Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong competitive positions of domestic companies in the tire sector and potential growth opportunities in various sub-industries [3][5][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant investment activities in the phosphate chemical sector, particularly the planned project by Chuanjinno in Egypt, which aims to enhance cost efficiency and optimize the company's cost structure [3]. - The report also notes the signing of a contract for a 300,000-ton bio-aviation fuel project in Zhejiang, indicating a growing focus on sustainable energy solutions within the chemical industry [3]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the resilience of certain cyclical industries, the recovery of consumer electronics, and the potential for growth in the phosphate and fluorochemical sectors due to supply constraints and increasing demand [5][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.59%. The basic chemical index saw a modest gain of 0.25% [15]. - The top-performing sub-industries included dyeing chemicals (5.17%), nylon (4.77%), and polyester (4.61%), while the tire sector experienced a decline of 2.02% [18][19]. Key Industry Developments - Chuanjinno plans to invest CNY 1.934 billion in a phosphate chemical project in Egypt, which will include the production of various phosphate products with a construction period of three years [3]. - Zhejiang Jianglan signed a contract for a bio-aviation fuel project with a total investment of CNY 1.5 billion, expected to generate an annual output value exceeding CNY 3.6 billion [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The tire sector shows strong competitive advantages among domestic companies, with recommended stocks including Sailun, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [5]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with a focus on key players in the display materials supply chain [5]. - Investment Theme 3: The phosphate chemical sector is highlighted for its tightening supply-demand dynamics, with recommended stocks including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng [5]. - Investment Theme 4: The fluorochemical sector is poised for recovery due to reduced production quotas for refrigerants, with key players like Jushi and Juhua recommended [5]. - Investment Theme 5: The report suggests monitoring vitamin products due to supply disruptions affecting market dynamics, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine highlighted [9].

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 04 月 20 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 轻工制造 3 月家具文体社零靓丽，内需景气回升可期 投资要点： 【周观点】3 月家具、文娱体育社零增长靓丽，持续看好内需消费景气回 升；本周个护龙头百亚一季报表现靓丽，外围省份高增全国扩张推进，豪 悦护理 Q4 收入增长提速、关注公司 25 年代工业务恢复以及卫生巾自主品 牌进展；关注晨光股份、布鲁可、康耐特光学回调布局机会。 证 券 研 究 报 告 3）轻工消费：①本周百亚股份发布一季报，1Q25 实现营收 9.95 亿 元，同比+30.1%，实现归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比+27.3%。Q1 线下 渠道表现亮眼，实现营收 6.5 亿元同比+49%，其中核心区域以外省份 同比+125.1%，电商渠道营收 3.22 亿元同比+8.6%。Q1 毛利率同比 -1pct，主因渠道结构和收入占比变化，高端系列产品占比仍在提升； 销售费用率同比-0.43pct，继续加强品牌建设投入。随着舆情影响逐步 消化，建议持续关注公司 Q2 旺季销售表现及线下外围省份的成长势 能。②本周豪悦护理发布年报，24 年实现营收 29.3 亿元，同比+ ...

估值层面，截至 4 月 18 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）61.65 倍，分位数 80%，考虑到现业绩披露仍未结束，PE-TTM 现 值的业绩基数恰好为军工板块业绩触底阶段（2023Q4-2024Q3），叠加 2025 年行业基本面强恢复预期，当下时点军工板块具备较高配置价值比。 华福证券 行 华福证券 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：军工景气趋势不变 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 本周，申万军工指数（801740）下跌 2.55% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.59%， 相对超额-3.14pct，受短期波动及业绩期资金避险趋势影响，整体指数表 现欠佳，但仍有自主可控方向跑出明显超额，主要系： 期 报 告 4 月 15 日，彭博社称，作为对美国关税反制的一部分，中国已要求国内航 空公司停止接收美国波音公司的飞机，并暂停购买相关设备和零部件。现 有国际形势下，对抗趋势愈演愈烈，各方向自主可控至关重要，国之重器 C919 供应体系全面转向国内或是大势所趋，国产替代趋势明确，因此我们 认为，后续商发及商飞产业链发展或有望全面加速。 资金层面，本周被动基金规模和基金份 ...

行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 04 月 20 日 业 研 究 有色金属 美国关税政策反复，周内金价再创新高 投资要点： 一周市场回顾：中洲特材（21.89%）、龙宇股份（15.61%）、鹏欣资 源（13.70%）、华锋股份（12.70%）、志特新材（12.39%）、青岛中程（12.36%）、 有研新材（11.52%）、赤峰黄金（9.65%）、金田铜业（9.62%）、科达制 造（9.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国关税政策反复，周内金价再创新高。美特朗普"对等关 税"政策反复引发市场避险交易，周内金价再创新高，特朗普周三宣称与 日本的关税谈判取得了"重大进展"阶段性缓和市场的避险情绪导致金价 有所走弱。鲍威尔表态美联储不会干预以应对股市的剧烈下跌。欧洲方面， 欧洲央行将存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率下调25基点， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [8] Core Viewpoints - The national subsidy policy continues to drive domestic sales growth, with a focus on the improvement of the domestic demand sector [2][13] - As of April 10, consumers have purchased over 100 million old-for-new home appliances nationwide, with significant subsidy funds utilized [3][13] - The government plans to expand the subsidy categories from 8 to 12 by 2025, increasing the number of air conditioners eligible for subsidies [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following areas due to policy support and expected recovery in domestic demand: 1. Major appliances benefiting from the old-for-new policy, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual [5][19] 2. The pet industry, seen as resilient during economic cycles, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings [5][19] 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which are expected to see demand recovery this year, with a focus on leading small appliance companies like Bear Electric, Feike Electric, Supor, and Newell [5][19] 4. Electric two-wheelers, with strong domestic sales improvement expected, recommending companies like Yadea Holdings, Aima Technology, and Ninebot [5][19] Market Data - The home appliance sector saw a weekly change of +0.2%, with specific segments like white goods, black goods, small appliances, and kitchen appliances showing respective changes of +0.3%, +1.2%, +1.4%, and +0.3% [4][21] - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with LME copper increasing by 1.40% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.68% [4][21] Industry News - The report highlights the strong performance of the old-for-new policy in various provinces, with significant sales and subsidy utilization reported [14][40] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the old-for-new consumption policy, a significant increase from the previous year's 150 billion yuan [13][14]

