Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - 'Year-on-year' comparison has limited significance, and it's advisable to compare with the same period in 2023. The supply increase in 2025 compared to Q1 2024 was expected. The comparison with 2023 shows that the decline in quarterly pig存栏 has significantly narrowed, indicating a continuous recovery in Q3 2025. The pig出栏 and pork production have increased, and the sow存栏 has been above the normal level despite two consecutive months of decline [10][12]. - The current pig production capacity cycle has started the de - capacity process, but it has just begun. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. A significant decline in sow prices is needed to enter the next price - rising cycle [13]. - The main trading logic of live hog futures this year is the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is basically fulfilled, it is trading the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 'Year - on - year' effective meaning is insufficient, focus on the comparison with the same period in 2023 - In Q1 - Q3 2025, the national production of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 3.0%, 3.3%, and 7.2% respectively, while mutton production decreased by 4.3%. The hog出栏 was 529.92 million, an increase of 1.8% year - on - year, and the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a 3.0% increase. At the end of Q3, the national hog存栏 was 436.8 million, up 2.3% year - on - year, and the sow存栏 was 40.35 million, down 0.7% year - on - year [3][4]. - Comparing with 2023, the hog存栏 at the end of Q1 - Q3 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year but decreased by 1.2% compared to 2023. The hog出栏 increased by 1.8% year - on - year but decreased by 1.3% compared to 2023. The pork production increased by 3% year - on - year and 1.56% compared to 2023. In Q3 2025, the hog出栏 was 163.73 million, a 1.2% increase compared to Q3 2023, and the pork production was 13.48 million tons, a 6.2% increase [10][12]. 2. Questions and Thoughts on the Pig Production Capacity Cycle Thinking 1: What stage is the current pig production capacity cycle in? - The previous report pointed out that the current pig price was in the second half of the second half of the epidemic - driven passive de - capacity cycle, and active/passive de - capacity had not started. Now, the sow存栏 has decreased for two consecutive months, indicating the start of de - capacity. The de - capacity has just begun, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the ratio of sow price to hog price is still at 77%, which needs to drop to 50% - 60% for effective de - capacity [13]. Thinking 2: What is the main trading logic of live hog futures? - This year, the futures market mainly traded the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is fulfilled, it trades the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16].

煤焦数据快讯-2025年9月原煤产量数据 2020-2025年中国原煤月度累计产量(亿吨) 2020-2025年中国原煤月度产量(亿吨) 47.6 50. 0 5.00 45.0 35. 7 40. 0 4. 50 35.0 4.1 30. 0 4. 00 25. 0 20. 0 3.9 15.0 3.50 3.8- 10. 0 5.0 3.00 0. 0 2. 50 12月 4月 7月 8月 9月 11月 3月 5月 6月 10月 2022年 2024年 -- 2025年 2024年 ·2021年 -2023年 ·2021年 2022年 2023年 2025年 国家统计局最新数据显示，9月原煤生产降幅收窄。9月份规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降1.8%，降幅比8月份收窄1.4个百分点;日均产量 1372万吨。1—9月份,规上工业原煤产量35.7亿吨，同比增长2.0%。 个人半期货有限公司 数据来源:国家统计局,格林大华期货研究院整理 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可 2011 1288号 研究员：侯建 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询: Z0011402 联系电话： (010)56711796 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector is "Slightly Bearish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable, but the supply is expected to increase due to holiday factors, and the demand is differentiated. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but attention should be paid to the volatility pressure brought by the hedging orders when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The price of log futures has corrected. The closing price of the main 2601 contract is 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs is 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from last week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from last week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The domestic log market has a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. Affected by holiday factors, the arrival volume is expected to increase to 550,500 cubic meters, with obvious concentrated arrival characteristics [1] - The demand side is differentiated. The average daily shipment volume in Shandong has slightly declined, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has decreased due to sufficient pre - holiday restocking. The current inventory in Jiangsu can maintain a 15 - 20 - day production cycle [1] - In the week of September 26, the inventory of softwood logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters, including a 40,000 - cubic - meter decrease in radiata pine and a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease in North American timber. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 69,700 cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 8,000 cubic meters [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

