Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05%. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.43%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 1.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 2.73 basis points to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 2.45 basis points to 1.88%, and the 30 - year rose 2.82 basis points to 2.31% [1] - The US Supreme Court announced that it will make a ruling on the Trump tariff case this Friday (January 9th) [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce: All dual - use items are prohibited from being exported to Japanese military users [1] Market Logic - China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line, with the previous value at 49.2%. In December, the production index was 51.7%, and the new orders index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index in December was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line, compared to 49.5% in the previous month. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's fourth - quarter meeting pointed out that it should grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation based on domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations. In December 2025, the central bank net injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, conducting treasury bond trading operations for the third consecutive month. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally, and closed with a bald阳线. It closed 1.59% higher than the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan, continuing to expand from 2.57 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened significantly lower and consolidated at a low level throughout the day [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周二铁矿收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、上周（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日），10 个重点城市新建商品房成交 | | | | （签约）面积总计 233.94 万平方米，环比下降 20.3%，同比下降 10.9%。 | | | | 2、河南：力争 2026 年第一季度新开工项目 1500 个左右。 | | | | 3、据国际船舶网跟踪：2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 4 日，全球船厂共接获 | | | | 31+4 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 24+4 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 1 艘新船订 | | | | 单；芬兰和美国船厂也接获相关新船订单。 | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 偏多 | 4、2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 7 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、达利欧称，AI 热潮目前已进入泡沫初期阶段。2025 年美国股市表现显著落后于 | | | | | 非美股市及黄金资产。新任美联储主席大概率会倾向于压低名义利率与实际利率。 | | | | | 这一举措虽会对资产价格形成支撑，但也会进一步吹大泡沫。 | | | | | 2、CME 交易所数据显示，COMEX 白银 2601 合约累计交割量已达 1800 万盎司，已超 | | | | | 过去年 1 月全月的水平（1200 万盎司）。根据目前交割进度估算，预计今年 1 月 | | | | | COMEX 白银交割量可能达到 4000 万盎司左右。 | | | | | 3、AI 的胜负在于谁能把成本压到最低。英 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have a risk of spilling over, and methanol continues to operate strongly. The methanol market is facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of the spill - over of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset [1][3] - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton [3] - The US attacked Venezuela over the weekend, escalating the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the direct impact on methanol is relatively limited, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the situation in the Middle East [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - As of the time of publication, the main methanol contract has risen by more than 3%, approaching the 2,300 yuan/ton mark. According to market news, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Fundamental Conditions - The port methanol quotation today is 2,260 yuan/ton. The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend escalated the geopolitical conflict risk. Although the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected, there is still a risk of spill - over, mainly concerning the Middle East situation [3] - Both ports and inland areas accumulated inventories last week. The import volume upon arrival is expected to decrease after mid - January. With the restart plan of the Sangjia olefin plant, methanol still faces a situation of weak reality and strong expectations [3] Operation Suggestions - Hold long positions and do not chase high prices. Be vigilant about the emotional impact of unexpected events [4]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 6 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 525 元/吨，日涨幅 0.11%，夜盘收 5248 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5269 元/吨，日涨幅 0.06，夜盘收 5260 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5282 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5280~5360 元/吨，下调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~5200 元/吨，下调 10 | | | | | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 元/吨，个别下调 10 元/吨。。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and fell in night trading. The market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation in the near - term, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices may回调. Market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on the first trading day after the holiday and fell in night trading [1] 3.2 Important Information - On January 5th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport stated that efforts will be made to implement the renewal and digital - intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [1] - On January 5th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on organizing a pilot project of "government procurement to support green and low - carbon development of highways" [1] - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons compared to the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 0.969 million tons compared to the previous period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the average daily hot metal output was 2.2743 million tons, an increase of 0.0085 million tons compared to the previous week, increasing for the second consecutive week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased seasonally in December, reaching a record high. During the holiday, the iron ore shipping volume decreased seasonally, while the arrival volume increased. Ports continued to accumulate inventory, and port inventory was at a high level. Steel mills' iron ore inventory also increased, and there was an expectation of restocking later, which would support iron ore prices [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the near - term, the market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices will回调, and the market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - After the holiday, rebar and hot-rolled coils opened high and closed low, and closed down at night. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The macro - situation has a neutral impact on the market before and after the holiday. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will remain volatile before the winter storage starts. The rebar main contract has a resistance level of 3200 and a support level of 3030. Later, the market may enter the winter storage period with increased demand, and the market may rebound in advance, but the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be small. When winter storage is approaching the end and the Spring Festival is approaching, the market will enter a stage of "high - price but no trading", with both supply and demand shrinking, and the market will become a pure capital - driven market. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils may first fluctuate and then rebound, and investors can try to lay out long positions with stop - losses set, while being cautious about the upside space [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On the first trading day after the holiday, rebar and hot - rolled coils opened high and closed low, and closed down at night [1] 2. Important Information - On January 5th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport stated to vigorously implement the renewal and digital - intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure - On January 5th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on organizing a pilot project of "government procurement to support the green and low - carbon development of highways" - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce promoted the green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new - energy vehicles - In 2025, there were frequent mergers and acquisitions in the steel industry, and many enterprises optimized their layouts through equity acquisitions and asset swaps, accelerating regional integration, including the restructuring of the parent company of Sansteel Group and the expansion of Youfa Steel Pipe Group's territory [1] 3. Market Logic - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The macro - situation has a neutral impact on the market before and after the holiday. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will remain volatile before the winter storage starts. Later, when the market enters the winter storage period, the demand will increase, and the market may rebound in advance, but the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage. When winter storage is approaching the end and the Spring Festival is approaching, the market will enter a stage of "high - price but no trading", with both supply and demand shrinking, and the market will become a pure capital - driven market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils may first fluctuate and then rebound. Investors can try to lay out long positions, set stop - losses, and be cautious about the upside space [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 6 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 月 5 日，元旦假期首日，补跌海外利空，棕榈油领跌植物油板块，豆油和菜籽油 跟随走弱。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7856 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.08%，日增仓 | | | | | 1586 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7730 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.03%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1801 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8488 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.12%，日增 | | | | | 仓 19633 手； | | | | | 棕 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold and silver in the precious metals sector is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 3.00% to $4459.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.74% to $76.51 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.93% at 1001.6 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 3.17% at 18,745 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of January 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1065.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 90.54 tons from the previous day to 16,353.60 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 43.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.2% [1] - The US December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, and the index has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] Market Logic - The December meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflected the dependence of the future interest - rate cut rhythm on economic data and differences in policy paths. The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% [1] - The CME Group raised the margin requirements for precious metals for the second time within a week, increasing the performance margins for gold and silver futures after the close on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the current precious metals market [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of more than $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1] - On January 5, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.33. On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, amplifying geopolitical risks. COMEX gold and COMEX silver both rose sharply on January 5 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to increased short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 06 日星期二 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.18%，收于221 | | | | | 9元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2156元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2257元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌4元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳中偏弱。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2260-2275元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日持平。 | | | | ...