Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for industrial silicon is "oscillating", and for polysilicon is also "oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price lacks obvious rebound momentum. The futures market rebounded this week possibly due to factors such as following the coking coal rebound, increased spot holding willingness, and concerns about insufficient delivery products. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and one can consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - For polysilicon, whether leading enterprises reduce production will significantly affect the fundamentals. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. A strategy of short - term short and long - term long can be considered, with the key being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [4][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon increased by 55 yuan/ton to 7345 yuan/ton, while the SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 8150 yuan/ton and Xinjiang 99 at 7600 yuan/ton. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1045 yuan/ton to 33695 yuan/ton, and the N - type re -投料 transaction price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 36700 yuan/ton [10] 2. Spot Lacks Rebound Momentum, Pessimistic Mood Prevails at SNEC Exhibition - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. The weekly production was 7.31 tons, with a monthly increase of 4.18%. Sichuan has entered the wet season, and some silicon plants have resumed production. Yunnan may start in July, but no clear electricity price discount has been given, and most plants do not plan to work. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.32 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the current level of supply contraction does not support a significant rebound in spot prices for industrial silicon [2][12] - **Silicone**: This week, the silicon price continued to decline. The overall enterprise operating rate was about 70.44%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.91pct. The weekly, with a month - on - month growth of 1.02%. Supply has picked up, demand is weak, and inventory has piled up, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [13] - **Polysilicon**: This week, the prices of the main futures contract of polysilicon oscillated downward. The production schedule for June is expected to remain at 96,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons. As of June 12, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 275,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a major impact on the fundamentals [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of June 12, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 19.34GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68GW. The production schedule for June is 55GW, which may lead to continued inventory accumulation. Leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, and prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Battery Cells**: This week, battery cell prices continued to decline. The production schedule for June is expected to be 53GW, and the inventory is still accumulating. As of June 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 14.98GW, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14GW. Battery cell production cuts are slow, and leading enterprises are engaged in price wars, so prices are expected to face downward pressure [14] - **Components**: This week, component prices were basically stable. The production schedule for June is about 50GW, with a month - on - month decrease of 10%. Demand is expected to weaken significantly from July to August. Domestic component demand faces pressure, and overseas restocking willingness needs to be observed in the second half of the year. Component prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: Consider short - selling lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large manufacturers [4][16] - **Polysilicon**: Adopt a strategy of short - term short and long - term long, and pay attention to the production - cut actions of leading enterprises. Manage positions carefully when building positions on the left - hand side [4][16] 4. Hot News Compilation - Zhu Gongshan pointed out at the 2025 SNEC PV+ International Photovoltaic Conferences that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes: abnormal industrial evolution curve, rewritten market development logic, and extended industrial boundary attributes [17] - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic component project was publicly announced. The project is located in Wuzhong, Ningxia, with a total investment of 300 million yuan [17] - Anhui Huasheng's 3.3GW silicon wafer technical renovation and expansion project's environmental assessment was accepted. After the project is completed, the silicon wafer production capacity will increase from 2.7GW to 6GW [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [20][22][26] - **Silicone**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventories, and weekly production [29][30] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [33][34] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventories, and enterprise weekly production [35][38][39] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventories, and enterprise monthly production [41][43][47] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventories, and enterprise monthly production [49][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Key Hub Monitoring 20250612 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Department: Black and Shipping Department [1] - Analyst: Lan Xi [1] - Qualification Number: F03086543 [1] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coastal regional fog and the start of the typhoon season, along with the export peak season, have affected domestic port operations and worsened congestion, making it difficult for domestic ports to recover in the short term. The Port of Klang is operating under overload, and port congestion remains high. North American ports are operating well, but an increase in incoming goods is expected, and attention should be paid to potential regional congestion [2]. Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - In the Yangshan and Waigaoqiao ports, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 16.9 hours/24.3 hours and 13.8 hours/18.0 hours respectively, with the latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed being 24/30 and 35/27. In the Port of Ningbo, the corresponding times are 11.9 hours/26.3 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 24/38. In the Port of Qingdao, the times are 20.6 hours/43.2 hours. In the Port of Singapore, the times are 3.4 hours/29.8 hours, with 8/47 ships at anchor/berthed. In the Port of Klang, the times are 31.0 hours/28.6 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 19/22 [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and Klang ports are 40.0 hours, 36.9 hours, 33.0 hours, and 60.7 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by - 3.4 hours, - 4.5 hours, 0.8 hours, and 5.0 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by 14.2 hours, 0.8 hours, - 6.7 hours, and 1.4 hours [6]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 11.9 hours/49.1 hours, 23.2 hours/41.9 hours, 9.3 hours/42.4 hours, and 14.9 hours/37.6 hours respectively. The latest number of container ships at anchor/berthed are 0/22, 6/17, 6/17. In Valencia, the corresponding times are 3.0 hours/36.5 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 4/12 [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Rotterdam and Hamburg ports are 61.0 hours and 51.2 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by 3.5 hours and - 15.5 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by 7.7 hours and - 9.3 hours [6]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/88.1 hours, 1.5 hours/85.8 hours, and 0 hours/78.0 hours respectively. The number of container ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles is 0, and the number of berthed ships is 18. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, the corresponding times are 6.7 hours/44.7 hours, 17.5 hours/36.1 hours, and 5.6 hours/22.7 hours. In New York, the number of ships at anchor/berthed is 0/9. In the Port of Houston, the times are 10.3 hours/47.9 hours [2]. - The latest average stay in port for Long Beach, Los Angeles, and New York ports are 77.2 hours, 85.2 hours, and 50.4 hours respectively. Compared to the previous month, they changed by - 11.3 hours, - 9.5 hours, and 5.5 hours; compared to the same period last year, they changed by - 30.6 hours, - 16.5 hours, and 1.5 hours [6]. Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports are presented in graphs [10][12][16]. European Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in port in Europe, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in Northwest European and Valencia ports, and the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean ports are presented in graphs [19][21][24]. North American Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in North American ports, the average waiting time, berthing time, and stay in port for ocean - going container ships in North American ports, and the scale of container ships in port in North America are presented in graphs [34][37][40]. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - Data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, the arrival of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asian, Northwest European, and Mediterranean ports, and the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are presented in graphs [42][49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, leading to a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure and the US dollar index remaining volatile [1][14][17][19]. - Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. In the future, the strength of China's domestic economic recovery will gradually play a more important role in pricing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of incremental policies [2][28]. - The market does not think the result of Sino - US trade negotiations is beyond expectations. Coupled with the news that the central bank is evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchase, treasury bond futures are relatively strong [3]. - Steel prices are oscillating. Although the current fundamental contradictions are not significant, the rainy season in East China has significantly suppressed the demand for building materials, and concerns about weakening external demand are difficult to reverse, so there is limited room for price rebound [4][40]. - After the stabilization of the futures market last week, the price of FMB ore has rebounded slightly recently. It remains to be seen whether the ore price can stabilize at $600 [5][65]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Tensions in the Middle East have led to market concerns and a sharp increase in oil prices [6][70]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US budget deficit in May was $316 billion, a reduction compared to May 2024. The total customs duties in May reached a record $23 billion, almost four times that of May 2024. The budget expenditure in May was at a record high for that month [13]. - The US May CPI was lower than market expectations. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, mainly driven by geopolitical risks. The market's concerns about the Fed's monetary policy have weakened, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the June meeting. Gold has not broken out of the volatile range, and the market's long - short game has increased. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range with increased market fluctuations [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government's fiscal deficit in May further expanded. Although the deficit in May 2025 decreased by 9% compared to May 2024, the annual deficit increased by 14% year - on - year [16]. - The US May CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI's month - on - month growth rate significantly decreasing, indicating a short - term slowdown in inflation pressure. The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated. The US has ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Iraq and allowed military families to leave the Middle East [21]. - The US May CPI has been lower than expected for four consecutive months. The CPI growth rate was lower than expected, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. However, the slow progress of US - EU negotiations and the deterioration of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in US stocks. US stocks have not broken out of the volatile market, and it is not recommended to chase the high [22][24][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will implement zero - tariff policies on 100% of tariff items for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [26]. - Sino - US negotiations have reached a framework on the Geneva Consensus. Affected by the rapid progress of Sino - US negotiations, the risk appetite of the stock market has risen again. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [28][29]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [30]. - Sino - US negotiations have basically reached a framework on implementing the Geneva Consensus. The market has strengthened due to the logic of disappointing Sino - US trade negotiations and weak domestic economic data. It is recommended to actively seize the opportunity to buy bonds and accumulate long positions [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its export sales report on Thursday. The market expects that the net increase in US soybean export sales for the current year as of June 5 will be between 1 - 5 million tons, and for the 25/26 year, it will be between 0 - 2 million tons [32]. - On June 11, the transaction volume of soybean meal was large. The import of Brazilian soybeans has decreased in cost, and domestic funds have shown a clear trend of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report [33][35][36]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The production of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 10 decreased by 17.24% month - on - month. The palm oil market adjusted yesterday, with palm oil leading the decline. It is believed that palm oil is in the bottom - building stage, and long positions can be considered [37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The steel price continues to oscillate, and there is limited room for price rebound. It is recommended to use the spot end for hedging on price rebounds [38][40]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of