华福证券 東路 研 2023 年 医 药 研 发 概 览 — — 产 业 经 济 周 观 点 （2024.11.25—2024.11.29） 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业全部录得正收益，表现良好。 相关报告 1、股市流动性月报：两融余额大幅上升，基金发 行显著回暖——2024.12.04 2、基金发行月报：权益型占比环比提高，被动型 发行大幅回暖——2024.12.03 3、盈利周期：美股稳健，欧股承压——2024.12.02 2、根据药智网发布的药智咨询《2024 年中国医药研发蓝皮书》中， 2023 年中国医药行业在政策、市场、研发、投融资方面展现活力。政 策简化审评审批，激励创新药，特别关注罕见病和儿童用药，加速药 品上市。医保改革 DGR/DIP 稳步实施，提升基金效率。市场规模扩大， 公立医疗机构和零售药店销售额增长。抗肿瘤药市场增长稳定，心血 管和代谢领域市场萎缩。研发上，1 类创新药临床申报创新高，肿瘤和 血液领域为热点，眼科受关注。国际市场突破，license out ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 宏 观 研 究 行业比较专刊 下游消费延续复苏，中游行业景气回升 ➢ 核心观点 整体来看，下游消费延续复苏，中游行业景气有所回升，上游景气度则有 所分化。（1）上游行业景气有所分化。建材中的玻璃和水泥价格冲高。 我们跟踪的主要化工产品的价格大多出现了修复。有色金属方面，铜、铝 期货价格小幅下行，稀土价格指数转跌，但是碳酸锂的价格在久跌后近两 个月出现了回升。11月焦煤和动力煤价格小幅回落；钢铁价格总体波动幅 度较小。WTI原油月均价格处于相对低位，库存则小幅上升。（2）中游 行业多数景气回升。由于本轮电子的大周期，全球和亚洲半导体销售额保 持高增长。交通运输方面，快递收入和业务量同比双双增加。机械重卡方 面，挖掘机销量持续高增，重卡销量跌幅收窄。动力电池产量和装车量保 持高增长。光伏价格仍保持低位运行，部分产品实现止跌。随着后续行业 龙头带头涨价及行业自律逐步实现，光伏产业链价格有望出现回升。 （3）下游消费延续恢复态势。随着一系列消费刺激政策，社零同比继续 增长。其中家电和汽车行业直接 ...

Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is expected to gradually recover in 2025, driven by policy support, with some industries potentially completing supply-side adjustments and exiting deflation [1] - Overseas, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe, with a weak upward inventory cycle, but uncertainties such as potential tariff impacts and Japan's interest rate hikes remain [1] - The report focuses on four key areas: debt resolution, restructuring, certain growth opportunities, and supply-side improvements, with a particular emphasis on restructuring [1] M&A and Restructuring Trends - M&A and restructuring activities have become more active, with a noticeable profit effect, especially as IPO activities slow down [2] - There is a seesaw effect between M&A and IPOs, with M&A becoming a viable alternative for companies when IPO exits are delayed [2] - Since August 2023, regulatory policies have tightened IPOs, leading to increased support for M&A and restructuring in 2024 [2] - The number of companies announcing restructuring plans has risen since July 2024, with the restructuring index significantly outperforming the Wind All-A Index [2] Policy Support for M&A and Restructuring - In 2024, policies have actively supported M&A and restructuring, particularly through documents like the new "National Nine Articles" in April, the "Tech Eight Articles" in June, and the "M&A Six Articles" in September [3] - These policies aim to improve review efficiency, diversify payment methods, increase valuation tolerance, and support cross-industry M&A, especially for unprofitable assets [3] - M&A and restructuring are seen as effective tools for market value management, helping companies transition to new productive forces and improve industrial concentration [3] Seven Investment Clues for Restructuring 1. **Asset Injection within the Same Controlling Entity**: Companies that have halted or terminated IPOs may inject assets into listed companies under the same controlling entity [3] 2. **Previously Failed M&A Attempts**: Companies that failed in previous M&A attempts may restart restructuring efforts under current supportive policies [4] 3. **Change in Controlling Shareholder**: A change in controlling shareholder may lead to new asset injections or strategic realignments [4] 4. **Market Value Management for Long-Term Undervalued Companies**: Companies with long-term undervaluation may use restructuring to improve quality and valuation [6] 5. **Shell Resource Value**: In a tight IPO environment, companies with low market capitalization and clean balance sheets may serve as shell resources for reverse takeovers [6] 6. **Market Share Expansion by Industry Leaders**: Leading companies with strong cash positions but weak profitability may use M&A to expand market share [7] 7. **Local State-Owned Enterprises**: Local state-owned enterprises, supported by regional policies, may actively engage in M&A to enhance market value and industrial efficiency [7] Regional Policy Support - Regions like Xinjiang, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced policies to encourage M&A and restructuring among local state-owned enterprises [65] - These policies aim to improve market value management, enhance industrial concentration, and promote technological innovation [65]

