行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that ultra-long credit bonds are leading the market, with credit bond yields following the downward trend of interest rate bonds, although the overall market is still experiencing a compression of credit spreads [1][9] - Short-term credit bonds around 1 year are closely following interest rate trends, with limited room for further compression due to previously extreme spread reductions [1][9] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been particularly strong, transitioning from mid-high grade industrial bonds to urban investment bonds, indicating a robust market sentiment [1][9] Group 2 - As of June 22, 2025, the issuance scale of ultra-long credit bonds has reached 587.8 billion yuan this year, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in supply [2][16] - The report notes that the liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds has improved, driven by increased supply and a more diverse participation from various market entities [4][35] - The report emphasizes that for institutions with stable liabilities, ultra-long credit bonds still offer attractive coupon advantages, making them more appealing than interest rate products [5][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of ultra-long credit bonds during different market conditions, noting that they tend to outperform shorter-term bonds during periods of declining yields due to thicker coupons and longer durations [24][25] - Conversely, during market downturns, ultra-long credit bonds can experience greater capital losses due to their lower liquidity and duration effects, which can lead to negative returns if coupon income is insufficient to cover losses [26][29] - The report indicates that as of June 20, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds with maturities over 5 years is approximately 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the total credit bond market [20][22]

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector is experiencing continuous compression of profit margins, with a focus on the expected differences in the pig market. As of June 21, the average price of pigs in China was 14.37 CNY/kg, down 0.28% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 92 CNY/head, significantly narrowed from 160 CNY/head in early May. The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.28 kg, showing a slight decrease, while the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 4.74% [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The pig price remains low, and the price of piglets continues to decline. The average price of 7 kg piglets is 443 CNY/head, and 50 kg sows are priced at 1619 CNY/head, with piglet prices down over 200 CNY from their peak. The supply side shows a clear trend of reduced weight, but absolute weights remain historically high [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the low valuation and expected differences in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies. The average market value per head for major players like Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture is between 2000-3000 CNY, while others are below 2000 CNY, indicating a relative historical low in valuations [2][16]. Pet Sector - JD.com reported significant growth in the pet sector during the 618 shopping festival, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners. Domestic brands are gaining a strong foothold, with 7 out of the top 10 pet food brands being Chinese [3][17]. - Pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 139,100 tons exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, amounting to 4.175 billion CNY [3][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates. The average price of broiler chicks is 2 CNY/bird, down from the previous week [4][19]. - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a critical variable. The current breeding stock is at a low level, and the demand for yellow chicken is expected to improve in the second half of the year [5][21]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with the average price of egg-laying chicks at 4.0 CNY/bird, down 2% from the previous week [6][22]. Planting Sector - The focus on food security emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in grain production, with a significant contribution from yield improvements. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that yield increases contributed over 80% to grain production growth in 2024 [7][23]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology in enhancing agricultural competitiveness, with recommendations for leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [8][24]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see improved market share and performance. The prices of various fish species are showing mixed trends, with overall fish prices expected to rise due to policy support [9][25]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in the pet health market. Key recommendations include companies like Keqian Biological and Zhongmu Co [10][26].

