Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition between companies Zhipu and MiniMax to become the first publicly listed AI large model company, with both having recently passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's hearing and disclosed their prospectuses [1][19]. - The AI healthcare application "Ant Fortune" from Ant Group has upgraded its features and surpassed 15 million monthly active users, indicating significant growth in the AI medical sector [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the potential for AI applications and computing power demand to remain high, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [1][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector increased by 2.09% over the two weeks from December 12 to December 25, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 first-level industries [10][14]. - For December, the sector declined by 1.78%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.34 percentage points, while the year-to-date performance shows a 16.43% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points [10][14]. Valuation Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 54.02 times, which is in the 87.45th percentile for the past five years and the 74.19th percentile for the past ten years [12][18]. Industry News - Zhipu and MiniMax are competing to be the first AI large model company to go public, focusing on different technological routes and business models [19][26]. - The first batch of L3-level autonomous driving vehicles in China has received approval for market entry, marking a significant step towards commercialization [19]. - Nvidia has signed a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq, indicating ongoing developments in AI hardware [19]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including Saiyi Information and Anbotong, have announced significant projects and plans for overseas listings, reflecting active engagement in the market [22][23][24]. Weekly Perspective - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI large model companies and the implications for future financing and valuation in the sector, alongside the rapid growth of AI healthcare applications [26]. Suggested Investment Targets - The report identifies several companies to watch, including GuoDianYunTong, ShenZhouShuMa, and LangXinXinXi, highlighting their strong positions in financial technology and AI computing [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - As of December 25, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 6.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.2 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 32.8%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 14.9 percentage points, ranking seventh among the 31 industries [2][9]. - All sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index saw gains in the past two weeks, with the chemical fiber sector up 10.2%, plastics up 8.9%, and chemical products up 5.8% [11]. - Among the 406 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 328 saw their stock prices rise, with Yuan Chuang Co., Shen Jian Co., and Dongcai Technology leading with increases of 108.4%, 77.6%, and 47.4% respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown strong performance, with significant gains across various sub-sectors, indicating robust market conditions [9][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include an increase in PTA by 8.32% and a slight rise in urea by 0.35%, while lithium hexafluorophosphate and synthetic ammonia saw declines of -3.43% and -2.46% respectively [16][17]. Key Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory (2025 Edition)," which includes new categories such as bio-based chemicals [21][22]. - A significant oil discovery was made in the Bohai Sea, further solidifying China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [22]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the importance of the coal chemical industry, especially in light of new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, which could present investment opportunities [24]. - The refrigerant market is expected to benefit from price increases due to supply constraints, with companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. showing significant profit growth [24][26].

Investment Ratings - Real Estate: Neutral [2] - Building Materials: Neutral [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including relaxed purchasing conditions for non-local families and adjustments to mortgage rates [27][28] - The real estate sector is currently facing challenges such as sales pressure and investment contraction, but there is an expectation for continued policy support to drive industry transformation and recovery [27][28] - The building materials sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with cement prices showing signs of stabilization and a shift towards capacity upgrades through the replacement of outdated production facilities [4][5][29] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - As of December 25, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 2.41% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.52 percentage points [14] - National real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 78,591 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [25] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize in 2026, with policies focusing on inventory reduction and supply optimization [27][28] Building Materials Market Overview - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 4.87% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.53 percentage points [29] - The national cement price index reached 102.75 points on December 24, 2025, reflecting a nearly 1% recovery from the November low [4] - The report suggests that the building materials sector is positioned for long-term growth, driven by demand for green building materials and technological advancements [7][50] Key Company Recommendations - In the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [27] - For building materials, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taishan Gypsum (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - The demand for grid equipment is expected to increase due to domestic and international resonance, driven by significant investments in smart grids, west-to-east power transmission, and urban-rural grid upgrades [2][4] - The cumulative investment in national grid projects reached 560.4 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [4][38] - The export value of domestic transformers reached 8.08 billion USD from January to November 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 35.19% [4][59] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the electric power equipment industry rose by 2.10% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points [11] - The wind power equipment sector increased by 4.37%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 1.59% [11][19] Valuation and Industry Data - The PE (TTM) ratio for the electric power equipment sector is 33.43 times, with sub-sectors like motors at 59.57 times and photovoltaic equipment at 30.07 times [4][24] - The report highlights that the demand for high-efficiency, energy-saving, and environmentally friendly transformers will dominate the future market [4][46] Industry News - The rapid development of artificial intelligence in the U.S. is driving the construction of large-scale data centers, which require high-performance transformers for stable and efficient power supply [4][56] - The report suggests focusing on leading new energy companies with technological and scale advantages [4][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural opportunities arising from the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products, which are expected to benefit domestic alternatives such as cheese and cream [50]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption, with expectations of continued pressure on sales in the fourth quarter and first quarter of the following year, but a potential rebound in the second quarter due to low base effects [50][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels ahead of the Spring Festival and the operational goals set by various liquor companies for the upcoming year [51]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Guojiao Liquor (000596) [51]. - The report notes that approximately 87% of stocks in the food and beverage sector recorded positive returns during the review period, with notable performers including Anji Food (+27.96%) and Huanlejia (+20.94%) [15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 12 to December 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.66 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 7.63% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1575 RMB/bottle, while Guojiao 1573 decreased to 840 RMB/bottle [21]. - **Condiments Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar decreased, with soybean prices at 4288.90 RMB/ton [24]. - **Beer Sector**: Aluminum prices increased while glass and corrugated paper prices decreased; barley prices remained stable at 2200.00 RMB/ton [29]. - **Dairy Sector**: Fresh milk prices rose slightly to 3.03 RMB/kg [37]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 17.44 RMB/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 22.04% [39]. Important News - The report discusses the preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures for EU dairy imports, which is expected to positively impact domestic dairy producers [44][45]. - It also notes a decline in the production of white liquor and beer in November, with white liquor production down 11.3% year-on-year [43]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to at least 75% of its net profit for the years 2024-2026, alongside a share buyback plan [52]. - Haitian Flavoring plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% of its net profit for the next three years [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.55% from December 12 to December 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.43 percentage points [11][14] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (3.04%), animal health (2.95%), planting (2.28%), fishery (1.56%), breeding (0.81%), and feed (0.29%) [14][15] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.79 times, indicating a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 62.7 percentile since 2006 [18][24] Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 11.45 CNY/kg to 11.59 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal has slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2338.04 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3102 CNY/ton as of December 25, 2025 [22][24] - **Profitability**: As of December 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -130.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -162.8 CNY/head, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous two weeks [27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.59 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price for white feather broilers was 7.82 CNY/kg, with profitability improving to 0.89 CNY/chick [29][33] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pig prices as the seasonal consumption peak approaches, with a focus on the high inventory of breeding sows and the opportunities for leading pig farming companies [42][43] - In poultry farming, the report highlights the recovery in white feather broiler prices and the improvement in profitability, suggesting a positive outlook for leading poultry companies [42][43] - The report also notes growth potential in the domestic pet market and the expected increase in export volumes, recommending attention to promising domestic leaders in this sector [42][43]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry maintains a standard rating of "Neutral" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the opportunities arising from the recent pullback in the robotics sector, driven by government support and accelerated technological advancements [5][66] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to enter a new cycle due to increasing penetration in mining, the commencement of major national projects, and favorable policies [5][66] Market Review - The mechanical equipment industry saw a bi-weekly increase of 3.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.84 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 industries [3][12] - Year-to-date, the industry has risen by 39.45%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 21.46 percentage points, ranking 6th [3][12] - The specialized equipment sub-sector had the highest bi-weekly increase of 6.00%, while the engineering machinery sub-sector experienced a decline of 1.37% [3][18] Valuation - As of December 25, 2025, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the mechanical equipment sector is 32.98 times, with specialized equipment at 34.58 times and general equipment at 46.29 times [4][24] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies: - Huichuan Technology (300124) for its strong market position in servo products [67] - Greentech Harmonic (688017) as a leading company in harmonic reducers benefiting from smart manufacturing [67] - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) due to expected demand growth in excavators [67] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100) for its established market share in hydraulic cylinders [67]

