证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 艾芬豪 2025Q2 铜产量同比增长 11%至 11.20 万 吨，锌产量达到 4.18 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 [Table_Author] 分析师：晏溶 邮箱：yanrong@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120519100004 相关研究： 1.《行业点评|艾芬豪 2025Q1 铜产量同比增长 54.58%至 13.3 万吨，锌产量达到 4.27 万吨》 2025.4.9 2.《行业点评|艾芬豪矿业公布 Kamoa-Kakula ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q2，1、2、3 期选矿厂共研磨了 362 万吨矿石，生产了 112,009 吨铜，同比增长 11%。2025 年上半年的铜产量共计 245,127 吨。 6 月份，Kamoa-Kakula 一期、二期和三期选矿厂共生产铜 28,14 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：挑战 3500 复盘与思考: 7 月 8 日，科技与"反内卷"成为股市上涨的两股重要推力，盘中上证指数接近 3500 点；风险偏好回暖与 资金略微收紧的双重压力下，债市各期限收益率普遍上行。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘受红利概念拖累，涨幅适中，上证指数、沪深 300 上涨 0.70%、0.84%，中证红 利指数小幅下跌 0.05%；科技、光伏板块齐发力，双创表现较为亮眼，科创 50、创业板指上涨 1.40%、2.39%； 小微盘表现同样不弱，中证 2000、万得微盘股指上涨 1.29%、0.80%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率分别 上行 0.3bp、0.5bp 至 1.64%、1.86%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.08%、0.22%。 新一轮对等关税税率陆续揭晓，但资本市场暂不急于对此定价。7 月 8 日凌晨，美方陆续公布了包括日本、 韩国、老挝、缅甸在内等 14 个国家的对等关税新税率，从结果来看，其中 8 个国家税率下调，4 个国家税率维 持原状，2 ...

Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43%, closing at 3965.17, indicating a divergence in market performance [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index experienced declines of 1.21% and 0.66% respectively, reflecting weakness in the innovation-driven sectors [2] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.10 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 0.35 basis points to 1.86% [2] - The issuance of new special government bonds was announced, with a 20-year bond issuance of 400 billion and a 30-year bond issuance of 830 billion, indicating a shift in supply structure [5][6] Commodity Market Trends - The photovoltaic industry chain saw price increases, with polysilicon and industrial silicon rising by 2.86% and 0.69% respectively, driven by government policy signals [3] - The black metals sector continued to show weakness, with coking coal leading the decline at 1.76% [4] Sector Performance - The electric power sector rose by 1.65%, supported by high electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [7] - The real estate index increased by 1.75%, driven by expectations of policy optimization in the Shenzhen housing market [7] - The cross-border payment index rose by 2.37%, linked to the People's Bank of China's consultation on new regulations [7] Market Dynamics - The overall market showed a significant reduction in trading volume, with total turnover at 1.20 trillion, down 227.5 billion from the previous week [6] - The market is experiencing a structural shift, with funds flowing into new narratives while other sectors like coal and pharmaceuticals faced outflows [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The land transfer fees rebounded in the first half of 2025 after four years of decline, with significant differentiation among cities. The core cities increased the supply of high - quality land, attracting market - oriented real estate enterprises to bid, which is expected to boost the real estate sales volume at the end of the year. The supply of land in core cities may decrease in the second half of the year, and the market - oriented real estate enterprises' land - acquisition scale may decline, while the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies may increase [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First half of the year: Land transfer fees rebounded and cities were highly differentiated - After reaching a peak of 8.2 trillion yuan in 2020, the land transfer fees decreased for four consecutive years. From January to June 2025, they reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The rebound was mainly due to core cities increasing the supply of core land plots and the cancellation of price - limit policies, leading to high - premium competition among developers [5]. - The concentration of land auction amounts in key cities increased. The top 3, top 5, and top 15 cities in terms of transfer fees accounted for about 1/4, 1/3, and 1/2 of the national market share respectively, 6 - 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][5]. - Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu stood out with high transfer fees and premium rates. After excluding these four cities, the transfer fees from January to June increased by only 0.4% year - on - year. After excluding the top 15 cities, the transfer fees decreased by 6% [1][14]. - Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Sichuan had relatively good land auction performances. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai had strong market - oriented land - acquisition forces, with transfer fees ranging from 700 billion to 220 billion yuan from January to June, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 20%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies below 20%. Guangdong and Sichuan had transfer fees between 650 billion and 800 billion yuan, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 40%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies between 20 - 40%. Nearly half of the provinces and cities had weak land markets, with 14 provinces and cities experiencing negative year - on - year growth in transfer fees, and 4 provinces (Jiangxi, Jilin, Shaanxi, Shandong) having a decline of over 25% [14]. 3.2 Second half of the year: The land supply in core cities may weaken, focus on Shanghai's July land auction - In July 2025, the starting price of land supply was 214.