热点报告-金融工程 [★Tab事le_件Su：mImC、aryI]M 持续深度贴水 2025 年以来，股指期货贴水多次走阔，近期 IC、IM 贴水持 续维持历史高位，引发市场关注。截止 5 月 26 日，IC、IM 剔除 分红当季合约年化贴水率分别为 10.6%、15.3%，对应两年百分位 分别为 3.6%、2.4%。 风险中性定价原理（risk-neutral valuation） [Table_Title] 如何看待 IC&IM 当前的深贴水？ ★ 后续基差展望与策略建议 ★ 贴水原因分析 分析深贴水持续有 3 个主要因素： 一是多头套保资金的缺失。挂钩股指的结构化产品经历了持续 的敲出和到期，且新发受限，存续规模维持低位，仅有 2023 年最大 规模的约 1/4 到 1/3 。 金 融 工 程 二是中性策略套保需求维持稳定。今年以来小市值跑赢大盘， 中证2000指数相对中证1000指数取得累计超额收益7.7%，指增alpha 普遍表现较好；股指期货维持深度贴水的情况下，空头持有远季合 约对冲成本可控，例如 IC 持有当季合约对冲今年以来已兑现对冲成 本接近 0，叠加基差管理策略的中性策略可以取得较好表现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price lacks direct upward momentum and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the mid - and long - term logic needs more catalysts [10]. - The US may increase sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles, and the gap between high risk appetite and a fragile structure is widening [3]. - The risk of repeated changes in US tariff policies remains, and the US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - The inventory of agricultural products such as soybean meal is expected to continue to increase, and the oil market is expected to remain volatile [22][26]. - The prices of black metals are affected by factors such as policy and demand, showing different trends, and caution is needed in short - term operations [29][31]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are supported by a weak US dollar, but the upward space is limited, and different investment strategies are recommended for different varieties [37]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies, with different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [55][70]. - The container shipping index is affected by port congestion and other factors, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU - US negotiations continue. Due to the US Memorial Day holiday, trading was light. Trump postponed the tariff threat, and market risk - aversion eased. Gold continued to fluctuate. In the short term, the gold price lacks upward momentum, and in the medium and long term, more catalysts are needed [10]. - Investment advice: The short - term gold price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Lagarde said the euro could replace the US dollar. The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. Trump considers additional sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end soon. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Central Huijin emphasizes its role in maintaining financial stability. Moody's maintains China's sovereign credit rating. The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. The US stock market is affected by tariff and government debt issues and is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to concerns about government debt and tariff disturbances [20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal continues to rise. As the arrival of imported soybeans increases, the supply pressure dominates, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [21][22]. - Investment advice: The futures price will temporarily remain volatile, and the spot basis will be under pressure [23]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From May 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 7.34% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.73%. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased. The oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: The oil market will continue to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil is suitable for long - term allocation, soybean oil for short - term allocation, and palm oil for medium - term allocation [26]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The proposed use of special land - reserve bonds exceeds 350 billion yuan. The new contracts signed by the top five construction central enterprises in the first four months totaled about 2.4 trillion yuan. Steel prices have fallen significantly, and short - term unilateral operations require caution [27][28][29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on rallies for spot [30]. 2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port was weakly stable. Coal prices are expected to stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later due to high supply and low expected summer consumption growth [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices may stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later [31]. 2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project is postponed. Iron ore prices are following the weak trend of the overall black market, and the overall price is expected to remain weak [32]. - Investment advice: The overall price of iron ore is expected to remain weak [34]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper decreased, and the social inventory continued to decline. The COMEX copper net long position continued to decline. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the copper price is likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage operations [38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated is a candidate for a 22MW photovoltaic cell component procurement project. The spot price of polysilicon has fallen slightly. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production will have a significant impact on the fundamentals [40]. - Investment advice: For ordinary investors, unilateral operations are risky. Consider gradually taking profits on PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 long spreads [41]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicone raw rubber has declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The spot price may bottom out, but futures are more affected by sentiment [42]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions, and pay attention to the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [42]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - BYD signed a 3.5GWh energy - storage order. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, consider partial profit - taking or contract - rolling for previous short positions [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Anhui Lukong and Zhejiang Tianneng signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased significantly. The supply is not expected to be loose in the short term, and the mid - term low - buying idea is emerging [47]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - term low - buying opportunities [48]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel warehouse receipt in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The quota issuance of Indonesian RKAB exceeded expectations. The price of nickel ore is supported, but the upward space of nickel - iron is limited [49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to interval trading opportunities in the short term and mid - term short - selling opportunities [50]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 spread of LME zinc was at a discount. Peru's zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year. The domestic zinc supply is expected to be loose, and the social inventory may turn upward. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [52]. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies, and consider long - term spreads and long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Haikorelin plans to shut down for maintenance, affecting product supply. The Shandong spot price has signs of stabilization, and the propane price may回调. The spot price is expected to stabilize at a low level in the short term [53]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The OPEC+ meeting will be advanced by one day. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production in July, and the supply growth potential continues to pressure oil prices [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum is weak [56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the basis strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80% with inventory reduction, so the basis has rebounded [58]. - Investment advice: The short - term PTA performance may be stronger than the cost - end oil price, and the price and spreads are expected to be strong [59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The demand is recovering, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate upward [60]. - Investment advice: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate upward [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable with a slight increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is divided. The current spot is strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and the futures may fluctuate [63]. - Investment advice: The alumina market has little impact on caustic soda. The current spot is strong, but the futures may fluctuate [63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was slightly weak. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to fluctuate [64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [65]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly sorted, and the futures were weakly volatile. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [66]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate [66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable with some slight increases. The industry is operating at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The central government allocated 1.4 billion yuan for agricultural disaster prevention and pest control. The urea market was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as demand, policy, and supply - side changes [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to aspects such as agricultural demand, policy changes, and supply - side switching after the peak season [72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The styrene market was weakly volatile. The supply is expected to improve, and the market may adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [74]. - Investment advice: The far - month styrene has limited driving force, and the market is expected to adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased. The futures price of soda ash fell, affected by new production capacity. The short - term maintenance of production facilities may support the price, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [76]. - Investment advice: Short - term production - facility maintenance may support the price, but short - sell on rallies in the medium term [76]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price rose slightly, and the spot market was still weak. The price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. - Investment advice: The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - European ports are congested, and the container shipping index is affected. The US - line rush - shipping expectation has ebbed, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. - Investment advice: There are opportunities for callback buying [80].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 终端需求持续缩减，光伏玻璃价格弱势运行 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/23 当周）： 截至 5 月 23 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周光伏玻璃供给端基本稳定，仅有一条产线引头子出玻璃，暂 无新线投产。预计本周市场供给仍保持稳定状态，暂无厂家计划 新投窑炉。 能 源 上周终端需求持续缩减，组件厂家订单减少，光伏玻璃订单基本 处于交付尾期。预计本周需求表现仍偏弱，光伏玻璃厂家销量承 压。 化 工 当前光伏玻璃订单基本处于交付尾期，由于终端需求持续缩减， 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续上涨，目前行业库存已经重回高位。 ★ 供需分析： [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3013434 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013049 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3521 | | Email: | lu.cao@orie ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall rebound space of commodities may be limited as the industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, and based on the synchronicity between industry profit and inflation, the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index in the short term may be restricted [4][19][21] - Energy transformation drives the long - term divergence in the trends of new energy metals and energy chemicals. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Commodity ETF Underlying Assets and Correlation Research - Comprehensive commodity indices have a high correlation with PPI year - on - year. The year - on - year trend of Nanhua Comprehensive Commodity Index leads the change of China's PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.80; the year - on - year trend of RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index leads the change of the US unadjusted PPI year - on - year by about 2 months, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.91 [9] - The internal correlation among the three major domestic commodity ETFs is low. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a low correlation with the other two industrial - category commodity ETFs due to its agricultural product nature. The correlation between Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF and Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is only 52.95%. Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index has the highest correlation with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF, reaching 92.76%, and Nanhua Energy Chemicals Index has a relatively high correlation of 80.73% with Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF has a relatively low correlation of 61.45% with Nanhua Agricultural Products Index [10] - The basic operation for commodity ETF configuration is three - step: optimize the portfolio based on the difference in industrial driving strength, then use the risk exposure determined by rolling PCA factors for allocation to simulate or even exceed the long - term trend of the comprehensive commodity index (i.e., inflation), and conduct subjective systematic timing on this basis to optimize the risk - return characteristics of the portfolio [12] 2. Industrial Driving and Fundamental Changes of Core Varieties - In the long term, energy transformation policies cause the demand growth rates of new energy metals and traditional energy to diverge. The energy chemical sector's support weakens due to the decline in the raw material valuation center, while the non - ferrous metals sector is stronger. The long - term multi - allocation value of Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF may be better than that of Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF. The long - term valuation of Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is affected by soybean meal supply - demand and roll - over returns [3][15] - In the short and medium term, the valuation of commodity ETFs is affected by the supply - demand and valuation of underlying assets. Most non - ferrous metal inventories continue to decline, while the inventories of some chemical products such as thermal coal and PTA are at historical highs. The downstream consumption of non - ferrous metals is relatively stable, and the inventory control ability is relatively strong. Currently, the valuation of soybean meal is at a relatively low level in the long - term, and there are still many uncertainties in US soybean yield, export policies, and crushing demand [15] - In the short term, electrolytic aluminum in the non - ferrous metals sector may maintain a relatively high multi - allocation popularity, with support from supply disturbances at the mine end, terminal consumption resilience, and continuously low inventories [16] 3. Macro Driving and Market Style Rotation - Overseas, the US losing its last AAA credit rating raises its debt - repayment and financing costs. Japan's interest - rate hike expectation supports the upward movement of the long - end yield of Japanese government bonds, increasing the liquidity pressure on US Treasury bonds. The auction of US Treasury bonds encounters difficulties, and the yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds reaches a high of 5.117%. Geopolitical conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are difficult to ease in the short term. Domestically, most economic and financial data in April fell short of expectations [13] - In the commodity market in the week of May 23, 2025, precious metals, Treasury bond futures, and agricultural products outperformed industrial products. Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF recorded a positive return, while the two industrial - nature commodity ETFs recorded negative returns, with Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF being relatively more resilient [2][13] 4. Allocation Recommendations - Back - testing results show that the allocation using rolling PCA factors can achieve return characteristics consistent with the comprehensive commodity index/PPI year - on - year in the long term. The existing three domestic commodity ETFs' portfolio has better elasticity in the upward cycle. Allocation can anchor the trend of inflation - related assets, and subjective systematic timing can be carried out based on changes in macro and industrial driving forces [18] - The industry profit index is approaching the extreme position, so the room for further repair of the comprehensive commodity index may be limited [19][21] - The multi - allocation suggestions are as follows: Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF is recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐), Jianxin Yisheng Energy Chemicals ETF is not recommended for multi - allocation, and Huaxia Soybean Meal Feed ETF is strongly recommended for multi - allocation (marked with ⭐⭐) [5][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market has been in a situation of weak supply and demand for a long time, and preparations need to be made in advance for the upcoming changes. The current primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is at a low level. There is an expectation of tightening raw material supply, and some smelters still have room for production cuts. Terminal demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for inventory clearance, but also be vigilant against the possibility of downstream enterprises ramping up production during the semi - annual report season. In the short term, there are opportunities to buy at low prices, and for arbitrage, both inter - period and domestic - foreign trades should be temporarily observed [4][45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Objects - The research focuses on primary lead, secondary lead, and lead oxide enterprises in Hunan Province. After the Chinese New Year, refineries mainly resumed production, but issues such as raw material supply and environmental protection control occurred periodically. Starting from April, lead prices fell due to macro - disturbances and weak demand, while the price of scrap batteries increased inversely, leading to an expansion of losses for comprehensive recycling enterprises and a decline in the operating rate of secondary lead refineries. By late May, the contradiction in raw material supply reached a peak, and the cost supported lead prices, but at the same time, the operating rate of battery manufacturers continued to decline, resulting in a situation where Shanghai lead was in a dilemma between rising and falling [12]. 