early June, over 90% of Australia's new cotton has been harvested, and the total output is expected to be 5.4 million bales. As of June 7, the sowing progress of US new cotton is still behind. The external market is expected to remain weakly volatile at a low level in the short term. Domestically, the textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic [41][43][44]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On June 11, the price of steam coal in the northern ports remained stable. The coal price has temporarily stabilized, but there is a risk of a second bottom - hitting in summer. Attention should be paid to the growth rate of thermal power consumption and the substitution of new energy [45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Many automobile enterprises have promised to pay within 60 days. The overall market sentiment has eased, and the iron ore futures price has rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are seasonally weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile. An oscillating market mindset is recommended [46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - In May, the sales volume and revenue of some pig - raising enterprises decreased year - on - year. In the short to medium term, the price may be at its most pessimistic from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. In the long term, the industry bottom may be approaching. It is recommended to wait and see [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. The supply - demand structure is improving. CS07 - C07 is expected to remain volatile at a low level, and CS09 - C09 is expected to recover, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continues to decline rapidly, and the spot price of corn has strengthened. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with an oscillating trend. It is recommended to hold the 07 long - positions with low costs and wait and see, and not to transfer the long - positions to the 09 contract [52][53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing three major changes. In June, the fundamentals are bearish for the futures market. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production to support prices will have a significant impact on the fundamentals. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is recommended, with the catalyst/risk being the production - cut actions of leading enterprises [54][55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. In June, some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, while most in Yunnan are still observing. The demand is not significantly improved. The futures price is expected to be volatile at a low level, and short - selling on price rebounds can be considered [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.55 per ton. The demand for lead has bottomed out and shows no improvement, while supply disruptions are the main factor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - line low - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On June 10, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $33.05 per ton. The zinc price has oscillated upwards, mainly due to improved macro - sentiment. In June, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to peak, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will gradually emerge. Short - selling on price rebounds is recommended [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Philippines has removed the ban on nickel ore exports from its mining fiscal system bill. The LME has reduced inventory, and SHFE has increased warehouse receipts. The nickel price is expected to be volatile at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side of the futures market and consider selling put options on price dips [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027. The inventory accumulation pressure in June has been significantly relieved, and the market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking state. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [64][65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China is stable, and the US C3 inventory has increased. The domestic futures price is expected to be supported by the strengthening of oil prices [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US has authorized the voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory has decreased significantly. Oil prices have risen significantly due to Middle East tensions, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to increase [68][70][71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On June 11, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was partially adjusted downwards. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The decline of the 09 contract is limited due to good supply - demand and excessive discount [72][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market has mostly declined. The futures price is expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder in the domestic market is oscillating. The futures price is also expected to be volatile, as the fundamental changes are limited and the macro - sentiment has temporarily stopped improving [77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - On June 11, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased. The styrene futures price is oscillating upwards. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential compression of intermediate - link profits after the return of downstream plants and the potential impact of new production capacity in the medium term [78][80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with some local decreases. The industry is facing high supply pressure and low processing fees. It is recommended to consider taking long positions in bottle - chip processing fees on price dips [81][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On June 11, the soda ash market in Shahe was average, and the futures price was oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds in the medium term [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On June 11, the price of float glass in Shahe was mostly stable. The futures price is slightly oscillating, and the fundamental driving force is weak. With the arrival of the high - temperature and rainy season, the demand for glass will decline seasonally, and the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. The spot price may continue to decline [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 10, 2025, cast aluminum alloy options were officially listed for trading. The market performance on the first trading day was stable, with a total trading volume of 8,485 lots. The trading was concentrated on the main contract AD2511, indicating a certain bullish sentiment in the market. [1][21] - The implied volatility of cast aluminum alloy options is slightly higher than the historical volatility of the spot. The price of cast aluminum alloy on the spot side has limited downward space, but there is pressure on the subsequent social inventory to accumulate. The price on the disk can be traded in the short - term range. [2][33] - Speculative strategies can consider constructing short strangles to earn Theta income. Hedging strategies include upstream enterprises buying put options to hedge the risk of falling sales prices, or constructing covered strategies by selling