Revenue Insights - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1,402.6 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.02%[2] - Tax revenue growth slowed down, with November tax revenue recorded at 1,145.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 8.6% in the previous month[2] - Non-tax revenue in November was 257.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month[2] Expenditure Trends - General budget expenditure in November was 2,271.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, but showing a marginal improvement from a previous decline of 9.8%[3] - Social security and employment expenditure saw a significant drop, decreasing by 7% in November, marking a rare negative growth in the past three years[3] - Science and technology expenditure increased significantly by 28 percentage points to 27% in November, indicating a focus on innovation[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in November was 580.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, but the decline was less than the previous month by 2.6 percentage points[4] - Government fund expenditure surged to 1,123.2 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery in spending[4] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, contributing to the significant increase in government fund expenditure[4] Fiscal Health Outlook - The overall fiscal revenue decline is expected to be manageable, with potential revenue gaps estimated at around 340 billion yuan under certain assumptions[4] - If the government fund revenue growth continues as in November, the total revenue gap could exceed 750 billion yuan, but the impact on the economy is expected to be limited[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in non-bank deposit growth, indicating a reduced diversion of deposits to the stock market, with large banks experiencing a net inflow of deposits while smaller banks see a decline [5][6] - The report suggests that the upcoming quarter (Q1 2026) will present challenges for banks in terms of asset-liability matching due to the maturity of high-interest deposits and fluctuating deposit growth [7] - The investment strategy emphasizes balancing asset quality and pricing power, with a focus on large state-owned banks and leading comprehensive banks as key investment targets [8] Summary by Sections Deposit Trends - In November, large banks saw a decrease of 83.3 billion yuan in non-bank deposits, reflecting a weakening effect of the stock market on deposit diversion [5] - Non-bank deposit growth remains higher than that of resident fixed deposits, indicating a shift of funds into wealth management products [6] - Smaller banks experienced a year-on-year decrease of 478.9 billion yuan in fixed deposits, while large banks saw an increase of 419.4 billion yuan, suggesting a trend of deposit migration back to larger institutions [6] Credit and Investment Dynamics - Credit demand, particularly in consumer sectors, remains weak, leading to a continued slowdown in lending growth [7] - The report anticipates that banks may increase bond investments to fill year-end balance sheet requirements, especially as high-interest fixed deposits mature [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on large state-owned banks as foundational investments, with specific mentions of Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as beneficiaries [8] - Core investments should target leading comprehensive banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, with a recommendation for CITIC Bank as a key stock [8] - For more flexible investments, banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [8]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 美国公布 11 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 6.4 万，失业率为 4.6%，均高于市场 预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.5%，略低于市场预期。虽然 11 月非农就业数据显示 当前美国就业市场可能仍在缓慢向下，但结合美联储 12 月 FOMC 的表态以及近 期美联储官员们的发言来看，美联储短期内降息的可能性并不高。 开源晨会 1218 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.066 | | 有色金属 | 3.03 | | 电子 | 2.48 | | 基础化工 | 2.15 | | 电力设备 | 2.087 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.543 | | 国防军工 | -0.197 | | 煤炭 | -0.115 | | 房地产 | ...

