Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the antimony industry, with domestic antimony ingot prices experiencing a correction. However, large manufacturers are maintaining prices, suggesting limited downside potential [5][48]. - The report highlights that the domestic market is facing weak demand from downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and flame retardants, leading to a sluggish trading environment [4][48]. Summary by Sections Antimony Ore - In April 2025, antimony ore imports reached 4,239 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,756 tons (+186%), but a year-on-year decrease of 2,096 tons (-33.1%). Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 13,769 tons, down 5,360 tons (-28%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in April was $5,908 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 125% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [11]. Antimony Ingot - Antimony ingot production in April was 6,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% but a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Cumulative production from January to April was 25,295 tons, up 5.6% year-on-year [4][18]. - Exports in April were 90 tons, down 34% month-on-month and down 62% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to April totaling 247 tons, a decrease of 76% year-on-year [4][21]. Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in April was 6,470 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Cumulative production from January to April was 27,345 tons, down 21% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in April were 957 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56 tons (+6.2%) but a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 4,405 tons, down 59% year-on-year [4][29]. Downstream Demand - The report notes weak demand for photovoltaic glass, with April production at 2.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Cumulative production from January to April was 7.95 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year [4][41]. - The production of flame retardants showed growth, with chemical fiber production in April at 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [4][32]. Supply and Prices - As of May 19, 2025, domestic antimony ingot prices were 225,000 yuan per ton, up 105,000 yuan (+88%) year-on-year, while international prices were $61,000 per ton, up $48,500 (+369%) year-on-year [4][48]. - The report indicates a tightening supply trend for antimony ore imports, contributing to the price increases observed [48][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources, as well as Huayu Mining, which has increasing production capacity [5][57].

Industry Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market for the first time [1] Core Insights - Card Game Co., Ltd. is the largest pan-entertainment product and toy company in China, leading in the collectible card and pan-entertainment stationery sectors. In 2024, the company's revenue reached approximately 10 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 278% and a gross margin of 67.3% [2][5][6] - The collectible card market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029, reaching 44.6 billion RMB by 2029. The market size for collectible cards in 2024 is projected to be 26.3 billion RMB [2][46] - Card Game Co. has a diverse IP matrix consisting of 70 IPs, including 69 licensed and 1 proprietary IP, which enhances its product offerings and market position [2][5] Market Analysis - The collectible card market is experiencing high growth, with a significant increase in market concentration. The market size is projected to grow from 2.8 billion RMB in 2019 to 26.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 56.6% [46] - The pan-entertainment toy sector is the largest segment within the pan-entertainment product industry, expected to account for 58.5% of the overall market size in 2024 [41][45] Company Advantages - Card Game Co. has a robust product matrix and excels in IP, production, and distribution channels. The company has launched over 320 collectible card series and 42 stationery series based on more than 50 superhero characters [2][5] - The company has a strong focus on product design and development, with a significant emphasis on direct sales channels in recent years [2][5] Financial Analysis - The company's total revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows a strong upward trend, with revenues of 4.13 billion RMB, 2.66 billion RMB, and 10.06 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a substantial recovery and growth [22][27] - The gross profit margin remains high, with gross profits of 2.84 billion RMB, 1.75 billion RMB, and 6.77 billion RMB for the same period, maintaining a gross margin of around 67% [27][34]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 地产探底对内需拖累加深 ——经济数据点评（25.4） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速高位回落，补贴效果分化，汽车石油下滑。4 月社会消费品 零售总额、限额以上商品零售同比分别为 5.1%、6.6%，分别较前月的阶段 性高点回落 0.8、2.0 个百分点。主要拖累来自汽车，同比增速下滑 4.8 个 百分点至 0.7%，与金融数据中居民贷款再度降温相一致，显示房地产周期 未出现明确拐点之前，居民汽车消费回升态势尚不稳固。而同样受补贴刺 激的家电音像、通讯器材，4 月零售同比分别达到 38.8%和 19.9%，均处于 一年多以来较高增长区间，补贴效果持续显现。必需品、服务持续呈现较 强韧性和较小弹性，粮油食品同比 14.0%较前月再度小幅上行 0.2 个百分 点，餐饮收入同比 5.2%，尽管较前月小幅回落 0.4 个百分点但仍处于近一 年较高增速区间。 固定投资增速下滑，房地产探底有所加快，制造业基建高位波动。4 月固定资产投资同比 3.5%，较前月回落达 0.8 个百分点，三大主要行业同 步走弱，增长中枢进一步分化。单月房地产开发投资同比-11.3%，跌幅再 度加深 1.3 个百分 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating strong performance in the market [1][10]. - AI medical companies in the US have shown robust performance, with Hims&Hers Health reporting a first-quarter revenue of $586 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 111% [7][8]. - The market for medical large models is experiencing rapid growth, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 100% from 2019 to 2023, and is expected to reach 11.16 billion by 2028 [2][8]. Group 2 - The penetration rate of medical large models is currently low, with projections indicating it could exceed 40% by 2030, up from approximately 1% in 2020 [2][8]. - The report notes that the current market size of medical large models is close to 2 billion, with expectations of a high average growth rate of 140% during the industry explosion period [8]. - The report identifies a lack of clear safety, efficacy validation, and regulatory frameworks as significant limiting factors for the commercialization of medical large models [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The state and local governments are actively promoting the construction of "science and technology