证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][9]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a "small giant" in the rail transit signal field, planning to invest in technology and Bear Robot to enter the unmanned vehicle sector. The growth potential is driven by policy support and industry expansion [5][11]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 73 million, 89 million, and 106 million RMB, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31.7, 26.2, and 22.0 respectively [6][9]. - The company aims to leverage its full subsidiary, Huto Intelligent, to invest in technology and Bear Robot, focusing on high-growth areas such as unmanned delivery and intelligent driving [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Performance - As of July 2, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 17.00 RMB, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2,323.90 million RMB [3]. 2. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 249 million RMB in 2023 to 431 million RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 16.20% [7]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 39 million RMB in 2023 to 106 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24% over three years [8][11]. 3. Industry Overview - The rail transit equipment market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2024, with the market size reaching approximately 12,112 billion RMB by 2025 [20][21]. - The unmanned delivery vehicle market reached a scale of 133.4 billion RMB in 2023, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [27][49]. 4. Company Positioning - The company focuses on equipment monitoring systems and lightning protection systems, with a high customer concentration where the top five clients account for about 70% of sales [8][15]. - The company has obtained 19 patents, including 9 invention patents, which support its competitive edge in the market [8][11]. 5. Investment Logic - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing investment in rail infrastructure, with fixed asset investment in railways projected to exceed 800 billion RMB in 2024 [11][21]. - The intelligent driving sector is poised for growth, with the domestic end delivery market already reaching 133.4 billion RMB in 2023, indicating a strong demand for innovative delivery solutions [11][27].

Group 1: Fixed Income - The prediction for June 2025 includes new loans of CNY 2.1 trillion and social financing of CNY 3.8 trillion, with M2 reaching CNY 329.2 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [6][9] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.8%, with the increase primarily driven by net financing from government and corporate bonds [9][10] - The report anticipates a stable M2 growth and a slight recovery in M1 growth, indicating a gradual improvement in economic activity [8][9] Group 2: Cement Industry - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the cement industry, aiming for a more orderly exit of outdated capacity [11][12] - The industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in profitability, supported by falling coal prices [12][13] - The report suggests that leading companies are actively collaborating to maintain prices, indicating a strong awareness of avoiding "involution" in the industry [13][14] Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The central government aims to eliminate "involution" in competition, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation in the agricultural sector [14][16] - Future agricultural development may leverage biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture to enhance productivity and sustainability [14][16] - The report highlights the importance of companies that balance technological advancement with farmer interests, suggesting that firms like Dekang could lead in this transition [16][17] Group 4: Yada Co., Ltd. - Yada Co., Ltd. specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a significant revenue increase of 24.11% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [22][23] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors, with a focus on digital products [22][23] - Yada's products are widely used in critical infrastructure projects, indicating strong market demand and potential for future growth [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (首次) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing low-price and disorderly competition in the cement industry, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 [5] - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the industry, focusing on aligning actual production capacity with registered capacity [5] - The report notes that while peak-shifting production has helped balance supply and demand, it has limitations, especially when demand declines rapidly [5] - The implementation of policies to address overcapacity is expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacity, potentially reducing actual clinker capacity from over 2.1 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons [5] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve marginally, leading to a recovery in profitability, supported by lower coal prices and a slowdown in demand decline [5] - The report suggests that the industry's anti-involution awareness is strong, with leading companies collaborating to maintain prices, indicating a favorable outlook for profitability [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent emphasis on regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality in the cement industry [5] - It highlights the need for companies to verify discrepancies between registered and actual production capacities [5] Market Dynamics - Peak-shifting production has been effective but faces challenges in maintaining discipline among smaller firms [5] - The report anticipates that strict enforcement of overcapacity policies could lead to significant reductions in actual production capacity [5] Profitability Outlook - The overall profitability of the industry is projected to be better than in 2015, with current trends indicating a recovery in profitability due to favorable coal prices [5] - The report suggests that the combination of capacity reduction and potential mergers will support profitability in the long term [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shifeng Cement, given the positive outlook for the industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a focus on digital products that meet the new demands of new infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.35% year-on-year [5]. - The company has established strong partnerships with well-known domestic and international enterprises, enhancing its market position [5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.76% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [5]. - The gross margin for power measurement and control products was 33.01% in 2024 [5]. Market Potential - The power monitoring industry is expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid development of new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors [5]. - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [5]. - The company has entered the renewable energy sector by establishing a subsidiary focused on investment and operation of solar storage charging stations [5]. Product Development - The company has developed a series of products to meet the digitalization needs, with projects expected to reach operational status by 2026 [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 112 patents, including 25 