Table_First epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 策 略 专 题 2025 年度策略系列报告"碧海潮生，日出东方" 在混沌中寻找秩序 摘要： ➢ 展望2025，国内经济或在政策推动下渐进式复苏，部分行业或率先完成 供给侧出清、走出"通缩"。海外层面，美国经济整体预期或好于欧洲，库 存周期维持弱向上；但同时不确定性尚存，关税潜在冲击，日本加息不及预 期等值得注意。总量分析外，我们还希望捕捉2025年的潜在的结构性机会， 为投资者提供超额收益。系列报告中将对化债、重组、确定性成长、供给侧 改善4个方向展开分析。本文重点对2025年海外市场进行展望。 ➢ 美国：特朗普2.0时代到来。展望2025年，特朗普上台后美国贸易、财政 和货币等政策方面不确定性增加，可能导致全球贸易紧张局势升级，影响美 国出口和通胀水平，在货币政策方面，特朗普对美联储的干预和潜在的人事 任命可能会影响央行的独立性和政策路径，地缘政治风险亦是影响贸易流 动、能源价格和市场的波动的不确定因素。目前来看，2025年全球经济出现 严重放缓概率较低，降息周 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Table_Fi rst|Ta ble_Su mmary 华福证券 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 研 究 股市流动性月报 两融余额大幅上升，基金发行显著回暖 投资要点： 综合来看，我们认为11月份股票市场流动性环比有所改善。具体来看： （1）一级市场：11月一级市场股票市场募集资金总额192亿元（包括 IPO、增发和配股），环比上升58.6%。从募集资金结构来看，IPO募资规 模为52亿，环比上涨4.9%。增发股票的募集资金规模为139亿，环比大幅 度上涨96.1%。 （2）产业资本：11月重要股东二级市场增持122亿元，减持407亿元，净 减持286亿元，相比上月净减持环比增加155.7亿元。10月上市公司回购股 票金额323.35亿元，环比下降55%。 （3）二级市场：11月份两市日均成交额为19676亿元，相较于上月下降 2.3%。11月底开放式基金的股票类投资比例为68.43%，相比10月底的 67.37%有所上升。此外偏股型基金新发规模为1086亿元，环比上涨911亿 元。 展望后市，我们认为 A 股流动性环境边际上有望持续改善。11 月股 ...

