Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the manufacturing sector driven by advancements in AI and a reversal of the anti-competitive cycle [1] - Key companies highlighted for investment include Yokogawa Electric, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, and SANY Heavy Industry among others [2][3] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the machinery equipment industry, with a focus on companies that are positioned to benefit from emerging trends [6] Group 2 - The report details the performance of various sectors, with the best-performing indices including retail trade (+6.66%) and non-bank financials (+2.9%) for the week ending December 19, 2025 [4][19] - Within the manufacturing sector, the top indices were the China Aerospace and Military Industry Theme (+3.83%) and the Shanghai 50 (+0.32%) [20] - The report notes significant bidding activity in the controlled nuclear fusion sector, with over 5.6 billion yuan in bids since the beginning of 2025, indicating accelerated project development [7][8] Group 3 - The report discusses the strategic merger of Trump Media with TAE Technologies, valued at $6 billion, highlighting the increasing capital flow into the fusion energy sector [9] - TAE Technologies is noted for its innovative approach to fusion energy, utilizing hydrogen-boron fusion technology, which is seen as a cleaner alternative to traditional methods [9] - The report suggests focusing on core suppliers and flexible investment targets in the fusion energy supply chain, including companies like Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Xiguang Electronics [8][9] Group 4 - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, projecting revenue growth for companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Zhejiang Rongtai, with expected EPS growth from 0.63 to 1.20 for SANY from 2024 to 2026 [17] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the carrier tape market, where the company has a 74% market share in paper carrier tape and is expanding into the plastic carrier tape segment [10][12] - The report also discusses the potential of composite current collectors in the lithium battery market, projecting significant growth from $1.2 billion in 2023 to $3.4 billion by 2032 [12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6] Core Insights - The company is a leader in micro drive systems, with a customized business model that creates brand value barriers. From 2017 to 2024, revenue grew from 550 million to 1.53 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7%, and net profit increased from 49 million to 225 million yuan, with a CAGR of 24.3% [1][5] - The humanoid robot market is expected to see significant growth, with demand projected to reach 1.772 million units by 2030, creating a market space of 56.8 billion yuan for dexterous hands, of which the hollow cup motors and gear sets will account for about half, corresponding to a market space of 28.4 billion yuan [2][50] - The XR (Extended Reality) sector is anticipated to become a next-generation consumer electronics phenomenon, with shipments of XR headsets expected to reach 124 million units by 2028. The company's micro drive systems are core components in XR headsets, positioning it to benefit from this growth [3][25] - In the automotive electronics sector, the company has established long-term partnerships with major clients like Bosch and BYD, with revenue in this area growing from 192 million to 633 million yuan from 2019 to 2023, achieving a CAGR of 34.75% [4][33] Summary by Sections Micro Drive Systems - The company has been deeply engaged in micro drive systems for over 20 years, expanding its downstream market applications. It transitioned from producing precision injection parts to integrated products and customized solutions, now serving various industries including automotive electronics, communication devices, and robotics [15][20] - The micro drive systems are essential components in various industries, characterized by their miniaturization, high precision, and reliability, with a broad market demand [20][22] Humanoid Robots - The company focuses on dexterous hands, positioning itself in the core components like motors and gearboxes. It has launched self-developed dexterous hand products, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions in the humanoid robot market [2][39] - AI advancements are accelerating the humanoid robot industry, with significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers to participate in this growing field [39][42] XR (Extended Reality) - The XR industry is entering a rapid development phase, with major manufacturers entering the market. The company's micro drive systems are widely used in XR headsets, enhancing its growth potential in this sector [3][25] Automotive Electronics - The automotive electronics sector is undergoing a technological revolution, with increasing penetration rates and vehicle value. The company has capitalized on the growth of smart vehicles and established long-term relationships with key automotive clients [4][33] - Revenue from automotive electronics has significantly increased, with a notable 66% growth in 2022, and it now accounts for 52.5% of total revenue [4][33] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.899 billion, 2.409 billion, and 3.137 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 284 million, 404 million, and 529 million yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 87, 61, and 46 for the respective years [5][9]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Changling Hydraulic (605389), a leading company in hydraulic components, which is expected to enter a new growth phase due to the proposed acquisition by the Core Semiconductor Group [4]. - The anticipated revenue for Changling Hydraulic from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1,038 million, 1,248 million, and 1,534 million respectively, with growth rates of 17%, 20%, and 23% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 114 million, 143 million, and 181 million for the same period, with growth rates of 21%, 25%, and 27% [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that the slowdown in fiscal revenue growth in November is aligned with the overall economic slowdown, limiting support for fiscal income [5]. - The market outlook for 2026 suggests a strong fiscal expansion, with a potential slight increase in the deficit ratio, although the overall fiscal strength may decline [5]. - The bond market analysis highlights that the central bank's actions to inject liquidity are expected to keep year-end liquidity friction at historically low levels, with a significant decline in repo rates compared to previous years [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in optical resin lenses, with rapid development of its own brands and a clear trend towards product upgrades, particularly in the smart glasses sector, where it has a rare positioning advantage [8][14]. - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with forecasts of CNY 23.01 billion, CNY 26.16 billion, and CNY 29.79 billion for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of +11.3%, +13.7%, and +13.8% respectively [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 5.5 billion, CNY 6.8 billion, and CNY 8.2 billion for the same period, with growth rates of +29%, +23%, and +20% respectively [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 10.84 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of +11.0%, and a net profit of CNY 2.73 billion, up +30.7% [18]. - The revenue from standardized inventory lenses, functional lenses, and C2M customized lenses for 2024 is expected to be CNY 9.07 billion, CNY 7.55 billion, and CNY 3.95 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +9%, +32%, and +12% [19]. - The gross profit margins for standardized inventory lenses, functional lenses, and C2M customized lenses are projected to be 34%, 41%, and 62% respectively in the first half of 2025 [19]. Industry Analysis - The global optical lens market is projected to reach a retail value of USD 54.3 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of +8.4% [32][34]. - The Chinese optical lens market is expected to reach CNY 38.2 billion in retail value in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of +9.6% [38][44]. - The demand for functional lenses is expected to grow, driven by the increasing number of myopic and presbyopic individuals, with approximately 118 million children and adolescents affected by myopia in China by 2024 [44][46].

