张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 核心通胀回落，"鹰派"立场仍难改变 ——2024 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 12 月，CPI 同比继续回调上行 0.2pct 至+2.9%，环比上涨幅度也持续扩大，为 +0.4%，前值为 0.3%。 本月，美国核心 CPI（除去食品和能源）同比和环比较上月有所回落，分别为 3.2% 和 0.3%，均优于预期中值。激发市场乐观情绪。当地时间 1 月 15 日，美股三大 股指涨幅明显，其中，纳斯达克指数日涨 2.45%，标普 500 日涨 1.83%，道琼斯 工业指数日涨 1.65%。 核心商品：12 月，核心商品通胀同比负增长有所回落，录得-0.5%，前值为-0.7%； 环比通胀变化不大，录得 0.1%，前值为 0.3%。分类型来看，本月，新交通工具、 二手汽车和卡车、服装、医疗护理同比除医疗护理外均有所回温为-0.4%、-3.4%、 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 1 ...

德邦股份 20250113 摘要 Q&A 德邦股份作为快运行业的龙头，曾经一度陷入电商困境的原因是什么？ 德邦股份陷入电商困境的原因主要有两方面。一方面是外部竞争环境的变化。自 2018 年起，包括京东物流、顺丰在内的大型物流公司纷纷进入中高端快运市场， 导致行业竞争加剧。此外，低端快递公司通过加盟模式扩展货量，也进一步加剧 了市场竞争。另一方面，公司内部管理出现问题。从 2017 年到 2021 年，公司实 施轮值 CEO 制度，管理层频繁变动，战略执行和内部管理出现波动。同时，公司 在战略上错位，将更多精力聚焦于快递业务，而非其核心产品快运业务。这些因 • 德邦股份曾因外部竞争加剧（京东物流、顺丰等进入中高端快运市场）和 内部管理问题（轮值 CEO 制度导致战略执行波动，资源错配）导致业绩下 滑，陷入电商困境。 • 2023 年以来，宏观经济需求疲软压制德邦业绩，但 2024 年 9 月底以来宏 观经济政策转向积极，为德邦带来增长机遇。中高端快运市场已形成德邦、 顺丰、京东物流三足鼎立的格局。 • 德邦股份近年来积极调整内部管理，稳定管理层，重新聚焦中高端快运核 心业务，提升运营效率和服务质量，利润分位数 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：钟表珠宝 当前价格（港元）：288.40 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 恒 生 指 数 对 比 1M 2M 3M -57% 0% 57% 114% 171% 228% 286% 343% 400% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 老铺黄金 恒生指数 绝对涨幅(%) 47.29 43.61 75.68 相对涨幅(%) 53.04 50.79 82.44 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《老铺黄金：24H1 业绩高增长，产 品持续迭代提升品牌效能》，2024.9.3 2.《老铺黄金（6181.HK）： 古法传承，奢品营运》，2024.7.28 老铺黄金(06181.HK) 2025 年 01 月 10 日 老铺黄金：高端黄金奢品，比预 期更乐观单击或点击此处输入文字。 投资要点 短期有何变化？渠道扩张+营销活动，门店动销火热： 证券分析师 易丁依 | 主要财务指标 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表(百万元) ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the specialized air conditioning sector, with a strong growth momentum and a comprehensive layout in liquid cooling technology, which is expected to benefit from the AI wave [4][5] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% from 2020 to 2023, despite a slight decline in net profit due to increased investment in overseas markets and liquid cooling technology [4][22] - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of $10.2 billion by 2028 [4] Summary by Sections 1. Leadership in Specialized Air Conditioning - The company has expanded its product line in specialized air conditioning, including data service air conditioning, industrial air conditioning, special air conditioning, and public and commercial air conditioning [12][13] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 27.6% of the shares, which supports strategic decision-making [15][18] - Revenue has steadily increased from 1.467 billion yuan in 2020 to 2.511 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [4][22] 2. AI-Driven Intelligent Computing Center Construction - The specialized air conditioning market has broad applications, including data service industries, industrial sectors, special environments, and public buildings [41][45] - The construction of intelligent computing centers is accelerating, with the number of standard racks in use in China reaching 8.1 million by the end of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [48] - The average Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of computing centers has improved to 1.48, indicating better energy efficiency [50] 3. Advanced Layout in Liquid Cooling - The company has been researching liquid cooling technology since 2011 and has established one of the earliest commercial liquid cooling micro-module data centers in China [4][12] - The company’s liquid cooling systems are designed to meet the increasing cooling demands of high-density racks, with a focus on energy efficiency and adaptability [4][12] - The liquid cooling market is expected to become mainstream due to its advantages over traditional air cooling systems, particularly in meeting PUE requirements [53] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.83 billion yuan, 3.64 billion yuan, and 4.62 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 12.8%, 28.5%, and 27.0% [4][5] - Net profits are expected to reach 162 million yuan, 265 million yuan, and 336 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.1%, 63.9%, and 27.0% [4][5] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is lower than the average of comparable companies, indicating potential for profit growth in the AI liquid cooling industry [4][5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《供给端约束预期强化，关注制冷 剂 、 涤 纶 长 丝 、 维 生 素 E 》， 2024.12.22 2.