环球市场动态 美 国 4 月 CPI 同 比 增 速 可 能 是 今 年 低 点 股 票 周二中国市场出现回调，A 股沪指 上涨但市场缺乏持续性，港股低开 低走恒生科技指数大跌；欧股小幅 上涨，特朗普将矛头转向欧洲令投 资者趋于谨慎；美国 4 月份 CPI 低 于预期提振股市，标指今年至今重 回正增长，英伟达带领科技股大涨。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国通胀数据较预期温和，加上中 美关税暂缓利好情绪持续，周二国 际油价续涨逾 2%。市场对降息预 期有所升温，美元指数回落，支持 金价造好。 固 定 收 益 美国 4 月 CPI 弱于预期，但关税对 通胀影响仍未显现。市场风险偏好 回升，短期美债收益率小幅下跌， 长端收益率微涨，整体曲线变动不 大。亚洲债市走势相对分化，中国 投资级债券利差变动不大，利差已 回到历史最低水平范围。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2025 年 5 月 14 日 欧 美 市 场 | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | | | 主要指数 | | | | | | | | -- ...

Market Overview - The US-China trade negotiations have made substantial progress, leading to a general rise in global assets, with the A-share market opening high and the military industry sector remaining strong[3] - The Hang Seng Index surged nearly 700 points, while European markets reached new highs, and the Nasdaq entered a technical bull market with a 4.35% increase[3] Trade Agreement Impact - A temporary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs was reached, with US tariffs on China expected to drop to around 44%[5] - The agreement is anticipated to support exports to the US and ASEAN countries, bolstering foreign trade in the coming quarters[5] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 1,160 points (2.81%), the S&P 500 rose by 3.26%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.35%[8] - The Golden Dragon China Index surged by 5.4%, with major Chinese stocks like JD, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba seeing increases of 5.7% to 6.5%[8] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, reaching a two-week high, while gold prices fell by over 3% due to reduced market risk aversion[4][26] - The US dollar index increased by 1.44%, impacting gold prices negatively, which fell to $3,228 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield up by 11.9 basis points to 4.01% and the 10-year yield up by 9.2 basis points to 4.47%[28] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 5-10 basis points, with notable performance in Chinese investment-grade bonds[28] Sector Performance - In the US, technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and internet sectors, are expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions[8] - The A-share market saw significant gains in aerospace and military sectors, with stocks like AVIC and Chengfei Integration hitting their daily limits[15]

Group 1: China Market Focus - The report highlights the importance of policy packages in stabilizing market expectations amid trade tensions, with a focus on stocks like Sungrow Power and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [9][15][22] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the energy storage system (ESS) sector, particularly for Sungrow Power, due to increasing demand for grid upgrades in Europe [23] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is noted for its strong innovation capabilities, with expectations for record revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a significant share of innovative drug sales [23] Group 2: Japan Market Focus - The report indicates that Japan's economic growth is being hampered by trade wars, with a focus on stable high-dividend stocks [30][32] - The anticipated performance of high-dividend stocks such as KDDI and MS&AD Insurance is highlighted, as they are expected to continue to perform well despite economic uncertainties [41] - The report mentions that if Japan cannot secure tariff reductions from the U.S., it may face significant political risks [41] Group 3: Australia Market Focus - The report discusses the Labor Party's significant election victory and its historical correlation with strong performance in the energy and materials sectors [46][50] - Northern Star and Lynas Rare Earths are identified as key stocks that may benefit from increased demand for resources, particularly in the context of global shifts away from reliance on Chinese supply [56] - The report notes that historically, the Australian stock market has seen an average increase of 7.5% in the year following a Labor victory, with energy and materials sectors performing particularly well [56]

