医疗美容 可复美延续高增长，可丽金提速，胶原龙头潜力可期 巨子生物（02367.HK） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 3,526 | 5,539 | 7,056 | 8,893 | 11,021 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 48% | 57% | 27% | 26% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,452 | 2,062 | 2,532 | 3,102 | 3,819 | | Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 109% | 42% | 23% | 23% | 23% | | | | 每股收益（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent tariff concerns have led to significant fluctuations in base metal prices, with a general decline observed. However, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited further downside for prices, indicating potential investment opportunities, particularly in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market has seen an overall decline, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. The non-ferrous metal index fell by 2.86%, lagging behind the index by 2.59 percentage points [16][21]. - Most base metal prices have experienced significant declines, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc dropping by 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.5%, and 5% respectively [23][24]. Macroeconomic Factors - The global manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 50.3, indicating a slight decline of 0.3 from the previous month, while the Chinese manufacturing PMI stood at 50.5, showing resilience [51][32]. - The European economy shows signs of recovery, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rising to 48.6 and the services PMI at 51 [45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry has seen a slight increase in operating capacity, with production rising to 4,380.50 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The current production is 84.01 tons, reflecting a 0.02% increase [6][52]. - The report indicates that aluminum inventories are decreasing, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory at 850,000 tons, down by 53,000 tons [6][52]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The industry maintains a profit margin above 3,000 yuan per ton, with the current cash cost at 17,272 yuan per ton and total cost at 18,482 yuan per ton. The immediate profit per ton is reported at 3,417 yuan [6][52]. - The report also notes that the price of alumina has decreased, with expectations of continued downward pressure on prices due to a supply surplus [7][8]. Specific Metal Insights - For copper, the report highlights ongoing conflicts in mining and smelting, leading to a shift towards inventory accumulation globally. Domestic copper inventory stands at 409,200 tons, reflecting a decrease of 4.26% year-on-year [10][9]. - Zinc processing fees have met expectations, with domestic inventories significantly reduced, indicating a tightening supply situation [11]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests a cautious optimism for the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential investment opportunities arising from the current market dynamics and supply-demand balance [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 237.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85.4% [5][7] - The alumina business is the main contributor to profitability, with a gross profit of 19.5 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 52% of total profits, driven by both volume and price increases [5][7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its industrial layout and has reduced impairment losses significantly, indicating proactive management strategies [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, net profit of 6.717 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, net profit of 12.4 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 229.16 billion yuan, net profit of 16.53 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 246.14 billion yuan, net profit of 23.45 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 260.66 billion yuan, net profit of 26.31 billion yuan [3][5][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.39 yuan - 2024A: 0.72 yuan - 2025E: 0.96 yuan - 2026E: 1.37 yuan - 2027E: 1.53 yuan [3][5][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has enhanced its resource security, achieving a bauxite self-sufficiency rate of 66% and increasing its bauxite resource reserves by 73.55 million tons in 2024 [5][7] - The company is committed to shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of 0.217 yuan per share for 2024, with a total dividend payout of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% payout ratio [5][7] - The supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, with domestic production nearing capacity limits, leading to a projected price range of 23,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3][15] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 92.746 billion (up 8%) and net profit attributable to the parent company at 3.348 billion (up 18%) [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 22.2 billion (up 7%) and a net profit of 560 million (up 35%) [5] - The report highlights that external sales have been a significant driver of revenue growth, despite a slight slowdown in growth rates [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.746 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 3.348 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [3] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 22.2 billion, with a net profit of 560 million, marking a 35% increase [5] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates that all business segments contributed to profit growth, with external sales being a key factor [8] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 16.8% in 2024, driven by structural improvements and efficiency gains [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong external sales and recover internal sales, with projected net profits of 3.8 billion in 2025 and 4.2 billion in 2026 [11] - The report anticipates a continued focus on improving profit margins in the white goods segment, with a projected profit margin of 2-3% in 2024 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 28.49 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.34%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 3.07% to 3.20 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its core business through road asset upgrades and acquisitions, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [4]. - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend payout of 0.42 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 4.0% based on the current stock price [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 28.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 3.20 billion yuan, down 3% from the previous year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be 0.66 yuan, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [2][5]. Revenue Sources - The company’s toll revenue for 2024 is expected to be 9.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.95% year-on-year, primarily due to traffic diversion from new road openings [4]. - The core toll revenue from the Jiqing Expressway is projected to be 3.17 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year, while the revenue from the Jingtai Expressway is expected to grow slightly by 0.10% [4]. Investment and Expansion - The company has invested 2.59 billion yuan in road asset upgrades in 2024, with significant progress reported in various construction projects [4]. - The company has also acquired a 20% stake in Luzhou Southeast Company, achieving full control, and has won a bid for the remaining concession rights of the He Bao Expressway [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.8X, 14.0X, and 13.2X, respectively, based on the current stock price of 10.41 yuan [2][4]. - The report anticipates a stable return on equity (ROE) of 6% over the forecast period [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][22]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [5][15]. - The report highlights that the company's specialty gas business faced pressure due to price declines and goodwill impairment, while the bulk gas business showed steady growth [6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading private industrial gas supplier in China, focusing on both bulk and specialty gases to drive growth [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 36% compared to the previous year [5][15]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 670 million yuan, which is a 3.1% increase year-on-year and a 6.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [11]. Business Segments - The specialty gas segment's gross margin was 27.7% in 2024, down 12.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines in key products like ultra-pure ammonia and helium [6]. - The bulk gas segment achieved a sales volume of 956,000 tons in 2024, up 54.3% year-on-year, with revenue of 970 million yuan, a 14.2% increase [6]. - The company is expanding its market presence through acquisitions and new retail points, particularly in the East China region [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain strong growth in its bulk gas business, supported by a robust order book and ongoing projects [7]. - The specialty gas business is anticipated to recover as prices stabilize, with a focus on increasing sales volume and product variety [6][7]. - The company aims to enhance its cash flow stability through the development of on-site gas production and electronic bulk gas projects, which have significant market potential [7].