Market Performance - As of December 25, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index has increased by 40.48% year-to-date[3] - The total market turnover reached CNY 6.41 trillion, representing a growth of 115.64% compared to 2024[3] - The financing balance on the North Exchange was CNY 7.951 billion, up 106.54% from the end of 2024[3] Market Capitalization and Growth - By November 2025, the total market capitalization of the North Exchange was CNY 827.155 billion, reflecting a 199.62% increase since its establishment and a 51.40% increase since the beginning of the year[5] - The number of listed companies grew from 81 at inception to 285 by November 30, 2025, more than doubling in four years[5] Investment Environment - Improved market liquidity has driven significant capital inflow, with institutional interest in the North Exchange continuing to rise[4] - The market's focus on innovative small and medium enterprises has attracted attention to high-growth companies, supported by favorable policies and the introduction of new financial products like the North Exchange 50 ETF[5] Future Outlook and Risks - The market is expected to further increase in value with the listing of more specialized and innovative enterprises, alongside ongoing policy support[5] - Potential risks include policy changes, overvaluation concerns, and possible liquidity declines[5]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47% with an increase of 18.67 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% with an increase of 44.99 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4642.54, up by 0.18% with an increase of 8.48 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3239.34, up by 0.30% with an increase of 9.77 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1349.06, down by 0.23% with a decrease of 3.07 points [2] Sector Rankings - The top five sectors by growth include Defense and Military Industry (2.91%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.59%), Machinery Equipment (1.51%), Automotive (1.46%), and Non-Bank Financials (1.08%) [3] - The bottom five sectors by decline include Comprehensive (-1.12%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.77%), Retail (-0.47%), Coal (-0.24%), and Banking (-0.18%) [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a collective rise with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive days of gains [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the importance of maintaining capital market stability [5] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion, an increase of 443 billion from the previous trading day [5] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [5] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [5]

基 金 研 究 （可公开）固收+基金研究分析： 利率低位及波动率抬升共振 固收+基金大时代来临 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 25 日 分析师：李荣 S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 为什么要重视固收+基金？低利率时代，传统稳健理财收益率一再压降， 已不能满足普通投资者的理财需求。从机构投资者的视角来看，票息收 益变薄的同时较低的利差水平导致资本利得波动对纯债基金净值影响较 大，如何完成绝对收益目标，成为低风险偏好或绝对收益投资者存在的 困扰。向多资产要收益成为今后较长时间的大趋势，加入含权资产的组 合便是最为便捷且相对容易的方式。简单的固定比例股债组合就能较好 平衡风险与收益。今年"固收+"策略基金凭借稳健的回撤控制与增强收 益弹性扩容速度远超权益基金。 SAC 执业证书编号： 基金从业资格证书编号： 基 金 专 题 明年固收+策略基金的观点：我们对明年 ...