Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to see a surge in mature AI agent products due to advancements in large models, particularly in multi-modal capabilities, long text processing, and reasoning abilities. This increase in demand for reasoning will drive revenue growth for upstream cloud computing vendors [2][25]. - It notes that domestic internet giants are approximately one year behind their overseas counterparts in AI capital expenditures. As the capabilities of large models improve and supply builds up, AI will increasingly empower the core businesses of these giants [2][25]. - The report anticipates that the third quarter will mark a peak in spending for the internet giants' food delivery competition, with a projected narrowing of losses for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com in the fourth quarter [2][25]. - The report recommends focusing on AI-related stock selection, specifically highlighting Alibaba and Tencent Holdings as key investment opportunities [2][25]. Company Summaries - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an adjusted EPS forecast of 27.60 in 2025 and 32.63 in 2026, with PE ratios of 20.3 and 17.1 respectively [3]. - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is also rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 6.66 for 2025 and 8.77 for 2026, and PE ratios of 23.8 and 18.1 [3]. - Meituan (3690.HK) is rated "Outperform," with a forecasted adjusted EPS of -1.26 in 2025 and 5.20 in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in its financial outlook [3]. - Baidu Group (9888.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 7.64 for 2025 and 8.87 for 2026, and PE ratios of 19.7 and 17.0 [3]. - Kuaishou (1024.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS forecast of 4.68 in 2025 and 5.51 in 2026, with PE ratios of 16.3 and 13.9 [3]. - Tencent Music (TME.N) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 5.64 for 2025 and 6.50 for 2026, and PE ratios of 21.1 and 18.4 [3]. - NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 14.54 for 2025 and 12.09 for 2026, with PE ratios of 11.5 and 13.8 [3]. - Meitu (1357.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 0.16 for 2025 and 0.27 for 2026, with PE ratios of 48.6 and 28.8 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was 0.95%. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF had the highest return; among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the highest return; among hot theme ETFs, the photovoltaic ETF had the highest return. Equity ETFs had a net redemption of 338.098 billion yuan last week. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF had the least net redemption; among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions; among theme ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions. As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs. Six ETFs will be issued this week [1][2][58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs from January 19 to January 23, 2026, was 0.95%. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 500, CSI 1000, Science and Technology Innovation Board, A500, ChiNext, CSI 300, and SSE 50 ETFs had median returns of 4.34%, 2.88%, 2.46%, 0.78%, -0.34%, -0.60%, and -1.55% respectively. Commodity, bond, money market, and cross-border ETFs had median returns of 7.51%, 0.11%, 0.02%, and -0.67% respectively. By sector, the median returns of cyclical, technology, large finance, and consumer sector ETFs were 3.52%, 0.62%, -0.73%, and -0.95% respectively. By hot theme, the median returns of photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were 6.87%, 5.30%, and 2.34% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of bank, liquor, and pharmaceutical ETFs were -2.65%, -1.66%, and -1.53% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [12][15]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 352.9 billion yuan, 104.47 billion yuan, and 73.46 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of commodity and money market ETFs were relatively small, at 30.76 billion yuan and 15.35 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had relatively large scales of 85.38 billion yuan and 28.23 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively small scales of 20.23 billion yuan, 19.8 billion yuan, 14.47 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan, and 11.2 billion yuan respectively. By sector, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 55.15 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 31.76 billion yuan. The consumer and large finance ETFs had relatively small scales of 19.71 billion yuan and 19.69 billion yuan respectively. By hot theme, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 19.25 billion yuan, 14.05 billion yuan, and 11.16 billion yuan respectively. Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 338.098 billion yuan, and the total scale decreased by 309.829 billion yuan; money market ETFs had a net subscription of 199.5 million yuan, and the total scale increased by 200.9 million yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF had the least net redemption of 8.427 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 302 million yuan; the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 237.252 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.481 billion yuan. By sector, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 29.338 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 42.211 billion yuan; the large finance ETF had the least net subscriptions of 1.979 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 230 million yuan. By hot theme, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 12.774 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 15.931 billion yuan; the new energy vehicle ETF had the most net redemptions of 240 million yuan, and its scale decreased by 85 million yuan [18][25][27]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 80.28%, 84.90%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 68.32%, and 97.45% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 54.08%, 72.03%, 100.00%, 85.48%, 68.81%, and 97.70% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs are currently at the 95.38% and 83.91% quantiles respectively. As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large finance, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 90.35%, 22.77%, 33.17%, and 98.27% quantiles respectively, and their price-to-book ratios were at the 93.65%, 41.50%, 37.21%, and 99.01% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs decreased significantly. As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of military, photovoltaic, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.83%, 99.83%, and 99.09% respectively; the price-to-book ratio quantiles of robot, AI, and military ETFs were relatively high, at 99.83%, 99.42%, and 93.23% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of bank ETFs decreased significantly. Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext and SSE 50 ETFs were relatively low; by sector, the valuation quantiles of large finance and consumer ETFs were relatively moderate; by sub-theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs were relatively low [33][35][45]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs decreased from 53.91 billion yuan in the previous week to 53.456 billion yuan, and the short selling volume increased from 2.276 billion shares in the previous week to 2.303 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF and the CSI 500 ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [46][47][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub-fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross-border ETFs; E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross-border ETFs; Huatai-PineBridge Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs. Nine new ETFs were established last week, and six ETFs will be issued this week [52][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][11]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][11][15]. - The report highlights a diversified performance across sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and liquor categories [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.37% this week, with A-shares down 1.57% and H-shares up 1.21% [1]. - Key performers included companies like Hao Xiang Ni and Wei Zhi Xiang, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Liquor**: - Moutai's price remains stable with an upward trend, and the focus is on sales momentum during the Spring Festival. Recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][11]. - **Beverages**: - The dairy segment is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a focus on leading companies like Yili. Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [2][15]. - **Snacks**: - The report emphasizes strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong innovation [2][13]. - **Catering Supply Chain**: - The sector is entering a peak season for inventory and sales, with new standards for prepared dishes being solicited for public opinion [2][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on four main lines for investment: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven companies, and potential recovery in the liquor sector [3][11]. - Recommended stocks include Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have shown resilience and growth potential [17][19]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Key companies are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with Moutai expected to achieve a stable performance and Yili showing significant recovery potential [4][15][19]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of investments in the silver economy, driven by recent government policies aimed at fostering the development of elderly care services and related sectors [2][17]. - The Spring Festival travel rush is anticipated to significantly boost travel demand, with projections of approximately 95 million air passengers during the period [2][20]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 1.52% during the review period, surpassing the broader market by 2.71 percentage points [1][12]. Summary by Sections Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies from eight government departments aim to cultivate elderly care service providers, enhancing the silver economy's growth potential [2][17]. - New Oriental has launched a "Retirement Club" to offer local interest courses and social activities for seniors, while China Travel Group has introduced a wellness tourism brand [2][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a surge in passenger numbers, with a projected 5% increase in rail travel and a similar growth in air travel [2][20]. - The IPO activity in the chain industry remains robust, with companies like Yuanji Food and Guming Tea achieving significant milestones [2][21]. Stock Performance - During the review period, notable stock performances included Tongdao Liepin (+26.86%), Keri International (+17.50%), and Zhongxin Tourism (+15.91%) [1][15]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group saw a decline of 18.63%, and Huatu Shanding dropped by 11.55% [1][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Guming, Huazhu Group, and Ctrip, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][28]. - Long-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, and various educational and hospitality companies, indicating a diverse investment strategy across sectors [3][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a surge in mature AI agent products in 2026, driven by advancements in multi-modal capabilities, long text processing, and reasoning abilities. This increase in demand for reasoning will boost revenues for upstream cloud computing providers [2][25]. - Domestic internet giants are approximately one year behind their overseas counterparts in AI capital expenditures. As the capabilities of large models improve and supply builds up, AI will increasingly empower the core businesses of these giants [2][25]. - The third quarter is expected to be a peak for investment in the internet giants' food delivery competition, with a projected narrowing of losses for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com in the fourth quarter [2][25]. - The report recommends focusing on AI-related stocks, specifically highlighting Alibaba and Tencent Holdings as key investment opportunities [2][25]. Company Dynamics - ByteDance launched version 2.0 of its AI agent platform "Coze," introducing new features such as Agent Skills and Agent Plan, allowing users to set long-term goals for AI to manage [17]. - Anker and Feishu jointly released the "AI Recording Bean," a portable AI hardware device designed for various recording scenarios [17]. - MiniMax's AI native workspace Agent 2.0 was officially launched, featuring components that enhance task execution and business understanding [19]. - The American AI startup Humans& secured $480 million in seed funding, achieving a valuation of $4.48 billion [19]. - Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus is set for public sale by the end of 2027, with a target price of $20,000 [20]. - Google Gemini introduced a free SAT simulation feature in collaboration with The Princeton Review, providing instant feedback to users [20]. - xAI Grok Imagine launched a 10-second video generation feature, enhancing its capabilities in the AI video sector [21]. Underlying Technology - Zhipu AI released and open-sourced the GLM-4.7-Flash model, a lightweight