投资建议：我们看好公司内销活水洗地产品迭代升级解决更多用户痛点、 持续放量。海外持续深化高端零售商合作关系，叠加公司新品上市，有望 补足短板和拉动盈利能力结构性提升。同时，公司积极投入下一代具身服 务机器人，有望拓展全新应用场景。据公司半年报，我们适当上调了毛利率 并下调费率，预计 25-27 年公司归母净利润为 20.6/24.1/27.4 亿元（前值为 17.7/20.8/23.7 亿元），对应动态PE 为 24.9x/21.3x/18.7x，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：新品销售不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧风险、线下渠道修复不 及预期风险、新业务盈利不及预期风险、原材料价格大幅波动风险等。 科沃斯（603486） 证券研究报告 业绩略超预告中枢，扫地机表现优异 事件： 2025 年 8 月 15 日，科沃斯公布 2025 年半年报，业绩略超业绩预增中枢。公 司 25H1 实现收入86.8 亿元，同比+24.4%；归母净利润 9.8 亿元，同比+60.8%； 归母净利率11.3%。公司 25Q2 实现收入 48.2 亿元，同比+37.6%；归母净利润 5 亿元，同比+62.2%；归母净利率 10.5%。 点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Views - The company's revenue from supply chain trade, cross-border multimodal transport, and land port projects is projected to be 65.72%, 27.96%, and 5.64% respectively in 2024, with gross profit contributions of 42.41%, 41.63%, and 15.79% [1] - The company has faced pressure in its Mongolian coal business, with a 8.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports and a 39.6% drop in import prices, but there are signs of potential recovery due to policy changes [2] - The African cross-border logistics network is developing, with the acquisition of BHL expected to enhance operational efficiency and expand into broader international markets [3] - The company is considered undervalued with a projected PE of approximately 12 times for 2025, and an estimated dividend yield of around 5% for 2026 [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,995.26 million in 2023 to 11,533.70 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 44.85% in 2023 and a projected 12.61% in 2027 [10][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,038.79 million in 2023 to 1,204.52 million in 2025, before increasing to 1,753.88 million in 2027 [10][11] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to rise from 1,297.88 million in 2023 to 2,330.67 million in 2027, indicating a strong operational performance [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the stock - bond "seesaw" effect has become more prominent, with the equity market rising and the bond market weakening. The current market is mainly driven by policy expectations, market sentiment, and institutional behavior, and there is a certain deviation from the fundamentals. In the short - term, the appropriate support from the central bank, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and the buying behavior of allocation disks at key points may form the potential boundary for interest rate hikes. In the long - term, asset pricing will return to the fundamental logic. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, the interest rate may be in the ceiling - building stage. The interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [2][27][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - Since July, the stock - bond and commodity - bond "seesaw" effects have been significant. In early August, there was a short - term "stock - bond double - bull" situation, which then returned to the "seesaw" pattern. On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3700 points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.5BP to 1.77% [10]. - The reasons for the more prominent "seesaw" effect recently are: the low and stable capital interest rate restricts the bond - buying power; the domestic economy is stable with progress, and the policy has a certain tolerance for capital - market fluctuations; incremental policies boost market risk appetite, and the bond market is more sensitive to negative news [13]. - Historically, in the short - term, the stock market rise is based on policy expectations, driving asset re - allocation and changes in bond - market institutional behavior. In the long - term, both stock and bond pricing return to the fundamental logic. The two long - lasting "seesaw" periods (2016 - 2018, 2020) were accompanied by fundamental improvements, while the shorter ones (2022 end, 2024 Q3) were more about policy expectations and "strong expectations" of fundamental repair [14][17]. 3.2 Interest Rate "Has a Floor" The market generally believes that the downward space for the bond market is limited. The reasons are: the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamentals is strong, reducing the urgency for monetary policy to strengthen, and the probability of the capital interest rate breaking through downward is low; the buying power of allocation disks has weakened compared to last year. Some rural commercial banks may have floating losses in their OCI accounts, and insurance companies may reduce bond allocation and increase equity investment [3][20]. 3.3 Where is the Temporary "Ceiling" of the Interest Rate? - **"Negative Feedback" Concerns and the Central Bank's Timely Support**: This year, the bond market has experienced several rounds of rising concerns about redemption "negative feedback". Whenever the bond interest rate reaches a temporary high or the selling power of trading disks such as funds increases, the central bank will increase its open - market operations within 1 - 4 days. For example, in mid - March and late July, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations to support the bond market [28]. - **Enhanced Coordination between Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: In the short - term, it is mainly reflected in coordinating with the concentrated issuance of government bonds. For example, on August 8, the central bank carried out a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation to maintain liquidity. In the long - term, considering the balance and sustainability of fiscal interest payments and revenues, the coordination of the two policies is reasonable [36]. - **Support from the Buying Power of Allocation Disks at Key Points**: Although the strength of allocation disks has weakened this year, when the bond market rises to key points, the buying power of allocation disks such as insurance and rural commercial banks will increase, suppressing the adjustment space. It is expected that the reduction of insurance's predetermined interest rate in September may increase the bond - allocation space [43]. - **The Interest Rate May Have Reached a Temporary Ceiling**: On August 18, the bond - market adjustment intensified. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds rose to 1.39%, 1.64%, 1.79%, and 2.11% respectively. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. In the short - term, the entry of allocation disks and the central bank's support will limit the bond - market adjustment. In the long - term, due to the structural repair pressure on the fundamentals, the interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [47].