财富科技业务上，新一代核心业务系统 UF3.0 在东方证券完成两 融业务全客户切换，综合理财平台 6.0 全年完成 32 家新客户签约，理 财销售平台全年完成 23 家新客户签约，资产配置平台完成 14 家新客 户签约。 公 华福证券 司 研 究 公 司 恒生电子（600570.SH） 市场回暖需求复苏，AI+战略行稳致远 投资要点： 公司发布 2024 年年报 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 65.81 亿元，同比下降 9.62%；实现 归母净利润 10.43 亿元，同比下降 26.75%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.34 亿元，同比下降 42.39%。 24 年下游客户预算收紧，核心业务短暂承压 财 报 点 评 分业务看，公司财富科技、资管科技、运营与机构科技业务营业 收入分别下降 17.5%、8.4%、10.2%。受市场波动影响，公司下游金融 机构业务收入增速放缓，进而影响其金融 IT 投入，部分金融机构科技 投入负增长，且普遍出现 IT 预算执行率下降，执行进度放缓的现象， 采购全流程周期显著增长，验收流程拉长。 各业务板块上线均有突破，AI+战略行稳致远 | 基本数据 | | --- | 资管科技业务上 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 4 月 3 日 AI 时代下一天 24 小时的分配变化 团队成员 投资要点： 国民时间利用变化情况 策 略 点 根据国家统计局全国时间利用调查报告的口径，将国民一天的时 间分配分为六大领域，分别为个人生理必需活动、有酬劳动、无酬劳 动、个人自由支配活动、学习培训以及交通领域。我们选取 2018 年以 及2024年的两次调查数据进行分析，寻找其背后反映的国民生活观念、 方式变化以及社会环境、科技进步对生活的影响。 图表 1：2024 年与 2018 年各领域时间分配比例 评 数据来源：国家统计局，华福证券研究所 2024 年的国民时间分配相较于 2018 年出现不小变化，国民交通出 行的时间小幅增加，此外还压缩了有酬劳动、无酬劳动以及个人自由 支配活动领域的时间，转移至学习培训的提升以及个人生理必需上。 个人生理必需领域在一天中占据的时间超过一半，总体变化不大，相 较 2018 年仅增加 2.37pct。自我提升的学习培训领域是六大领域中变化 最大的领域，居民日均从 27 分钟增加至 107 分钟，增长近 3 倍。有酬 劳动、无酬劳动以及个人自由活动支配领域的日均数据都相 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][16] Core Insights - The report highlights the transition of the new generation of coal power towards a foundational, supportive, and regulatory power source, emphasizing the need for clean and low-carbon development [4][6] - It discusses the establishment of a market-oriented electricity pricing system to promote green and low-carbon transformation, with specific examples of green electricity trading growth in Jiangsu and Liaoning provinces [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of a "user pays" mechanism in waste incineration and water treatment sectors, which is expected to enhance cash flow and lead to a revaluation of operational assets [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of guidelines by the Central Committee and State Council on April 2, 2025, aimed at improving pricing governance mechanisms, particularly in the context of coal power transitioning to low-carbon operations [4] - It mentions that in the first half of 2023, auxiliary service fees accounted for approximately 1.9% of the on-grid electricity price, with capacity fees expected to increase in importance as coal power functions evolve [4] Market Developments - The report indicates that in 2024, Jiangsu province completed green electricity transactions of 12.657 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 143%, while Liaoning province's green electricity transaction volume reached 12.783 billion kilowatt-hours, up 179.9% [5] - It also highlights the establishment of a unified national green electricity certificate trading system, which is anticipated to enhance the synergy between green electricity trading and carbon trading [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within various sectors: for coal power, it suggests Jiangsu Guoxin and cautiously recommends Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy; for hydropower, it recommends Changjiang Power and cautiously suggests Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [6] - In the green electricity sector, it advises attention to Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, while cautiously recommending Longyuan Power and Zhejiang New Energy [6] - The report also identifies opportunities in the waste incineration sector, recommending Yongxing Co. and cautiously suggesting United Water [6]

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 02 日 策 略 研 究 消费与医疗周报——生物药企业：出海模式多态 并存，市场拓展方兴未艾 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业仅三分之一录得正收益，表现 不佳。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据沙利文《2025 年中国生物药出海趋势蓝皮书》，中国生物 药企业通过 license-out、NewCo、并购等多种模式加速国际化进程，其 中 license-out 模式逐渐成为中国生物药企获取现金流的重要途径。2023 年，中国生物药 license-out 交易数量首次超过 license-in，交易总金额 达到 192.7 亿美元，远超一级市场 45.0 亿的融资规模。2024 年，相关 交易事件数量进一步增长至 45 件，主要集中在肿瘤、罕见病及免疫系 统疾病等领域。对于中国生物药企业，东南亚、中东及北非等新兴市 场展现出巨大潜力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、消费金融新政—宏观政策与产业风口跟踪—— 2025.03.31 2、滞涨与关税双击下的美股困局——2025. ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases globally since the 21st century, attributed to environmental issues and lifestyle changes, with the WHO identifying allergies as one of the three major diseases to focus on in this century [2][3] - Approximately 20% to 30% of the global population suffers from allergic diseases, including 300 million asthma patients and 400 million with allergic rhinitis, with China reporting around 40% of its population affected by allergies [3][4] Group 2 - The global allergy diagnostics market is projected to reach 38.94 billion yuan in 2024 and 71.85 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.75% from 2024 to 2030 [4][10] - Traditional allergy testing methods are categorized into in vivo and in vitro tests, with skin prick tests being the most widely used in vivo method due to its simplicity, low cost, and high safety [4][5] - In vitro testing methods, such as serum total IgE and sIgE testing, are gaining popularity for their safety and precision, with various techniques like immunofluorescence and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays being utilized in China [9][10] Group 3 - The demand for allergy diagnostics is expected to rise due to the increasing prevalence of allergic diseases and the low current diagnosis rates in China, which may lead to a significant market expansion as public awareness grows [10][12] - Advances in research and technology, such as microfluidic technology and specific IgE testing, are anticipated to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of allergy diagnostics, potentially altering the market landscape [10][12] - A trend towards domestic alternatives to imported allergy testing products is emerging in China, driven by improvements in local companies' R&D