- The report constructs a valuation indicator called "Hundred Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" to compare the valuation of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks over time[3] - The "Hundred Yuan Conversion Premium Rate" rolling three-year percentile is at 98.00%, and the rolling five-year percentile is at 94.50% as of December 12, 2025[3][16] - The report constructs a valuation indicator called "Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM" to compare the valuation of debt-biased convertible bonds and credit bonds[4] - The "Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM" median is -3.95% as of December 12, 2025, indicating a low overall cost-effectiveness of debt-biased convertible bonds[4][16] - The report constructs two valuation deviation factors: Conversion Premium Deviation Factor and Theoretical Value Deviation Factor (Monte Carlo Model), and combines them into a Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor[5] - The Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor is constructed as follows: $$ \text{Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank}(\text{Conversion Premium Deviation}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Theoretical Value Deviation (Monte Carlo Model)}) $$ [22] - The Conversion Premium Deviation Factor is calculated as: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium} $$ [22] - The Theoretical Value Deviation Factor (Monte Carlo Model) is calculated as: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ [22] - The report constructs three low-valuation equal-weight indices: Equity-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index, Balanced Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index, and Debt-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index[20] - The report constructs a Convertible Bond Style Rotation Portfolio using Convertible Bond 20-day Momentum and Convertible Bond Volatility Deviation as market sentiment capture indicators, with bi-weekly rebalancing[5][28] - The Convertible Bond Style Market Sentiment Capture Indicator is constructed as follows: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Style Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank}(\text{Convertible Bond 20-day Momentum}) + \text{Rank}(\text{Volatility Deviation}) $$ [29] Model Backtest Results - Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor in equity-biased, balanced, and debt-biased convertible bonds enhanced excess returns of -2.89%, -0.82%, and -0.74% respectively over the past two weeks as of December 12, 2025[5][24] - Equity-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 25.86%, Annualized Volatility 20.68%, Maximum Drawdown 22.94%, IR 1.25, Calmar Ratio 1.13[25] - Balanced Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 14.96%, Annualized Volatility 11.97%, Maximum Drawdown 15.95%, IR 1.25, Calmar Ratio 0.94[25] - Debt-biased Convertible Bond Low Valuation Index: Annualized Return 12.11%, Annualized Volatility 9.83%, Maximum Drawdown 17.78%, IR 1.23, Calmar Ratio 0.68[25] - Convertible Bond Style Rotation: Annualized Return 24.52%, Annualized Volatility 16.81%, Maximum Drawdown 15.89%, IR 1.46, Calmar Ratio 1.54[34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Added Value**: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - **Consumption and Export**: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - **Investment**: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure Optimization**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - **Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - **Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing**: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议强调深入整治 "内卷式"竞争，磷肥市场座谈会在 北京召开—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《关注 BOPET 行业反内卷动向，全球 MDI 价格联动上涨—化工行业周报》 -2025.12.7 《发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞 争成本认定工作座谈会，2026 年中国 钾肥大合同达成 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 抗老化助剂厂家发布涨价函，看好行业景气底部向上 修复、格局优化 ——抗老化助剂行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | 事件：抗老化助剂厂家发布涨价函，看好行业景气底部向上修复、格局优化 12 ...

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than anticipated, indicating a cooling labor market[5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.5%, while the unemployment rate increased, suggesting a divergence in labor market conditions[22] - The share of permanent job losers decreased, while the proportion of temporary and re-employed workers increased, indicating a shift towards short-term employment[28] - Job openings in October were 7.67 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics in the labor market[43] Federal Reserve Outlook - The urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is low, despite signs of a slowing job market[7] - Fed officials anticipate that three rate cuts in 2025 will support the labor market, reducing the immediate need for further cuts[52] - Inflation risks remain, and the Fed is cautious about further rate reductions that could exacerbate inflationary pressures[55] Economic Projections - The Fed's internal forecasts suggest a temporary rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%-4.7% in 2025, but overall stability is expected in the long term[53] - The baseline scenario indicates that the Fed may implement 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the third quarter[55]

2025 年 12 月 17 日 开源晨会 1217 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.316 | | 美容护理 | 0.664 | | 社会服务 | 0.126 | | 食品饮料 | -0.018 | | 交通运输 | -0.421 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.952 | | 综合 | -2.81 | | 有色金属 | -2.809 | | 电力设备 | -2.658 | | 传媒 | -2.414 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点——宏观经济专题-20251216 供需：建筑开工维持弱势，工业开工边际走弱，需求走弱 1.建筑开工：开工率维持历史 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform" [2][4] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has faced a decline in revenue and profit due to price pressures from photovoltaic module manufacturers, which are pushing for lower costs [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the photovoltaic industry, which may lead to a market recovery [4][5] - The company has successfully expanded its product applications in various downstream special fields, particularly in rubber sealing products [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32.05 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 85.12 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.84% [4] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 61.66% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a rise in advance payments [4] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a reduction in excess capacity, with production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules decreasing in December [5] - The company is positioned as a supplier for major players in the petrochemical industry, which is expected to enhance its market presence [6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55.8 for 2025, 52.6 for 2026, and 49.1 for 2027 [4] - The report projects a decline in gross margin, with expectations of 35.6% in 2025, 34.5% in 2026, and 33.6% in 2027 [7][10]