2025 年 10 月 09 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 券商金股解析月报（2025 年 10 月） ——金融工程定期 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 10 月份券商金股特征解析 10 月份中航沈飞、立讯精密、兆易创新、洛阳钼业、兴业银锡、安琪酵母、巨 人网络等金股推荐次数靠前。10 月份券商金股已经陆续发布，我们 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant developments, highlighted by OpenAI's release of the Sora2.0 video generation model, which is expected to accelerate the proliferation of AI applications [4][12] - The computer index rose by 2.47% during the week of September 29 to September 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.99% [11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The computer index increased by 2.47% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.99% during the week of September 29 to September 30, 2025 [11] AI Industry Developments - OpenAI launched Sora2.0, marking a significant advancement in video generation technology, which is expected to enhance AI application capabilities [4][12] - The Sora application achieved the top position in the Apple App Store's free apps category shortly after its launch, surpassing competitors like ChatGPT and Gemini [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI industry trends influenced by the US-China industrial resonance, recommending companies such as Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and others in the computing power sector [15] - Beneficiary stocks include Cambrian, Bojie Co., and Unisplendour among others, with additional recommendations for AI applications including Kingsoft Office, Zhuyun Information, and others [15]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to budget disagreements, which has led to a rise in gold prices, while domestic consumption remains stronger in volume than in price [4][6] - Japan may see its first female Prime Minister, which could positively impact the Japanese stock market [4] - The global economy shows signs of weakness, with the U.S. ADP employment figures declining and manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan decreasing [6] Group 2: Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors recently include non-ferrous metals, defense, real estate, electric power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, with respective gains of 3.224%, 2.590%, 2.123%, 1.714%, and 1.405% [3][4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery, with the PMI for September at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement [19][20] - The non-manufacturing PMI remains stable at 50.0%, reflecting a balanced economic environment [22] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, as key investment themes [12][14] - There is a recommendation to explore opportunities in gaming, media, and the Huawei supply chain as potential growth areas [12][15] - The report suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, favoring short-term bonds, undervalued convertible bonds, and gold assets [38][39] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Hengxin Life is highlighted as a leading company in biodegradable food packaging, with significant production capacity and strong ties to major global brands [56] - Hanhigh Group is recognized for its strong market presence in the home hardware industry, leveraging a multi-channel approach for market penetration [57] - Jiyuan Group is noted for its comprehensive capabilities in the dietary supplement industry, being a major supplier for several well-known brands [58] Group 5: Health Insurance Sector - The health insurance sector is expected to see significant growth driven by new regulatory guidelines aimed at enhancing product offerings and market accessibility [60][61] - Major insurance companies are increasingly integrating health management services into their offerings, which is anticipated to improve profitability and market share [62] - The report recommends key players in the health insurance space, including China Ping An and China Taiping, as beneficiaries of these trends [62]

Group 1: Hengxin Life - Hengxin Life is a leading enterprise in the biodegradable food service ware industry, deeply bound to global top restaurant brands [1][10] - The company has established a production capacity of 9 billion paper and plastic food service items annually, with multiple production bases in China and a global layout including a factory in Thailand [1][10] - The demand for food service ware is robust, driven by urbanization and rising income levels, leading to an upgrade in consumer expectations for quality, environment, service, and experience [1][25] - The revenue from paper food service products is the highest, with a gross margin of 36.09%, while plastic food service products also maintain a high gross margin of 33.97% [11][12] - The company has shown significant revenue growth from 420 million in 2020 to 1.594 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.21% [15][24] Group 2: Hanhai Group - Hanhai Group is a prominent brand in the domestic home hardware and outdoor furniture industry, with a strong reputation built over nearly 20 years [2][18] - The company has expanded its market share through product innovation and a comprehensive marketing network, with 381 distributors as of June 2025 [2][18] - The home