Group 1 - The report highlights the "engineer dividend" period for China's innovative drug industry, indicating that local innovations have gained full recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][5][53] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of various Chinese biotech stocks, with notable price increases observed in companies like Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (+199%) and Mawei Biopharmaceutical (+124%) in the A-share market [4][16] - The report identifies a significant increase in the number of first-in-class (FIC) drugs entering clinical trials in China, from only 9 in 2015 to an expected 120 in 2024, with China's global share of FIC drugs exceeding 30% [4][22] Group 2 - The report discusses the leading position of Chinese companies in the antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) sector, with over 50% global pipeline share in key targets such as HER2 and TROP2 [25][32] - It notes that two Chinese ADC drugs have entered the top ten global upfront payment rankings, indicating strong valuation potential for local innovations [30][31] - The report highlights the anticipated growth in bispecific antibodies (bsAbs), with Chinese companies dominating the top five global upfront payments for related assets [37][41] Group 3 - The report recommends several companies with significant global single product potential, including Kolon Biotech and Innovent Biologics, while also highlighting others like 3SBio and BeiGene as companies to watch [6][52] - It emphasizes the potential for substantial global pricing power for assets, particularly for companies like Rongchang Biopharmaceutical and Zai Lab, which are expected to see continued clinical data readouts [6][52] - The report suggests that companies like Innovent Biologics and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical are likely to turn profitable, with expectations of improved financial performance in the coming years [6][52]

Group 1: Manufacturing Weight Importance - The issue of "manufacturing weight" has gained significant attention from the central government since the 19th National Congress, with key deployments in the 2020 "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent meetings[1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests maintaining a reasonable manufacturing weight, aiming for a long-term target of 24.5% of GDP, as recommended by UNIDO[1][2] - China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP has decreased from a peak of 32% in 2006 to 25% in 2024, indicating a critical phase for maintaining this ratio[2][14] Group 2: Economic Implications - A manufacturing weight below 20% is a critical threshold that can lead to a downward trend, weakening economic resilience and development potential[15] - The manufacturing sector is essential for breaking through the middle-income trap and is a key driver of national security[4][15] - The investment share in manufacturing has rebounded from 26% in 2020 to 33% by October 2025, highlighting the cyclical relationship between manufacturing value added and investment[2][5] Group 3: International Comparisons - International experience shows a "U-shaped" trend in manufacturing weight, with developed countries maintaining a ratio above 20% to ensure economic stability[13][15] - Countries like Germany and Japan have stabilized their manufacturing weight around 20%, leveraging high-end manufacturing to maintain economic resilience[13][28] - In contrast, Brazil and Argentina have seen their manufacturing weights drop below 20%, leading to economic challenges and a low-value-added industrial structure[38]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 11 月 21 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商固收 覃汉/陈婷婷】债券市场专题研究：权益长牛如何重塑转债格局？——20251120 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.40%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，科创 50 下跌 1.24%，中证 1000 下跌 0.63%，创业板指下 跌 1.1%，恒生指数上涨 0.02%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是建筑材料（+1.40%)、综合（+0.87%)、银行（+0.86%)、通信（+0.51%)、房地 产（+0.33%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-2.39%)、煤炭（-2.10%)、电力设备（-1.96%)、石油石化（-1.52%)、 商贸零售（-1.42%)。 资金：周四沪深总成交额为 17082 亿元，南下资金净流入 159.9 亿港元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see a performance turnaround, with a promising start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Revenue growth is anticipated to recover gradually, with brand products expected to show stable growth [6] - The company has a good channel inventory, and its core products are less affected by price reductions from centralized procurement [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 6,515.16 million, with a slight decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous year, followed by a growth of 2.11% in 2025 and 10.40% in 2026 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 622.42 million in 2024, increasing by 5.21% year-on-year, with further growth of 15.39% in 2025 and 14.65% in 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.25 in 2024 to 0.37 in 2027 [2] Performance Indicators - The weighted ROE is expected to improve, reaching 8.05% by the end of Q3 2025, up by 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to increase from 53.14% in 2024 to 56.24% in 2027 [7] - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 10.10% in 2024 to 11.88% in 2027 [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios are 18.84 for 2024, decreasing to 12.47 by 2027 [2] - The projected P/B ratios are expected to decline from 1.76 in 2024 to 1.51 in 2027 [7] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 10.10 in 2024 to 7.22 in 2027 [7]