Group 1 - The bond market has maintained a strong trend, with short-term bonds performing well and the ultra-long bond market, represented by 20-year and 50-year government bonds, continuing to thrive. As of June 20, the yields on 1Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, and 50Y government bonds have decreased by 4.5BP, 0.4BP, 5.5BP, 1.2BP, and 4.7BP respectively, reaching 1.36%, 1.64%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% [1][6][22]. Group 2 - The central bank has conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation to address multiple liquidity pressures, including a peak maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in June. The central bank's actions aim to smooth out seasonal funding fluctuations and alleviate banks' interest margin pressures, indicating a comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity [2][19][20]. Group 3 - The main buyers of ultra-long bonds are funds, which have significantly increased their holdings of 20-year and 50-year government bonds, net buying 108 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan respectively from June 16 to June 20. Other product categories, including social security and pension funds, have also shown a preference for these long-duration bonds [3][25][23]. Group 4 - The driving factors behind the ultra-long bond market's performance include strengthened expectations of policy easing, a favorable basic economic environment, and the higher coupon yields and capital gains associated with 20-year and 50-year government bonds. The yield curve shows that the 20-year bond remains a key point of interest, with its yield at 1.87% as of June 20 [28][30][31]. Group 5 - The overall environment for the bond market remains relatively favorable, supported by a mild economic recovery and the central bank's liquidity support. However, there are concerns about potential adjustments and liquidity issues as the market evolves. The short-term segment may see opportunities for trading and value in the context of stable deposit prices [35][36].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 地缘风险持续，影响几何？ 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250622 海外市场复盘（6.16-6.20） 本周欧美主要股指涨跌不一，波动率上升。本周股市主线围绕中东局势、 央行动态展开。周一，消息称伊朗愿重启谈判，美英达成贸易协议，主要 股指普涨。但周二中东局势再度紧张，欧美股市下跌。周三美联储主席鲍 威尔发言偏鹰，发言后美股由涨转跌。周五中东局势持续，抑制股市表现。 美元上涨、美债收益率下行。中东局势持续紧张，鲍威尔暗示通胀仍将面 临关税带来的上行压力，美元指数本周上涨 0.6%。美国公布经济数据疲软， 5 月零售销售环比-0.9%，低于预期值-0.7%，下一任美联储主席热门人选沃 勒放鸽、表示最早 7 月降息，美债收益率继续下行。 商品方面，油价收涨，黄金收跌。中东局势反复，油价本周震荡，连续第 三周收涨，但涨势明显放缓。本周黄金价格下跌，美元反弹压制黄金价格、 伊朗释放缓和信号、以及前期大涨后部分投资者选择获利了结。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储维持利率不变，但鲍威尔表态偏鹰。本次 FOMC 经济预测中， 美联储下调 GDP 预测、上调失业率预测、上调通胀预测。点阵图比 ...

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to identify and recommend sectors or themes with strong momentum, focusing on technology-related sectors and specific themes like military and Hong Kong automotive industries[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the TWO BETA model. However, it is used to track and recommend sectors based on their relative performance and momentum trends[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model continues to recommend technology sectors, military themes, and Hong Kong automotive themes, indicating its focus on identifying upward trends in these areas[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors undergoing a turnaround or showing resilience in current market conditions[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the industry allocation model. It is used to identify sectors like innovative drugs in Hong Kong, new consumption themes, and financial sectors in Hong Kong[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights sectors with potential for recovery or sustained growth, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and financial sectors, which are deemed to have intact trends[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Timing System **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine the market's overall environment and timing signals[1][9][13]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index. 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $ - Short-term MA (20-day): 5130 - Long-term MA (120-day): 5075 - Distance: 1.09% 3. Interpret the signal: If the absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[1][9][13]. **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, suggesting a lack of strong directional trends[1][9][13]. Backtesting Results of Models - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Timing System**: - Short-term MA: 5130 - Long-term MA: 5075 - Distance: 1.09% - Absolute distance remains below 3%, confirming the market's consolidation phase[1][9][13]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: None explicitly mentioned in the report. Backtesting Results of Factors - **Factors**: No specific factors or their backtesting results are provided in the report.

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.51 CNY, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in wind turbine manufacturing and wind farm operations, with a dual-driven business model. It has maintained the largest market share in China for 14 consecutive years and ranks first globally for three years [1][13]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturing is expected to improve, with a recovery in margins anticipated in 2024 and a potential turnaround to profitability in 2025 [2][43]. - The company has a strong position in both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in wind turbine exports and a leading position in offshore wind projects [2][32][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 2001 and has become a leading provider of wind power solutions, with three main business segments: wind turbine manufacturing, wind power services, and wind farm investment and development [1][13]. 2. Wind Turbine Manufacturing - The domestic wind turbine market is stabilizing, with prices recovering from historical lows. The average bidding price for wind turbines has increased from around 1400 CNY/kW in August 2024 to 1590 CNY/kW by March 2025 [34][35]. - The company is expected to see a significant increase in export capacity, with a projected 2.5 GW of new shipments in 2024, marking a 45% year-on-year growth [2][32]. 3. Wind Farm Operations - The company has developed a stable "rolling development" model for wind farms, with a self-operated capacity of 8.0 GW and an additional 4.1 GW under construction as of March 2025 [3]. - The profitability of wind farm operations is expected to remain strong, supported by favorable market conditions and stable pricing mechanisms [3]. 4. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, projecting 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, representing an 80.5% year-on-year growth [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 56.7 billion CNY in 2024 to 79.2 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 39.73% increase [4]. 5. Market Dynamics - The global wind power market is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in offshore wind projects in Europe and onshore projects in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [29]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards value competition rather than price wars, with major players focusing on technology and service quality [34].