环球市场动态 关 税 对 内 地 PPI 的 影 响 开 始 显 现 股 票 中国市场周五表现平平，市场观望 周末中美贸易谈判，A 股震荡走低， 港股恒指录得七连涨但恒科指略显 低迷；英美贸易协定提振欧洲股市， 德国 DAX 指数再创历史新高；美股 小幅下跌，整体观望情绪浓厚，投 资者静待周六开始的美中贸易谈 判。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场憧憬中美两国上周六进行的贸 易谈判，加上中东局势紧张，支持 油价上周五造好。美元指数回落， 加上中国实金需求良好，支持金价 上涨。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债变动不大，缺乏新 的推动因素，市场呈现相对温和谨 慎情绪，中美均以「实质性进展」 描绘日内瓦谈判，令紧张的贸易局 势得以缓解，美债今天开盘下跌。 亚洲债市风险偏好回温，利差普遍 收窄 2-3 个基点，中国债市表现突 出。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 5 月 12 日 中 ▪ 2025 年 4 月物价延续偏弱，CPI 与 PPI 均符合市场预期。关税对 PPI 的负面影响率先在上游资源品领域显现， 全球需求预期转弱叠加 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with military stocks leading the market amid the India-Pakistan conflict; the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3,352 points[16] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a six-day rise, closing up 0.37%[11] - U.S. and U.K. reached a trade agreement, boosting market sentiment; the Dow Jones increased by 254 points or 0.62%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index rose above 100, increasing by 1.03% to 100.64, while gold prices fell by 2.53% to $3,306 per ounce[27] - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 7-12 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 30-year yield at 4.84%[30] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 7 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with non-core consumer goods leading at +1.35%[9] - In Hong Kong, military stocks surged over 6% due to ongoing tensions, while technology stocks also performed well[11] Trade Developments - The U.S. and U.K. announced a trade agreement, marking the first since the trade war began in April; this has raised hopes for progress in other trade negotiations, including with China[9] - Trump indicated potential tariff reductions on China, which could further influence market dynamics[30] Investment Insights - Global AI capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth forecast adjusted to +64% for 2025, down from +77%, due to ongoing tariff concerns and market uncertainties[8] - Companies like Broadcom, Micron, and Nvidia are recommended for investment due to their resilience against tariff impacts[8]

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds[6] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts, while emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook[11][33] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that new investment rules regarding China are being developed, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions[6] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7% to close at 41,114 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.3% to 17,738 points[11] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose slightly by 0.1% to 22,691 points, supported by PBOC's monetary easing measures[13] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.80% to 3,342.67 points, driven by financial stocks following the announcement of interest rate cuts[18] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 1.73% to $58.07 per barrel, influenced by an unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline inventories[29] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.38% to 99.614, while gold prices decreased by 0.90% to $3,391.9 per ounce following the Fed's announcement[29] - The Chinese yuan traded at 7.228 against the U.S. dollar, showing a slight depreciation of 0.1%[28] Corporate Highlights - Disney reported a significant turnaround with a net profit of $3.275 billion for Q2 2025, compared to a loss of $20 million in the same period last year, leading to a stock price increase of 10.76%[9] - Alibaba is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, reaching approximately 237 billion yuan, with an adjusted EPS growth of 32.5%[16]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a positive start after the May Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% to 3,316.11 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.84% to 10,082.34 points[16] - The international oil price rebounded over 3% from a four-year low, with NYMEX crude oil rising 3.43% to $59.09 per barrel, driven by signs of a potential decline in U.S. production[27] Economic Indicators - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending exceeding 180 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase[16] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high in March, raising concerns about economic stability[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling 389 points (0.95%) to 40,829 points, and the S&P 500 dropping 0.77% to 5,606 points[9] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 index rising for the 16th consecutive day, closing at 8,597 points, while the German DAX index fell 0.41% to 23,249 points[9] Commodity Trends - The commodity market outlook remains weak, with expectations of "oversupply" if OPEC+ continues to increase production, potentially leading to downward pressure on oil prices[6] - Gold is expected to outperform copper and oil in the commodity market, maintaining a strong position amid economic uncertainties[6] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.59% to 99.238, influenced by low U.S. Treasury yields and market expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[27] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, with the exchange rate at 1.137, reflecting a 0.5% increase[26] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. Treasury market showed strong demand, particularly for the 10-year Treasury auction, which had an indirect bid ratio of 91.1%, the highest since February 2023[29] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was reported at 4.29%, down 4.9 basis points from the previous day[29]