3.2 Key Research Conclusions and Analyses - **Supply - side Pressure**: Most secondary lead refineries in Hunan are operating at half - capacity, and the pressure to ensure supply remains high. The overall operating rate of the five comprehensive recycling enterprises in the research sample is about 50%, mainly due to the shortage of raw material supply. Most enterprises reported difficulties in recent raw material procurement, and the raw material inventory of most secondary lead enterprises has almost reached the bottom. Although enterprises are confident in future raw material supply, concerns about the low - level raw material inventory are inevitable without hedging [2][17]. - **Profitability**: Hunan's lead processing enterprises have different operating conditions, but all sample enterprises reported that their cash flow is not tight and there are no accounts receivable issues. Primary lead enterprises are losing money in lead production alone but are profitable overall due to by - products such as gold, silver, and tin. Among secondary lead enterprises, those using coarse lead and slag as raw materials and having relatively strong recycling capabilities are profitable overall, mainly due to by - products such as copper, tin, and antimony. However, some enterprises using only scrap batteries as raw materials are facing losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in small - metal prices on corporate profits [2][24]. - **Demand Outlook**: Lead demand was relatively good in March but declined continuously from April to May, and became even weaker after May Day. The overall downstream demand is in a weak period of terminal demand off - season, initial production start - up, and approaching holidays. Most manufacturers agreed that the demand bottom is approaching and believed that demand would not improve until at least July, but they were also worried about the instability of large - scale enterprises' operations [2][29]. - **Other Information**: The earlier heavy - metal pollution incident had limited impact, but air pollution had a greater impact. Most research manufacturers believe that lead prices will fluctuate weakly with limited downside space. Sample enterprises expect a slight decline in the future treatment charge (TC). There are scrap battery price - guarantee policies in various regions, and the price - guarantee time can be adjusted according to the volume [3][37][38]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The decline in scrap battery prices is only temporary, and the possibility of a sharp drop is low. Instead, more attention should be paid to the recent raw material procurement situation of price - adjusting manufacturers. In terms of fundamentals, the weak supply - demand pattern of lead has persisted for a long time. Currently, the primary lead production is stable, and the secondary lead production is at a low level. There is an expectation of tightening raw material supply, and some smelters still have room for production cuts. Terminal demand is weak, and demand has basically reached the bottom. Most finished product inventories are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain, and it is necessary to wait for inventory clearance. Be vigilant against the possibility of downstream enterprises ramping up production during the semi - annual report season. Strategically, the downside space of Shanghai lead is limited, and low - buying opportunities can be gradually considered recently. For arbitrage, both inter - period and domestic - foreign trades should be temporarily observed [4][42][45]. 3.4 Research Minutes - **Non - ferrous Metals Joint Enterprise A**: A large - scale domestic mining and metallurgy integrated non - ferrous metals enterprise with a lead smelting capacity of 150,000 tons. The company mainly focuses on deep - processing and alloy products, with a proportion of alloy products exceeding 60%. It produces by - products such as gold, silver, and bismuth. The company has been operating stably with a capacity utilization rate of about 95% this year. It uses both domestic and imported ores, with a 20% - 30% proportion of overseas ores. The long - term contract ratio of primary lead is over 90%. It maintains a one - month raw material inventory and has no finished product inventory. It needs a TC of over 1,000 yuan/ton to make a profit, and the main profit comes from by - products such as matte and tin slag. It hedges both raw materials and finished products [48][49][50]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise B**: A lead comprehensive recycling enterprise with raw materials all from coarse lead. It has a built - in lead ingot production capacity of 100,000 tons and currently produces about 6,000 tons per month. The by - products include gold, silver, tin, and zinc oxide. The operating rate is about 60%, and demand has been weak since April. It mainly imports raw materials from Jiangxi and has some pressure in raw material supply. The long - term contract ratio of primary lead is about 80%. It has a raw material inventory of about 200 tons and almost no finished product inventory. It needs a processing fee of about 1,200 yuan/ton to make a profit and does not conduct hedging [54][55]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise C**: A medium - sized comprehensive recycling enterprise with an annual lead material production capacity of 100,000 tons and a waste comprehensive recycling capacity of 180,000 tons. It currently only operates the scrap battery production line with an operating rate of 50% - 60%. The demand has been weak this year, especially in May. It sources about two - thirds of its raw materials from Hunan and one - third from Guangdong. The raw material inventory is usually less than five days, and the finished product inventory is full. The cost of secondary lead is about 800 yuan/ton, and it has been in a loss state since May. It does not allow hedging and believes that the short - term rebound of lead prices is limited but is bullish in the third quarter [56][57][58]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise D**: A comprehensive recycling enterprise engaged in the recycling of rare and precious metal resources. It has an annual material processing capacity of about 250,000 tons and an electrolytic lead production capacity of 4,000 tons per month, which may increase to 5,000 tons by the end of May. It is currently operating at half - capacity, and demand has been weak since May. It believes that downstream demand has price elasticity