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent notification from multiple government departments aims to promote standardized construction and high-quality development of chemical parks, which may positively impact the industry [1][13] - The basic chemical sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 3.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively strong market performance [4][15] - Key chemical products have experienced price fluctuations, with notable increases in industrial-grade lithium carbonate (+15.6%) and nitric acid (+6.9%), while other products like urea and liquid methionine have seen declines [2][29] Summary by Sections 1. Key News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a notification to enhance the management and recognition of chemical parks, focusing on three main measures: reviewing provincial recognition methods, strict management, and accelerating problem rectification [1][13] 2. Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price decreased by 1.7% to $62.8 per barrel - Key products such as rubber, pure MDI, and ethylene glycol saw price increases of 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.04% respectively, while several others experienced declines [2][26] 3. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's performance was strong, with significant weekly increases in sub-sectors like modified plastics (+11.44%) and fluorochemicals (+6.04%) [4][16] 4. Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report highlights stable demand and global supply dominance in certain sectors, recommending companies like Jinhe Industrial and Wanhu Chemical for investment [5] - It also emphasizes the importance of domestic demand to counteract tariff impacts in sectors such as refrigerants and fertilizers [5] 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in companies like Lite Optoelectronics and Aolai De, focusing on supply replacement gaps in the market [6]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The IEA has cumulatively revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with the latest monthly report projecting demand increments of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to weak performance across major economies and low consumer confidence, particularly in emerging markets [1][11] - On the supply side, the IEA has raised the 2025 crude oil supply increment by 370,000 barrels per day and 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, driven by OPEC's accelerated easing of voluntary production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [2][21] - Refining margins improved in July, reaching the highest level in the Atlantic Basin since Q1 2024, primarily due to an increase in diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads narrowed and Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads fell to six-month lows [3][35] - Oil inventories have increased for five consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 900,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 7,836 million barrels, the highest level in 46 months, although still below the five-year average [4][39] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The IEA has revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day year-to-date, with a forecast of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to general economic performance and low consumer confidence in emerging markets [1][11] - OECD countries, particularly Europe, have shown better-than-expected demand due to monetary easing and fiscal support, while non-OECD countries, especially China and Brazil, have seen a slowdown in demand growth [15][17] - In Q2 2025, demand from OECD Asia is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day, with Japan and South Korea experiencing significant drops [16] Supply Side - The IEA has adjusted the 2025 crude oil supply increment upwards by 370,000 barrels per day, with a further increase of 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, attributed to OPEC's easing of production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production [2][21] - OPEC+ production decreased by 250,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia's production declining significantly, while UAE and Iran have increased their output [26][29] - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Brazil and Guyana, are expected to contribute significantly to supply growth, with Brazil's production reaching historical highs [32][34] Refining - Refining margins in July reached their highest level since Q1 2024, driven by rising diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads have narrowed [3][35] Inventory - Oil inventories have risen for five consecutive months, with a notable increase in June, primarily driven by inventory builds in China and the U.S. [4][39]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of private enterprises in the development of the socialist market economy, highlighting the need for policies that support and protect non-public ownership [10][11][12] - The 2025 National Ecological Day event focused on promoting the concept of "Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets," aiming for a more beautiful ecological environment and sustainable economic growth [12][14] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, indicating a need for stable and flexible monetary policies to support economic growth [25][26] - Recent fiscal policies include the implementation of interest subsidy programs for personal consumption loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing financing costs and stimulating consumer spending [15][23] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-share indices showed significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.58% and the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Component Index both increasing by over 3.5% [24] - The MSCI China A-share Index rose by 2.85%, reflecting positive market sentiment and capital inflows, with net inflows exceeding 35 billion yuan in the second week of August [24] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rebound, while crude oil prices saw a slight decline, and agricultural products remained under pressure [4][27] - The OPEC monthly report predicts a tighter oil market in the coming year, indicating potential supply constraints [4] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - The