周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 关税对于光伏产业链的影响有限 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂东部基地在原复产 50 台矿热炉的基础上减产 28 台， 即剩余 22 台矿热炉在产，西部基地开炉 48 台，减产时间仍未 明确。西南地区工业硅缓慢复工，部分新建产能如永昌硅业、 新安盐津计划在本月陆续投产。本周多晶硅厂粉单释放，压价 严重，疆内 99 硅粉价格 10000-10100 元/吨，江苏 99 硅粉价格 在 10650-10730 元/吨。有机硅 4 月或再减产，铝合金维持刚需 采买。出口受政策影响，短期之内或将下行。供给减产已落 地，但在需求不见起色的情况下，工业硅基本面情况难改。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 地震影响硅片产出，但由于出现断线/焖锅问题，原单晶炉中 的硅料无法再使用，需要重新投料，因此对硅料需求而言或有 小幅利好。4 月多晶硅排产预计在 10 万吨左右。以此测算，4 月多晶硅有望去库超 2 万吨。但多晶硅的核心问题仍在于高企 的库存。考虑下游库存，则全行业库存或在 45 万吨左右。4-5 月硅片厂家策略以消化在手库存为主，采购积极性不高。目前 硅料厂策略仍以稳定价格为主，但抢装后 ...

周度报告-国债期货 行情提前启动，关注短债补涨机会 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转涨 国 债 期 货 本周（03.31-04.06）国债期货震荡转涨。周一，3 月官方制造业 PMI 继续回升，市场将其视为利空落地，叠加股市走弱，国债 由弱转强，但由于季末资金面持续偏紧，午后市场再度走弱， 曲线整体走平。周二，早午盘资金面均衡偏紧，国债期货冲高 回落，尾盘资金虽然转松，但现券反应不大。周三，今日资金 面转松，同时市场对外需走弱、货币宽松的预期上升，国债期 货拉升，曲线走平。周四，海外关税政策超市场预期、资金面 均衡偏松，国债期货大幅上涨。截至 4 月 3 日收盘，两年、五 年、十年和三十年期国债期货主连合约结算价分别为 102.544、 106.115、108.575 和 118.680 元，分别较上周末变动+0.096、 +0.450、+0.690 和+2.600 元。 ★行情提前启动，关注短债补涨机会 展望后市，贸易冲突存在螺旋上升的可能，债市上涨的方向是 相对确定的，所需考虑的只是节奏和赔率的问题。节奏方面， 虽然长债已经基本完成了对于美国对等关税这一事件的定价， 但中国已经展 ...

周度报告——商品期货 商品风格轮动周报： 对等关税超预期，不确定性仍存 [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 5 日 [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 2025 年 4 月 3 日当周，涨幅靠前品种集中于贵金属及农产品， 跌幅靠前品种集中于工业品板块。清明假日期间，风险资产普 跌。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 4 月 3 日当周内盘走势显示，周期/成长风格轮动至空配周期； 工业品/农产品风格轮动至空配南华工业品；贵金属/工业品风 格轮动至多配南华贵金属；金/油比价轮动至多配金。 4 月 3 日当周内盘走势显示，周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头 寸分别为：棕榈油-豆油主力合约价差、菜油-豆油主力合约价 差、豆粕菜粕主力合约价差；周内套利对表现相对最弱的三个 头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合约价差、菜油-棕榈油主力合约价 差、铜金主力合约比价。 海外方面，特朗普对等关税方案超出市场预期，且不确定性仍 存。清明假期，外盘风险资产普跌。关税政策对全球经济增速 及商品需求增速呈负面拖累。外资机构下调油价预期。 ★风险提示： 公式中现货标的及常数差异导致的数据失真。 5d[Tabl ...