Market Overview - U.S. economic data shows resilience despite tariff impacts, with Q1 GDP growth turning negative due to increased imports[6] - April's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with unemployment rate stable, indicating a healthy job market[6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased from four to three times this year, with the Fed likely to maintain rates in May[6] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.24% to 41,218.8, and the S&P 500 down 0.64% to 5,650.4[9] - European markets showed varied performance, with Germany's DAX rising 1.12% to 23,344.5, marking a nine-day winning streak[9] - In Asia, Vietnam's market led gains with a 1.1% increase, while Taiwan's market fell 1.2% to 20,533[22] Currency and Commodity Trends - Asian currencies strengthened against the USD, with the Japanese yen leading G-10 currencies[4] - International oil prices fell nearly 2% due to OPEC+ production increase concerns, while gold prices rose over 2% amid ongoing trade war risks[4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 8%[27] Fixed Income Insights - U.S. Treasury yields rose for the third consecutive day, with the 10-year yield at 4.34%, reflecting reduced rate cut expectations[31] - Corporate bond issuance remains active, with significant new debt offerings from major companies like Apple and General Motors[31] Sector Highlights - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw strong performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08%[11] - The travel market showed robust demand during the May Day holiday, with domestic tourism expected to exceed 350 million trips, a year-on-year increase of over 15%[18]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations of maintaining rates at 4.25-4.5% during the May meeting, while the market anticipates up to two rate cuts within the year [12][13][25] - Major financial stocks like Bank of America and Citigroup are showing strength, despite ongoing pressures in the cyclical and consumer sectors [10][14][18] - Bank of America is considered undervalued, with a projected net interest income growth of 6-7% for 2025, and a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) nearing 15% by 2026 [19] - Citigroup is optimistic about its stock buyback prospects, having repurchased $1.75 billion in shares in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued buybacks in Q2 [20] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is expected to slow down, with a projected GDP growth of 0.8% for 2025, down from 1.1% in the previous year, due to increased challenges from tax hikes and external uncertainties [31][37] - The Bank of England is anticipated to have increased room for rate cuts, with potential reductions expected in the coming months [34][36] - Major UK banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered have shown strong Q1 performance, with HSBC's pre-tax profit exceeding market expectations by 15% [39] Group 3: China and Hong Kong Market Focus - The report indicates that the Chinese market is likely to see a phase of stock performance driven by themes that are less sensitive to earnings, with companies like Tencent Holdings and China Duty Free Group highlighted [44][70] - Tencent is expected to maintain strong growth in its gaming business, with a diverse pipeline of new games set to launch [71] - China Duty Free is positioned favorably amid tariff negotiations, with expectations for improved performance in its Hainan operations [71]

Market Overview - US debt issues present long-term concerns despite no immediate worries, with credit cracks due to Trump's policies[6] - A mixed performance in global stock markets, with the US awaiting earnings reports and non-farm payroll data[3] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 40,227.6, up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 5,528.8; the Nasdaq fell 0.1% to 17,366.1[8] - European stocks rose, driven by merger news, with the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0.5%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - International oil prices fell over 1%, with NY crude down 1.5% to $62.05 per barrel[26] - The US dollar weakened following poor manufacturing data, with the GBP reaching its strongest level since 2022[26] Fixed Income Insights - US Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 5.5 basis points to 3.75% and the 10-year yield down 2.7 basis points to 4.21%[30] - The upcoming Treasury auction on May 5 is anticipated, but no strong catalysts are supporting the current bond price increases[5] Chinese Market Dynamics - A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.20% to 3,288.41 points amid a lack of specific stimulus measures[15] - The People's Bank of China indicated potential interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in bank stocks[15] Individual Stock Highlights - BYD Electronics reported a 2% increase in Q1 net profit, below expectations, leading to an 8.49% drop in stock price[13] - China Ping An's Q1 net operating profit rose 2.4% to 379 billion yuan, while net profit fell 26.4% to 270 billion yuan[18]