US dollar index fell to 97.84, down 0.43% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.19 [5][30] - Recent developments include a slight decrease in the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales balance, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market [5][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company is focusing on brand building and channel expansion, increasing marketing and promotional efforts to enhance brand influence and market share [1][3]. - The company is optimizing its product structure, particularly in the health and hygiene segment, with significant growth in sanitary napkin sales and the introduction of new health-oriented products [2][3]. - The company is experiencing a mixed performance in online and offline sales channels, with offline sales showing strong growth while online sales faced temporary challenges due to public sentiment [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 770 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57 million, a decrease of 25.5% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.76 billion, up 15.1%, and a net profit of 188 million, an increase of 4.6% [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 53.1%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.5%, down 2.6 percentage points [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the sanitary napkin category, with revenue of 1.688 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.93% [2]. - The company is prioritizing the development of new products in the health sector, particularly those addressing consumer needs and pain points, with plans to leverage e-commerce for consumer feedback and product testing [2]. Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales in the first half of 2025 reached 1.133 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, while online sales were 592 million, a decrease of 9.44% [3]. - The company is adapting its strategies based on regional market conditions, with significant growth in areas outside its core provinces [3]. Financial Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 370 million, 480 million, and 620 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35X, 27X, and 21X [4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The necessity for "anti-involution" in the cement industry remains, with a competitive landscape characterized by high concentration and state-owned enterprise dominance [1][12] - The cement industry is experiencing a significant oversupply, with a projected capacity utilization rate of only 53% in 2024, indicating a need for supply-side reforms to reduce actual capacity [3][22] - Short-term measures such as peak-shifting production will continue to support the industry, while medium-term strategies will focus on administrative measures to limit overproduction [4][30] Summary by Sections Supply Structure - The cement industry is primarily led by state-owned enterprises, with a concentration ratio (CR10) of 57% and an expected state-owned enterprise capacity share of around 45% in 2024 [1][12] - The top ten cement companies include four state-owned enterprises, which collectively hold about 71% of the capacity, facilitating coordinated efforts to stabilize prices and enhance efficiency [12][1] Industry Profitability - The industry is projected to achieve a total profit of 260 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of approximately 4.1%, although this represents an 86% decline from the peak levels seen in previous years [16][20] - The worst period in early 2024 saw over 55% of companies reporting losses, but a recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, with profits expected to reach 150-160 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [20][16] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total cement supply has peaked at around 1.81 billion tons, but demand continues to decline, leading to a significant oversupply issue [22][3] - The expected demand bottom is estimated to be between 1.2 to 1.5 billion tons, indicating a potential decline of 18% to 34% from 2024 levels [22][3] Review of Previous Supply-Side Reforms - Previous reforms included a ban on new capacity and the promotion of peak-shifting production, which successfully reduced new clinker capacity additions from a billion-ton level to a few million tons [2][26] - The industry's profit recovery from 518 billion yuan in 2016 to a historical high of 1867 billion yuan in 2019 was largely due to these reforms [2][29] Future Anti-Involution Strategies - The future governance of "anti-involution" will involve a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, with a strong emphasis on reducing excess capacity through administrative controls [4][30] - The carbon trading policy expected to be implemented by 2027 will further pressure high-emission capacities to exit the market, promoting a shift towards more efficient production methods [33][35]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI demand in downstream applications. The report highlights the ongoing push for domestic substitution and the positive performance forecasts for various segments in Q2 and Q3 [6][12]. - The introduction of Huawei's UCM technology is anticipated to significantly boost SSD demand by enhancing AI inference efficiency through innovative data management strategies [10][21]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Overview - In July, major chip manufacturers experienced an increase in delivery times, with prices for storage, analog, power, and passive components showing signs of recovery. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in prices and improved order conditions in the distribution channel for Q3 [5][11][22]. Key Technologies and Innovations - The "Storage Computing" paradigm, initiated by Huawei's UCM, is expected to revolutionize the storage industry by optimizing AI inference processes and reducing reliance on HBM. This innovation is projected to enhance the efficiency of enterprise-level SSD products [10][17][21]. Market Segments and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as storage, power, foundry, ASIC, and SoC for their performance elasticity. It also emphasizes the importance of equipment materials and the domestic substitution of computing chips [6][12]. - Specific companies to watch include Jiangbolong, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Huahong Semiconductor among others, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market trends [7].