季度报告——锰硅/硅铁 成本下移，供需宽松 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 锰硅/硅铁：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 日 | 年 | 月 | 3 | [Table_Summary] ★锰硅：锰矿支撑有限，价格回归供需 硅锰方面，虽然港口锰矿库存持续下降，尤其是氧化矿库 存。天津港锰矿库存降至 300 万吨以下，为近几年来的最 低水平。低锰矿库存也在一定程度上支撑了硅锰价格。但 未来仍有一定量的锰矿到港。港口难以延续去库节奏。锰 矿到港增加价格下降，对硅锰支撑有限。供应方面预计仍 将维持在较低水平，关注价格下行后会供应的挤出影响。 ★硅铁：供需偏弱，成本下移 硅铁方面，尽管硅铁成本端呈现持续下行态势，但硅铁价 格也延续了下行节奏，导致硅铁厂利润依然偏低，供应维 持在低位。二季度来看，需求端暂无明显亮点，整体供应 预计将维持现状。若后续价格继续下行，利润进一步收缩， 硅锰开工率可能会出现下降。 ★二季度硅锰、硅铁市场展望 综合来看，铁合金产能过剩状况未变，整体仍呈供需偏宽 松格局，同时成本或有下移，合金价格或延 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US announced reciprocal tariffs, which led to a significant decline in risk assets. The tariff measures have a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets [1]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, the steel price has limited rebound space, the lithium price pressure is marginally weakened, and the oil price is under pressure due to concerns about demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Republican Party plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and continue Trump - era tax cuts. Trump's tariff policy has increased risk aversion, which is beneficial to gold, but the stock market decline may also have a negative impact on gold through liquidity. Gold is strong in the short - term but with increased market volatility [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Senate Republicans' budget blueprint involves tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The ADP employment in March increased by 155,000 people, but salary growth slowed. Trump's tariff measures exceeded expectations, increasing the downward risk of US stocks [12][13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan. Although the market has not shown a clear upward trend, the probability of monetary policy loosening is high, and it is recommended to actively conduct long - term layouts [17]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report. The expected export sales of US soybeans are between 25 - 850,000 tons. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the soybean market needs further attention [19]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in March increased by 3.92%. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline. India's palm oil imports in March increased by 13.2%. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider buying on dips [22][23][24]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Jinzhong is stabilizing. The demand has recovered slightly, but the futures market is still under pressure from warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see for the futures market [25][26]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the CS05 - C05 spread will continue to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [27][28]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of new homes in 100 cities in China increased, while the price of second - hand homes decreased. The steel price has large intraday fluctuations, and the export situation is not optimistic in the medium term. It is recommended to take a bearish view on price rebounds [29][30][31]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Traders are actively selling corn, and the spot price is falling. The futures price may have different trends for different contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the wheat - producing areas in mid - to late April [32]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The imported steam coal market is stable. The power plant's demand is weak, and the coal price is expected to remain weak in April [33]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar. In the short term, the iron ore price is supported by the increase in molten iron, but in the long term, the order expectation is deteriorating [34][35]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Affected by the earthquake and market supply - demand, the price of silicon wafers has increased. The polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in March - April and then increase again in May. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend in different periods [37][38]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in March increased by 51,900 tons. There are rumors of production cuts, but the impact on the market is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [39][40]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Western Mining achieved good results in the first quarter. Some Japanese copper companies' production is expected to be flat. The copper price is affected by macro factors and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [41][42][44]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead production increased in the first quarter. The lead price is supported by waste batteries but limited by weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][47][48]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Boliden's acquisition of mines has been approved. The zinc price is affected by macro factors and market rumors. It is recommended to control positions in the short term [49][50][51]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's nickel production capacity in Indonesia has been fully built. The nickel price is cost - supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [52][53][54]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production reached a record high in 2024. The basic data of lithium carbonate still shows an oversupply, but the pressure on the lithium price is marginally weakened [55][57]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong is stable. The US C3 inventory has increased. The LPG price is affected by tariff policy expectations [58][59]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory has increased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to concerns about demand after the US announced reciprocal tariffs [60]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - grade caustic soda in Shandong is falling. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, but the decline is limited [62][63][65]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The pulp price is affected by weak domestic demand and tariff policies [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased slightly. The market is in a state of shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, but the rate of decline has slowed. The market is expected to be in a shock state [69][70]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable. The supply pressure has increased due to the restart of production capacity, and the short - term processing fee is under pressure [71][73][74]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Jinxi Petrochemical's styrene plant is under maintenance. The cost - side guidance is weakened, and the market is in a wide - range shock [75][76]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to short on rallies [77]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has slightly increased. The price is mainly affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on large pullbacks [78][79]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in January - February, but the import was weak. The European line freight rate is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for bottle chips is "sideways", and for staple fibers is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, both supply and demand for bottle chips are expected to increase. Despite seasonal peak - demand support, high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, and processing fees will face pressure, but the further compression space is limited. For staple fibers, there may be a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. Short - term processing fees may strengthen, but there is a risk of decline later [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - quarter Review of Bottle Chips and Staple Fibers 3.1.1 Bottle Chips - In Q1 2025, the spot and futures prices of bottle chips first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting downward. Processing fees first increased and then decreased. Factories reduced production during the off - season to relieve inventory pressure. Later, prices followed polyester raw materials down, and processing fees slightly recovered due to low industry operation and improved demand. By mid - to late March, processing fees quickly dropped to around 350 yuan/ton [16] 3.1.2 Staple Fibers - In Q1 2025, the price of staple fibers declined, dragged down by falling polyester raw materials and weak supply - demand. The basis strengthened passively, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook. The spot processing fee fluctuated between 1050 - 1200 yuan/ton, and the central value of the disk processing fee decreased. High supply and slow - recovering demand led to the decline in processing fees [18] 3.2 Second - quarter Outlook for Bottle Chips 3.2.1 Supply - In Q2, the operating rate of bottle chips is expected to rise significantly. In Q1, the operating rate was low, and production decreased. In Q2, with the peak - demand season approaching, factories will increase production, and new devices may be put into operation. If inventory accumulates in April, the operating rate may be adjusted downward in May and June [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Demand - Bottle chip demand will seasonally strengthen in Q2. The demand for bottle chips has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak from July to August. In 2025, the production of soft drinks, edible oils, and catering revenue all increased year - on - year, providing rigid support for demand. Government consumption - promotion policies are also expected to drive demand growth [31] 3.2.3 Export - In Q1 2025, bottle chip exports increased by 17.5% year - on - year. Exports from Hainan and Liaoning increased significantly. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on overall exports is limited. In Q2, large manufacturers expect an increase in export orders, and export volume may maintain high - speed growth [39][45] 3.3 Second - quarter Outlook for Staple Fibers 3.3.1 Supply - In Q1 2025, the supply pressure of staple fibers was high, with the operating rate and production reaching new highs. New capacity was added in February. In Q2, without considering industry - wide production cuts, factories are willing to maintain high - level operation, but the space for further increase in supply is limited. However, industry self - discipline may lead to production cuts, which could relieve supply pressure if implemented [47][51] 3.3.2 Domestic Demand - In Q1, domestic demand for staple fibers was weak. Retail sales of clothing and textiles increased moderately, but exports were affected by tariff policies. Spinning mill orders were lower than in previous years, and downstream yarn mills had high inventory and low stocking willingness. In Q2, demand may weaken seasonally. Although domestic consumption is expected to grow moderately, export pressure may increase, and weaving operations may face seasonal decline [53][64] 3.3.3 Export - In Q1 2025, staple fiber exports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, mainly due to cost advantages and the upward shift of the industrial chain caused by the relocation of the textile industry. Exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth, and the export volume may increase after Ramadan in April, but the impact on the overall supply - demand pattern is currently limited [67] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For bottle chips, pay attention to the operating opportunities of disk processing fees in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton. For staple fibers, pay attention to the opportunity of short - term repair of disk processing fees and then shorting at high levels [4][69]