A+H 权益组合业绩评价框架 ——主动量化研究系列 核心观点 本报告中，我们对 A+H 跨市场权益组合业绩评价体系进行了构建，并给出了具体测 算流程。从结果看，可对组合收益来源及能力圈进行较好的评价。 ❑ A+H 组合评价：需解决哪些问题 组合评价体系包括业绩和风险两部分，一般我们需要其满足如下要求：精细化， 全面，灵敏，稳健。在这个过程中，需考虑不同市场结构对行业、风格的影响， 同时也需考虑汇率的波动。 ❑ 跨市场权益组合评价体系 对于 A+H 跨市场组合评价体系，基于现有成熟的风险维度，首先分别搭建两个 市场的模型：包含敞口和收益。对标基准，按市场进行权重分配，纳入汇率收 益。得到单独市场的敞口和收益拆分结果，然后进行汇总。 相关报告 1 《物价回归，决战 2026》 2025.11.18 2 《主线切换：涨价逻辑首选化 工》 2025.11.16 3 《A 股新常态：主线切换，情 绪不减》 2025.11.09 ❑ 收益拆分：汇率、市场、行业、风格、选股 以模拟组合为例，对其进行分析。整体看，组合超配 materials，低配 banks；偏 小市值、高换手、高盈利、动量。港股仓位超额收益为正，A 股为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the carbon market expansion and its impact on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting sectors [30][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the allocation plan for carbon emission rights in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step towards substantial carbon market expansion [1][11]. - The allocation plan emphasizes a stable transition with increased carryover allowances and a narrowed deviation range for carbon emission intensity, which is expected to enhance long-term emission reduction incentives while maintaining market stability [2][17]. - The carbon market is entering a new phase of systematic expansion and institutional deepening, with expectations for broader coverage and more precise regulation in the future [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the allocation plan for carbon emissions in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, which is a concrete implementation of earlier expansion policies [11][12]. - The plan focuses on direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes, excluding indirect emissions from electricity and heat consumption [12][13]. 2. Policy Impact - The continuity of the policy is strong, with a clear emphasis on using market mechanisms to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green transformation in industries [21][22]. - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to follow a principle of gradual inclusion, with new industries being added as they mature [23][24]. - Near the end of the year, carbon prices are showing signs of support, although the impact of the new allocation plan on carbon prices is expected to be limited [26][27].

Core Insights - The demand side indicates that the long bull market in equities, combined with the stock-bond seesaw effect, may lead to continued outflow of funds from the bond market, while the demand for convertible bonds remains resilient [1] - On the supply side, the prevalence of strong redemptions in convertible bonds is likely to continue, but issuance is expected to improve starting in 2026, leading to a potential new-old transition in market structure [1] - From a long-term perspective, convertible bonds are expected to enter a slow bull market alongside equities, but their performance is likely to be weaker than stocks and stronger than pure bonds [1] Demand Side Analysis - The stock-bond seesaw effect suggests that funds may continue to flow out of the bond market, with solid returns from equity markets driving this trend [2] - The core advantage of fixed income plus funds lies in their diversified asset allocation, which balances the risk-return characteristics of stocks and bonds [2] - Despite a slight outflow of funds recently, the demand for convertible bonds remains robust, with the share and scale of secondary bond funds significantly expanding in Q3 2025 [8] Supply Side Analysis - The convertible bond market saw a rapid contraction post-2015 bull market, with the market balance dropping to just 13.3 billion yuan by the end of 2015, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan from the previous year [11] - As the equity bull market continues, some existing convertible bonds will likely have strong redemption windows, and the prevalence of strong redemptions is expected to persist [11] - Starting in 2026, the issuance of convertible bonds is projected to improve, with an estimated supply of around 50-60 billion yuan, slightly better than in 2025 [16] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The historical valuation trends of convertible bonds generally follow the movements of the equity market, with the premium rate primarily driven by balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds [19] - In a bull market for equities, investors may prefer balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds to capture higher returns [19] - The current market faces challenges due to limited capacity for fund absorption and high price valuations, which compress the yield space for convertible bonds [19][20]

