证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 | 证券分析师：戴丹苗 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | | 0755-81982379 | 0755-22940745 | | daidanmiao@guosen.com.cnzhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980520040003 | S0980513080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 中债综合指数 | 254.4 | | 中债长/中短期指数 | 245.4/209.1 | | 银行间国债收益(10Y) | 1.83 | | 企业/公司/转债规模(千亿) | 78.7/22.4/5.6 | | 市场走势 | | 公募 REITs 周报（第 51 期） 指数大幅上行，多只公募 REITs 终止发行 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周 REITs 市场大幅上行，中证 REITs 指数周涨 1.7%，新型基础 设施、消费类、市政设施 REITs 涨幅突出。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看， 中证转债>中证 REITs>中证全债>沪深 300。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，产权类 RE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The silver economy is gaining traction with active policy support from multiple government departments aimed at fostering the development of elderly care services and enhancing consumption potential [2][17]. - The Spring Festival travel rush is anticipated to significantly boost travel demand, with projections of approximately 95 million air passengers during the period [2][20]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 1.52%, surpassing the market by 2.71 percentage points during the review period [1][12]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies have been introduced to cultivate elderly care service providers, with companies like New Oriental and China Travel Group launching initiatives targeting the silver economy [2][17][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a substantial increase in passenger numbers, with a forecast of 22.4 million travelers in Hainan, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The IPO activity in the chain industry remains robust, with companies like Yuanji Food and Guming Tea achieving significant milestones in store openings and financial performance [2][21]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the social services sector include increases of 26.86% for Tongdao Liepin and 17.50% for Keri International during the review period [1][15]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group saw a decline of 18.63%, indicating volatility within the sector [1][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Guming, Huazhu Group, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [3][28]. - Long-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Mijia Group, and various educational and travel service providers, reflecting a diversified approach to investment in the sector [3][28].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 53.7 billion, net profit of CNY 24.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 92.2 billion, net profit of CNY 45.3 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 110.9 billion, net profit of CNY 51.0 billion [3][48]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, around 90% for self-operated games [21][44]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the sales expense ratio due to rapid revenue growth, projecting it to be 26.0%, 24.5%, and 25.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [44][45]. Company Overview - Founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, the company has evolved from its origins as Zhengtu Network and has established itself as a leading game developer in China [8][14]. - The company has a strong portfolio of self-developed games, which contribute significantly to its revenue, with a gross margin close to 90% [21][28]. - The management team is experienced, with key figures having over 20 years of tenure at the company, ensuring stability and continuity in leadership [11][12]. Market Position - The domestic gaming market is projected to exceed CNY 350 billion, with the company holding a market share of approximately 1.5% [14][18]. - The company ranks 29th among global mobile game publishers in terms of revenue for 2025, indicating a strong competitive position within the industry [14][18].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11]. - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16]. - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan. The sector's overweight ratio is 0.64%, indicating a maintained overweight status [1][11]. Subsector Analysis - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, with an overweight ratio of 0.84%. Excluding Kweichow Moutai, the ratio drops to 1.84% with an overweight ratio of 0.85%. The dairy sector's fund holding ratio has increased to 0.25%, ranking third among subsectors [2][16][17]. Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio has decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296. Other major stocks in the white liquor sector, such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu, have also seen declines in their heavy holding ratios [3][27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5][35] Core Views - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11] - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16] - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total institutional heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan [1][11] - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, while the ratio excluding Kweichow Moutai is 1.84% [2][16] Subsector Performance - White liquor: Fund holding ratio decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 3.32%, with an overweight ratio down to 0.84% [2][16] - Dairy: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.10 percentage points to 0.25%, with an overweight ratio up to -0.16% [17] - Snacks: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points to 0.22%, with an overweight ratio up to 0.12% [17] Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296 [3][27] - Wuliangye's heavy holding ratio decreased to 0.41%, with a reduction in the number of funds holding it [3][27] - Yuran Dairy's heavy holding ratio increased to 0.07%, indicating a positive shift in fund allocations [3][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, has a strong R&D background and has transitioned from a focus on traditional gaming to mobile and international markets [8][14]. - The company has launched several successful games, including "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu," which have established a loyal user base [31][34]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 33.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.8% [24]. - The gross margin remains high, around 90%, with sales expenses peaking during new product launches [21][28]. Product Development - The "Zhengtu" series has been a long-standing IP, continuously expanding its user base through various platforms [31][32]. - The new game "Supernatural Action Group" has been well-received, leveraging unique gameplay mechanics and strong social features to attract users [38][39]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the Chinese gaming industry, ranking 29th among mobile game publishers globally [14][18]. - The gaming market in China is projected to reach CNY 3507.