hardware and outdoor furniture market is expected to grow significantly, driven by consumer upgrades and technological advancements [2][20] - Hanhai Group's revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a notable increase in brand recognition among consumers [2][18] Group 3: Jiyuan Group - Jiyuan Group has over 20 years of experience in the dietary supplement industry, serving as a core supplier for many well-known brands [3][32] - The company is the largest global supplier of HMB, holding over 50% of the market share, and is also a key player in the glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate markets [3][32] - The dietary supplement market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing consumer awareness of health and nutrition [3][34] - Jiyuan Group has established a comprehensive supply chain and is actively developing innovative nutritional raw materials [3][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential for growth in the health insurance sector, driven by increasing health awareness and an aging population. The recent regulatory guidance aims to enhance the quality and scope of health insurance products [4][5] - Major insurance companies are strategically positioning themselves in the health management sector, which is expected to improve profitability and valuation as they leverage their comprehensive advantages [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The health insurance market is projected to expand significantly due to demographic changes and rising health consciousness among the population [5] - The report notes a decline in the proportion of health insurance premiums in recent years, attributed to factors such as profitability of insurance products and market standardization [5] Regulatory Developments - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of health insurance, emphasizing the need for a multi-layered health insurance market by 2030 [4] - Key initiatives include expanding coverage to include new medical technologies and supporting the integration of health insurance with health management services [4][5] Company Strategies - Leading insurance firms like China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and Ping An are enhancing their health management capabilities and developing innovative insurance products [6] - These companies are expected to benefit from regulatory support, which will help them reduce risk and improve profitability through a higher proportion of health insurance in their portfolios [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report continues to recommend the brokerage sector, highlighting that new health insurance regulations are expected to drive a new round of growth opportunities [5] - The brokerage sector shows high profitability and attractive valuation, with significant growth potential in the third quarter [5] - The report emphasizes the expansion of health insurance products and services, which is anticipated to create new growth opportunities in the health insurance sector [6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume for stock funds in the week of September 29-30 was 2.75 trillion, a decrease of 0.5% month-on-month, while the cumulative average daily trading volume for 2025 reached 1.96 trillion, an increase of 112% year-on-year [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance its attractiveness and competitiveness [5] - The report identifies three main lines for investment: 1. Guosen Securities, benefiting from retail advantages and the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot 2. Huatai Securities and CICC, with strengths in overseas and institutional business 3. GF Securities and Dongfang Securities H, excelling in wealth management [5] Health Insurance Sector - On September 30, 2025, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission released guidelines for promoting high-quality development in health insurance, which aims to broaden coverage and enhance product offerings [6] - The report notes that stable long-term interest rates and improved asset returns are expected to enhance the profitability and valuation of insurance companies [6] - The report recommends undervalued stocks such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance due to their leading positions in the health industry [6] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities H, CICC H, Dongfang Caifu, Guotai Junan; China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance; Jiangsu Jinzhong, Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and Xinhua Insurance [7]