机械设备 2025 年 04 月 20 日 行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：苹果调整供应链布局，持续关注 果链的超跌机会 苹果调整供应链布局，关注果链的超跌机会 根据集微网报道，受到美国总统川普关税政策的影响，苹果正在 调整供应链布局。外媒 MacMagazine 报导，鸿海配合调整苹果 iPhone 供应链布局，鸿海巴西圣保罗厂开始出货 iPhone 16e。 此前受关税消息影响，A 股果链公司大幅下跌。我们认为，此前 关税对果链公司的影响被高估，苹果对供应商的要求极为严格，国内 果链公司具备不可替代性。对于设备企业来说，苹果或将更多的资源 投向有利于降本提效的柔性自动化、3D 打印等新设备和新工艺；或者 加速推广高端机型、折叠屏、眼镜等新产品，也有利于相关产线的新 建和升级。 华为发布智能眼镜 2 钛空版 4 月 16 日，华为智能眼镜 2 钛空圆框光学镜在鸿蒙智家及智能眼 镜新品"抢鲜看"发布会上发布。钛空圆框光学镜用的是圆形钛金属 镜框，配备小艺翻译、头部控制等功能，支持面对面翻译、同声传译、 全天候智慧播报，续航为 11 小时，售价 2299 元 华福证券 国产手 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the TMT sector has collectively shown "bottoming" signals, with 256 indices indicating a bottoming pattern, primarily within the TMT sector, while 19 indices have broken out, mainly in the downstream consumption sector, particularly in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning of peak signals, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and constructing trading heat indicators to track popular themes [9][12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 45%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 9.4% below its 60-day moving average, while the trading heat for Deepseek has dropped to 46%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 17.6% below its 60-day moving average [4][20]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the thematic investment data tracking system will be regularly updated to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [3][9]. - The report notes that the majority of the 256 indices showing a bottoming pattern are concentrated in the TMT sector, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in this area [12]. - The report provides insights into the adjustment levels of leading stocks corresponding to the themes being monitored, indicating a need for caution as trading heat declines [20].

在鸿蒙智行新品发布会上，家庭智慧旗舰 SUV 问界 M8 发布，包 括大五座和享六座两个版本，上市搭载华为 ADS 3.3 高阶智能驾驶系 统，根据华为规划将在 2025 年三季度全系升级 Huawei ADS 4， 价格带覆盖 35.98~44.98 万元起。同时享界 S9 增程版发布，售价 30.98 万元起，同样上市即搭载华为 ADS 3.3 高阶智能驾驶系统。另外继问 界、智界、享界、尊界之后，华为与上汽集团正式发布"SAIC 尚界" 品牌，首期投入 60 亿元，打造超 5000 人尚界团队，以及专属超级工 厂。华为常务董事、终端 BG 董事长余承东表示，尚界品牌首款车型 力争于 2025 年秋季上市。 华为智能眼镜 2 售价 2299 元，支持同声传译续航达 11 小时 在鸿蒙智家及智能眼镜新品"抢先看"活动中，华为发布智能眼 镜 2—钛空圆框光学镜。其配备小艺翻译、头部控制等功能，支持面对 面翻译、同声传译、全天候智慧播报等，售价 2299 元。该款智能眼镜 采用钛金属打造，并在圆形钛金属镜框上采用"鸢尾"雕花设计；在 智慧功能方面，该款智能眼镜的小艺翻译功能支持面对面翻译和同声 传译，适用于不同 ...

行 业 研 究 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 04 月 20 日 医药生物 再论康弘药业：创新平台价值需要重估 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 4 月 14 日- 2025 年 4 月 18 日）中信医药指 数下跌 0.4%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.0pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 22 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数下跌 1.4%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.7pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 13 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：双成药 业（+56.38%）、立方制药（+47.07%）、舒泰神（+30.27%）、悦康药业 （+21.40%）、东诚药业（+16.90%）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周市场复盘及中短期投资思考：本周 AH 两市均跑输大盘，本周持 续关税影响后的修复行情，医药板块此前表现强势，本周相对跑输，成交 量占比持续下降。不过仍有热点，一方面是本周礼来公司宣布其每日口服 GLP-1 药物 Orforglipron，针对 2 型糖尿病成人患者实现积极的 3 期试验结 果带动了减肥药主题大涨（如金凯生科、德源药业等）、另一方面是创新 药主题， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous expansion in photovoltaic installations and maintains stable dividends, with an active and comprehensive plan for 2025 [3] - The company's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 1.933 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 218 million yuan, down 17.59% year-on-year [4] - The company's total installed capacity reached 4.1056 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, with hydropower accounting for 3.2335 million kilowatts and photovoltaic power accounting for 872,100 kilowatts [5] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in 2024 was 0.3052 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decline of 3.6% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.06 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining a stable dividend level [6] - The company is actively planning for green electricity trading in 2025, with expected related transactions amounting to 50 million yuan [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.933 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -2.9% [9] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 218 million yuan, with a growth rate of -17.6% [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.51 yuan [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 30.2 [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 405 million yuan, 423 million yuan, and 446 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.2, 15.6, and 14.8 [7]