Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction ratio industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite recent challenges [5][3] - Rising raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [1][17] - The report anticipates that the overall gross margin decline for white goods companies will be less than 2 percentage points due to price adjustments and cost-saving measures [1][17] Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, but the rate of decline is improving compared to previous months [2][24] - The cumulative production decline for January and February is estimated at 5%, showing signs of recovery driven by government subsidy policies [2][24] - The report highlights that the demand for white goods is expected to stabilize and recover as the effects of national subsidy policies continue to manifest [2][24] Retail Market Performance - The retail scale of China's home appliance market is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with small appliances showing relatively better performance [2][31] - Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are experiencing significant declines in retail sales, while kitchen small appliances are expected to see growth [2][31] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric in the small appliances sector [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong overseas growth potential and solid domestic performance, particularly those benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][14] Company Profitability Forecasts - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Smart Home, among others [4][50] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies suggest favorable valuations compared to historical averages, supporting the investment thesis [4][50]

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges from rising raw material prices and market competition [1][5][11]. Raw Material Price Impact - Recent increases in copper and aluminum prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of raw material cost increases on gross margins has diminished over time. For instance, during previous cycles from 2008 to 2022, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points in 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and only about 2 percentage points in 2020-2022. The current price increases are expected to have a lesser impact, with an anticipated gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [1][17][18]. Production and Demand Trends - In January and February 2026, the total production of white goods in China was 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%. However, the cumulative production decline for the first two months is expected to be around 5%. The production performance has shown signs of recovery compared to a more than 10% decline in Q4 2025. The demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [2][24]. Retail Market Performance - The retail market for home appliances in China is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with a total retail scale of 893.1 billion yuan. Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are expected to see declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively, while small kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 3.8% [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market position. For white goods, companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Home, and Hisense Home Appliances are highlighted. In the small appliance sector, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and New Treasure are recommended. For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are suggested [3][12][50]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating that Midea Group is expected to have an EPS of 5.84 yuan in 2025 and 6.43 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13 for 2025. Haier Smart Home is projected to have an EPS of 2.27 yuan in 2025 and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [4][50].