- The report discusses the impact of year-end liquidity disturbances on the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are temporary and do not alter the upward trend[1][10] - The main investment theme is shifting from technology to cyclical sectors, with recommendations for chemical ETFs, dividend ETFs, and brokerage ETFs[1][10] - The report highlights the importance of the dollar depreciation as a key factor supporting the A-share market's slow bull trend[1][10] - The report mentions the use of a fund position monitoring model to track the allocation of funds, noting increased allocations in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and transportation[1][11] - The report indicates that the technology sector's internal growth rate is slowing down, and the market is transitioning to cyclical sectors[1][11] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustments are due to year-end liquidity disturbances, with quantitative private equity products reducing their risk exposure significantly[1][12] - The report notes that the dollar depreciation trend, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI data, will continue to provide effective support for the A-share market's upward movement[1][13] - The report includes a section on timing strategies, mentioning the use of price segmentation systems and insider trading activity indicators[14][15] - The report provides industry monitoring data, including analysts' industry sentiment expectations and financing and securities lending trends[19][21] - The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, noting changes in market preferences and the performance of various factors such as turnover, financial leverage, and profitability volatility[24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Risk preference recovery and the strengthening of the equity nature in the convertible bond market suggest that the liquidity style is expected to strengthen again. The convertible bond market has entered the "high-beta stage of a slow bull market", with the pricing logic shifting from "bond defense" to "equity elasticity". The liquidity factor is expected to strengthen once more [1]. - In the short - term, as the global market's expectation of recent liquidity tightness eases marginally, the correction space of the convertible bond market with sufficient incremental funds may be limited. Under the slow - bull expectation, the equity market's spring rally is in the making, and the convertible bond market still has structural opportunities [2][11]. - In the medium - term, the marginal improvement in liquidity and market structural characteristics highlight the allocation value of the liquidity style. The liquidity factor is expected to shift from "steady contribution" to "strong performance" [3][18]. - In the long - term, the convertible bond market shows obvious liquidity premium. The liquidity style has the best performance under a market - neutral condition [4][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - From December 15th to December 19th, 2025, the small - and medium - cap stocks' trend was initially weak and then strong. The convertible bond market fluctuated upward following the underlying stocks. High - priced targets performed weakly, while low - priced convertible bonds performed strongly. The increase of convertible bonds was significantly lower than that of the underlying stocks due to the drag of high - priced convertible bonds. In terms of industries, the materials (+1.62%), optional consumption (+1.04%), and healthcare (+0.97%) sectors strengthened, while the finance (-0.43%) and information technology (-0.11%) sectors weakened [2][11]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was finalized this week, removing the suppressing factor for risk preference. The U.S. CPI data on Friday was lower than market expectations, providing more room for the subsequent monetary easing policy of the Federal Reserve [2][11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report presents the performance of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (recent week, recent two weeks, since September, recent month, recent two months, recent half - year, and recent one - year), such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc [21]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten convertible bond individual securities in terms of price increase and decrease in the recent week, but specific names and data are not fully presented [22][24]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report provides the moving average trends of the conversion premium ratios of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds over the weeks [28][30][34]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the trends of the proportion of high - priced bonds and the median price of convertible bonds [31][32].