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.7% [14]. Future Projections - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 24.1 billion, CNY 45.3 billion, and CNY 51.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.62, CNY 3.05, and CNY 3.43 [3][48]. - The company anticipates maintaining a high gross margin and improving operational efficiency through AI integration in game development [45][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of January 19 - 23, the stock market had large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were still oscillating strongly. The bond market was affected by regulatory news and the central bank's actions, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate falling. The convertible bond market generally rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 2.92% [1][7][8]. - In the context of strong equity market sentiment and tight supply - demand of convertible bonds, the convertible bond market continued to rise last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high in nearly 10 years. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks [2][17]. - Looking forward, although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has further increased, the upward trend of the equity market is clear, providing support for convertible bond valuation. In the coming week, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries [3][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 19 - 23) - **Stock Market**: There were large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were oscillating strongly with daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion yuan. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for power grid investment boosted the power grid equipment sector, and precious metals rose significantly due to global geopolitical situations. Different sectors showed fragmented performance on different days, and most Shenwan primary industries rose, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. leading the gains, while banks, communication, etc. lagging behind [1][7][8]. - **Bond Market**: The economic data announced last week was in line with expectations. The mid - week capital situation was tight but improved after the central bank's intervention. News of regulatory intention to cool the equity market was favorable for the bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.8298% on Friday, down 1.26bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond individual securities rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 2.92% for the week, the median price was up 3.01%, and the arithmetic average parity was up 3.66%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.96% compared with the previous week. The textile and clothing, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors in the convertible bond market led the gains, while social services, media, etc. lagged behind. In terms of individual bonds, Jiamei, Fuxin, etc. had the top gains, while Dongshi, Yinbang, etc. had the top losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 4395.97 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 879.19 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1][8][12]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 26 - 30) - **Risk Avoidance**: Strengthen the expected management of individual bond redemptions. Due to the "unexpected redemptions" of some targets at the beginning of the week, the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds was compressed. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks by considering factors such as remaining term and short - term stock price demands [2][17]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has increased, the upward trend of the equity market provides support for convertible bond valuation. In the week of January 26 - 30, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty such as semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, lithium battery, CXO, etc., and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries for absolute return funds [3][18]. 3.3 Valuation Overview - As of January 23, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different price ranges were at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 5.66%, at the 0%/1% percentile since 2010 and 2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds and the difference between the implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks were also at high percentile values [19]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (January 19 - 23)**: Aiwei and Longjian convertible bonds announced their issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Aiwei Convertible Bond has a scale of 19.01 billion yuan, and Longjian Convertible Bond has a scale of 10 billion yuan [26][27]. - **Next Week (January 26 - 30)**: No convertible bonds are announced for issuance, and Lianrui Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 6.95 billion yuan [28][29]. - **Overall Situation**: As of January 23, there were 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 1522.3 billion yuan, including 8 that have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 61.6 billion yuan [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects available from public channels, providing basic element tracking of private exchangeable bond projects. It emphasizes that the private issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. For the issuance progress, inquiries should be made with the relevant lead underwriters [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content New Project Information This Week - Huabang Life - Health Co., Ltd.'s 2026 private placement of science - and - technology innovation exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors has received feedback from the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 1 billion yuan, the underlying stock is Kaisheng New Materials (301069.SZ), the lead underwriters are Huatai United and Southwest Securities, and the exchange update date is January 23, 2026 [1]. - Shenzhen Huaqiang Group Co., Ltd.'s 2026 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors has been accepted by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 2.4 billion yuan, the underlying stock is Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062.SZ), the lead underwriter is Jinyuan United Securities, and the exchange update date is January 22, 2026 [1]. Table of Private EB Weekly Tracking (2026 - 1 - 23) - Multiple private exchangeable bond projects are listed, including those of Shanxi Transportation Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd., Fuda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., etc. The statuses of these projects include "Passed", "Feedback Received", and "Accepted", with different issuance scales, underlying stocks, lead underwriters, and update dates [3].