重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250402 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 • 亚洲港口： 洋山港、外高桥远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为18.2小时/23.9小时、41.9小时/19.0小时，最新在锚/在泊集装 箱船数量达到17艘/27艘、 31艘/29艘；宁波港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为17.3时/25.7小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量 为32艘/26艘。青岛远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为16.2小时/25.4小时；新加坡港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为 0.9小时/33.9小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为4艘/45艘 ，巴生港周均等泊时间/在泊时间为21.6小时/25.9小时，最新在锚/在泊集 装箱船数量为32艘/24艘。天气反复，宁波和上海地区港口拥堵有所反弹、船舶周转效率下滑。青岛港前期拥堵和延误情况存在改善。巴 生港仍然存在较为严重的堵港和船期延误问题。 • 欧洲港口： 鹿特丹、安特卫普、汉堡港、勒阿弗尔，远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为10.8小时/50.4小时、2 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 A 股市场对于对等关税的响应并不足够，市场虽然缩量，但又选 择了低位的医药股，风险偏好难言实质下行。随着对等关税来 临，预期差或将被消灭。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 石油和生物燃料联盟将在 EPA 会议上寻求提高生物柴油产量 石油公司与生物燃料协会将与 EPA 举行会议，美豆油再度大涨。 综 有色金属（铜） 市场等待特朗普官宣对等关税细节 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-02 宏观策略（股指期货） 特朗普将于北京时间周四凌晨宣布对等关税 合 智利 2 月铜产量同比下滑 5.4% 晨 报 宏观因素继续对铜价形成支撑，配置相关需求将继续托底，但 基本面及关税预期短期或抑制铜价，总体上看，铜价短期震荡 整理可能性更大。 能源化工（纸浆） 今日进口木浆现货市场价格呈下探趋势 内需偏弱导致浆价持续回落。但目前内外价差倒挂严重，限制 价格的进一步走低。且特朗普关税政策推出在即，关注后续是 否会对纸浆供应链造成冲击。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F3079233 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai lead is "volatile", with a wide - range oscillation mainly within the range of 16,800 - 18,500 yuan/ton [3][4][71]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support from waste batteries and demand limit the upside of lead prices. In the second quarter, lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations. However, due to the persistent shortage of raw materials, the probability of a sharp decline in lead prices in the second quarter is low. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to the actual performance and sustainability of replacement demand and energy storage increments [4][71]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in Q1 2025 - Lead prices showed a generally bullish trend in Q1 2025, with two cycles of "sustained rise and periodic sharp decline". After the Spring Festival, lead prices soared due to expectations of demand recovery and low inventory accumulation in the industry chain, then fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, there were sharp declines and rebounds due to various factors such as rumors of downstream production cuts, inventory accumulation, and changes in supply - demand relationships [5][8]. 2. Overseas Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the global lead concentrate production was basically flat year - on - year. In Q1 2025, overseas disturbances decreased significantly, and production was expected to be basically flat quarter - on - quarter. In Q2 2025, there might be an obvious recovery due to the low base in the previous year. The expected overseas lead mine increment in 2025 is about 103,000 metal tons, but the improvement will be less than that of zinc [12][13][14]. 3. Domestic Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the domestic lead mine shifted from shortage to tight balance. It is expected that the domestic lead mine increment in 2025 will be about 20,000 metal tons, mainly in the second half of the year. In Q1, the lead concentrate import window remained open, and in Q2, imports may decrease quarter - on - quarter but increase year - on - year. The TC has an expectation of increase in the medium - term, but the increase is highly limited [20][24]. 4. Domestic Primary Lead Production - Overseas primary lead production in 2024 was 1.454 million tons (YoY + 1%), and in January 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons. Domestic primary lead production from January to February was 568,000 tons (YoY - 0.2%), and in March, production increased significantly by 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In Q1 2025, production was expected to be 913,000 tons (YoY + 5.7%). In Q2, there is an expectation of raw material inventory consumption, and it is difficult to repair smelting profits [28]. 5. Domestic Secondary Lead Production - It is estimated that the secondary lead production in Q1 2025 was 725,000 tons (YoY - 6.4%). Waste batteries are expected to be in a more severe shortage in 2025 compared to last year. With the operating loss of secondary lead smelters, there is a possibility of large - scale production cuts in the second quarter when demand weakens [36][47]. 6. Lead Demand - **Initial - stage demand**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up of battery enterprises was generally lower than expected. In April, the traditional lead - acid battery demand entered the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production arrangements of large enterprises in the future. Energy storage batteries showed obvious growth, and lead - carbon battery manufacturers had sufficient production orders [49][51]. - **Terminal demand**: In Q1, terminal demand may have reached its peak and will weaken marginally in Q2. Electric two - wheelers' replacement demand has recovered due to policies, but the lithium - for - lead substitution process may continue in the long - term. The automotive market was strong in Q1 but weakened in Q2. The communication base station equipment production decreased in 2024 and is expected to improve in 2025. Energy storage will contribute obvious increments [52][58]. - **Overseas demand**: The export of lead - acid batteries in 2024 slowed down. From January to February 2025, exports declined significantly. It is expected that the annual export growth rate of batteries will be adjusted down to - 1%. Exports to Belt and Road countries may increase quarter - on - quarter in Q2 [59]. 