out - of - the - money call options, and combining them to construct collar strategies. [3][33][34] Summary by Directory 1. Cast Aluminum Alloy Option Compliance Rules - **Listing and Contracts**: Cast aluminum alloy options were officially listed for trading on the night session of June 10, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts were the option contracts corresponding to the AD2511 and AD2512 futures contracts. The contract details include the contract subject, type, trading unit, etc. [1][9][11] - **Pricing and Limits**: The listing benchmark price is calculated by the binomial tree option pricing model. The daily limit is ±7%, and it is twice that on the first day. The maximum order quantity per order is 100 lots. [9][10] - **Exercise and Position Management**: It is an American - style option. The option and futures contracts are separately limited in position. The cast aluminum alloy options and futures share the approved hedging trading positions. [14][16][18] - **Fees**: The trading fee is 10 yuan per lot, and the fee for closing positions on the same day is temporarily waived. From the listing date to December 31, 2025, the hedging trading fee is halved. [19] 2. First - Day Trading Situation - The total trading volume on the first trading day was 8,485 lots, concentrated on the main contract AD2511, accounting for 28.89% of the AD2511 futures trading volume. The trading volume PCR was 52.99%, the open interest PCR was 77.64%, and the turnover PCR/volume PCR was 94.92%, indicating a certain bullish sentiment. [1][21] - The trading and open interest of the main options were mainly concentrated in the slightly out - of - the - money and deeply out - of - the - money areas. The main strike prices of call options were concentrated at 19,500 yuan/ton and 21,400 yuan/ton, and those of put options were at 19,200 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton. [22] 3. Volatility Situation - The AD2511 option has 93 trading days until expiration. The 90 - trading - day volatility of the current spot price is 10.42%, and the historical one - year minimum, average, and maximum are 8.47%, 11.25%, and 12.48% respectively. The 90 - trading - day volatility of the Shanghai aluminum futures index is 12.06%. [2][25][26] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money option of cast aluminum alloy is 12.60%, higher than the historical volatility of the spot and Shanghai aluminum futures. The option implied volatility shows a relatively smooth volatility smile distribution, providing a certain safety margin for the short - option strategy. [2][26] 4. Option Synthetic Futures Arbitrage Test The premium rate of the synthetic futures of cast aluminum alloy main options is between - 0.36% and 0.19%, indicating that the market prices the options reasonably and there are no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [30] 5. Option Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: From May to August is the traditional off - season for aluminum alloys. The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has limited downward space, but there is pressure on social inventory to accumulate. The price on the disk can be traded in the short - term range, with support at 19,000 yuan/ton and resistance at 19,800 yuan/ton. [3][33] - **Speculative Strategy**: Construct short strangles to earn Theta income, but pay attention to risk control. [3][33] - **Hedging Strategy**: Upstream enterprises can buy put options, sell out - of - the - money call options, or combine them to construct collar strategies. [3][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the Xinjiang methanol market has ample supply due to new capacity, with an expected 1.3 million tons/year and a growth rate of about 28%. This may ease the previous supply tightness and benefit downstream enterprises, but there are still issues with goods circulation [1][13]. - The downstream consumption structure of methanol in Xinjiang is diverse, mainly including olefins, BDO, silicone, and formaldehyde. However, the overall profitability is weak, and the downstream demand is relatively weak compared to the previous year, resulting in a lackluster market price. External demand is needed to relieve the supply pressure [2][17]. - Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply to some extent. The cancellation of hazardous chemical transportation qualifications at railway freight stations and high road - transport costs limit the connection between Xinjiang's methanol supply and the external market. However, it may promote the growth of local demand [3][18]. - From the cost perspective, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Background and Purpose of the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain Research - From 2020 to the present, the Xinjiang methanol market has developed rapidly. With policy support, downstream industries have been continuously put into production, driving the demand for methanol in the region. Most of the methanol in Xinjiang is for self - use, with a small amount for export. The research aims to understand the production and sales of regional enterprises in 2024 and 2025, raw material costs, the impact of methanol prices on production, and growth opportunities in the BDO industry [12] 2. Core Conclusions of the Research - **Supply Situation**: The Xinjiang methanol market has a relatively loose supply due to new capacity. The release of methanol capacity may ease the previous supply tightness, but there are problems with goods circulation [13] - **Downstream Consumption and Profitability**: The downstream consumption structure is diverse, but the profitability is weak. The profitability of BDO, formaldehyde, and silicone has declined compared to 2024, leading to weaker downstream demand and a lackluster market price [17] - **Transportation Impact**: Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply but may promote local demand. The cancellation of railway transportation qualifications and high road - transport costs limit the connection with the external market [18] 3. Detailed Research on the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain 3.1 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise A - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream deep - processing enterprise with about 1 million tons of ethylene glycol, about 200,000 tons of BDO, and about 900,000 tons of methanol production capacity [29] - **Business Model and Sales Strategy**: It mainly sells within Xinjiang and exports a small amount outside. It can adjust the sales ratio according to price differences. Most of the long - term contracts are in the "locked - quantity and open - price" mode, and spot trading is the main sales method. It currently relies on road transportation, and the traditional export destinations are Southwest China, Shandong, Ningxia, and Hebei [30] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The profitability of the BDO product has weakened, and the operating rate is low. The price is in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan. The core reasons for the market downturn are over - capacity and weak demand [31] - **View on Methanol Price**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year due to increased supply and a more relaxed supply - demand pattern [33] - **Problems and Challenges**: The company lacks railway transportation