证券研究报告 政策开始转向，逢低左侧布局 ——煤炭行业周报（12月第3周） 行业评级：看好 2025年12月20日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2025年12月19日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨0.6%，沪深300指数下跌0.28%，跑赢沪深300指数0.88个百分点。全板块整周23只股价上涨， 13只下跌，1只持平。云维股份涨幅最高，整周涨幅为21.31%。 3.动力煤产业链：截至2025年12月19日，价格方面，环渤海动力煤（Q5500K）指数699元/吨，周环比下跌0.57%，中国进口电煤采购价格指数816元/吨，周环比下跌2.28%。从港 口看，秦皇岛动力煤价格周环比下跌，黄骅港周环比下跌，广州港周环比下跌；从产地看，大同动力煤坑口价环比下跌11.2%，榆林环比下跌2.88%，鄂尔多斯环比下跌2.38%；澳 洲纽卡斯尔煤价周环比上涨0.37%。库存方面，截至2025年12月18日，全社会库存为18275万吨，周环比减少22万吨，年同比增加3786万吨； ...

Core Insights - The third round of bond market adjustments in 2025 may not be over yet, but there is potential for a delayed cross-year market rally if monetary easing expectations increase in January-February 2026 [1][3][27] Group 1: Understanding Recent Adjustments - The current bond market adjustment shows a structural characteristic where ultra-long-term bonds lead the decline, with the 30-year treasury bond reaching a peak yield of 2.28% on December 16, while the 10-year bond primarily experienced a corrective trend [1][11] - The adjustment in ultra-long-term bonds reflects weakened both allocation and trading power, with a significant increase in the supply of bonds over 10 years, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan by December 19, 2025, accounting for 11.66% of total bond issuance [13][19] - The adjustment pattern indicates that the third round may still be ongoing, potentially mirroring the structure of the second round, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating in an adjustment-recovery-adjustment manner [24][25] Group 2: Comparison of Adjustment Rounds - In 2025, there have been three notable rounds of adjustments, with the first round driven by unexpected tightening of the funding environment, leading to a significant rise in short-term rates [2][19] - The second round was characterized by a simultaneous rise in stock prices and a decline in bond prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and a reduction in bullish sentiment towards bonds [22] - The third round, starting from November 3, 2025, has shown a different driving force, primarily influenced by institutional behavior and the resumption of bond trading, rather than the funding and stock-bond dynamics that characterized the previous rounds [2][22] Group 3: Cross-Year Market Trends - Historically, the bond market has exhibited a calendar effect around the New Year, often showing upward trends before the Spring Festival, with notable increases in bond yields observed in 2022, 2024, and 2025 [3][26] - The 2025 cross-year market saw a decline of approximately 50 basis points in the 10-year bond yield from T-60 to T-18 days before the Spring Festival, followed by a period of consolidation [3][26] - If the third round of adjustments continues, the potential for a delayed cross-year rally remains, contingent on favorable monetary policy developments [27]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with major indices showing mixed performance, indicating a "three changes in direction over three days" characteristic [1][56] - Future trading strategies are shifting from "defensive volatility and reduced elasticity" to "finding entry points and waiting for opportunities" as the market adjustment becomes more sufficient [1][58] - The report suggests a cautious approach to timing, advising against chasing prices and increasing costs, while setting "strike zones" based on previous index lows [1][58] Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed results this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 rising by 0.03% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28% [12][56] - The consumer sector showed signs of recovery, with significant gains in retail and consumer services, while technology-related sectors experienced adjustments [15][57] - Average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.94 trillion yuan the previous week [17][28] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector saw notable recovery, with retail and consumer services rising by 6.58% and 4.40% respectively, while non-bank financials increased by 2.99% [15][57] - Conversely, technology-related sectors such as electrical equipment and electronics saw declines, with drops of 3.09% and 3.02% respectively [15][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, which is showing signs of underperformance but expanding market share, and suggests monitoring the home appliance sector, which historically performs well in December [1][58] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be considered, along with low-performing stocks above the annual line [1][58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company has established a joint laboratory with Lenovo Motorola to advance its 3D printing capabilities, focusing on the lightweight and complex structural design needs of communication devices, which is expected to become a significant growth driver [1] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the entire 3D printing industry chain, anticipating a future explosion in the consumer market for 3D printing [2] - The company is diversifying its business into semiconductor metal heat sinks and optical communication components, as growth in its traditional consumer electronics segment is limited [3] Summary by Sections 3D Printing Initiatives - The joint laboratory with Lenovo Motorola aims to enhance the economic and precision aspects of manufacturing complex structural components, potentially shortening the product development cycle and fostering innovation [1] - The company’s subsidiary has developed 3D printing equipment capable of printing titanium and aluminum, which supports mass production capabilities [2] Semiconductor and Optical Communication - The company is entering the semiconductor metal heat sink market, which is crucial for managing heat in advanced semiconductor devices, especially as chip technology advances [3] - The company has expanded its operations to include manufacturing and sales of optical communication devices, leveraging its automation capabilities to improve production efficiency [3] Financial Projections - Projected revenues are expected to grow from 830.33 million in 2024 to 2,410 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 41.68% [10] - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 52.29 million, and further increasing to 248.04 million by 2027 [10]