and expects demand to recover in the second half of the year. It mainly sources raw materials from local mining traders, domestic regions, and a small amount from imports. The long - term contract and spot sales were initially in a 50:50 ratio, but now production can only meet long - term contracts. The raw material inventory is about 2 - 3 days, and there is almost no finished product inventory. The electrolytic lead cost is about 500 yuan/ton, and the company has been profitable overall this year, with the main profit coming from by - products. It conducts hedging flexibly [63][64][66]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise E**: A small - scale comprehensive recycling enterprise integrating rare and precious metals such as gold, silver, and bismuth. It mainly recycles slag and waste from refineries, with an annual processing capacity of about 60,000 tons. It is currently operating at an operating rate of less，than 40%, and sales have been poor recently. It has no raw material inventory and has cleared its finished product inventory. The electrolytic lead cost is about 500 yuan/ton, and it has maintained a small profit since the beginning of the year. The main profit comes from by - products such as tin, bismuth, and antimony. It does not conduct hedging and mainly adjusts inventory. It believes that the decline of lead prices is limited, but the medium - term trend is unclear [71][72][74]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise F**: A medium - sized comprehensive recycling enterprise with a designed annual comprehensive recycling capacity of 145,000 tons. It is still adjusting its production structure and currently estimates a lead production capacity of 70,000 tons per year. It mainly sources raw materials from the slag of copper and lead - zinc smelters and is facing difficulties in raw material procurement. It has a one - and - a - half - month raw material inventory due to recent commissioning and is waiting to produce finished products. The electrolytic lead cost is 500 - 600 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit is over 500 yuan/ton, with the main profit coming from copper and tin. It does not conduct hedging currently. The heavy - metal pollution incident had little impact, but there is a problem with the disposal of water slag [79][80][81]. - **Lead Oxide Enterprise G**: A lead oxide processing enterprise mainly producing red lead and yellow lead, with a monthly output of about 2,500 tons. It is currently producing based on sales, and terminal demand is moderately weak. It was operating at full capacity during the peak season after the Chinese New Year and is currently operating at about 80% capacity. It believes that demand will not improve until at least July. It uses electrolytic lead and secondary lead as raw materials in a 50:50 ratio, with a monthly raw material procurement of more than 2,000 tons. It has no long - term contracts. The raw material inventory can meet 1 - 10 days of use, and there is almost no finished product inventory. The cost is 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and it has maintained a small profit since the beginning of the year. It does not conduct hedging. The heavy - metal pollution incident had no impact, and environmental protection - related production cuts occur about once every two months. It does not expect a significant decline in lead prices, mainly due to raw material support [85][86][87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 19 - May 23, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.29 million lots, showing a -11% and +10% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with most chemical and non - ferrous metals declining, and 37 varieties closing higher for the week. Many varieties' implied volatility continued to decline, and the trading and open - interest PCR of some varieties indicated strong short - term bullish or bearish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties included styrene (750,000 lots), alumina (740,000 lots), and silver (360,000 lots). Alumina had a significant trading volume increase of +165%, while polysilicon decreased by -69% [1][8]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (790,000 lots), soda ash (490,000 lots), and glass (480,000 lots). Alumina's open interest increased by +107% [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The varieties with high weekly gains were alumina (+9.65%), gold (+3.76%), and silver (+2.00%); those with high losses were synthetic rubber (-3.96%), LPG (-3.63%), and ferrosilicon (-3.37%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities continued to decline this week, with 39 varieties showing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include gold, and low - volatility varieties include oilseeds, rebar, and iron ore [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as p - xylene, LPG, and polypropylene is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of glass and rubber is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].

周度报告-黄金 美国债务和贸易谈判推动金价再度上涨 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 4.8%至 3357 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.51%，通胀 预期 2.35%，实际利率微升至 2.16%，美元指数跌 1.96%至 99.1，标 普 500 指数跌 2.61%，离岸人民币小幅升值，沪金溢价收窄。 贵 金 属 金价大幅上涨，一方面是市场再度交易美国政府债务问题，穆迪 下调美国主权评级，理由是美国政府债务规模庞大以及利息支出 负担加剧，20 年期美债招标数据显示需求不佳，推动美债收益率 明显走高，30 年期美债收益率突破 5%。此外，日本长端债券招 标数据亦不佳，叠加日央行自去年已经不再进行收益率曲线控制 并且存在加息空间，日债收益率持续走高，并带动欧美债券收益 率走高，尤其是美债市场，二者联动性较高，后续美国和日本债 市以及汇率市场波动预计仍会较大。另一方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is currently in a state of oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset, while in the long - term, there is still some downward pressure. Although the suspension of Guinea mines has reduced the ore supply, the current reduction scale will not cause a long - term supply gap, which restricts the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 668 yuan/ton, and the arrival - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Ore supply in some areas of Henan was tight due to mine suspension, while in Shanxi, mines in operation continued and those not in operation remained under rectification. In terms of imports, the military government in Guinea designated the AXIS mining area as a military reserve, causing three mines to shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased significantly, and the mainstream transaction price rose to 74 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. During the period, 457.3 million tons of new ore arrived, including 380.3 million tons from Guinea and 71.6 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 US dollars/ton [2][12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3288.3 yuan/ton, up 267.