Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25% year-on-year in 1H25, with revenue of 360 million RMB and a net profit of 31 million RMB, down 69% year-on-year [1] - The company is viewed positively in the long term as a leading provider of wireless IoT devices and solutions, particularly in the context of AI opportunities [1][4] - Despite short-term order fluctuations due to tariff impacts, the company is expanding its video vehicle networking business rapidly [1][4] Financial Performance - In 2Q25, the company's revenue was 203 million RMB, a 23% year-on-year decline but a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 21 million RMB, down 66% year-on-year but up 117% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 41.01%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The revenue from vehicle information intelligent terminal products was 237 million RMB, down 14% year-on-year, while asset management intelligent terminal products generated 66 million RMB, down 55% year-on-year [1] Emerging Business Opportunities - The company’s new business areas continue to show strong growth, particularly in video vehicle networking products, which saw a 90% year-on-year increase in revenue [2][4] - The company’s ECALL emergency light product has passed DGT3.0 certification, allowing entry into the Spanish and some EU markets, which is expected to drive rapid growth [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 133 million RMB, 149 million RMB, and 165 million RMB respectively, down from previous estimates [5] - The target price for the company is set at 14.12 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 49x for 2025 [5]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The Fed maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. There were internal disagreements, with two governors voting against and favoring an immediate rate cut, but Powell's hawkish remarks at the press conference reduced the rate - cut expectation. The Fed may wait for employment data to weaken before cutting rates [2]. - Before the FOMC meeting, US economic data was robust, driving up US Treasury yields and strengthening the US dollar. After the meeting, financial conditions tightened, and the US stock market turned down, showing some "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased, subject to inflation, employment data, and the Fed's decision - making mechanism. The Fed is likely to wait and see based on inflation and employment data [2][9]. FOMC Statement - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Two governors, Bowman and Waller, voted against, increasing the easing expectation to some extent, but Powell's hawkish speech later reduced the rate - cut expectation [2]. - The Fed noted that economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, with high uncertainty, a low unemployment rate, and a robust jobs market [2]. Powell's Press Conference - Powell considered the current interest rate to be at a moderately restrictive level. Inflation is slightly above 2%, the labor market is robust, and the Fed has not decided on a September rate cut, waiting for more data [3]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influence, stating that it makes decisions based on data [3]. Market Performance - Before the FOMC meeting, multiple economic data showed a robust US economy, with the 7 - month ADP employment increasing by 104,000 (higher than the expected 75,000), and the Q2 real GDP annualized year - on - year growth at 3% (higher than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of - 0.5%). However, consumer spending cooled, and there was "mild stagflation" pressure [6]. - After the meeting, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.79bp to 3.95%, the 10 - year yield rose 4.77bp to 4.37%, the US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks turned down [7]. Outlook for Policy Path - By the September FOMC meeting, economic data may not support a rate cut. The probability of the first rate cut within the year occurring in the fourth quarter has increased [9]. - From the inflation perspective, the Fed needs to see the peak of the inflation pulse caused by tariffs pass. The inflation effect of tariffs is slower than expected, and inflation is expected to rise rapidly in the third quarter [9]. - In terms of employment, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the unemployment rate approaches 4.5%. Currently, the labor market supply - demand balance is maintained, and the probability of the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% or higher before September is low [9]. - The Fed's decision - making mechanism shows that although two governors supported a rate cut in July, Powell led the majority to maintain a relatively tight stance and a data - driven model, and the Fed's independence is well - defended [10]. Asset Allocation Views - US Treasuries: Due to tariff impacts and Fed policy expectations, short - term risks of US Treasuries may rise slightly in the third quarter, while long - term bonds may be relatively stable. It is recommended to buy 10 - year US Treasuries at a yield of around 4.5% [11]. - US Stocks: After hitting record highs, the US stock market may face short - term volatility due to inflation, Fed's tight - stance, and tariff impacts on corporate earnings. It is advisable to hedge short - term risks by increasing volatility [11]. - US Dollar: With trade partners' concessions on tariffs, the "de - dollarization" concern has eased. The US dollar may stage a rebound in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to its impact on the foreign exchange market and domestic monetary policies [12].