capabilities and government support [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 119 per share, implying a market capitalization of HKD 106.9 billion [6]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress with its drug Ivonescimab (依沃西), which is expected to receive approval for first-line lung cancer treatment by H1 2025. The drug has also been included in the 2024 National Medical Insurance Directory [2][17]. - Multiple Phase III clinical trials for Ivonescimab are advancing efficiently, with promising data indicating it may become the preferred first-line treatment for advanced PD-L1 positive NSCLC [3][19]. - The company is also developing other indications for Ivonescimab, including colorectal cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, and triple-negative breast cancer, with expected peak sales exceeding HKD 55 billion domestically and USD 60 billion globally for lung cancer [23][41]. Summary by Sections Ivonescimab Developments - Ivonescimab has received NMPA approval for treating EGFR-TKI resistant non-squamous NSCLC and is included in the national insurance directory for 2024 [3][17]. - The drug's application for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive NSCLC has received priority review and is expected to be approved by H1 2025, with mPFS data showing significant improvement over existing treatments [3][19]. - Ongoing Phase III trials for various cancers are showing promising results, with the potential for Ivonescimab to become a leading treatment option in multiple indications [19][22]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of HKD 33.37 billion, HKD 50.18 billion, and HKD 78.85 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected net profit of HKD 6.12 billion in 2026 and HKD 24.73 billion in 2027 [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant growth trajectory, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) from -0.57 in 2024 to 2.76 in 2027 [8]. Market Potential - The report estimates that the domestic sales peak for Ivonescimab in lung cancer could exceed HKD 55 billion, while global sales could surpass USD 60 billion, driven by its first-line treatment potential [23][41]. - The company is also exploring the treatment of colorectal cancer, with expectations of peak sales exceeding HKD 30 billion, supported by strong clinical trial results [43].

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 02 日 金 融 工 程 4 月行业配置重点推荐顺周期——行业配置策略 月度报告(2025/4) 投资要点： 宏观驱动策略 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 自2016年初至2025年3月31日，综合模型超额年化收益率4.92%， 超额波动率 7.23%，信息比率 0.68，最大回撤 9.51%，IC 均值 5.17%， ICIR18.66%，年化换手 3.22 倍。模型在 2025 年 4 月份推荐的行业包 括汽车、有色金属、食品饮料、石油石化、建筑、电力及公用事业。3 月宏观驱动策略绝对收益 1.02%，超额收益为 1.01%。2025 年以来至 3 月 31 日，综合模型绝对收益 1.28%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 益-3.37%，在主动权益基金中排名 67.00%。 动态平衡策略 我们从平衡的角度提出了兼顾胜率和赔率的动态平衡策略。自 2015 年初至 2025 年 3 月 31 日策略年化绝对收益 16.45%，年化相对收 益 12.3%，信息比率为 1.86，相对最大回撤为 7.87%。模型在 2025 年 4 月份推荐行业为电力设备及新能源、基础化工、通信、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2024 annual report, achieving revenue of 3.02 billion RMB (+30.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 307 million RMB (+21.6%), which aligns with expectations [2][8]. - The offline business continues to grow rapidly, with revenue reaching 2.74 billion RMB (+34.5%), driven by contributions from newly acquired institutions and growth in existing operations [4][3]. - The company has expanded its network significantly, operating 79 medical institutions by the end of 2024, an increase of 21 from the previous year, covering 20 cities [6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.1%, maintaining year-on-year stability, while the net profit margin was 10.2% (-0.7 percentage points) [5]. - The adjusted net profit for the year was 400 million RMB (+31.4%), reflecting effective cost control with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 12.2%, 6.1%, and 0.6%, respectively [5]. Business Expansion and Innovation - The company is actively investing in AI technology to enhance its traditional Chinese medicine services, aiming to improve diagnostic capabilities and customer service [7]. - The forecast for revenue growth is optimistic, with projections of 3.81 billion RMB, 4.84 billion RMB, and 6.09 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the traditional Chinese medicine service industry, benefiting from strong demand and supportive policies, with significant long-term growth potential [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [8][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high production output in 2024, leading to better-than-expected financial performance, with a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, up 14.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [3][4]. - The cobalt segment is expected to see positive profit growth in 2025, despite a projected decline in sales volume due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 213,029 million yuan and a net profit of 13,532 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin [3][7]. - The company’s copper production reached 650,000 tons, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top ten global producers [4]. - The average copper price in 2024 reached a historical high of 9,268.9 USD/ton, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-on-year [5]. Production and Inventory - The company successfully ramped up production at major projects, achieving a total copper production capacity of 600,000 tons in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company held significant inventories, including 100,000 tons of copper and 42,000 tons of cobalt [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates net profits of 14,875 million yuan, 17,150 million yuan, and 19,942 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.80, and 0.93 yuan per share [6][12].