Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to enter a peak season, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,077, with a year-to-date change of +1.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,070 CNY/ton, showing a year-to-date change of +10% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of +6% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 93 USD/ton, with a year-to-date change of +7% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 9,120,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +3% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 4,260,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +6% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,897,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +5% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 230,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, indicating a stable production environment [12][14]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.8%, while the CSI 300 also decreased by 0.8%. The STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.5%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.4%. The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline of 2.0% [5][7]. - The best-performing sectors included oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), while the worst-performing sectors were textiles and apparel (-2.4%), beauty and personal care (-2.3%), light industry manufacturing (-2.0%), non-ferrous metals (-2.0%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-1.9%) [5][7]. - The total trading volume across the A-share market was 12,809 billion, with a net inflow of 1.43 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][7]. Key Recommendations - The report highlights Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308) as a leading high-end casting company benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries. The growth potential is significant due to the expected surge in demand for AIDC, aerospace engines, and nuclear power [8]. - The company is increasing its investment in blade casing processing coating projects and advanced nuclear materials, which is expected to significantly enhance its production capacity and product value [8]. - Revenue projections for Yingliu Co., Ltd. are estimated at 3,132 million, 3,858 million, and 4,694 million from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 22% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 406 million, 555 million, and 742 million, with growth rates of 42%, 37%, and 34% respectively [8]. Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that the Ministry of Finance's actions in Q3 to replenish fiscal deposit accounts may be a key observation window for the Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction. The adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the second half of the year is also crucial [9]. - The mechanical equipment sector report emphasizes a focus on engineering machinery, humanoid robots, and overseas expansion. The global market for engineering machinery is expected to grow as international market share increases and domestic demand improves due to favorable macro policies [10][11]. - The report notes that AI and automation will drive growth in the next decade, with a focus on global supply chains and the emergence of competitive overseas enterprises [11].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The supply pressure for swine in 2025 is expected to be significant, with the breeding sow inventory projected to peak at 40.8 million heads in November 2024 before gradually declining [11][14] - The average weight of swine at market is increasing, with the industry average reaching 130 kg as of May 2023, up from 126 kg in the previous year, indicating a trend towards heavier market weights [11] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuffs, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and price recovery [18] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken supply is anticipated to remain robust, with breeding stock levels expected to reach historical highs, ensuring sufficient capacity for 2025-2026 [25] - Enhancing consumer demand for white feather chicken is crucial, with a focus on developing new consumption scenarios such as frozen foods and prepared dishes [35] - The yellow feather chicken sector is currently facing significant losses, with cost control being a critical factor for profitability, particularly for companies like Lihua Agricultural [36][39] Group 3: Feed Industry - The demand for pig feed is expected to gradually improve in 2025, driven by the recovery of breeding sow inventory and favorable profit margins in the breeding sector [42] - Companies like Bangji Technology and Hefeng Co. are highlighted as key players in the pig feed market, with potential for profitability recovery [42] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The traditional animal health market is recovering slowly, with increased demand for vaccines and medications as breeding enterprises return to profitability [56] - The pet healthcare market is emerging as a new growth area, with domestic brands expected to gain market share as consumer awareness increases [62] Group 5: Seed Industry - The traditional seed market is facing intense competition, with oversupply leading to price declines and a potential shakeout of smaller companies [72] - The focus on genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies in this space, such as Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [77]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supply shocks and is optimistic about the import substitution of new materials in the basic chemical industry [1][4] - The chemical raw materials and products industry achieved revenue and profit of 2.95 trillion and 115 billion respectively in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and a profit decline of 4.4% [12][19] - The chemical industry profit margin has dropped to a historical low of 3.9% as of mid-2025 [12][52] Group 2 - The report indicates that external demand may slow down in 2025, with oil prices under downward pressure due to OPEC+ increasing production [35][39] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize and recover due to a series of incremental policies, with GDP growth projected at around 5% for the year [43][44] - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products industry fixed asset investment growth has significantly slowed, with the operating rate dropping to 73.5% in Q1 2025 [24][26] Group 3 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the chemical industry, particularly in supply-restricted sectors such as phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and in high-concentration sub-industries like viscose staple fiber and vitamins [48][49] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in new materials, especially those related to import substitution, such as AI high-speed resins and fluorinated liquids [48][49] - The report suggests that the valuation of the basic chemical sector is at a historical low, with the overall PE and PB ratios at 22.29 times and 1.82 times respectively as of June 16, 2025 [52][53] Group 4 - The viscose staple fiber industry has not seen new capacity additions for several years, leading to a high concentration and potential for profit recovery [60][67] - The polyester industrial yarn sector is expected to see a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with no new capacity planned and increasing demand from the automotive sector [69][79] - The modified plastics sector is projected to grow due to the ongoing replacement policies in domestic appliances and the rise of new demands from robotics and low-altitude applications [81][90] Group 5 - The refrigerant market is expected to grow steadily, supported by the ongoing replacement policies and increasing demand from the automotive sector [92][93] - The report highlights the potential for the civil explosives industry to see demand exceed expectations due to high resource prices and ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects [95][96] - The phosphate chemical sector is projected to maintain high profitability due to sustained high prices and tight supply-demand conditions [99][100]