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

- The quantitative factors that performed well in the broker gold stock pool over the past month include total market capitalization, single-quarter net profit growth rate, and analyst net upgrade ratio[3][30] - The quantitative factors that performed poorly in the broker gold stock pool over the past month include post-earnings announcement gap excess, single-quarter ROE, and intraday return rate[3][30] - The broker gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 11.47% and an excess return of 4.15% relative to the partial equity hybrid fund index for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026[5][43] - The broker gold stock performance enhancement portfolio ranked in the 16.69th percentile among active equity funds for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026[5][43] - The broker gold stock index achieved a return of 7.60% for the period from January 5, 2026, to January 30, 2026, compared to a return of 7.32% for the partial equity hybrid fund index over the same period[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the tumor gene testing industry [1] Core Insights - The tumor gene testing industry is on a fast development track, with significant international transactions and domestic regulatory innovations occurring since Q4 2025. The market is expected to expand significantly as applications for tumor MRD and multi-cancer early screening mature [2][6] - Exact Sciences is a leading company in colorectal cancer screening, projecting revenues of $3.22 to $3.235 billion for 2025, representing a growth of 16.7% to 17.2%. The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2022 to 2027 [2][18] - Natera is recognized as a leader in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing, with its core product, Signatera, achieving a sample volume of over 200,000 in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54% [2][68] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technological advancements and the positioning of leading companies in the tumor gene testing sector [2] Summary by Sections 1. Tumor Gene Testing Industry Overview - The tumor gene testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant stock price increases for leading companies such as Natera (52%), Exact Science (78%), Guardant (221%), and Grail (464%) in 2025 [2][6] - The market is projected to expand significantly, with potential market sizes for early screening (multi-cancer MCED and colorectal cancer) estimated at $40-50 billion, MRD at $15-20 billion, and companion diagnostics/treatment guidance at $3-5 billion [11][12] 2. Exact Sciences: Colorectal Cancer Screening Leader - Exact Sciences has established a robust medical ecosystem with a testing capacity exceeding 10 million annually. Its core product, Cologuard, has a brand recognition rate of over 90% [18] - The company anticipates maintaining a revenue growth rate of 15% and aims for an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 20% by 2027 [18][24] - Cologuard's future growth drivers include rescreening, addressing care gaps, pricing increases for the Plus version, and expanding into younger demographics [45][48] 3. Natera: Leader in MRD Testing - Natera's MRD product, Signatera, is pivotal in assessing treatment efficacy and guiding clinical decisions, with a significant focus on ctDNA mutation detection [2][68] - The company is expanding its presence in women's health and organ health, while also entering the colorectal cancer screening market [2][68] 4. Domestic Company Landscape and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the innovative developments from domestic companies such as Aide Biology, BGI, and Mirxes, which are making strides in lung cancer MRD products and multi-cancer early screening [2] - The report suggests monitoring the technological advancements and market positioning of these domestic leaders as the industry evolves [2]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 2026年02月02日 ETF 周报 上周科创芯片 ETF 规模突破 680 亿元，沪深 300 净赎回超 2400 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 指数业绩摘要上周（2026 年 01 月 26 日至 2026 年 01 月 30 日，下同）股 票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为-1.20%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅 中位数为 1.13%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.06%，收益最高。按主题进行分类，酒 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.39%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 3247.33 亿元，总体规模减少 3609.35 亿元。 在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净赎回最少，为 9.35 亿元；按板块来 看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 386.15 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多，为 111.56 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to establish the world's first "orbital data center system," targeting global AI computing infrastructure and services for billions of users [3][5]. - The focus of commercial aerospace is shifting from satellite internet to space computing, with significant growth expected in space photovoltaic and laser communication sectors due to the high energy demands of space computing [3][8]. - The development of space computing is anticipated to ignite a new wave of rocket launches, leading to substantial growth in the entire rocket manufacturing and launching industry [9]. Summary by Sections SpaceX's Satellite Launch Application - SpaceX plans to deploy over 1 million satellites to create an orbital data center, providing AI computing capabilities and utilizing solar energy to reduce costs [3][5]. - The satellites will be deployed in layers at altitudes of 500 km, 1000 km, and 2000 km, using laser links for inter-satellite and ground communication [3]. Market Opportunities - The space photovoltaic market is expected to expand significantly, with gallium arsenide batteries being the mainstream technology, while silicon and perovskite batteries may also play crucial roles [7]. - Laser communication is essential for large-scale satellite constellations, with recent advancements in China indicating a shift from technology validation to practical applications [7]. Rocket Launch Demand - To support the deployment of space computing, the demand for rocket launches is projected to grow explosively, with estimates suggesting thousands of new rockets will be needed [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of April 2013, suggesting that significant price drops can lead to increased consumer demand for gold products [4][6] - The report highlights that while the short-term market sentiment remains influenced by gold price volatility, the long-term growth logic of the industry is shifting towards product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural storytelling, leading to "alpha returns" [6][26] Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent gold price fluctuations have seen a rise of 12.28% by January 29, followed by a drop of 8.35% on January 30, raising concerns about their impact on retail sales in the gold jewelry sector [4] - The "gold rush" in 2013 was characterized by a significant increase in retail sales growth, reaching 72.16% in April 2013, which continued for several months [4][11] Historical Context - The report references the 2013 gold price drop, which led to a surge in gold purchases, significantly boosting the annual performance of companies like Luk Fook Holdings, which reported a revenue increase of 43.3% and a net profit increase of 50% for the fiscal year following the rush [12][4] Current Market Dynamics - The current gold price fluctuations share commonalities with the 2013 cycle, including a prolonged price increase before the drop, which may lead to a similar consumer buying frenzy [5] - However, the structural differences in the current market indicate that the driving forces behind gold purchases are more focused on long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation rather than short-term speculative gains [5][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests two main investment directions: 1. Companies like Caibai Co., which have dual business lines in investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Holdings, which has a competitive pricing advantage and strong operations in Hong Kong and Macau [6][26] 2. Leading companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, such as Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Chow Tai Fook, which have shown significant growth in recent years [6][26] Consumer Behavior Insights - The report indicates that consumer demand for gold products is becoming less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, with a focus on personal enjoyment and cultural recognition driving purchases [22][25] - Notably, companies with differentiated branding and product positioning have achieved high growth rates even in a high gold price environment, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing design and craftsmanship [22][25]