qualifications and is limited by storage tank capacity, which restricts inventory adjustment and price - fluctuation response [34] - **Transportation and Cost Optimization Strategies**: It plans to obtain railway transportation qualifications and explore cooperation with national pipelines for transportation. It will also optimize procurement and inventory strategies to control costs [35] 3.2 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise B - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream enterprise. After technological transformation, its methanol production capacity has reached 900,000 tons/year, but it is restricted by storage tank capacity and has high export pressure [36] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The BDO industry is in a slump, with over - capacity, weak demand, and price decline, leading to losses and production cuts. The company plans to commission an acetic acid plant and install an acetic anhydride plant, which is expected to make a small profit [37] - **Strategic Planning and Future Strategies**: It explores a pricing mechanism based on the mainland's long - term contract settlement model, extends the industrial chain through methanol - to - ethanol projects, and promotes cooperation with enterprises like Geely to increase demand [38][39][40] - **Outlook on the Xinjiang Methanol Market**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year. In the long term, the industry may gradually get out of trouble with the promotion of methanol fuel applications and industrial chain extension [41] 3.3 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise C - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol downstream enterprise with two 100,000 - ton formaldehyde production lines, consuming about 100,000 tons of methanol annually [42] - **Profitability and Operating Rate**: Only formaldehyde can make a small profit, and the other three products are slightly in the red. The overall production load is about 70% [43] - **Future Planning**: It plans to build methanol storage and trading businesses to better handle price fluctuations and provide potential opportunities for industry cooperation [44] 3.4 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise D - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale chemical enterprise covering coal and coal - chemical industries, with 5 coal mines and production capacities of about 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 500,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of methanol, and 60,000 tons of melamine [45] - **Profitability and Business Planning**: The profitability of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde has declined since May due to the weakening of the national methanol price. The formaldehyde production line's operating rate has dropped to about 70% [46] - **Discussion on Downstream Application Market Expansion**: Methanol vehicles are expected to create incremental demand for methanol. The company also plans to extend the urea industrial chain and explore emerging fields such as methanol - to - olefins and green methanol [47][48] 3.5 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise E - **Enterprise Information**: It currently has a methanol output of about 500,000 tons, with a 100,000 - ton MTG (methanol - to - gasoline) device and a 60,000 - ton polyoxymethylene device under construction. In the future, it will use all its methanol self - sufficiently [49] - **Operating Conditions**: Last year, its production and sales were good, but the export volume decreased due to self - use. The MTG gasoline can basically break even, and the POM product is mainly sold to East and South China, with the market demand yet to be further observed [50] - **Discussion on Energy Prices**: The coal purchase price is in the range of 80 - 170 yuan/ton (including tax at the mine mouth), and the cost increases after adding freight. New energy projects in the Northwest have replaced some coal demand [51] 3.6 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise F - **Enterprise Information**: After technological transformation, its designed methanol production capacity has reached 1 million tons/year [52] - **Operating Conditions**: It uses a "two - on - one - standby" configuration of three furnaces, currently operating only one with a daily output of about 3,000 tons and an operating rate of about 50%. The methanol quality is high [53] - **Inventory Status**: It currently has zero inventory, but inventory pressure may increase if downstream demand is insufficient after double - furnace operation [54] - **View on the Downstream Market**: The demand for traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid has decreased by about 10% due to the real - estate slump [55] - **Transportation Radius and Storage Layout**: The transportation radius within Xinjiang is 300 - 500 kilometers, and the long - distance transportation cost is high. It plans to build a 70,000 - ton warehouse for export storage and trading [56] - **Cost Difference between Coal - to - Methanol and Natural - Gas - to - Methanol**: The cash cost of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest is about 1,300 - 1,500 yuan/ton, while the cost of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest is about 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton [57] - **View on Methanol Price**: In the short term (June - August), the market may oscillate due to postponed maintenance and the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, it depends on macro - economic recovery and methanol - fuel policy implementation [58] 4. Investment Recommendations - Considering the cost side, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic price level in China remains low, with increasing pressure on both exports and imports. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and long - term bond prices are expected to rise. The stock index futures market should be evenly allocated, and caution is advised when chasing high in the US stock index futures market. [14][20][23] - In the commodity market, the oil and fat market is expected to be volatile, and the cotton market is cautiously optimistic. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term. The double - coke market should be treated as a short - term rebound, and caution is needed when chasing high. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term. For non - ferrous metals, different strategies should be adopted according to different metal varieties. In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends, such as low - level volatility in liquefied petroleum gas, weakening of short - term rebound momentum in crude oil, etc. [27][32][39][41][46] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's May export and import data were lower than expected, and inflation data were basically in line with expectations. The central bank conducted 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1738 billion yuan. [12][13][14] - The domestic price level remains low, and the pressure on exports and imports is increasing. The bond market is fundamentally bullish, and it is expected that incremental monetary policies will be introduced in Q3. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. [14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council held a special learning meeting, emphasizing the promotion of the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation through the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued a document to improve people's livelihood. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [16][17][19] - It is recommended to make a balanced allocation. [20] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Amazon plans to invest an additional $10 billion in Pennsylvania, USA. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. [21][22] - The market is waiting for the progress of China - US trade negotiations. It is not recommended to chase high as the US stock market has not escaped the volatile market. [23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of June 6, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in major regions decreased, while the soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased. The international market is waiting for the US biofuel policy and the MPOB May report. [24][25][27] - It is recommended to wait for the release of the MPOB report data. [28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first quarter of 2025, the import of cotton - made clothing in the US increased significantly. From January to May 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 1%. In May, the national cotton commercial inventory continued to decline. [29][30][31] - The textile off - season atmosphere is strong, and the upward movement of the cotton market is restricted. However, considering the possible tight supply in the later period, a cautious and slightly optimistic view is taken. It is necessary to pay attention to China - US trade negotiations and the news of sliding - scale import quotas. [32] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The prices of starch sugar showed mixed trends. It is expected that the substitution between cassava starch and corn starch will enter a bottom - oscillating period, and the开机 rate of starch sugar is expected to increase with the peak - season demand. [33] - CS07 - C07 is expected to remain in low - level oscillation, and CS09 - C09 may be repaired, but there are uncertainties in regional price differences. [33] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat market price showed a weak oscillation, and the corn spot price rose slightly, driving the futures price to rise slightly. [34] - Corn is in a critical period for verifying the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract before the main contract switch, and adopt a bearish approach for new - season contracts after 09. [35] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Pakistan launched an anti - circumvention investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In May, China's steel exports and automobile exports remained at a high level, but the steel exports showed a marginal decline from late May to June. [36][38][39] - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term. It is recommended to take an oscillating approach in the short term and use spot hedging on rebounds. [39][40] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is under pressure, with overall supply remaining loose. The double - coke market rebounded recently, but the spot market is still weak. The supply side is shrinking. [41] - The double - coke fundamentals have not changed significantly in the short term. It is recommended to treat it as a short - term rebound, pay attention to the changes in industrial products, and be cautious when chasing high. It is advisable to wait and see. [41] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of June decreased compared with last year. The US soybean good - rate was in line with expectations. China's soybean imports in May reached a record high, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory continued to rise. [42][43][45] - It is expected that the futures price will be oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US weather and China - US relations. [46] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Domestic silicon wafer prices declined slightly, mainly due to weak demand and lower prices of downstream terminal batteries. There were many negative rumors in the market, but the fundamentals in June were bearish. The silicon material factory is expected to reduce inventory by about 10,000 tons in June. [47][48] - It is recommended to take a short - term bearish and long - term bullish approach, with attention to position management. Pay attention to whether leading enterprises can jointly reduce production to support prices. [49] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project of Xingfa entered the main - structure construction stage. The disk price rose due to rumors but was later refuted. Sichuan entered the wet season, and some silicon factories resumed production. The demand side showed no obvious improvement. [50] - The disk price is close to breaking through the industry's cash cost line. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Dang Sheng Technology successfully developed a high - nickel solid - state single - crystal cathode material. The LME nickel inventory decreased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt increased. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines rose, while that in Indonesia remained stable. [52][53] - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side disk and consider selling put options at low prices. In the medium term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after Q3. [53] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - US lithium - ion battery imports increased by 60% in April. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected, and the inventory accumulation pressure in June was significantly relieved. [54] - It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the central environmental protection inspection team entered Ningxia, delaying the resumption of production of a large - scale recycled lead smelter. The lead ingot inventory in five regions increased. [56][57][58] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the medium term, focusing on the support level around 16,500 yuan. [58] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the zinc ingot inventory in seven regions increased. The zinc price dropped significantly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to be realized. [59][60] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and pay attention to short - selling option opportunities. In terms of arbitrage, wait and see for the time being, and maintain a long - term positive arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [60] 3.3 Energy and Chemical News and Comments 3.3.1 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some terminals in the US Gulf had shipping difficulties, and the spot price in East China was stable. The supply - side expectation has improved, and the further decline in spot prices may be limited. [61][62][63] - It is expected that the price will remain in low - level oscillation with insufficient upward momentum. [63] 3.3.2 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran rejected the US proposal on the Iran nuclear deal. China's crude oil imports in May decreased month - on - month, and refineries entered the de - stocking stage. [64][65] - The short - term rebound momentum is weakening. [66] 3.3.3 Energy Chemical (PX) - The PX price rose and then declined. The