7. Inventory and Import - **LME inventory**: There was a concentrated delivery in the LME in mid - March, and the overseas consumption capacity of lead ingots remains weak. - **Domestic social inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the supply recovery rate exceeded demand, and the social inventory is currently at a seasonally neutral - to - high level. In April, social inventory may continue to rise in the short - term. - **Lead ingot import**: In Q1, the import profit and loss was close to the import window of crude lead, and some crude lead flowed in. It is possible that crude lead will continue to flow in Q2 [67]. 8. Second - Quarter Fundamental and Trading Logic Outlook - **Primary lead**: In Q2, primary lead smelters will continue to produce. Pay attention to the overseas mine repair progress and the limitations of raw materials and costs on smelting capacity. - **Secondary lead**: The shortage of waste batteries will continue. Secondary lead smelters may cut production after demand weakens. - **Demand**: Policy - driven replacement demand and high - speed growth in the energy storage sector will offset some of the weakening automotive demand and high - ratio - suppressed export demand. Demand may run stably in Q2. - **Trading logic**: Lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations in Q2. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for palm oil is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is currently in a stage of seeking a new balance under the condition of weak supply and demand. The high premium of palm oil is due to factors such as low inventory at the origin, potential demand from Indonesia's B40, India's strong purchases, and adverse weather in Southeast Asia. However, the market will eventually return to rationality. As the demand from Indonesia and India collapses, the current tight balance of palm oil may turn into a short - term supply surplus after the supply recovers. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025Q1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, palm oil prices showed a trend of decline - rise - decline - oscillation. At the beginning of the year, prices continued the decline from December 2024 due to the postponement of Indonesia's B40. Then, due to extreme rainfall at the origin, price rebounds occurred. After the Spring Festival, prices rose significantly but then fell due to India's order cancellations and concerns about Indonesia's B40 implementation. In early March, prices rebounded again but then oscillated within a range [13][14] 3.2 Gradually Returning to a Rational Market: Re - balancing under Weak Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Malaysia: Low Inventory Supports Prices, and a Supply Inflection Point is Approaching - Currently, Malaysian palm oil faces a situation of low production and low inventory. Production has been decreasing since September 2024, mainly affected by drought and heavy rainfall. As of February 2025, the ending inventory was only 151 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40 million tons. The origin has a strong willingness to hold prices. However, production is expected to recover in March, with an estimated increase of 5% - 9% to reach 1.25 - 1.3 million tons. In the second quarter, production will enter a relatively smooth growth season. Exports have been declining, and it is estimated that exports in March will remain at around 1 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in April and return to normal levels in May. Domestic demand is limited, and inventory accumulation may occur from May to June [19][24][34] 3.2.2 Indonesia: Implementing B40 Faces Many Difficulties - Indonesia's production is expected to recover better than Malaysia's, but the actual production in the first quarter was not optimistic due to heavy rainfall. The implementation of B40 is a key variable. In 2025, the biodiesel subsidy policy changed, and the non - PSO sector may face difficulties in achieving the B40 blending ratio. Currently, the biodiesel process is not going well. If B40 is not implemented, Indonesia will have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [43][50][54] 3.2.3 India: Low Import Willingness but Still in Need of Replenishing Stocks - India is the largest palm oil importer. Since the end of the Diwali stocking last year, India's palm oil imports have declined significantly due to the high premium of palm oil compared to soybean oil. As of February, the total inventory of vegetable oils in India was at a three - year low. With the warming weather and low inventory, India has a strong need to replenish stocks, and palm oil will be the main product for replenishment [58][65] 3.2.4 China: Near - term Contradictions Remain, and Long - term Supply Will Improve - The domestic palm oil market has been in a situation of weak supply and demand since the fourth quarter of last year, with low inventory. Currently, due to the strong price - holding intention at the origin, the import profit is inverted, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. In April, the inventory is expected to decline further, but it is expected to increase from May, and the inventory inflection point will appear in May [69][74] 3.3 Market Judgment and Suggestions - In the second quarter, the origin's quotes are expected to first decline and then continue to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. The price range for the 05 contract is estimated to be between 8,200 yuan and 9,500 yuan, and for the 09 contract, it is between 7,900 yuan and 8,800 yuan. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82]