Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][82]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the significant progress of Chinese innovative drugs, highlighting their emergence as a global force in the pharmaceutical industry, supported by a solid industrial foundation, policy backing, and capital support [4][5]. - The gap between Chinese and global innovative drugs has narrowed significantly, with the time to market for first-in-class drugs reduced from over 10 years to within 1-5 years [4]. - The report indicates that Chinese companies now account for over 30% of global clinical trials, with more than 60% of popular targets being pursued by Chinese firms [35][38]. Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapies - The development of innovative drugs in China is underpinned by a robust industrial base, supportive policies, and substantial capital investment, leading to rapid growth in the ADC market and next-generation therapies [4][12]. - Key drugs such as Keytruda and Semaglutide are projected to generate sales of $29.482 billion and $29.296 billion respectively in 2024, showcasing the potential of innovative therapies [4][12]. Achievements - Chinese innovative drugs have made significant strides, with the clinical trial participation rate increasing from 9.7% in 2016 to 28.2% in 2023 [35]. - The report notes that the number of Chinese companies involved in clinical trials for oncology drugs has risen from 15% in 2016 to 35.5% in 2023, indicating a strong focus on cancer therapies [35]. Leading Trends - The rapid growth of License Out transactions has provided substantial cash flow for innovative drug companies, facilitating their expansion into international markets [5][66]. - The report highlights that the Chinese market is still dominated by foreign patented drugs, but there is significant potential for domestic innovative drugs to capture market share, especially as many foreign drugs face expiration of patents [70][72].

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory, driven by AI and domestic substitution efforts [4][15] - The storage sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of price increases for DDR4 contracts by 30-40% in Q3 [3][16] - The demand for storage capacity is rapidly increasing due to AI servers, PCs, and mobile devices, leading to a rise in high-value product penetration [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - In May, global chip delivery times remained stable, with a slight increase in spot market delivery times and rising storage prices [2][13] - Major chip suppliers showed stable delivery times, with some experiencing slight increases in both delivery times and prices [2][13] 2. Storage Sector - The storage sector is expected to see continued price increases, with significant demand for DDR4 and DDR5, leading to a saturated production capacity [3][18] - The anticipated price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash in Q3 and Q4 are driven by supply-side reforms and strong demand from AI applications [3][14][17] 3. Industry Growth Projections - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow, with a forecasted sales figure of approximately $626.87 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [30][31] - The Chinese semiconductor market is expected to exceed $170 billion in sales in 2024, with a significant contribution from the Yangtze River Delta region [30][31] 4. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies in the semiconductor storage sector include Jiangbolong, Shannon Semiconductor, and Zhaoyi Innovation, among others [5] - In the IDM foundry and packaging sector, companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC are highlighted for their growth potential [5] 5. Equipment and Materials - The equipment and materials sector is seeing stable growth, with leading manufacturers showing strong performance in Q1 2025 [4][15] - The ongoing domestic substitution efforts are reshaping the supply chain landscape, enhancing the competitiveness of local firms [4][15]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 伊以冲突，对能源化工品影响几何？ 伊朗石油&炼厂 我们估算 360 万桶产量=150 万桶原油出口（主要到中国）+80 万桶成品油 出口+130 本土消费。炼厂加工量约 210 万桶/天，新闻中起火的有油库和炼 厂，其中德黑兰炼厂能力 22.5 万桶/天。 首先，针对油田目标袭击，不如针对油库炼厂来的方便，类似俄乌也是对成 品油出口影响大于原油。其次，如果伊朗原油出口受影响，中国地炼油源或 将受损失。 天然气、LPG 和化工品 2022 年伊朗发电 85%靠天然气，天然气主要是南帕斯生产。伊朗的 LPG 基 本来自南帕斯，且 LPG 出口主要到中国，中国进口 LPG 有 27%来自伊朗。 中国进口伊朗甲醇、乙二醇分别占总进口量的 59%和 4%。 对以色列来说，袭击南帕斯气田效率非常高，对伊朗电力系统和民众的影响 力大。那么首先 LPG 潜在影响最大；其次气头的甲醇和乙二醇也有一定潜 在影响；第三对伊拉克电力系统也有潜在影响。 霍尔木兹海峡 2023 年霍尔木兹海峡的石油通过量 2090 万桶/天，占全球石油液体消费量 20%左右。