证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行险守 4000 点，资源股全线下挫、白酒表现活跃 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260202 市场全线下跌，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。 食品饮料、银行、电新、家电、电力公用事业行业表现较好，有色金属、钢 铁、煤炭、石油石化、基础化工行业表现较差。特高压、白酒、光纤、培育 钻石、配网等概念表现较好，黄金精选、铅锌矿、黄金珠宝、存储器、磷化 工等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260202 市场情绪较为低迷，收盘时有 44 只股票涨停，有 130 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 0.40%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为-7.34%。今日封板率 61%，较前日下降 4%，连板率 20%，较前日 提升 10%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260130 两融余额为 27153 亿元，其中融资余额 26987 亿元，融券余额 166 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.4%。 折溢价：202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][10]. Core Insights - Meta's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly double that of the previous year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising business [17]. - Figure's Helix02 humanoid robot has achieved significant breakthroughs in large models and neural networks, enhancing its applicability in household scenarios [3][18]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing intensified competition for orbital resources, with SpaceX applying to deploy a constellation of up to 1 million satellites [2][5]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The limited capacity of satellites in low Earth orbit will intensify the "first-come, first-served" effect, leading to increased competition for orbital resources. The report remains optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly in the rocket segment [2]. - Key companies to watch include SpaceX and domestic private rocket manufacturers like Landspace and CASIC, focusing on critical structural components and new applications of 3D printing [2]. Humanoid Robots - The report highlights the long-term investment potential in humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of value capture and certainty in investment. Companies with strong positions in the Tesla supply chain are recommended, such as Hengli Hydraulic and Wuzhou New Spring [3][8]. - The report suggests focusing on incremental segments with high stock elasticity, including core suppliers and companies with strong market positions [3][8]. AI Infrastructure - Meta's capital expenditure forecast indicates a robust outlook for AI infrastructure, particularly in gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies. The report suggests focusing on the gas turbine supply chain, including key components like turbine blades and generator sets [4][8]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of liquid cooling systems, recommending companies involved in both primary and secondary cooling components [4][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, all rated "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH) with an EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and 0.95 for 2026 [10]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with an EPS of 2.06 for 2025 and 2.46 for 2026 [10]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with an EPS of 0.79 for 2025 and 1.00 for 2026 [10].

Macro and Strategy - The "fixed income +" strategy enhances returns by participating in various asset classes while reducing portfolio volatility, improving the Sharpe ratio and minimizing drawdown risks [6][7] - Analysis of financial assets from different time frames shows that A-shares and US stocks lead the equity market, while long-term bonds have shown steady growth [6][7] - The report highlights the negative correlation between Chinese bonds and A-share indices, indicating a "seesaw effect" between stocks and bonds [7] Industry and Company Retail Industry - The report discusses the impact of gold price fluctuations on the jewelry retail market, referencing the "gold rush" of 2013 as a comparative case [10][11] - It notes that gold jewelry retail sales surged by 72.16% during the 2013 gold price drop, suggesting a potential similar consumer response in the current market [11] - Current market dynamics differ from 2013, with a focus on product innovation and brand storytelling driving consumer demand rather than solely price speculation [12][13] Aerospace Industry - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to create a global AI computing infrastructure, marking a shift towards space-based computing capabilities [14][15] - This initiative is expected to drive growth in sectors like space photovoltaics and laser communication, indicating a new wave of investment opportunities in commercial aerospace [15] Pharmaceutical Industry - The tumor gene testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant stock price increases among leading companies in the field [16][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for tumor gene testing to cover various stages of cancer treatment, indicating a substantial market expansion [16][19] Home Appliance Industry - Rising raw material prices are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [20][21] - Production rates for white goods are showing signs of recovery, with a projected stabilization in demand due to government policies [22][23] Chemical Industry - The report recommends investments in oil and gas, refining, potash, and phosphate sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability within the chemical industry [24][25] - The report notes that the supply-side issues are being addressed through policies aimed at reducing low-quality competition, which should improve overall industry profitability [25][26] Metal Packaging Industry - The company, Aorikin, is positioned as a leader in metal packaging, with a strong market presence in both three-piece and two-piece can segments [28][29] - The report forecasts a recovery in profitability for two-piece cans due to industry consolidation and improved pricing power following recent acquisitions [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product innovation and market positioning in the gold jewelry sector, as well as those in the aerospace and pharmaceutical industries that are poised for growth [13][15][19] - In the home appliance sector, it recommends leading brands that can navigate raw material cost pressures effectively [20][21]

