Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Insights - The beverage sector has shown resilience, particularly in the liquor segment, following media reports that have alleviated concerns over strict alcohol consumption regulations. This has led to a positive market sentiment and a recovery in valuations for liquor companies [3][14] - The beer sector has also performed well, with a 1.91% increase, driven by improved sentiment and a recovery in dining revenues. The overall restaurant income in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [4][15] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the health products, soft drinks, and snack sectors, highlighting their growth potential due to new consumption trends and low base effects [5][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.12% during the week of June 16-20, with specific segments like beer (+1.91%) and liquor (+1.10%) showing positive performance, while snacks (-6.21%) and health products (-4.48%) faced declines [2][22] Liquor Insights - The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, has seen a recovery due to recent government clarifications on alcohol consumption regulations. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index stands at 18X, which is considered low compared to historical averages [3][14] - Key recommendations include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [6][21] Beer Insights - The beer sector's performance is linked to the recovery in dining and consumer spending, with notable increases in companies like Yanjing (+6.6%) and Zhujiang (+4.4%) [4][15] - The report anticipates that ongoing consumption promotion policies will further boost beer sales in the medium to long term [4][15] Consumer Goods Insights - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "market share enhancement" as key investment themes. The report highlights the potential in health products, snacks, and soft drinks due to their growth trajectories [5][16] - Specific companies to watch include Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from upcoming seasonal demand and cost advantages [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for soft drinks and low-alcohol products due to their favorable market conditions and growth potential [6][20] - In the liquor sector, strong alpha companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are highlighted for their ability to capitalize on market concentration benefits [6][21]

Group 1 - The macro environment in the second half of 2025 faces multiple contradictions, including the transition of economic drivers and the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, while technological innovations in AI, robotics, and other fields are enhancing global competitiveness [1] - The marine economy is emerging as a new engine for economic growth, with the marine production value expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing 11.5% to GDP [1] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with high-frequency economic indicators showing mixed results, and the EPMI index significantly below historical levels [2][30] Group 2 - The military trade sector is expected to see strategic development opportunities, with advanced fighter jets like the J-10CE and J-35 becoming key assets for China's military exports [7] - The military procurement model is shifting from single equipment purchases to systematic equipment procurement, enhancing the value of military trade [7] - Investment focus in the military sector includes main platforms, radar technology, unmanned systems, and guided equipment [7] Group 3 - The oil market remains under the influence of the shale oil era, with expectations for a small cycle nearing its end by 2025 [9] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize after a complete inventory cycle, but supply constraints may limit rebound potential [9] - Natural gas prices are anticipated to enter a more relaxed state post-2025 as new capacities come online [9] Group 4 - The wind turbine manufacturing sector is expected to see a profit turnaround in 2024, with the company achieving the largest market share in offshore wind projects [11][14] - The company has established a stable wind farm operation model, contributing to profitability through both self-operated and sold projects [14] - Forecasted net profits for the company are projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong future performance [14] Group 5 - The agricultural sector is facing challenges with fluctuating pig prices and a decrease in profitability for self-breeding operations [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks and strong companies within the pig farming sector [17] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in pig farming, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [17] Group 6 - The construction materials sector is experiencing growth opportunities, particularly in water conservancy and port expansion projects [22] - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to enhance its capabilities in solidifying materials and equipment [22] - Projected net profits for the company are expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified in the report [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the YU7 model is expected to be a significant product for Xiaomi, showcasing a shift towards practicality while maintaining a luxurious brand image. The YU7 is positioned as a mid-to-large pure electric SUV, featuring advanced technology such as laser radar, 800V fast charging, and Nvidia Thor chips [1][2]. - The YU7 is anticipated to leverage Xiaomi's ecosystem, potentially enhancing overall revenue growth through better integration with AIOT products. The initial user interest has exceeded expectations, with a significant portion of new users showing interest in the brand [2][3]. - The report forecasts a strong sales performance for the YU7, predicting that it may outperform market expectations due to its competitive pricing strategy and high-value features [3]. Summary by Sections Product Overview - The YU7 is Xiaomi's second vehicle, designed to complement the SU7, with a focus on a more practical approach while retaining a sporty design. It offers options for single and dual motor configurations, with a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds [1]. Market Positioning - The YU7's pricing strategy is centered around providing value for money, with luxury features included in the offering. The report notes that the initial user engagement for the YU7 has been significantly higher than that of the SU7, indicating a broader appeal [2][3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Xiaomi's total revenue could reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with electric vehicles and innovative business segments contributing 96.4 billion CNY and 250.6 billion CNY respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY for the same years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories internally while also pursuing external growth through acquisitions. The performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by fluctuations in the operations of its associate company, Weimeizi, and underperformance from its subsidiary, Shanenkang, leading to impairment provisions for long-term equity investments and goodwill [1][5]. - The company has a significant production capacity for toothbrushes and wet wipes, and it is actively expanding its toothpaste category, with production capacity increasing from 60 million to 120 million units [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10 million yuan, a decline of 34.5% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year, but a net loss of 80 million yuan, a significant decline of 183.6% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for oral care and wet wipes being 22.6% and 23.5%, respectively [2][11]. Product Segment Summary - In 2024, toothbrush revenue was 500 million yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 420 million units, a rise of 14.7%. The average price per unit decreased by 5.5% to 1.19 yuan [1]. - Wet wipes generated revenue of 390 million yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year, with sales volume of 5.28 billion pieces, an increase of 19.0%, while the average price per unit decreased by 4.0% to 0.07 yuan [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its support for its subsidiary, Shanenkang, focusing on developing major customer relationships and implementing performance evaluation mechanisms to improve its financial performance [4]. - The company is also prioritizing the development of its own brand products alongside its ODM business, aiming for scale growth in toothpaste, toothbrushes, and orthodontic care products while ensuring reasonable profit margins [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].