沙特和阿联酋拥有少量绕过霍 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.303 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 556.73 million yuan, down 20.9% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 7.2% year-on-year to 1.301 billion yuan and a significant net profit increase of 87.3% year-on-year to 242 million yuan [1][4] - The average prices of key products such as Acesulfame, Sucralose, Methyl Maltose, and Ethyl Maltose in 2024 were 38,500 yuan/ton, 154,200 yuan/ton, 88,900 yuan/ton, and 72,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting a decline compared to 2023. The price of Sucralose saw a significant rebound, increasing over 100% from its low point [2][3] - The company’s export volume of Sucralose in 2024 reached 18,700 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating strong demand in the sugar substitute market [3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with estimates of 6.631 billion yuan in 2025, 8.074 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.349 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 25.03%, 21.76%, and 3.41% respectively [5][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound to 1.171 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 110.40%, and further increase to 2.118 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.365 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.98 yuan in 2024 to 2.06 yuan in 2025, and further to 3.73 yuan in 2026 [5][10] Project Developments - The company completed the production of its second phase project in Dingyuan in 2024 and successfully built an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project. Additionally, it is expanding into sodium hydroxide and potassium hydroxide products [4] - A new project for producing 10,000 tons of next-generation lithium battery electrolyte precursors has received all necessary approvals, indicating a strategic move towards high-end chemical materials [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (initial rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for an additional three months exceeds market expectations, which anticipated a two-month extension [2][3] - The DRC dominates global cobalt supply, with an estimated production of 200,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of the total supply [3] - The current cobalt price is expected to enter a new upward cycle, potentially reaching levels between 280,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton due to inventory depletion and stricter regulatory measures in the DRC [3] Summary by Sections - **Cobalt Export Ban**: The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for three months due to sufficient market inventory, with the new expiration date set for September 22, 2025 [1] - **Market Expectations**: The market had anticipated a two-month extension based on the lack of clear guidance from the DRC government and the challenges in implementing a new export quota system [2] - **Future Inventory and Pricing**: The extension of the ban will test inventory levels, with major cobalt smelters likely facing production cuts in July and August, leading to a potential tightening of inventory and an increase in cobalt prices [3] - **Investment Recommendations**: Short-term focus on resource companies unaffected by the DRC export ban, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; long-term focus on companies with significant resource reserves and production capacity, like Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies such as Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [4]

Domestic Policy News - The second China-Central Asia Summit was held, emphasizing the "China-Central Asia spirit" and the construction of a community with a shared future [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of innovation-driven development during his visit to Jiangsu, aiming to expand effective demand and stimulate high-quality economic growth [12][13] Overseas Policy News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [14][20] - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report indicated a stable economic expansion but acknowledged persistent inflation risks, particularly from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices falling by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations [22][23] - The central bank announced eight significant financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and high-quality development [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's actions led to a loosening of the funding environment, with the DR007 rate dropping below 1.5% [3][22] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and oil prices experiencing slight volatility [3][4] Forex Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly, closing at 98.76, influenced by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a defensive approach in equity markets, emphasizing the importance of gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities [4][20]

