Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that operators are continuously directing capital expenditures towards computing power, which is essential for the ongoing development of computing infrastructure [3][4] - There is a sustained demand on the end-user side, ensuring a long-term narrative for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) [3][4] - The report highlights the normal progression of AIDC construction projects and the growing domestic industry chain that warrants attention [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Operators' capital expenditures are increasingly focused on computing power, with significant improvements in computing infrastructure. The three major operators have reported steady advancements in their computing capabilities and have committed to increasing capital spending in this area. For instance, China Unicom's smart business revenue reached 82.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while China Mobile's cloud revenue hit 100.4 billion RMB, growing by 20.4% [3][4][9] - The computing infrastructure of operators is gradually being enhanced, with China Mobile's general computing power reaching 8.5 EFLOPS and intelligent computing power at 29.2 EFLOPS in 2024. China Telecom's "Xirang" platform has integrated with 50 computing partners, achieving a total of 62 EFLOPS [3][4][9] - Capital expenditures for computing are expected to continue rising, with China Unicom forecasting a 28% increase in computing investments for 2025. China Mobile anticipates a slight increase in its budget for computing resources despite an overall decrease in capital spending [3][4][9] Industry News - China Telecom's 2024 annual report indicates a continued focus on computing power, with total revenue of 523.6 billion RMB, a 3.1% increase year-on-year. The company plans to invest 836 billion RMB in capital expenditures for 2025, with a significant portion directed towards digital infrastructure [3][4][13] - Global investments in AI data centers are projected to approach 3 trillion RMB this year, driven by major tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon, which are expected to invest 371 billion USD in 2025, a 44% increase from the previous year [3][4][14] - Shanghai aims to achieve a computing scale of 200 EFLOPS by 2027, with a focus on developing a comprehensive ecosystem for the AI cloud industry [3][4][16] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between China Mobile and Alibaba to enhance their AI data center capabilities, indicating a collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises in the computing sector [3][4][17] Weekly Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector experienced a decline of 3.54% this week, underperforming compared to major indices. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the AIDC and related industry chains [3][4][18] - The report recommends monitoring companies such as China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom, as well as other firms involved in the AIDC ecosystem [3][4][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a focus on the coal-coke-steel value chain as high furnace production resumes [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price rebounds in coal and coke due to improved macroeconomic expectations and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4] - The coal market is currently experiencing a phase of price differentiation, with thermal coal prices declining while coking coal prices remain stable [9][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of March 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 665 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (-0.89%) from the previous week, while the Q5000 price is 592 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton (+0.7%) [9][10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The railway input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 7.44% to 524,000 tons, and port throughput rose by 15.38% to 570,000 tons [36][38] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports decreased by 1.94% to 73.69 million tons, with Qinhuangdao's inventory down 4.66% to 6.95 million tons [44][47] 2. Market Review - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.1% compared to a 0.4% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [59] 3. Important Events Review - The report notes significant developments, including the Indian government's auction of 28 coal mines aimed at enhancing coal production and infrastructure development [68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a focus on the coal-coke-steel value chain [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price rebounds in coal and coke due to macroeconomic improvements and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of thermal coal has decreased, while coking coal prices remain stable. As of March 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 665 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (-0.89%) from the previous week [9][10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: There has been an increase in railway input volumes, with Qinhuangdao port's railway input rising by 7.44% to 524,000 tons [36][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports has decreased, with southern ports showing a reduction of 2.21% [44][47] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.1% compared to a 0.4% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [59] 3. Recent Important Events - The report notes significant developments in the coal sector, including the initiation of a new round of coal mine auctions in India aimed at increasing production capacity [68]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025年3月28日 | | | ● 核心观点:2025年政府工作报告定调积极,1-2月一般公共预算支出处于历史高 位实现开门红,在此基础上,我们尝试构建省份财政跟踪框架,便于衡量财政数据 的重点任务进展。 · 2025年财政预算报告定调积极 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱:liants@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 · 2025年1-2月财政开门红 · 2025年财政主要任务及各省实施进度 请务必阔读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ● 第一本账:财政收入增速目标设置较为严谨。2025年全国一般公共预算收入增长 0.1%,达2020年疫情外最低收入增速。整体来看,收入增速目标设置较为严谨。 ● 第二本账:对调动广义财政积极性有重要作用。2025年全国政府性基金预算收入 6.2万亿,增长 0.7%。三大逻辑贯穿财政第二本账:一是规模增加;二是支持范围 增加;三是政策效果增加。 ● 赤字率:隐含名义 GDP 增速可能在 5%左右。4%的赤字率对应的赤字为 5.66 万 亿,对应的 ...