华福证券 投资要点： 权益型占比环比提高，被动型发行大幅回暖 团队成员 分析师： 燕翔(S0210523050003) yx30128@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 朱成成(S0210523060003) zcc30168@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、盈利周期：美股稳健，欧股承压——2024.12.02 2、内循环有望开始正反馈——产业经济周观点— —2024.12.01 3、产业经济年度策略：内外循环走向扩张—— 2024.11.29 总体来看，11 月份全市场新发基金规模环比大幅上涨。其中市场 比较关注的被动权益型和主动权益型基金发行状况均有改善。并且权 益型基金占比出现大幅度的提升，11 月发行占比达到了 73.7%，占据 基金发行的主导地位。 具体来看： 11 月份国内新发行开放式基金 1474 亿份，较上月增加了 1141 亿 份。与去年同期 11 月份数据相比，发行规模增加了 171 亿份。从产品 数量来看，11 月份总共有 98 只产品新发行，环比增加了 43 只；同比 减少 46 只，环比增加幅度较大。 从结构上看，11月新发基金以权益型基金为主，其发行规模为1086 亿份，占比 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 策 略 研 究 盈利周期：美股稳健，欧股承压 投资要点： 24Q3美股盈利保持稳健，结构上主要靠TMT和医药带动：（1）收入： 24Q3标普500收入增速5.5%，较Q2（5.3%）小幅提升；（2）EPS：24Q3 标普500EPS增速5.9%，较24Q2（11.4%）明显回落。但剔除基数效应、采 用两年复合计算，24Q3美股盈利则继续提升（3.9%→5.6%）；分行业 看，TMT、医药和可选消费增速领先，能源、材料和工业相对靠后；按贡 献度看，24Q3美股盈利主要靠TMT和医药贡献；（3）ROE：24Q3美股 ROE（TTM）为18.7%，与24Q2持平，绝对值仍然不低，且净利润率仍然 稳健；（4）市场预期：与24Q2相比，Q3美股盈利超预期家数占比由 78.8%降至74.7%，略低于过去10年均值，总体表现中规中矩。 24Q3欧股营收承压但盈利改善，且仍明显不及美股：（1）收入： 24Q3Stoxx Europe 600收入增速为-1.4%，较24Q2（0.2%）边际走弱，营收 相对 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The coal industry is experiencing a golden era due to energy security concerns and policy support, with supply constraints driven by strict capacity controls and regional supply differentiation [2] - Coal demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic challenges, with thermal coal prices staying above 800 yuan/ton in 2024, and the report expects coal prices to remain high with strong profit sustainability for coal companies [2] - The report recommends focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, as well as those benefiting from coal-electricity integration and long-term supply tightness [2] Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.02% compared to a 1.32% rise in the CSI 300 [17] - Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.06%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.15% gain [17] - The coal sector's PE ratio is 12.3x, ranking third from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.34x, placing it in the lower-middle range [19] Thermal Coal Market - As of November 29, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 818 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week (-0.7%) [2] - Coal inventories at power plants, ports, and coal companies are declining, with power plant daily consumption rising due to lower temperatures [2] - Methanol and urea operating rates remain at historically high levels, with methanol at 85.3% (-1.6pct week-on-week) and urea at 83.6% (+1.8pct week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Market - The Jingtang Port main coking coal price remained stable at 1,640 yuan/ton as of November 29, 2024 [2] - Iron water production slightly declined, but coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support [2] - The operating rate of large coking plants (>2 million tons) increased to 78.4%, up 0.8pct week-on-week [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, with a combined operating rate of 84.5%, up 0.3pct week-on-week [51] - Power plant coal consumption rose to 820,000 tons/day, up 0.6% week-on-week, while inventories decreased by 4.7 million tons (-0.3%) [53] - Methanol and urea operating rates showed mixed trends, with methanol down 1.6pct and urea up 1.8pct week-on-week [60][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, are also recommended [2] - Additionally, companies with potential for production increases and global resource scarcity, such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal, are highlighted [2]

华福证券 农林牧渔 旺季消费回暖，猪价震荡上行 投资要点： 生猪养殖：旺季消费回暖，猪价震荡上行。1）上周猪价震荡上行。周 中前期需求增量，猪价重心向上抬升，随后养殖端出栏意愿增强带动猪价 小幅回落，周后期养殖端存抗价情绪支撑价格上行。11 月 29 日猪价 16.51 元/公斤，周环比+0.13 元/公斤。同时消费好转带动肥猪需求转旺，肥标价 差扩大，11 月 22-28 日 200kg/175kg 生猪与标猪价差为 0.88/0.65 元/斤，周 环比+0.05/+0.09 元/斤。2）腌腊陆续开启，屠企宰量延续增长。上周初气 温下降提振猪肉消费，叠加部分区域腌腊、灌肠启动，屠企宰量增长。11 月 23-29 日屠企日均宰量 16.89 万头，周环比+5.92%。根据中央气象台预 报，12 月 1 日起较强冷空气将影响长江以北地区，气温预计继续下降，加 之临近冬至，需求有望有进一步释放。3）部分压栏产能释放，均重继续增 加。本周生猪出栏均重继续增加，根据涌益咨询数据，11 月 22-28 日商品 猪出栏均重 127.35 公斤，周环比+ 0.62 公斤。其中集团维持正常节奏出栏， 周内出栏均重小幅下降；散 ...

华福证券 机械设备 2024 年 12 月 02 日 研 नार 机械设备 精工科技机器人复材 3D 打印柔性制造装备的研 制成功，国产激光器开始导入 3D 打印设备 投资要点： 新材料（碳纤维）+新技术（3D 打印），开拓行业新场景。 精工科技碳纤维研究院团队使用碳纤维短切纤维增强材料，成功 研制机器人复材 3D 打印柔性制造装备。通过机器人柔性运动控制结合 3D 打印的工艺方式，可以突破传统 3D 打印装备空间的局限，实现大 尺寸复杂几何形状和结构的复材构件的制造，这将有助于碳纤维新材 料在众多领域更经济、更便捷、更广泛地应用，并进一步推动这一新 材料、新技术的快速发展。 产业链核心零部件国产化加速进行，锐科激光开始进入 3D 打印设备 供应链。 团队成员 分析师： 俞能飞(S0210524040008) ynf30520@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 吴泽良(S0210123090046) wzl30206@hfzq.com.cn 锐科激光与某央企签订 120 台 3D 打印激光器销售合同，用于精 密核心器件的生产制造。锐科激光此次签订销售 3D 打印系列激光器， 是采用全新的设计，优化了功率监控系 ...