innovation high - grounds" and accelerating the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (Sci - tech bonds). It is expected that Sci - tech bonds will bring significant benefits to the cultivation of science and technology enterprises and the layout of emerging industries in various regions [10][34]. - In the bond market, different investment strategies are proposed for different types of bonds such as Sci - tech bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds, based on policy trends, market liquidity, and economic fundamentals [2][43][62]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 From a Micro - and Meso - perspective on Sci - tech Bonds 3.1.1 Local Governments Actively Build "Sci - tech High - grounds" and Accelerate the Issuance of Sci - tech Bonds - National ministries and local governments are promoting the layout and investment in the science and technology innovation industry, aiming to integrate science and technology innovation with industrial innovation. Multiple departments are jointly launching the "technology version" of the bond market to support the issuance of Sci - tech bonds [10]. - Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of Sci - tech bonds has advanced rapidly, with large - scale investors participating. The issued Sci - tech bonds have features such as low coupon rates and high subscription multiples [33]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations - Three types of Sci - tech bond issuers are recommended:城投 and产投 platforms in regions with strong economic and innovation potential; provincial, municipal, and some district - level equity - investment state - owned enterprises; local industrial state - owned enterprises and private enterprises with strong industrial operation capabilities and involvement in science and technology innovation fields [35]. - In general investment, focus on economic provinces with good development momentum and debt control, regions with favorable debt - resolution policies, and prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, and adjust the bond duration according to different regions [44]. 3.2 Weekly Views on Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds 3.2.1 Industrial Bonds - Pay attention to 2 - 3 - year industrial bonds with good liquidity, such as those in the public utilities, transportation, state - owned real estate, and cultural tourism industries. Also, focus on relevant issuers of Sci - tech bonds in high - quality enterprises [62]. - In the coal industry, Inner Mongolia has 13 coal production capacity reserve projects approved, with a total reserve capacity of 23.6 million tons per year [62]. - Policies are being implemented to speed up the repayment of accounts receivable for enterprises in construction, real estate, and urban investment, especially those with more cooperation with central enterprises [65]. 3.2.2 Financial Bonds - This week, the yields of some financial bond varieties declined, and credit spreads narrowed passively. Brokerage bonds performed better, with larger credit spread narrowing [67]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - tier and Perpetual Bonds, or "Two - Yong Bonds"), if the liquidity does not further loosen in the short term, the compression space of credit spreads is limited. It is recommended to manage liquidity well. 3 - 5 - year high - grade Two - Yong Bonds are suitable defensive varieties. Institutions with stable liability ends and high return requirements can appropriately pay attention to long - term high - grade Two - Yong Bonds [4][67]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - Relevant charts show the issuance, net financing, subscription, issuance cost, review and approval, and registration of credit bonds, financial bonds, urban investment bonds, and industrial bonds in the primary market [74][77][83]. 3.4 Secondary Market Observation 3.4.1 "Volume" of Secondary Transactions - Charts display the trading volume, number of transactions, trading volume by province, and trading volume by implicit rating of credit bonds, urban investment bonds, and industrial bonds in the secondary market [88][90][92]. 3.4.2 "Price" of Secondary Transactions - Charts show the weighted trading duration of urban investment bonds and the yield of various types of bonds in the secondary market [99].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the investment themes from the Two Sessions are not just one-time opportunities but have long-term implications for industry development and sustained excess returns [2][20]. - Short-term characteristics highlight that low valuation themes are more likely to experience valuation increases shortly after the Two Sessions [3][26]. - The correlation between market capitalization distribution and cumulative excess returns weakens over time, indicating that smaller market cap stocks (<100 billion) tend to outperform in the short term [3][30]. Group 2 - Cumulative excess returns and performance growth are significant in the long term, with themes often generating excess returns over a 360-day period post-Two Sessions [4][36]. - Historical analysis shows that only a few years (2017, 2019, 2023) underperformed, suggesting the importance of new proposals in the government work report [4][36]. - The average cumulative excess returns may not be realized in the same year as the Two Sessions, indicating a longer-term guidance effect [4][38]. Group 3 - Seasonal timing indicates that the best periods for investing in Two Sessions themes are February-March and October [5][55]. - The report suggests that themes failing to pass the first-quarter report test may see their momentum stall in spring [5][56]. Group 4 - The evolution of "blockbuster" themes shows a clear pattern: national policy setting, local follow-up, highlighting key enterprises/events, expanding networks, and standardized industry development [6][10]. - Common characteristics of successful themes include alignment with current trends, broad market potential, high recognizability, and performance support [6][10]. - Themes first introduced in the Two Sessions tend to have better long-term excess returns [6][12]. Group 5 - The report identifies investment opportunities in 2025, particularly in deep-sea technology and embodied intelligence (humanoid robots) [7][18]. - Deep-sea technology is positioned as a strategic area with strong performance support, while humanoid robots are seen as potential blockbuster themes due to their alignment with market trends [7][18]. - The report suggests that deep-sea technology has already shown significant gains since the Two Sessions, with a maximum increase of 16.91% and an excess return of 18.16% relative to the Wind All A index [12][16].