large language model designed for local programming and intelligent assistance [22]. - DeepSeek unveiled a new model architecture called "MODEL1," which is expected to be efficient for inference tasks [22]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen open-sourced the Qwen3-TTS series voice generation model, supporting multiple languages and dialects [23]. - Baidu launched the official version of its Wenxin model 5.0, which boasts a parameter scale of 24 trillion and excels in multi-modal understanding and generation [23]. - Google DeepMind introduced the D4RT model, significantly improving the speed of dynamic 4D reconstruction [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core View The report summarizes the performance, scale changes, net subscriptions/redemptions, valuation, margin trading, and fund managers of ETFs in the past week. It also mentions recent market events and new fund issuances [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 0.95%. Among broad - based ETFs, the median return of CSI 500ETF was 4.34%, the highest. By sector, the median return of cyclical ETFs was 3.52%, the highest. By theme, the median return of photovoltaic ETFs was 6.87%, the highest [1][12][15]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redemptions - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 338.098 billion yuan, with the overall scale decreasing by 309.829 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 500ETF had the least net redemption of 8.427 billion yuan; by sector, cyclical ETFs had the most net subscriptions of 29.338 billion yuan; by theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions of 12.774 billion yuan [2][27][30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - In broad - based ETFs, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext and SSE 50ETF were relatively low. By sector, the valuation quantiles of large - finance and consumer ETFs were relatively moderate. Among sub - themes, the valuation quantiles of liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer and bank ETFs decreased significantly [3][33][45]. ETF Margin Trading - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 53.910 billion yuan to 53.456 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.276 billion shares to 2.303 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin purchases and short - selling volume, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs and CSI 500ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, while CSI 1000ETF and CSI 500ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][46][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 6 ETFs will be issued, including Huaan CSI Non - ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse CSI All - Index Electric Power and Utilities ETF, etc. [5][52][55].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 | 证券分析师：戴丹苗 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | | 0755-81982379 | 0755-22940745 | | daidanmiao@guosen.com.cnzhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980520040003 | S0980513080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 中债综合指数 | 254.4 | | 中债长/中短期指数 | 245.4/209.1 | | 银行间国债收益(10Y) | 1.83 | | 企业/公司/转债规模(千亿) | 78.7/22.4/5.6 | | 市场走势 | | 公募 REITs 周报（第 51 期） 指数大幅上行，多只公募 REITs 终止发行 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周 REITs 市场大幅上行，中证 REITs 指数周涨 1.7%，新型基础 设施、消费类、市政设施 REITs 涨幅突出。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看， 中证转债>中证 REITs>中证全债>沪深 300。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，产权类 RE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The silver economy is gaining traction with active policy support from multiple government departments aimed at fostering the development of elderly care services and enhancing consumption potential [2][17]. - The Spring Festival travel rush is anticipated to significantly boost travel demand, with projections of approximately 95 million air passengers during the period [2][20]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 1.52%, surpassing the market by 2.71 percentage points during the review period [1][12]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies have been introduced to cultivate elderly care service providers, with companies like New Oriental and China Travel Group launching initiatives targeting the silver economy [2][17][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a substantial increase in passenger numbers, with a forecast of 22.4 million travelers in Hainan, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The IPO activity in the chain industry remains robust, with companies like Yuanji Food and Guming Tea achieving significant milestones in store openings and financial performance [2][21]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the social services sector include increases of 26.86% for Tongdao Liepin and 17.50% for Keri International during the review period [1][15]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group saw a decline of 18.63%, indicating volatility within the sector [1][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Guming, Huazhu Group, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [3][28]. - Long-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Mijia Group, and various educational and travel service providers, reflecting a diversified approach to investment in the sector [3][28].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 53.7 billion, net profit of CNY 24.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 92.2 billion, net profit of CNY 45.3 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 110.9 billion, net profit of CNY 51.0 billion [3][48]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, around 90% for self-operated games [21][44]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the sales expense ratio due to rapid revenue growth, projecting it to be 26.0%, 24.5%, and 25.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [44][45]. Company Overview - Founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, the company has evolved from its origins as Zhengtu Network and has established itself as a leading game developer in China [8][14]. - The company has a strong portfolio of self-developed games, which contribute significantly to its revenue, with a gross margin close to 90% [21][28]. - The management team is experienced, with key figures having over 20 years of tenure at the company, ensuring stability and continuity in leadership [11][12]. Market Position - The domestic gaming market is projected to exceed CNY 350 billion, with the company holding a market share of approximately 1.5% [14][18]. - The company ranks 29th among global mobile game publishers in terms of revenue for 2025, indicating a strong competitive position within the industry [14][18].