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term supply shortage caused by phased large - scale production cuts, the spot price continued to rise. In the northern market, 4.7 million tons of alumina were traded, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3164 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Australian FOB price of 374 US dollars/ton was equivalent to about 3318 yuan/ton in RMB, and China's alumina export window remained closed. By the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2944 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 68 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the return of maintenance capacity and the gradual release of new capacity led to a recovery in domestic alumina production capacity. The national alumina production capacity was 11082 million tons, with 8800 million tons in operation, an increase of 115 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.4% [3][13] Demand - There was no change in domestic demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week. There was also no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2940.8 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week [13] Inventory - As of Thursday (May 22), the national alumina inventory was 321 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was polarized. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was stable, while the inventory of some small enterprises and supporting industrial chain groups decreased due to the lack of alumina production capacity. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased due to concentrated maintenance capacity and tight shipping. The port inventory fluctuated little, and the inventory would change after the normal port collection was completed [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164199 tons, a decrease of 40536 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price rose and then fell last week. With the reduction in ore supply caused by the shutdown of Guinea mines, the market was no longer in a large - scale surplus but in a slight surplus or tight balance. It is expected that the bottom of the long - term ore price will gradually rise. However, since the current reduction in ore production will not cause a long - term supply gap, ore does not have the basis for a significant price increase, which limits the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On May 23, 0.3 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Baise, Guangxi, at an ex - factory price of 3300 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina plant and a trader. Also on May 23, 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 3300 yuan/ton, a spot - exchange transaction between traders [17] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - Charts include domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [11][18][25] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Charts cover domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table shows the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand difference from January to May 2025 [11][32][39] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts involve electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts [11][42][45]

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most global stock markets falling and bond yields rising. The US dollar index has weakened, while non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The threat of tariffs and the US government's debt issues are major concerns, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [1][2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and bond yields have mostly risen, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce, the VIX index has rebounded to 22.3, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly fallen. Developed - market stocks have generally declined, with the S&P 500 down 2.61%. Emerging - market stocks have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%. Concerns about the US government's debt have increased after Moody's downgraded the US rating. Tariff issues have pressured the stock market, and economic data has been affected by pre - tariff export rushes. The Fed's interest - rate cut intention has decreased, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly risen, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. Eurozone countries' bond yields have shown mixed trends, and emerging - market bond yields have mostly increased. The demand for long - term bonds in Japan and the US has been weak, pushing up yields. The US 30 - year Treasury has exceeded 5%. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield has risen to 1.697%, and the domestic bond market remains in a volatile state [14][16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. The offshore RMB has risen 0.53%, the euro has risen 1.75%, the pound has risen 1.89%, and other non - US currencies have also shown significant increases [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce. Moody's downgrade of the US government rating and tariff threats have boosted gold prices. The gold market has entered an oscillating phase. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel, and the overall commodity market has closed higher [33] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 and a 25% tax on Apple's products produced in India. The implementation of the 50% tariff on the EU is likely, which may cause greater market volatility. The passage of the US tax - cut bill is expected to increase the deficit and exacerbate the US Treasury problem [37][38] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: The US and the UK will have a one - day holiday - Tuesday: The US will release the March housing price index and the May Conference Board consumer confidence index - Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest - rate meeting decision - Thursday: The US will release the first - quarter GDP revision and the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Fed will release the May interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: The US will release the April core PCE [39]