] - Energy: The US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production, and the IEA predicts a serious supply surplus [4] - Chemicals: The "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties is worth attention [4] - Agricultural products: Weather expectations and short - term pig diseases need to be monitored [4] - Black metals: Domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair possibilities should be focused on [4] - Precious metals: Opportunities to buy gold at low prices should be noted [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - The market rebounded after hitting the bottom, with multiple sectors performing strongly [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued 93.6 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal, driving over 460 billion yuan in total investment [7] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations [7] - The central bank governor said there is room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7] - There are developments in the US regarding the Fed chair candidate and the Greenland issue [7] - The European Parliament indefinitely froze the review of the EU - US trade agreement [7] - The US energy minister called for doubling global oil production [7] - US natural gas prices soared by 50% in two days, and WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, with port inventories declining from a high level in the first week and downstream提货 demand being boosted. Although the styrene production is still at a low level, the production of non - styrene pure benzene downstream has increased, especially the aniline production which has rebounded significantly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in downstream production. Regarding overseas markets, attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the expected reduction of the US tariff on Korean pure benzene, which currently only affects the processing with supplied materials, and whether the general trade will be included later. Meanwhile, the domestic pure benzene production has further decreased. For styrene, due to plant malfunctions and shutdowns, along with the support of export orders in the first quarter, the actual port inventory is still slightly decreasing, and the basis is strong. The downstream production of EB is still acceptable, with the EPS production continuing to rebound beyond the seasonal level, the PS production slightly declining, and the ABS production further decreasing, but the inventory pressure has been further relieved [1][2] Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and styrene, including the pure benzene main contract basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first and third pure benzene contracts, the styrene main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third styrene contracts [14][18] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the naphtha processing fee, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and various spreads and import profits of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [20][23] III. Inventories and Production Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Information on the inventories and production rates of pure benzene and styrene is provided, including the pure benzene inventory at East China ports, the pure benzene production rate, the styrene inventory at East China ports, the styrene production rate, the styrene commercial inventory in East China, and the styrene factory inventory [38][41] IV. Production Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures display the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are the downstream products of styrene [51][53] V. Production Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Information about the production rates and production profits of downstream products of pure benzene such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid is presented [61][68]

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-23 港口库存未进一步下降 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤510元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润290元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差125元/吨（-51），内蒙南线1820元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差125元/吨（-51）；河南2020元/吨（-10），河南基差-40元/吨（-61）；河北2025元/吨（+0），河北基差25元/吨 （-51）。隆众内地工厂库存438420吨（-12530），西北工厂库存261400吨（-10110）；隆众内地工厂待发订单238268 吨（+1500），西北工厂待发订单150800吨（+17300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2238元/吨（+23），太仓基差-22元/吨（-28），CFR中国262美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-25元/ 吨（+7），常州甲醇2280元/吨；广东甲醇2207元/吨（+7），广东基差-53元/吨（-44）。隆众港口总库存1457451吨 （+22201），江苏港口库存712951吨（-52838），浙江港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$40.12/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 22, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 131,273 lots, and the open interest was 118,558 lots. The highest price during the day reached 24,485 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,225 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 118,800 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is bullish with a sideways trend, suggesting a "Long" rating for the urea market [3]. - The cross - period strategy recommends a long position on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low, implying a positive outlook for this spread [3]. - There is no cross - variety strategy recommended [3]. 2. Core View - Urea production and sales have improved. In the first half of the week, snow and rain in some areas affected logistics, cooling the market trading atmosphere and causing spot prices to stabilize or decline. Manufacturers lowered prices to attract orders, and production and sales improved. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reformed enterprises resumed production in January. On the demand side, there was some procurement for winter and spring fertilizers, and off - season storage procurement was ongoing. The resumption of production in the compound fertilizer and melamine industries led to increased demand. Overall, urea inventories in factories and ports decreased slightly. International urea prices rose due to the situation in Iran, but there is no new news on domestic export quotas. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On January 22, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1776 yuan/ton (- 3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3), in Henan was - 36 yuan/ton (+ 3), and in Jiangsu was - 26 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1]. II. Urea Production - As of January 22, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.39% (a change of 0.08%). The sample enterprise total inventory was 94.60 million tons (- 4.01 million tons), and the port sample inventory was 13.40 million tons (unchanged) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the export profit was 871 yuan/ton (+ 12) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - International urea prices have increased due to the situation in Iran, and the export profit has increased by 12 yuan/ton to 871 yuan/ton [1][2]. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of January 22, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 42.96% (+ 2.88%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.65% (+ 1.47%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.88 days (- 0.18) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.01 million tons to 94.60 million tons, and the port sample inventory remained unchanged at 13.40 million tons [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economic data is strong, and the three major US stock indexes have collectively closed higher. Domestically, the monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The personal consumer loan discount policy has officially landed, and attention should be paid to its supporting effect on consumption recovery. Currently, the policy regulation cooling trend continues, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has further declined. Attention can be focused on the entry opportunities of IC [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, the central bank governor said that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The six major state - owned banks have implemented the personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy. After discount, the actual interest rate of consumer loans for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range. Overseas, the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the 11 - month core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [1]. Spot Market - A - share three major indexes fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. In terms of industries, the building materials, national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and communication industries led the gains, while the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the losses. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.7 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.91% to 23436.02 points [2]. Futures Market - In terms of basis, the current - month contracts of IH, IC, and IM were at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the open interest of IF and IH increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Focus on the entry opportunities of IC due to the further decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index under the continuous policy regulation cooling trend [3]. Chart Summary Macroeconomic Charts - Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][6]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 22 and 21, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][6][13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Tables show the trading volume, open interest, basis (futures - spot), and inter - delivery spread of IF, IH, IC, and IM. There are also corresponding charts for each indicator [5][6][15].