supply - side load increased marginally, and the downstream polyester demand was seasonally weak. In the short term, the price may oscillate and adjust, but in the long term, the profit has the potential to repair. [67][68] - The short - term price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the medium - term profit has the potential to repair. [69] 3.3.4 Energy Chemical (PTA) - There are few future maintenance plans for PTA, and the polyester load is decreasing due to the seasonal off - season. The inventory is still being depleted, and the spot basis is strong but lacks further upward momentum. [70][71] - The short - term price faces upward pressure and is expected to oscillate. In the long term, consider going long at low prices. [71] 3.3.5 Energy Chemical (Caustic Soda) - The liquid caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally. The supply decreased due to some enterprises' maintenance, and the demand weakened. [72][73] - The overall decline of commodities drives the 09 contract of caustic soda down, but the large discount on the 09 disk will limit the downward space. [74] 3.3.6 Energy Chemical (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions. The futures price oscillated upward. [74] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate as the fundamental changes in the pulp market are limited and the macro - economic recovery has temporarily ended. [76] 3.3.7 Energy Chemical (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder spot market was slightly adjusted. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. [77] - It is expected that the disk will oscillate weakly as the PVC fundamentals change little and the macro - economic sentiment recovery has ended. [77] 3.3.8 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory increased slightly. The rain in East China affected the demand, but the refinery capacity utilization rate increased, and the overall demand was still stable. [78][79][80] - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate upward. [81] 3.3.9 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot market was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was rational. [82][83] - The urea market is weakly operating recently. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price center may move down. The 09 contract still has some gaming properties. [84] 3.3.10 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The disk price oscillated strongly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be weak. [85] - The styrene market is expected to oscillate recently. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation of pure benzene and the operation of satellite chemical plants and China - US negotiations. [86][87] 3.3.11 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories was mostly stable. The polyester raw material price decreased, and the market transaction was average. An East China polyester bottle - chip device restarted. [88][89][90] - The short - term processing fee is expected to remain at a low level. In June, some large factories have production - reduction plans. It is recommended to go long on the bottle - chip processing fee at low prices. [90] 3.3.12 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased. The spot price was weakly sorted, and the downstream demand was average. [91] - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term as the inventory of soda ash manufacturers and the social inventory are both high, and the cost has decreased. [92] 3.3.13 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The futures price increased slightly, and the fundamentals changed little. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable. [93] - The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will remain stable in the short term. The spot price may decline, and the disk price may be affected by market sentiment. [93]

周度报告——光伏玻璃 截至 6 月 6 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 12 元/平米，环比上周继续下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 20 元/ 平米，亦环比上周下跌。上周处于 6 月新月初议价阶段，由于需 求预期偏弱，而供给预期偏高，市场开始出现低价抢单情况，厂 家报价进一步下滑。 行业预期悲观，光伏玻璃供给或再度下滑 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 6 月 9 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/6/6 当周）： 能 上周光伏玻璃供应端保持稳定，暂无产线新投或冷修。预计本周 光伏玻璃厂家将陆续开始出现减产或转产现象，供给或将再度开 启下行趋势。 源 化 工 6 月组件厂家排产预期降幅加大，光伏玻璃消费将明显缩减，市 场惶恐情绪较重。为避免后期高库存压力，光伏玻璃厂家开始自 主降价加速出货，同时组件端也存在压价行为。 预计 6 月份光伏玻璃需求端缩水幅度较大，而同期供应端减量节 奏难以匹配，将导致市场供需差进一步加大，当前光伏玻璃厂家 库存已经处于高位，后续仍有进一步累库空间。 ★ 供需分析： 随着行业供需差扩大，光伏玻璃厂家对后市预期悲观，开始自主 降价加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | Commodities | Sideways | | A-shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, trade conflict expectations fluctuated, with tariff changes being the main market trading theme. The US May non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, delaying the market's interest rate cut expectations to September and December. Risk appetite declined at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Friday. Different assets had varying understandings and trades regarding trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be resolved. In the short term, trade conflicts are not expected to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains severe [6]. - The global risk appetite continued to recover this week, with most of the equity markets rising. The US dollar weakened, while other currencies generally strengthened. The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. The commodity index increased significantly, and the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally [8][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Trade conflict expectations were volatile this week, and tariff changes dominated market trading. The US May non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a US economic recession, delaying interest rate cut expectations. Different assets showed different responses to trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be addressed. In the short term, trade conflicts are unlikely to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains challenging [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Most of the global equity markets rose this week. Among developed markets, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the German DAX index rose 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined slightly by 0.6%. Among emerging markets, most indices recorded gains, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 2.2%, the Saudi All-Share Index rising 1.7%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.1%. In the MSCI global index, most national indices rose, with emerging markets > frontier markets > emerging markets > developed markets [8][9]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar weakened this week, while other currencies generally strengthened. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% and fluctuated around 100. Among emerging markets, the Brazilian real appreciated 2.87%, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.7%, the Thai baht appreciated 0.45%, and the onshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.15%. Among developed markets, the South Korean won appreciated significantly by 1.65%, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.91%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.55% [10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.51%, the eurozone government bond yield rose slightly to 2.61%, the Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.48%, and the Singapore government bond yield dropped significantly to 2.22%. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield fell slightly to 1.66%, and the Brazilian government bond yield rose significantly to 14.18% [15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The commodity index increased significantly this week. WTI crude oil rose 6.55% to $64.8 per barrel, natural gas rose 9.8%, and the metal sector generally closed higher. COMEX gold rose slightly by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, LME copper rose 1.82%, and COMEX silver soared 9.4%. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally, with the black index rising significantly by 3.9%, and the performance ranking as black > agricultural products > precious metals > non-ferrous metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals [21][22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - The change in the US foreign tariff policy remains the short-term core focus of the market. Overall, the room for further deterioration of short-term tariffs is limited, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall, with the high point gradually decreasing. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements maintain a hawkish and pause interest rate cut tone, which is bearish for gold from a fundamental perspective. The CFTC gold speculative net long positions stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly. The London silver price soared last week, and the gold-silver ratio quickly recovered. The silver's catch-up rally may indicate a phased peak for precious metals [31][35][44]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The economic data released this week showed that the economic fundamentals are under increasing downward pressure, while the labor market remains resilient. The US dollar index is in a tug-of-war, and the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach in the short term. The market's expectation of a cooling of trade conflicts has increased, but the second round of trade negotiations may be more difficult than the first. In the short term, the US dollar index will maintain a sideways trend [45]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The market continued to trade around tariff changes this week. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders released a positive signal, boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, as the expiration of the tariff suspension in July approaches, the risk of increased tariff pressure still exists. The US economic data continues to decline, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday maintained resilience, further alleviating market recession concerns. The market's expectation of the economy is relatively optimistic, but if the inflation data rebounds more than expected next week, it will still bring correction risks to US stocks [50]. 3.3.4 Commodities - This week, the top gainers in the domestic market included silver, coking coal, tin, INE crude oil, coke, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, methanol, rubber, and CSI 500, while the top losers included ferrosilicon, urea, pulp, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, rapeseed meal, live pigs, PTA, styrene, and corn starch. The gainers were concentrated in the industrial products sector, while the losers were concentrated in agricultural products [61]. 3.3.5 A-shares - Recently, with the success of the market's bet on the "taco" trade, the probability of the outperformance of micro-cap growth stocks has increased, leading to a divergence in industry gains. Among the A-share CITIC first-level industries, 23 rose (20 last week) and 7 fell (10 last week). The leading industry was communications (+5.06%), and the industry with the largest decline was home appliances (-1.75%) [68]. 3.3.6 Treasury Bonds - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expectation level, and the market may experience fluctuations, the long-term upward trend is relatively clear. Currently, the bond bull market is in the accumulation phase, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish approach [28]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model predicts that the Q2 growth rate will rebound to 3.8%. As the intensity of import rush fades, the drag of import data on GDP data weakens, and retail sales data remains resilient. The rebound in crude oil prices and tariff pressure have made it difficult to eliminate the market's concerns about long-term economic stagflation risks. The number of initial and continued jobless claims has risen to recent highs, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the future. The bank reserve amount has rebounded to $3.4 trillion, the TGA account balance has decreased to $376 billion, and the reverse repurchase scale has remained at around $150 billion. The financial market liquidity has turned loose, and corporate spreads have declined. The US economy has not fully weakened, and inflation still has the risk of rebounding. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and the market has basically priced in the suspension of interest rate cuts in May and June, with only a 51.8% probability of interest rate cuts starting in September [89][98][106]. 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - This week, the sales volume of first-hand housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined more than seasonally. The number and price of second-hand housing listings were both weak. Automobile sales declined slightly year-on-year, while international oil prices fluctuated slightly upward to around $68 per barrel. In terms of capital interest rates, as of the close on April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of +18.09, +16.28, +19.30, and +12.40 bp compared to the previous weekend's close. In terms of repurchase transactions, the average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week (5.66 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level (77.10%). In April, the economic data weakened. The growth rate of social retail sales decreased from the previous value of 5.9% to 5.1%, and the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry from January to April decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value. The cumulative infrastructure growth rate also decreased slightly to 10.9%. In April, the new RMB credit weakened. The new medium and long-term loans of the household sector turned negative again, and the phenomenon of household deleveraging still exists. The medium and long-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased significantly year-on-year, and the corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year in a low-interest rate environment. The new government bonds increased significantly year-on-year in April, indicating that fiscal policy is front-loaded this year. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, while the M1 growth rate fluctuated at a low level, and the level of currency activation remained low. In April, China's CPI同比 decreased by 0.1%, and the core CPI同比 increased by 0.5%. The PPI同比 decreased by 2.7%. China's exports in April (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was -0.2% [113][126][137][144][151].