Market Overview - On November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.44%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.38% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 19 were non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.67%), defense and military (+1.11%), beauty and personal care (+1.09%), and banking (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-3.08%), real estate (-2.09%), media (-1.72%), building materials (-1.71%), and retail (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 19 was 17,426.66 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.591 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - In October 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure slowed down due to a combination of factors: a phase of retreat following a preemptive fiscal push earlier in the year and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - The Ministry of Finance reported that fiscal policy implementation fell short of expectations, with hidden debts increasing beyond expectations [5] Strategic Research - The market outlook suggests a "systematic slow bull" phase, indicating a slower and more systematic market movement [6] - Inflation is expected to return, with a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors in 2026 [6] - The market remains neutrally optimistic, considering various factors such as international conditions, economic cycles, domestic policies, capital flows, market sentiment, and broad valuations [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend, with fluctuations expected between the high point in February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of the range from 5,178 to 2,440 [6]

Market Overview - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.65%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.29%, the CSI 1000 dropped by 1%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.16% [5] - The best-performing sectors on November 18 were Media (+1.6%), Computer (+0.93%), Electronics (+0.12%), and Food & Beverage (+0.03%), while the worst-performing sectors were Coal (-3.17%), Electric Equipment (-2.97%), Steel (-2.85%), Nonferrous Metals (-2.8%), and Basic Chemicals (-2.67%) [5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 18 was 1,946 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.466 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Important Recommendations Company: Baiao Intelligent (300836) - The recommendation logic highlights the company's positioning in customized automation equipment, with opportunities in munitions and AI computing power expected to enhance profitability [6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,055 million, 1,368 million, and 1,774 million yuan, with growth rates of 126.4%, 29.7%, and 29.7% respectively. Net profit is forecasted at 122 million, 169 million, and 221 million yuan, with growth rates of 346.8%, 38.0%, and 30.6% respectively [6] Company: Lu Wei Optoelectronics (688401) - The recommendation is based on the company's rare capabilities in G11 and G8.6 high-generation platforms, benefiting from the IT-OLED market expansion and semiconductor recovery [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1,164.17 million, 1,568.91 million, and 2,120.63 million yuan, with growth rates of 32.96%, 34.77%, and 35.17% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 262.67 million, 366.91 million, and 514.29 million yuan, with growth rates of 37.62%, 39.68%, and 40.17% respectively [8] Key Insights Machinery Sector - The core viewpoint indicates a cyclical reversal, growth emergence, and acceleration of overseas expansion in the machinery sector [9] - The focus has shifted from emphasizing self-sufficiency to promoting overseas expansion, with growth expected in engineering machinery, industrial gases, and semiconductor equipment [9] Communication Sector - The communication sector is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on computing power, operator benefits, and satellite internet opportunities [10] - The domestic commercial rocket is anticipated to successfully conduct test flights, contributing to the sector's growth [10] Media and Internet Sector - The media and internet sector is projected to recover in 2026, driven by policy support, improved content supply, and accelerated AI commercialization [12] - The emphasis is on the structural improvement of content supply and the enhanced efficiency brought by AI applications in advertising and content creation [12] Computer Sector - The computer industry is witnessing a systematic breakthrough in domestic computing power, transitioning from technical advancements to commercialization of AI applications [14] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power and the commercial realization of AI, with catalysts including breakthroughs in domestic computing power [14]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a transition of the Chinese economy from a bottoming phase to a recovery phase in 2026, driven by three unexpected demand-side factors: U.S. fiscal expansion, rising exports, and improved real estate supply-demand dynamics [1][21][54] - U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 5.9% in FY 2026, with potential increases to 7.2% if tariff revenues are eliminated, which could lead to a medium-strength recovery starting in Q1 2026 [1][21][25] - The global supply chain reconstruction is expected to boost China's export growth, particularly in machinery and transportation equipment, which have shown significant growth since April 2025 [2][54][58] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with an estimated inventory clearance period of approximately 25.3 months as of September 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices by the end of 2026 [3][54] - The strategy emphasizes a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors, with particular attention to industries such as chemicals, new energy, and construction materials, which are expected to benefit from the recovery narrative [6][54] - The report highlights that the micro-cap stock market may continue its bullish trend, with an estimated net inflow of approximately 5 billion yuan per month from new private equity quantitative products [7][54]