Investment Rating - The report rates the new tobacco industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The core consumer group for HNB (Heated Not Burned) products consists of traditional smokers aged 25-40 with a demand for smoking cessation or harm reduction, indicating a larger market expansion potential compared to vaping and oral nicotine products [3][19] - Glo Hilo is expected to gain rapid traction in Japan and Europe, benefiting core supplier Smoore [4] - The report highlights Smoore International and Yingqu Technology as core recommended stocks [5][146][151] Market Overview - According to the World Tobacco Development Report and Euromonitor, the HNB market is projected to reach a value of $38.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a global penetration rate of 6% (excluding China) [6] - In Japan, the HNB penetration rate reached 48% in March 2025, while Italy's rate was 31%, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. and low-to-middle-income markets [6][34] - The report notes that the HNB market has a stable double-digit growth rate and a concentrated competitive landscape, unlike the more fragmented vaping and oral nicotine markets [23] Competitive Landscape - The report details the competitive dynamics in key markets such as Japan and Italy, where Philip Morris holds a dominant market share of 69.8% in Japan and 82.8% in Italy, with British American Tobacco having significant room to catch up [35] - The U.S. market is highlighted as having potential for HNB growth, with a projected decline in traditional cigarette sales and an increasing acceptance of new smoking methods [42] Product Development and Innovation - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in HNB products, focusing on heating technology, temperature control, and flavor preservation to enhance user experience [6][144] - Major tobacco companies are investing in R&D to improve product performance and user experience, which is expected to facilitate the transition from traditional to new tobacco consumption [6][144] Financial Projections - Smoore International is projected to achieve revenues of 12.89 billion, 15.11 billion, and 17.35 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.48 billion RMB [146] - Yingqu Technology's IQOS business is expected to show quarterly improvement in 2025, with new products anticipated to drive growth in 2026 [151]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end casting components, benefiting from trends in AIDC, aerospace technology, and nuclear fusion industries [1][9] - The company has established a complete high-end component production system and is a key member of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry chain in China [18][19] - The company plans to issue 1.5 billion convertible bonds to enhance its production capabilities in turbine blade processing and advanced nuclear materials [9][33] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Overview - The company focuses on aviation engines and gas turbine products, benefiting from the demand for domestic large aircraft and AIDC [18] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end parts, aerospace technology, and advanced materials sectors, serving various high-end equipment fields [18][22] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2,513 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [4][25] - The company's sales gross margin is projected to be 34.2%, with a net margin of 10% for 2024 [27][28] Gas Turbine Sector - The global gas turbine market is estimated to be 28.14 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [46] - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in gas turbine blades, with a significant increase in orders, achieving a 102.8% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2][61] Aerospace Sector - The global aerospace engine market was approximately 113.97 billion USD in 2023, expected to reach 151.20 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.12% [67] - The company is positioned to benefit from the doubling of global aircraft numbers over the next 20 years, as predicted by Airbus [68] Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power industry is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.4% for installed capacity from 2023 to 2035 [3] - The company has established joint ventures to engage in nuclear fusion materials and components, enhancing its position in the nuclear energy sector [3][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the IMU sector, with significant growth potential in the fields of unmanned logistics, intelligent driving, and humanoid robotics [1][4] - The launch of the E6 unmanned logistics vehicle by Jiushi at a price of 20,000 yuan is expected to accelerate the growth of the unmanned logistics market [2] - The company has received multiple certifications, including the German TÜV Rheinland ISO 26262 for automotive functional safety, and is in mass production of high-precision inertial navigation products, indicating a strong position in the passenger vehicle market [3] - The humanoid robotics sector is anticipated to see substantial growth in 2025, with the company already achieving small-scale supply of IMU for humanoid robots [4] - The company reported a revenue of 142 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and a net profit of 3 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 636 million, 816 million, and 1,003 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 50.19%, 28.35%, and 22.89%, respectively [6] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 56.86 million, 78.44 million, and 94.62 million yuan, with growth rates of - and 37.95%, 20.62% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% from 2025 to 2027 [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve remains on hold, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The dot plot indicates expectations for 2 rate cuts this year, but there is significant division among officials regarding the timing[3] - Economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, reflecting uncertainties from tariff impacts[3] Group 2: Balance Sheet and Regulatory Adjustments - The current pace of balance sheet reduction is $50 billion for Treasury securities and $350 billion for MBS[2] - The Treasury's replenishment of the TGA account in Q3 may be a key observation window for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction[7] - Adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) are anticipated, which could enhance banks' capacity to hold U.S. Treasuries[8] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - U.S. equity and bond market liquidity is at historical lows, with foreign investors facing potential redemption pressures[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is adjusted to 4.5%, up from 4.4%[3] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast has been raised to 3.0%, up from 2.7%, primarily due to tariff impacts[3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要观点 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 19 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 19 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：6 月 18 日上证指数上涨 0.04%，沪深 300 上涨 0.12%，科创 50 上涨 0.53%，中证 1000 下跌 0.1%，创业板 指上涨 0.23%，恒生指数下跌 1.12%。 ❑ 行业：6 月 18 日表现最好的行业分别是电子（+1.5%)、通信（+1.39%)、国防军工（+0.95%)、银行（+0.92%)、 电力设备（+0.32%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.73%)、房地产（-1.35%)、建筑材料（-1.22%)、非银金 融（-1.16%)、轻工制造（-1.13%)。 ❑ 资金：6 月 18 日全 A 总成交额为 12217.64 亿元，南下资金净流入 12.42 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商煤炭 樊金璐】煤炭 半年行业策略 ...

行业评级：看好 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 黄金资源量 | 总市值（亿元） | | | | 全口径自产金（吨） | | | | 25E-27E | | 单吨产量市值（亿元/吨） | 单吨资源量市值（亿元） | | PE | | | （2024；吨） | 2025-06-16 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 产量CAGR | 2024 | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2027E | | 山金国际 | 277 | 569 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 3 | 1 5 | 34% | 8 1 | 3 9 | 2.1 | 1 8 | 1 2 | | 招金矿业 | 1304 | 672 ...