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting[1] - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The Fed's assessment of economic growth was downgraded from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated," indicating concerns over economic slowdown[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations[1] - Cumulative rate cut expectations for the year decreased by 7 basis points to 37 basis points[1] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - Powell emphasized the robustness of the job market but acknowledged existing downside risks[3] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, but the overall growth rate for the first half of the year was slower compared to the same period last year[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies likely to pass on costs to consumers in the future[3] Future Outlook - The decision on a potential rate cut in September will depend on economic data from July and August, particularly employment figures[4] - There is a possibility of two rate cuts between September and December if economic conditions weaken[4] - Risks include unexpected inflation from tariffs and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. job market[4]

证券研究报告 移为通信 (300590 CH) 业绩短期承压，新兴业务延续开拓 2025 年 7 月 31 日│中国内地 通信设备制造 根据公司 2025 年中报，1H25 公司营收为 3.60 亿元，同比下滑 25%；归母 净利润为 0.31 亿元，符合此前业绩预告（0.30~0.39 亿元），同比下滑 69%。 其中 2Q25 单季公司营收为 2.03 亿元，同比下滑 23%，环比增长 30%；归 母净利润为 0.21 亿元，同比下滑 66%，环比增长 117%。1H25 公司业绩承 压，主要系部分订单受到关税扰动的影响。长期来看，公司作为业界领先的 无线物联网设备和解决方案提供商，我们仍然看好公司在 AI 时代的发展机 遇，维持"增持"评级。 关税扰动下订单短期波动；视频车联网业务快速开拓 分板块来看，1H25 公司车载信息智能终端产品营收 2.37 亿元，同比减少 14%；资产管理信息智能终端产品实现营收 0.66 亿元，同比减少 55%。公 司动物追踪溯源产品实现营收 0.25 万元，同比增长 22%；视频车联网业务 实现营收 0.19 亿元，同比增长 90%，实现高速增长。 综合毛利率保持韧性，费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][24]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 49.34 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.077 billion yuan, up 3.01% year-on-year. However, the second quarter saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and 8.25%, respectively, primarily due to weak performance in the central air conditioning segment and increased asset impairment [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's central air conditioning business faced pressure, with revenue from the subsidiary Hisense Hitachi declining by 6% year-on-year to 10.66 billion yuan, and net profit down by 4.9% to 1.86 billion yuan. Domestic sales of central air conditioning dropped by 15.9%, while external sales showed a growth of 24.9% [2][3]. - The home air conditioning segment performed positively, with a revenue increase of approximately 14% year-on-year. The company’s ice washing business also saw a modest revenue growth of 4.8% [3][4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was reported at 21.48%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved overseas margins and rising margins in the ice washing segment [4][5]. - The report indicates a slight increase in expense ratios due to sports marketing and foreign exchange fluctuations, with the expense ratio rising by 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 3.75 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The report suggests that the company will benefit from the release of replacement demand and its strong brand presence [5][21]. - The target market capitalization is set at 490.98 billion yuan, with a target price of 35.42 yuan for A-shares and 30.62 HKD for H-shares, reflecting a valuation discount due to exchange rate and market volatility risks [5][24].

证券研究报告 北京时间 7 月 31 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，两名联储理事投票反对；决议声明调整偏鸽派，但鲍威尔讲 话未能提供 9 月降息的指引，发言偏鹰派。理事 Waller 和理事 Bowman 此 前要求 7 月降息，本次会议投票反对维持利率不变的决议，是 1993 年以来 首次出现两名理事投票反对；此外，决议声明对经济增长的评估从 expand at a solid pace 调整为 moderated，显示联储对增长下行的担忧。但是，鲍威 尔在记者中未能提供对 9 月降息的指引，强调就业市场稳健（solid），通胀 与目标的距离比就业更远。上述表态整体偏鹰导致联储降息预期回落，美元 走强。截至北京时间凌晨 3:50，相较于会前，9 月降息概率下降至 45%， 年内累计降息预期下行 7b 至 37bp；2 年期、10 年期美债收益率分别上行 6bp、2bp 至 3.94%、4.37%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.8；标普 500 下跌 0.8%；黄金下跌 0.9%至 3324 美元/盎司。 基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业市场较为稳健（solid），但承认 ...