临近年中把握前置博弈中报窗口，持续推荐下游高景 气/西部结构景气品种 行情回顾 本周沪深 300 跌 0.45%，建材(中信)跌 1.68%，玻纤、玻璃板块取得正收 益。个股中 ，凯盛新 能（+18.0% ），震 安科技 （+17.7% ），石英 股份 （+14.9%），金刚光伏（+11.4%），中材科技（+10.8%），涨幅居前。上周我 们重点推荐组合的表现：西部水泥（-3.7%）、华新水泥（A+H）（-0.7%）、 中国联塑（+1.52%）、中材科技（+10.8%）、青松建化（-2.4%）、高争民爆 （+0.4%）、三棵树（+0.8%）。 临近年中把握前置博弈中报窗口，持续推荐下游高景气/西部结构景气品 种 据 Wind，0614-0620 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 194.41 万平 米，同比-12.82%。6 月 13 号在北京召开了国务院常务会议，会议强调要 着眼于长远发展，构建好基础制度的根基，"稳中求进、先立后破"，扎实 有力地推进好房子的建设。6 月 16 号，国家统计局发布了 70 个大中城市 商品住宅销售价格变动情况。数据显示，绝大多数城市的住宅价格持续收 紧，尤其是与去年同期 ...

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Group 1 - The report highlights that ultra-long credit bonds are leading the market, with credit bond yields following the downward trend of interest rate bonds, although the overall market is still experiencing a compression of credit spreads [1][9] - Short-term credit bonds around 1 year are closely following interest rate trends, with limited room for further compression due to previously extreme spread reductions [1][9] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been particularly strong, transitioning from mid-high grade industrial bonds to urban investment bonds, indicating a robust market sentiment [1][9] Group 2 - As of June 22, 2025, the issuance scale of ultra-long credit bonds has reached 587.8 billion yuan this year, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in supply [2][16] - The report notes that the liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds has improved, driven by increased supply and a more diverse participation from various market entities [4][35] - The report emphasizes that for institutions with stable liabilities, ultra-long credit bonds still offer attractive coupon advantages, making them more appealing than interest rate products [5][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of ultra-long credit bonds during different market conditions, noting that they tend to outperform shorter-term bonds during periods of declining yields due to thicker coupons and longer durations [24][25] - Conversely, during market downturns, ultra-long credit bonds can experience greater capital losses due to their lower liquidity and duration effects, which can lead to negative returns if coupon income is insufficient to cover losses [26][29] - The report indicates that as of June 20, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds with maturities over 5 years is approximately 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the total credit bond market [20][22]

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]