Group 1: Overview of the Mar-a-Lago Accord - The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" aims to address the long-term overvaluation of the US dollar, which has led to economic imbalances in the US economy[2] - Proposed tools for a weaker dollar policy include multilateral currency agreements, replacing "century bonds," taxing foreign holdings of US debt, and actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves[2][11] - The concept of the dollar cycle indicates that the current phase is the latter half of the third dollar cycle, with the dollar expected to weaken post-2020, although it has shown strength since 2022[2][23] Group 2: Conditions for Dollar Weakness - A necessary condition for a weaker dollar is a weakening US economy coupled with the emergence of new global growth poles[2][25] - The political and social costs of intentionally weakening the economy may deter the implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Accord[2][26] - The ability of allies to coordinate currency policies is limited compared to the past, making it difficult to replicate the success of the Plaza Accord[2][28] Group 3: Challenges to Implementing the Accord - The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" faces significant challenges, including conflicts of interest with allies regarding tariffs and defense spending[2][39] - The US's focus on domestic issues may force European allies to pursue defense autonomy, complicating cooperation[2][46] - The potential for increased inflation and debt issues in the US could undermine the effectiveness of the proposed policies[2][51]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 三维化学(002469.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 28 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：建筑装饰/专业工程 当前价格(元)：8.94 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% 0% 29% 57% 86% 114% 143% 171% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 三维化学 沪深300 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 15.87 20.99 17.74 相对涨幅(%) 16.90 18.74 19.45 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：正丙醇涨 价带来弹性，新疆煤化工赋予机遇》， 2024.11.15 2.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：工程业务 履约进度放缓拖累业绩，拟中期分红 约 6500 万元》，2024.8.27 三维化学(002469.SZ)：全年业 绩符合预期，分红比例大幅提升 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：3 月 26 日，公司发布 2024 年 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 三维化学(002469.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 28 日 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% 0% 29% 57% 86% 114% 143% 171% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 三维化学 沪深300 买入（维持） 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 15.87 20.99 17.74 相对涨幅(%) 16.90 18.74 19.45 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 所属行业：建筑装饰/专业工程 当前价格(元)：8.94 相关研究 1.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：正丙醇涨 价带来弹性，新疆煤化工赋予机遇》， 2024.11.15 2 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2.《三维化学（002469.SZ）：工程业务 履约进度放缓拖累业绩，拟中期分红 约 6500 万元》，2024.8.27 三维化学(002469.SZ)：全年业 绩符合预期，分红比例大幅提升 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律 ...

资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 卓越新能(688196.SH) 2025 年 03 月 27 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：46.32 研究助理 证券分析师 王友舜 王华炳 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -46% -23% 0% 23% 46% 69% 91% 114% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 卓越新能 沪深300 | 绝对涨幅(%) | 7.35 | 21.25 | 30.88 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅(%) | 7.51 | 18.99 | 32.55 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 卓越新能（688196.SH）：从危到机， 酯基生物柴油龙头的进击之路！ 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 卓越新能：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱。公司是我国第一家从事废油脂制备生物 柴油 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 卓越新能(688196.SH) 2025 年 03 月 27 日 买入（首次） 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：46.32 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 卓越新能：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱。公司是我国第一家从事废油脂制备生物 柴油的技术研发并率先实现工业化生产的企业，围绕"生物质能化一体化"产业布局 持续加大科研投入，基于废弃油脂和生物柴油开发应用的产业链不断丰富，产品附 加值和废弃油脂的综合利用率不断提升。截至 2024 年 6 月，公司生物柴油产能规 模约 50 万吨，生物基材料产能规模达 9 万吨，生物柴油产量和出口量连续多年位 列国内同类企业前列。 生物柴油紧平衡格局延续，关注原料替代与贸易突围。酯基生物柴油是当前应用最 广泛的生物柴油类型，占比超 85%。原料替代方面，废弃油脂因其减排效益最优， 并不占用耕地面积，且欧美国家已 ...

2025 年 03 月 27 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 政策传导显效，工企补库扩表 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：1-2 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入继续改善，利润降幅较去年 1-12 月收窄。1-2 月工业企业呈现量仍强、价磨底、利润率再度转弱的盈利格局，当前 工企利润主要拖累在于利润率，虽然有春节等季节性因素的影响，但从绝对水平看 当前工企利润率仍位于 2019 年以来同期低位。不过库存周期和企业杠杆率均透露 积极信号，库存增速结束连续 3 个月的回落，工企负债增速进一步上行，后续随着 地产和消费对于经济形成的掣肘逐步减弱，政策发力是否能够带动内需明显回暖 是库存周期上行能否形成的关键，与此同时，伴随着企业微观杠杆率延续同比反 弹，企业端宽信用若能够进一步加力提效，企业加杠杆 ...