invention patents [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in response to the increasing demand for smart power monitoring solutions [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 371 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.97% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 26.20% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.20 yuan [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involutionary" competition in the agricultural sector, suggesting that high-quality, low-cost leading companies may benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and the integration of agricultural resources to create a sustainable ecosystem that empowers farmers and drives continuous innovation [6][7] - The report anticipates that the pig farming market, valued at trillions, will see opportunities for technology-driven enterprises that can navigate the challenges of the industry [6] Summary by Sections Production Capacity - As of May, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on stabilizing pig prices and controlling production capacity among leading enterprises [5] Market Performance - The price of live pigs reached a new high of 15.08 yuan/kg on July 1, attributed to a reduction in supply and the release of previous weight reduction pressures [7] - The white-feathered chicken market is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," but overall industry growth is expected to continue [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the seed industry, particularly those with advanced research capabilities, are likely to see sustained performance growth [11] - The pet economy is highlighted as having strong consumer resilience and significant growth potential, with a favorable market structure [10] Industry Trends - The report notes that the agricultural industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture as key areas for future development [7] - The feed industry is characterized as a service-oriented sector with opportunities and risks, requiring companies to balance scale and flexibility [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights the company's operational resilience demonstrated during a warm winter and the optimization of channels that enhance brand visibility [5] - The company has achieved a revenue of 25.902 billion RMB for FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, with a CAGR of 17.7% from FY2021 to FY2025 [7] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on the "dual focus" strategy of concentrating on down jackets and fashionable functional apparel, which drives revenue growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.514 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [7] - The revenue from the brand down jacket business reached 21.668 billion RMB, growing by 11.0% year-on-year, with the main brand and Xuezhongfei contributing to this growth [7] - The OEM business revenue was 3.373 billion RMB, showing a significant increase of 26.4% year-on-year, with the top five clients accounting for 90.4% of the revenue [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3.928 billion RMB, 4.388 billion RMB, and 4.879 billion RMB for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with growth rates of 11.78%, 11.71%, and 11.20% [6][8] - The projected revenue for FY2026 is 28.533 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 10.2% [8] Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its retail strategy through the Top Store model and online-offline collaboration, which has led to a 5.2% increase in direct sales and a 24.3% increase in wholesale revenue for the brand down jacket business [7] - The number of offline stores increased by 253 to a total of 3,470, while online revenue for brand down jackets grew by 9.4% to 7.478 billion RMB [7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, supported by tariff delays and the implementation of existing policies [2][5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [2][7] - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in business activities [5][7] Group 2: Company Overview - Guangzhou Development (600098.SH) - Guangzhou Development is a comprehensive energy platform controlled by the Guangzhou Municipal Government, with a diversified energy industry system including power, energy logistics, gas, new energy, and energy finance [2][9] - As of the end of 2024, the total installed power capacity of the company was 10.26 GW, with significant contributions from coal, gas, wind, and solar power [2][9] - The company has maintained stable performance with continuous dividends for 26 years, achieving a net profit of 1.732 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.73% [2][9] Group 3: Business Segments - The company focuses on thermal power in the Greater Bay Area, benefiting from a decline in coal prices, which enhances the performance elasticity of thermal power [2][10] - The new energy business is rapidly developing, with plans to reach an installed capacity of 8 GW by the end of 2025 [2][10] - The gas segment, primarily in Guangzhou, has shown steady growth, with gas sales volume reaching 2.166 billion cubic meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [2][11] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.849 billion, 2.120 billion, and 2.373 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74%, 14.70%, and 11.91% respectively [2][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to "stabilize the real estate market and the stock market." The emphasis on building quality housing and high-quality residential areas is expected to lead to a development wave for high-quality residential properties [5][49] - The report suggests focusing on real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product strength in core cities, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.7%, the ChiNext Index by 5.7%, and the CSI 300 by 2.0%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 3.1% [5][8] - The top five stocks in terms of increase were: Quzhou Development (+15.5%), Huayuan Holdings (+13.8%), Zhujiang Shares (+10.1%), New Huangpu (+10.1%), and ST Shuyuan (+9.6%) [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 42 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 3.16 million square meters, a 34.1% increase from the previous week, but a 31.7% decrease year-on-year [15] - For June 2025, the total new housing transaction in 42 key cities was 9.13 million square meters, a 12.9% increase month-on-month but a 12.3% decrease year-on-year [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 21 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 2.16 million square meters, a 3.0% increase from the previous week, but a 10.4% decrease year-on-year [32] - For June 2025, the total second-hand housing transaction in 21 key cities was 7.97 million square meters, a 5.8% increase month-on-month and a 2.6% decrease year-on-year [36] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for new technologies and materials to create safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing [46] - Several cities, including Hangzhou, Jinan, and Tianjin, have adjusted their housing provident fund policies to enhance support for homebuyers [46] Company Announcements - Poly Developments announced a green asset-backed securities plan with a priority asset scale of 1.354 billion yuan and a 2.50% interest rate over 18 years [49] - China Overseas Development plans to list its project in Foshan through a public infrastructure securities investment fund, expecting to raise 1.355 billion yuan [49]