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 29%, indicating a weakening of overall land supply. The month - on - month decline in supply suggests that the transfer fees in July will likely be negative, but the year - on - year figure may be flat or have a minimum decline of 11% [2][18]. - In terms of high - value land plots (starting price over 2 billion yuan), most were concentrated in Shanghai in July. The starting price of Shanghai's land supply in July increased by 156% year - on - year and 18% month - on - month, involving prime locations such as Nanjing West Road and North Bund. It is expected that the land auction in Shanghai will remain hot in July. There was also one high - value land plot each in Suzhou and Hangzhou, with starting prices of 4.3 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively [2][19]. - This year, the land supply in core cities may follow a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. Market - oriented real estate enterprises may reduce their land - acquisition scale in the second half, while urban investment companies may enter the land auction market in non - core cities. According to historical data since 2021, the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies usually rises in the fourth quarter, especially from November to December, reaching over 60% on average and over 80% in some third - and fourth - tier cities [2][22].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the foldable screen mobile phone sector is positive, with expectations for accelerated growth driven by Apple's entry into the market [4]. Core Insights - The foldable screen mobile phone market is set to grow significantly, with global shipments projected to reach 17.8 million units in 2024 and potentially 70 million units by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 57.8% from 2024 to 2027 [1][20]. - Apple's anticipated launch of a foldable iPhone in 2026 is expected to further stimulate market growth and increase shipments [20]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional smartphones to innovative foldable designs, which are becoming the new standard in mobile technology [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Foldable Screen Mobile Phones - The global smartphone market is rebounding, with a projected shipment of 1.238 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [12]. - Foldable screen technology is recognized as a key innovation in the smartphone sector, addressing the need for larger screens while maintaining portability [15]. - The market is characterized by a shift towards lighter and more affordable foldable devices, with average prices decreasing significantly [31]. 2. Hinge Technology - Hinges are critical components in foldable phones, requiring high durability and precision, with designs evolving towards lighter and more robust solutions [38]. - The predominant hinge types are water-drop and U-shaped, with water-drop designs becoming the preferred choice due to their reduced screen wear and improved folding mechanics [40]. - The global market for foldable phone hinges is expected to grow from approximately $3.2 billion in 2024 to $15.4 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 21.69% [47]. 3. Cover Glass Technology - Flexible cover glass is essential for foldable screens, with ultra-thin glass (UTG) increasingly replacing traditional materials due to its superior properties [3]. - The market share of UTG in domestic foldable smartphones has risen to 70% in 2023, indicating a strong trend towards this material [3]. - The production of UTG involves complex manufacturing processes, with a focus on improving yield and consistency [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key beneficiaries in the foldable screen supply chain, including: - UTG: Lens Technology - Hinges: Linyang Precision, Tonglian Precision, and Jingyan Technology - Liquid Metal: Yian Technology - 3D Printing: Huashu High-Tech and Plit [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig farming sector amidst stricter environmental regulations and rising pork prices, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [2][12] - The report highlights the expected increase in autumn grain production, driven by favorable soil conditions and government initiatives aimed at enhancing crop yields [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The current main flood season poses risks for agricultural disasters, with regional droughts and floods expected [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, focusing on key crops and regions [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development in the planting sector, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 15.17 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.97% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach 40.42 million by May 2025, with a slight increase from previous periods [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2435.68 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.52 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [27] - Rice: The average price is 2892 yuan/ton, remaining stable [32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.30% [39] - Cotton: The average price is 15130 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.54% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.69 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [50] - Vitamin E averages 69.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.16% [57]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The demand ratio for commercial spaces in the global trade center for baby and beauty products has exceeded 14:1, highlighting the strong appeal of Yiwu as a trading hub [1] - The company expects a net profit of 1.63 to 1.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57% to 17.40% [1][39] - The first batch of 389 jewelry industry shops in the global trade center has seen a bidding demand ratio of 4.25:1, indicating significant market interest [1] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Kid King, Small Commodity City, and Jihong Co., with expected profit increases of 50% to 100% for Kid King and 13% to 17% for Small Commodity City [4][35][39] - Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit of 130.16 to 137.