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal actions initiated by the government, emphasizing the need for existing building renovations and infrastructure improvements, with significant progress expected by 2030 [3][13] - Short-term factors include the pressure for stable growth, the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13] - Long-term perspectives suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. will provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing loan conditions [3][13] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The report discusses various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and supporting home purchases, including policies in Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, and other cities [3][13] - The report notes a 28.7% year-on-year increase in residential transactions in Shenzhen in April, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market [3][13] High-Frequency Data - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 386.2 CNY/ton, showing a 0.8% decrease from the previous week but a 10.2% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1260.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and a 25.6% decrease year-on-year [4][21] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the building materials sector index fell by 0.24% [5][53] - Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing saw a 3.07% increase, while cement manufacturing experienced a 1.21% decline [5][53] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [6][68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs has led to a short-term suppression of gold prices, but the long-term investment value of gold remains unchanged [10][11] - The industrial metals sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, making prices more likely to rise than fall [12][13] - In the renewable energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to remain stable, with strategic investment opportunities still available [16][17] - The report notes a potential easing of rare earth controls, creating a bullish sentiment in the market [18][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The easing of tariffs between the US and China has created a short-term pressure on gold prices, but the long-term investment value remains intact. The report suggests focusing on companies like Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [10][11][12] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for copper remain tight, supporting price stability. The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts will further bolster copper prices in the medium to long term. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining [12][13][14] Renewable Energy Metals - The report indicates that while there may be a slight increase in export orders due to eased tariffs, the overall supply-demand balance for lithium remains weak in the short term. Strategic investment opportunities are highlighted for companies like Salt Lake Potash and Ganfeng Lithium [16][17] Other Minor Metals - The report suggests that the potential easing of rare earth controls could lead to increased prices, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth being of interest [18][20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that CATL is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with 90% of the raised funds directed towards projects in Hungary [9] - The CIBF2025 event concluded successfully, showcasing advancements in solid-state battery technology [10] - April saw record high wholesale volumes for passenger vehicles, with significant growth in exports of new energy passenger vehicles [11][12] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - CATL's upcoming Hong Kong listing aims to enhance local supply capabilities through significant investment in Hungary [9] - The CIBF2025 event featured the launch of new battery technologies, including a third-generation battery with energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg [10] - April's wholesale volume for passenger vehicles reached 2.19 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles [11] Photovoltaic Sector - The silicon material segment is undergoing a "production reduction to support prices" strategy, with a decrease in production across the industry [19] - Major silicon manufacturers are reportedly planning to consolidate remaining production capacities, which could positively impact market expectations [21][22] - The report notes a slight decline in silicon wafer prices and a stable market for solar glass, with some companies adjusting their production schedules [23][24] Energy Storage Sector - The report discusses a surge in energy storage demand in South Asia due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan [32] - Shanghai is exploring a capacity compensation mechanism to encourage independent energy storage projects [36] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with various initiatives being launched to support this sector [35] Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The Xinjiang to Sichuan ultra-high voltage project is expected to commence construction in December 2025, enhancing power transmission capabilities [42][44] - The State Grid has released a white paper on "Artificial Intelligence + Power," indicating ongoing digital transformation in the industry [45] - The manufacturing PMI has slightly declined, but new automation technologies are being introduced to improve efficiency [46] Hydrogen Energy Sector - Various regions are implementing supportive policies for hydrogen energy production, including fee exemptions for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles [53][55] - Technological breakthroughs in flexible hydrogen liquefaction systems and offshore wind power hydrogen storage systems have been achieved [56] - The report suggests a growing focus on green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, with several companies positioned to benefit from these trends [57]

轻工制造 GLO 日本试销推进，新型烟草趋势向上 投资要点： 【周观点】5 月 12 日日本 GLO 官网公布新品 HILO 信息，新品预期将于 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县试销限定发售，若日本市场试销良好，产品力进一 步验证，思摩尔 HNB 业务成长空间有望进一步打开；本周中美贸易冲突暂 缓，优质低估出口链、以及前期受外销业务担忧的包装龙头迎来布局窗口； 出口情绪好转带动包装纸企涨价潮，玖龙、山鹰、理文等集体发布提价函。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/20 7/31 10/11 12/22 3/4 5/15 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 华福证券 轻工制 ...