Group 1: Report Core Information - As of October 18, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 231.62 tons, with a slight inventory build - up of 17 tons [3] - Inventory data from July 5, 2025, to October 18, 2025, shows various inventory levels and their month - on - month changes, such as on July 5, 2025, the inventory was 375 tons with a decrease of 16 tons compared to the previous period [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the apple variety in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Apple futures prices have corrected, and the main contract has shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract is 8625 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The overall market shows a game situation where fruit farmers are waiting and merchants are purchasing on demand. New - season late - Fuji large - scale trading still depends on the coloring and ripening process. It is recommended to go long on the AP2601 contract on dips [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a) Market Review - Apple futures prices have corrected, and the main contract has shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract is 8625 yuan/ton, with a 1.35% increase [1]. b) Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late - Fuji 80 (striped red, first and second - grade) is 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin; for bagged late - Fuji over 80 (striped red, general goods), it is 3.00 - 3.50 yuan/jin; for bagged late - Fuji over 80 third - grade, it is 2.50 - 2.80 yuan/jin; and for striped 80 first and second - grade, it is 4.10 - 4.50 yuan/jin. - In Shaanxi, the price of bagged late - Fuji starting from 70 semi - commercial is 4.70 - 4.80 yuan/jin. In the Weinan production area, there is a small amount of merchant - sourced goods left in cold storage, mainly self - shipped, with little purchase for transfer, and the market is stable. The current price of late - Fuji over 75 general goods is about 4.00 yuan/jin. - In Gansu, the price of late - Fuji over 75 mountain semi - commercial fruit in Renda Town's inventory is about 4.50 yuan/jin [1]. c) Market Logic - Rainfall in apple - producing areas such as Shaanxi, Gansu, and Shandong has ended, and the coloring progress of apples has accelerated. Fruit farmers are picking. Western merchants are concentrated in high - quality producing areas in Gansu and Shaanxi to order high - quality goods, and some Shandong merchants go to Liaoning to purchase. The Liaoning production area has active transactions, with high prices for good goods and prices determined by quality for general goods. The market is slightly differentiated. Overall, there is a game between fruit farmers' waiting and merchants' on - demand purchasing, and large - scale trading of new - season late - Fuji still awaits the coloring and ripening process [1]. d) Trading Strategy - Go long on the AP2601 contract on dips [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The iron ore is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, iron ore oscillated lower and closed down at night [1] 3.2 Important Information - The US 301 investigation and restrictive measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries seriously damage the interests of relevant Chinese industries [1] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 14,961.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.79 tons [1] - Sichuan suspended the old - for - new vehicle subsidy policy starting from October 18 [1] - From January to September 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; the new order volume was 66.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%; as of the end of September, the order - on - hand volume was 242.24 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. China's three major shipbuilding indicators accounted for 53.8%, 67.3%, and 65.2% of the world's total in deadweight tons, and 47.3%, 63.5%, and 58.6% in corrected gross tons respectively, remaining globally leading [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The average daily pig iron output last week was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0059 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.00659 million tons. Pig iron output declined for the second week, still at a relatively high level and showing signs of peaking. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,961.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 320.79 tons [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is expected that iron ore will maintain an oscillating trend. The pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations with stop - loss settings are recommended [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions Review - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% to 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the President of the United States. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Beijing time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead person for China - US economic and trade affairs and Vice - Premier of the State Council, held a video call with US lead persons, US Treasury Secretary Bethent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit range for gold and silver futures. Starting from the closing settlement on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, the daily price limit range for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 14%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 15%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 16% [1] Market Logic - There has been a historic short - squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs in night trading. The willingness to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]

早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘2601合约 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have experienced significant price fluctuations recently. Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% at 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the US President. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] Market Logic - There has been a historical short squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. The night sessions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs [1] - The willingness to hold talks between Ukraine and the US and the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, as well as the agreement to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises in gold and silver recently, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently reasonably undervalued and attractive to foreign investors. The technology sector remains the most promising and certain area in the long - run, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking volume and a continued decrease in selling pressure. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,618 points, up 12 points or 0.26%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,019 points, up 17 points or 0.59%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,231 points, down 62 points or - 0.86%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,401 points, down 81 points or - 1.09%. Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, communication equipment ETF, energy ETF, bank ETF, and dividend state - owned enterprise ETF led the gains, while rare earth ETF, steel ETF, and robot 50ETF led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, coal mining, insurance, national banks, coke processing, and oil and gas extraction indices led the gains, while rare metals, forestry, metal new materials, precious metals, and wind power equipment indices led the losses. The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 50 index stock index futures was 1.5 billion yuan. [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of the end of September, China's M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month. The balance of narrow - sense money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, indicating accelerated monetary activity. - An investment fund AIP jointly established by BlackRock, NVIDIA, and Microsoft announced a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned, a data center giant under Macquarie Asset Management, one of the largest data center transactions in history. - The demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, exceeding expectations by 39%. TSMC's CEO said that AI demand remains strong and will be robust throughout 2025. - Morgan Stanley pointed out that high - quality electric vehicles have become the industry standard, and the real innovation opportunities in the automotive industry lie in the breakthrough of the AI ecosystem, proposing the "3A" opportunities of autonomous driving, AI embodiment, and AI data centers. - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist said that although the valuation of the technology sector has risen, it has not reached the level of a historical bubble. The current rise of technology stocks is mainly driven by fundamental growth. - As of October 14, the total scale of gold - themed ETFs, including commodity - type and stock - type, was close to 210 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan of funds this year. Since October 9, the net inflow of gold - themed ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that the employment level generally remained stable, but most regions reported that more employers were reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in AI. - Options trading linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showed that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its meeting later this month or in December. - The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) was suddenly used for $6.75 billion, the highest non - quarter - end level since the pandemic, exposing a rapid market funding gap and raising concerns about the next liquidity crisis. [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. On October 10, the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs totaled 31.488 billion yuan, second only to April 7 and 8 this year. On October 13, over 20 billion yuan of funds entered the market, and the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs was 24.614 billion yuan. Many securities firms said that despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, which is attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against US dollar asset risks. [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were narrowly fluctuating, and the growth indices were adjusting, with the market in a defensive mode. The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October, and the market is betting on a 50 - basis - point cut in December. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. In the future, the technology sector remains the most promising and certain area, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. The market is in a defensive state, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. - Stock index option trading: Seize the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 300 index. [3]