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97% to 108% [5][31] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1. Recovery of offline traffic benefiting traditional retail [6] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology benefiting related companies [6] 3. Increased consumer willingness to pay for emotional value benefiting new retail [6] 4. Recovery of cyclical sectors under domestic demand policies [6] 5. Expanding overseas consumption opportunities for domestic brands [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The GB300 is expected to start volume production in the second half of the year, with significant advancements in AI performance and capabilities [1][8] - The central government emphasizes high-quality development of the marine economy, with wind power generation rapidly increasing, accounting for over 12% of total power generation [2][10] - There is a strong growth in overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprises, driving high capital expenditure in AI [3][14] Summary by Sections GB300 Launch - CoreWeave announced the first market delivery of the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72, featuring advanced AI performance with over exaflop capabilities and significant improvements in user response speed and throughput [1][8] Marine Economy Development - The central government is focusing on enhancing the marine economy through policy support and encouraging social capital participation, with wind power generation capacity rapidly increasing [2][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the AI capital expenditure and related sectors, highlighting the growth potential in the optical module industry and PCB supply chain [3][14] - Specific beneficiary stocks include NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication in the optical module sector, and China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom in the telecommunications sector [3][16][17] - The marine economy sector is also highlighted, with companies like Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optic-Electric being potential beneficiaries [4][15]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in instant retail orders, with Meituan's daily orders surpassing 120 million, driven by seasonal demand and substantial subsidies from platforms like Taobao [1][8][9] - Taobao Flash Sale has initiated a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in a remarkable increase in order volumes for participating brands [2][9] - The report notes that the baby and personal care product sectors have seen a strong response in a recent recruitment drive, with over 13,000 companies signing up, indicating robust interest from major industry players [3][11] Group 2 - The report provides insights into the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 2.34% during the week [15][18] - It mentions the performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US market, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index showing a slight increase of 0.17% [23][24] - The report discusses the ongoing trends in the restaurant and tourism sectors, highlighting the expansion of various brands and the impact of new financing initiatives on the hospitality industry [34][41]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate towards mass production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and domestic companies' strong demand for core component localization, presenting significant market opportunities [1][14] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing stable growth, with several companies reporting increased delivery volumes, driven by the maturation of solid-state battery technology and supportive policies [2][18] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing improved supply-side expectations, with measures to address overcapacity being anticipated, which could lead to a positive marginal change in the industry [3][26] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The launch of the fourth-generation frameless torque motor and hollow driver by the company is expected to enhance the performance and reliability of humanoid robots, with strong domestic demand for localization of core components [1][13] - The entry of major tech companies into the humanoid robot market is expected to accelerate industrialization, with significant opportunities for component suppliers [14][15] New Energy Vehicles - In June 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported stable month-on-month delivery volumes, with companies like NIO and Xpeng showing growth, while others like Li Auto experienced declines [2][17] - The introduction of new technologies such as solid-state batteries is expected to enhance vehicle performance and reduce costs, contributing to the overall growth of the new energy vehicle market [18][19] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is addressing overcapacity issues, with government and industry discussions focusing on improving product quality and reducing low-price competition [25][26] - Companies involved in silicon material production and high-efficiency battery technologies are expected to benefit from upcoming supply-side adjustments and cost reductions [3][26][32] - The anticipated reduction in glass production by 30% is expected to alleviate inventory and pricing pressures in the photovoltaic glass market [3][26] Wind Power - The offshore wind power sector is recognized as a key component of marine economic development, with significant growth potential due to advancements in technology and cost reductions [4][28] - The industry is expected to benefit from a stable demand for wind power generation, with ongoing projects and technological improvements enhancing the overall efficiency of wind energy production [28][44]