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not result in increased profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting a focus on companies like China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential recovery in refining profits [7][22] - In the potash fertilizer sector, the report recommends Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with a recommendation for Chuanheng Co. due to its strong resource base [23][24] Investment Portfolio - The recommended investment portfolio includes China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yara International, and Chuanheng Co., highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential in the current market environment [24][25]

优于大市 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 悦己消费产业链研究之银发经济 社会结构演进及政策加码支持，银发悦己需求快速扩容 行业研究·行业快评 商贸零售 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 评论： 国内正步入老龄化社会，银发经济布局正当时 中国正步入深度老龄化社会，老龄化既带来劳动力供给趋紧等社会挑战，也蕴含巨大的银发族的消费市场 新机遇。根据沙利文数据，2019 年中国银发经济市场规模达到 4.3 万亿元，2023 年持续增长至 7.1 万亿 元，并在 2024 年进一步提升至 8.3 万亿元。预计到 2030 年，整体市场规模将突破 16.2 万亿元，2025 年 至 2030 年 CAGR（年复合增长率）约为 11.5%。未来政策层面的针对性指导方案出台，以及企业层面的配 套商品和服务供给转型，有望加快消费行业匹配及适应国内新的人口社会结构。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 | 证券分析师： | 张峻豪 | 021-60933168 | zhangjh@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 推荐油气、炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工的投资方向 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出， 低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业 营业收入利润率从 2021 年的 8.03%持续降至 2024 年的 4.85%，2025 年 以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长 10.56%， 行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于 2025 年 6 月开始转负，SW 基础化工行业及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多 个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；7 月"反内卷"政策正式出 台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，农药、石化、 有机硅、PTA 聚酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在制定行业指 导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新产能审批趋严、落后 产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工行业供给过 剩问题将得到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需求方面，伴 ...

2 月 2 日上证指数报收 4016 点，跌幅 2.48%，深证成指报收 13824 点，跌幅 2.69%，中小板指报收 8344 点， 跌幅 2.37%。创业板指报收 3264 点，跌幅 2.46%。有色、钢铁、化工等跌幅居前。 评论： 从上周五 1 月 30 日至本周一 2 月 2 日，AH 两地市场均出现了较明显的调整，上证指数两日累计最大跌幅 3.8%，恒生指数累计最大跌 5.0%。对于本轮市场下跌，部分投资者将之归咎于美联储的宽松预期变化，以 及商品市场大幅波动带来的连锁反应，背后主要是因为 1 月 30 日美联储前理事凯文·沃什被提名为下任 美联储主席，而其在货币政策上的取向以鹰派著称。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 市场调整的原因及性质 策略研究·策略快评 | 证券分析师： | 吴信坤 | 021-61761046 | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525120001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 余培仪 | 021-61761040 | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | ...

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction ratio industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite recent challenges [5][3] - Rising raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [1][17] - The report anticipates that the overall gross margin decline for white goods companies will be less than 2 percentage points due to price adjustments and cost-saving measures [1][17] Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, but the rate of decline is improving compared to previous months [2][24] - The cumulative production decline for January and February is estimated at 5%, showing signs of recovery driven by government subsidy policies [2][24] - The report highlights that the demand for white goods is expected to stabilize and recover as the effects of national subsidy policies continue to manifest [2][24] Retail Market Performance - The retail scale of China's home appliance market is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with small appliances showing relatively better performance [2][31] - Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are experiencing significant declines in retail sales, while kitchen small appliances are expected to see growth [2][31] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric in the small appliances sector [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong overseas growth potential and solid domestic performance, particularly those benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][14] Company Profitability Forecasts - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Smart Home, among others [4][50] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies suggest favorable valuations compared to historical averages, supporting the investment thesis [4][50]

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]