风险提示：海外流动性快速收紧；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|海外与外资周观察——港股能否重拾上涨动力？》 1、4 月初以来，恒生指数已实现较为可观的涨幅，但板块热度出现明显 分化。港股银行拥挤度从 3 月开始逐渐提升但斜率较缓，仍低于去年平均 水平，可以认为情绪尚未过热。恒生科技与港股创新药的拥挤度指标出现 分化，前者回落至去年平均水平，后者不断刷新近年高位。新消费板块中， 以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为代表的成分股也出现拥挤度中枢明显 上移的情形。2、港股需要保持较高的涨幅集中度，指数才有可能实现高 收益。因此需要观察资金是否回流阿里、小米、腾讯等权重股上，但从港 股通持股量看，南向资金更多表现为逆向投资（"涨卖跌买"），当前左侧 押注意愿并不强烈。3、投资意见方面，当前板块轮动的难度正在加大， 同时海外地缘冲突扰动、内部流动性收紧的压力也在上升，建议对港股后 续走势保持谨慎，等待资金面与情绪面出现一定缓解后择机介入，方向上 坚持杠铃配置，一方面港股银行板块仍然存在溢价压缩空间，另一 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 17.3% year-to-date as of June 20, with major contributors like Alibaba, Xiaomi, and HSBC each contributing over 2% to the gains, while the top ten stocks contributed a total of 15.5%, indicating a structural characteristic of the index this year [2][9][11] - The proportion of Hang Seng Index constituents above the 100-day moving average has been declining since September 2024, highlighting the importance of individual stock and sector research over a broad market focus [2][9][11] - Historical data suggests that when the proportion of constituent stocks outperforming the index is lower, the relative performance of the index may improve, necessitating a continued focus on heavyweight stocks to maintain current return levels [11][12] Group 2 - Since April, the Hang Seng Index has seen significant gains, but there is a noticeable divergence in sector performance, with the banking sector's crowding indicator gradually increasing since March, yet remaining below last year's average [3][15] - The technology sector's crowding indicator has returned to last year's average, while the innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to reach new highs, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][15] - The financial sector is experiencing an upward revision in earnings expectations, contrasting with the technology sector, which has seen a decline in earnings momentum, suggesting a higher probability of success for financial stocks [19][21] Group 3 - Recent inflows of southbound capital and an increase in IPO and refinancing activities in Hong Kong have raised demand for the Hong Kong dollar, pushing its exchange rate towards the strong-side guarantee [4][31] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions to manage liquidity have led to a decrease in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), which has implications for the stock market, particularly when the currency approaches the weak-side guarantee [30][31] - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market is cautious, with recommendations to wait for a stabilization in liquidity and sentiment before making investment decisions, while maintaining a barbell strategy focusing on both banking and AI-related internet stocks [4][37]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current focus on dexterous hands is due to their flexibility in operation, which is crucial for the generalization capabilities of robots. The industry is witnessing significant advancements, particularly led by Tesla, with various manufacturers following suit in dexterous hand development [2][12] - The value of dexterous hands is substantial, accounting for approximately 17% of the total cost of Tesla's Optimus second generation, indicating a vast market potential. The willingness of customers to pay is driven by the ability to solve practical problems, suggesting a premium space for functional inflation [2][20] - The market for dexterous hands is characterized by widespread participation across various segments, including the main body, dexterous hands, and components, which is expected to accelerate technological development and reduce component costs [2][21] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Dexterous hands are essential for the generalization capabilities of robots, with a focus on their perception and execution abilities. The industry is transitioning towards dexterous hand capabilities as a key area of development [5][11] - The current stage of development emphasizes the importance of dexterous hands in executing generalized tasks and using human-designed tools, with a requirement of at least 17 degrees of freedom to approach human hand functionality [11][12] Market Participation - The dexterous hand market includes a variety of participants, such as manufacturers of the main body, dexterous hand companies, and component suppliers. This diversity is expected to foster rapid technological advancements and cost reductions [21][24] - Key players in the dexterous hand segment include companies like Reiser Intelligent, Yongchuang Intelligent, and Jiangsu Leili, among others, focusing on different aspects of the dexterous hand technology [2][21] Cost Structure - The cost structure of dexterous hands is influenced by the complexity of technology and the number of components involved. The estimated BOM cost for a dexterous hand with 17 drives and 5 sensors is approximately 51,800 yuan, with the drive and transmission components accounting for 64% of the total cost [30][26] - The high value of dexterous hands is reflected in their significant cost contribution to the overall robot assembly, with potential market value reaching 170 billion yuan if production scales up [20][21] Technological Development - The current focus is on enhancing the hardware capabilities of dexterous hands, with a competitive landscape that includes both rigid and flexible transmission solutions. The industry is in a phase of "stacking materials" to improve foundational hardware capabilities [36][42] - The development trajectory of dexterous hands is expected to follow a path similar to that of autonomous driving technology, transitioning from hardware enhancement to algorithmic improvements and cost reductions over time [42][45]