医药生物 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 05 日 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 药品豁免"对等关税" ，医药板块优势明显 1、《创新药引领行情，关注 Q1 业绩 +政策催化》2025-04-01 2、《医药生物行业 2025Q1 业绩前 瞻》2025-03-30 3、《关注修复机会，把握创新成长 主线》2025-03-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书 ...

中泰证券研究所专业｜领先｜深度｜诚信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 中美共振重点方向，可控核聚变产业化进程加速 2 0 2 5 . 4 . 5 分析师：王可 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 Email：wangke03@zts.com.cn 核心观点 托卡马克是目前主流聚变路线，聚变-裂变混合堆有望率先落地。 2 聚变能源燃料丰富、能量密度极大、安全环保，是人类社会未来的理想能源。世界范围内能源安全需求凸显， 电力需求持续攀升。为了解决这些问题，核能受到广泛关注。核能是一种高效且清洁的能源，利用方式主要分 为裂变和聚变，相对于核裂变，可控核聚变具有燃料来源更丰富、能量密度更大、安全性更高等显著优势。 近期国内外诸多进展催化产业发展，产业临界点或将到来。2025年1月20日"EAST"实现1亿摄氏度超千秒稳 定运行，2月中国核电和浙能电力分别发布公告，拟以增资方式参股中国聚变能源有限公司，3月28日，中核 集团核工业西南物理研究院新一代人造太阳"HL-3"，在国内首次实现原子核温度1.17亿度、电子温度1.6亿度。 美国Helion公司采用磁惯性约束路线，25年1月宣布完成新一轮4.25亿美元的融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expectation of a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company is facing operational pressure in Q4 2024 but aims for an 8% revenue growth in 2025, benefiting from cost reductions [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to overall weak demand, with expected revenues of 2,578 million, 2,754 million, and 2,903 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 5% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2,387 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 799 million, down 3% year-on-year [2]. - Q4 2024 saw a revenue of 425 million, a significant decline of 14.77% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 23.12% to 129 million [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The main business of pickled vegetables showed stable performance, with 2024 revenue from pickled vegetables at 2,044 million, a slight decrease of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company reduced its number of distributors by 607 to 2,632, optimizing its market presence and pricing control [4]. Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 improved by 0.27 percentage points to 50.99%, primarily due to lower raw material costs [4]. - However, Q4 2024 gross margin fell by 7.27 percentage points to 43.38% [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 33.49%, with Q4 net profit margin down by 3.29 percentage points to 30.28% [4]. Future Projections - The company plans to achieve an 8% revenue growth in 2025, with operating costs expected to rise by only 6.25% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.75, 0.79, and 0.83 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.9, 17.0, and 16.3 [4][5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export controls implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs [4][5][6] - The investment strategy suggests that domestic policies are continuously supporting the market, with small metal prices expected to show elasticity, particularly for rare earths, tin, and antimony [4][5][6] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 296.8 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 278.2 billion yuan [2] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the small metal market, with significant price movements observed in various metals [4][6] Rare Earths - The price of rare earths is at a cyclical low, with import minerals now under control, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases [4][5] - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in the rare earth sector, particularly with the expected production ramp-up of humanoid robots, which could require an additional 200,000 to 400,000 tons of rare earths [4][5] Antimony - Antimony remains a tight supply metal, with domestic prices showing resilience despite slight declines [4][5] - The domestic antimony ingot price is reported at 248,000 yuan per ton, down 4.43% [5][14] Tin - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with the SHFE tin price rising by 1.95% to 287,800 yuan per ton [4][5] - The report notes that the supply of tin is relatively inelastic, and semiconductor consumption is expected to recover gradually [4][5] Lithium - Lithium prices continue to show weakness, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 73,300 yuan per ton, down 0.75% [4][5] - The report indicates that lithium production is stable, but inventory levels are increasing, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [4][5] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are on an upward trend due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with standard-grade cobalt priced at 15.88 USD per pound, up 0.79% [4][5] - The report highlights that domestic cobalt prices are facing downward pressure despite international price increases [4][5] Market Trends - The report notes a seasonal decline in demand across various sectors, including photovoltaic and consumer electronics, while the new energy vehicle market shows strong growth [4][19][27] - The photovoltaic sector saw a year-on-year increase of 7.49% in new installations during January-February 2025, totaling 39.47 GW [16][19]