Group 1: Global Macro News - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to budget disagreements, marking the first shutdown in seven years, with a focus on the Affordable Care Act subsidies[3] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to implement fiscal expansion policies, positively impacting Japanese stocks while putting pressure on the yen and Japanese bonds[4] - France's Prime Minister, Le Cornu, resigned after only 27 days in office, highlighting ongoing political and fiscal crises in France[4] Group 2: Global Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment change for September was -32,000, significantly below the expected 51,000, indicating continued weakness in the labor market[4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September rose slightly to 49.1%, while the Eurozone and Japan saw declines to 49.8% and 48.5%, respectively, indicating marginal economic weakening in these regions[4] Group 3: Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, with a focus on accelerating project construction[5] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for effective monetary policy execution to support economic stability and growth[5] Group 4: Domestic Economic Performance - China's manufacturing PMI for September was 49.8%, slightly up from 49.4% in August, but still below the seasonal average of 50.2%[5] - Domestic consumption during the National Day holiday showed a volume increase of 10-20% year-on-year, but average spending per person declined[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The release of OpenAI's Sora2.0 marks a significant advancement in video generation technology, indicating a pivotal moment for AI applications [5] - OpenAI's $1 trillion expansion plan for AI computing infrastructure is expected to drive demand for AI computing power, particularly with the increased requirements of multimodal models [6] - The report maintains a strong outlook for the AI industry in 2025, highlighting several companies as beneficiaries of this trend [7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The computer industry is projected to outperform the overall market, with a focus on the rise of AI applications and computing power [1][7] - The Sora2.0 model is seen as a leap forward in video generation capabilities, surpassing previous models and gaining significant user traction [5] Key Developments - OpenAI's Sora2.0 requires substantial GPU resources for training and inference, indicating a shift towards more demanding AI applications [6] - The partnership between OpenAI and Nvidia aims to establish a robust AI data center infrastructure, further enhancing the industry's growth potential [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the computing power sector include Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and Inspur Information, among others [7] - AI application companies such as Kingsoft Office and iFlytek are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the Chinese spring industry, focusing on high-barrier markets and leveraging both domestic substitution and smart technology as dual growth drivers [5][6]. - The company has established deep partnerships with major domestic electric vehicle manufacturers such as Geely, BYD, and Li Auto, as well as stable relationships with international Tier 1 suppliers like WABCO and ZF [5][6]. - The company is expected to see significant profit recovery, with projected net profits of 190 million, 270 million, and 320 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.92, 1.27, and 1.51 yuan [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a strong history of growth and expansion, becoming the first listed company in the Chinese spring industry in 2017 [17]. - It has undergone multiple acquisitions to enhance its industrial layout, including significant acquisitions in 2021 and 2024 to expand its product lines and global competitiveness [17][18]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The spring industry has high barriers to entry due to technological, financial, and customer-related challenges, with foreign companies still dominating the high-end market [32][33]. - The rise of domestic electric vehicle manufacturers is driving demand for suspension systems, with the market for springs expected to reach 431.24 billion yuan by 2030 [35][41]. 3. Customer Base and Technology - The company has established strong customer relationships with leading domestic and international automotive manufacturers, creating a robust customer barrier [44]. - It has accumulated significant technological expertise, holding 111 patents and continuously investing in R&D, with a 32% increase in R&D spending in 2024 [47][50]. 4. Growth Drivers - The company is investing 660 million yuan in smart suspension systems, anticipating significant market growth in this area, with the air suspension market projected to exceed 80 billion yuan by 2030 [55][54]. - The humanoid robot market is also seen as a new growth avenue, with the global robotics market expected to surpass 100 billion USD by 2035 [56][59]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 1.37 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.14 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.2% [7][30]. - Profit margins are also expected to improve, with gross margins projected to reach 24.8% by 2027 [7][30].

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 10 月 08 日 "920"代码切换迎新机，历史规律与海外科技映射下的节后小盘股机遇 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所"920"时代国庆后开启，历史数据显示节后小盘风格胜率显著提升 "920"代码切换催化在即，历史数据显示节后小盘风格胜率显著提升。北交所 将于 10 月 9 日为存量股启用新证券代码，这标志着北交所全面进入独立代码时 代，此举旨在强化其作为服务创新型中小企业主阵地的市场定位，并脱离过往与 新三板混同的代码体系，市场生态与板块认同感预计将得到显著提升。此外，统 一 920 代码还有助于强化北交所"专精特新"特色与着重培育创新型中小企业等 特点，吸引相应特点优质企业加入板块。以北交所当前小盘风格为主的特性，回 溯中证 2000 历史表现可见，国庆节后是小盘股的传统优势窗口。具体来看，节 后前三个交易日（T+1 至 T+3）上涨胜率高达 70%-80% 。核心逻辑在于，节前 漫长的假期兑现了市场的观望与避险情绪，节后资金回流、风险偏好修复，流动 性更敏感的 ...