Core Views - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, aligning with investor expectations [2][3] - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, prioritizing service consumption, and fostering international competitiveness in technology innovation [2][4][5] Focus Area 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [4] - Policies may increasingly focus on stimulating service consumption, with potential measures including issuing consumption vouchers and upgrading cultural tourism [4] Focus Area 2: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation remains a focal point, with a shift from specific sectors to nurturing emerging industries with international competitiveness, particularly in the domestic computing power chain [5] - The "anti-involution" narrative has been refined to emphasize lawful governance of chaotic competition and capacity management in key industries [5] Focus Area 3: Capital Market Policies - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to support enterprises at different development stages [6] - There was no separate discussion on real estate policies, indicating that future policy directions need further observation [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 150.00 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.626 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, and a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 88.66 million RMB, up 84.56 million RMB year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is focusing on vertical integration of "hardware + algorithms + optics" to optimize cost control and enhance the universality of key components, leading to a recovery in profitability [1]. - The company is accelerating its penetration into overseas markets through smart and localized strategies, aiming to capture a larger share of the global mid-to-high-end market [1]. - The automotive optical products have been successfully implemented in various models from clients such as Seres, JAC, and BAIC, indicating potential for growth beyond the retail market [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 350 million RMB, 404 million RMB, and 447 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 191%, 15.4%, and 10.8% [4][10]. - The expected EPS for the same years is 5.00 RMB, 5.77 RMB, and 6.39 RMB [4][10]. Market Conditions - The domestic market for smart projectors is under pressure, with a 3.9% decline in sales volume to 2.778 million units and a 2.9% decrease in sales revenue to 4.68 billion RMB in H1 2025 [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to increase its average selling price by 22.7% year-on-year across major e-commerce platforms [2]. Product Development - The automotive optical products are expected to contribute to revenue starting from H1 2025, although initial depreciation and amortization costs may impact profitability [3]. - The company’s long-standing expertise in projection technology is anticipated to create differentiated advantages in various application scenarios, including automotive and commercial uses [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the company's value enhancement based on three main factors: strong growth potential, favorable copper and gold prices, and the potential revaluation of gold assets [1][3] - The company has a clear plan for copper and gold production growth, with a projected CAGR of 8-10% from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in Q2, with a net profit of 13 billion RMB, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a significant rise in gold production and prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 13 billion RMB in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 28% and a non-recurring net profit of 11.6 billion RMB, up 18% [1] - The average gold price increased by 15% to 770 RMB per gram, and gold production rose by 15% to 21.9 tons [1] Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, expecting them to rise above 10,000 USD per ton in the long term due to supply constraints and strong demand [2] - Gold prices are anticipated to remain in the range of 3,100 to 3,500 USD per ounce, driven by inflation expectations and changes in global asset allocation [2] Valuation and Estimates - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 44.8 billion RMB, 51.8 billion RMB, and 58.8 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 39.67%, 15.70%, and 13.46% [4][7] - The target price is set at 25.92 RMB for A-shares and 27.91 HKD for H-shares, reflecting an increase of 15.25% and 28.44% respectively from previous estimates [4]

Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting maintained a "seeking progress while maintaining stability" approach, with a more positive assessment of the economic situation compared to April[2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% and noted that major economic indicators performed well, with exports growing by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year[2] - The focus is shifting towards enhancing internal capabilities and promoting high-quality development in response to international trade uncertainties[2] Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on accelerating local government special bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency[4] - In the first half of the year, broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3%[4] - There may be room for increased fiscal spending in the second half of the year, particularly in Q3 to Q4[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose" with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity, but there was no mention of potential interest rate cuts[4] - As of Q1 this year, the net interest margin of commercial banks fell to 1.43%, limiting the scope for further rate cuts[4] - Structural monetary policy tools will likely be emphasized to support technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises[4] Consumption and Industry Upgrades - Policies to promote consumption will continue, with a focus on improving living standards and expanding service consumption[5] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy system is expected to positively impact total consumption, accounting for approximately 0.2% of the 2024 total resident consumption[5] - The government aims to support key industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles through capacity management and policy backing[5] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected escalations in US-China trade tensions and lower-than-expected domestic demand recovery[5]