《涤纶长丝行业更新：高质量发展 倡议出台，看好长周期格局优化》， 2024.12.22 涤纶长丝行业深度：供需预期再 纠偏，周期弹性被低估 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 引入：涤纶长丝作为本轮周期中供给侧率先出现收缩信号的化工品之一，备受市场 关注，"一口价模式"的推出也激发了市场上的广泛争议。本文，我们将通过复盘 本轮行业自律尝试的始末与历史上三轮周期中的盈利表现展开研究。 供需预期再纠偏： 基础化工 2025 年 01 月 10 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 一口价模式已破裂？产业进程非一蹴而就。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][62]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as one of the leading players in the Jiangsu liquor market, benefiting from a rich historical background and a diverse product matrix that spans various price segments [4][9][15]. - The Jiangsu liquor market is projected to reach approximately 625 billion yuan in 2023, with a strong demand for medium-strength liquor, indicating significant growth potential for the company [27][28]. - The company is strategically focusing on expanding its market presence both within Jiangsu and nationally, utilizing a "3+4" strategy to penetrate surrounding markets effectively [49][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a deep-rooted history in liquor production, originating from the Han Dynasty, and has evolved through various mergers and acquisitions [9][12]. - The local government holds a significant stake in the company, aligning employee interests with corporate performance [12]. 2. Product and Channel Strategy - The product portfolio is extensive, covering all price ranges and catering to various consumer scenarios, with a focus on high-end and medium-strength liquor [15][22]. - The company is enhancing its distribution channels through a grid-like, flat, and refined approach, which has led to a substantial increase in the number of distributors and sales personnel [18][19]. 3. Market Potential - The Jiangsu market still has room for growth, particularly in the Suzhong and Sunan regions, which are expected to drive future sales [45]. - The company is also implementing a national expansion strategy, focusing on key provinces and cities to build a consumer base before expanding further [49][52]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 11.87 billion, 13.40 billion, and 15.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 12.8%, and 12.5% respectively [4][62]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 3.63 billion, 4.01 billion, and 4.67 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 15.7%, 10.4%, and 16.6% [4][62].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 《CPI 缘何显著低于预期？——2024 年 11 月通胀数据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求，价格有望 进一步趋稳——2024 年 10 月通胀数 据点评》 《国内需求叠加产业需求，PPI 筑底 反弹可期——2024 年 9 月通胀数据 点评》 《猪价推升 CPI，PPI 关注铜油钢— —2024 年 8 月通胀数据点评》 2025 年 01 月 09 日 2024 年通胀答卷 ——2024 年 12 月通胀数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：2024 年 12 月 CPI 同比回落，PPI 同比回升。CPI 同比读数持续回落 主因降温不及往年→鲜活食品价格下降，非食品方面，国际油价同比降幅收窄+增 产计划暂缓→能源价格同比降幅收窄、汽车"价格战"→燃油小汽车价格上行、临 近元旦→机票价格上涨。PPI 高频数据与 PPI 读数存在差异或存 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 新集能源(601918.SH) 2025 年 01 月 09 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元)：6.75 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 71% 86% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 新集能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -15.73 | -18.67 | -22.86 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -11.10 | -11.00 | -11.89 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《新集能源（601918.SH）：盈利稳 健，成长可期》，2024.10.26 2.《新集能源（601918.SH）：吨煤毛 利同比高增，煤电一体未来可期》， 2024.7.31 3.《新 ...