Market Overview - On June 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.15%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.2%, the STAR 50 gained 1.79%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.92%, the ChiNext Index climbed 2.3%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.06% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on June 24 were electric equipment (+2.85%), non-bank financials (+2.68%), retail (+2.64%), automotive (+2.63%), and machinery (+2.43%). The worst-performing sectors were oil and petrochemicals (-2.1%), coal (-0.22%), defense and military (+0.13%), transportation (+0.26%), and utilities (+0.28%) [4][5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on June 24 was 14,480.59 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.589 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][5] Key Insights - In the non-ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions are frequent, leading to strong price support. Factors such as large-scale power outages in Chile, declining ore grades, and maintenance in Indonesian mines have significantly reduced supply growth for the year. The overall supply growth rate is expected to be around 1.8%, with a notable decrease in annual supply growth [6] - The copper supply is projected to increase by approximately 420,000 tons in 2025, with a downward adjustment in production guidance from the Kamoa-Kakula mine due to operational interruptions [6] - The average cash cost of global copper mines in 2023 is estimated at 4,350 USD/ton, with a significant increase in costs over the past 20 years, indicating that copper prices are likely to remain above the 90% cost percentile [6] Industry Analysis - The quantum technology sector is witnessing significant advancements, with major companies outlining their quantum computing roadmaps, indicating the dawn of the quantum industry [8] - Investment opportunities in quantum communication are progressing rapidly, with a focus on key components in the upstream of the quantum computing industry [9] - Catalysts for investment include significant breakthroughs in quantum technology and updates to quantum computing roadmaps [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the stock [6]. Core Viewpoints - Sanofi Bio is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer in blood glucose monitoring products, leveraging cost-effectiveness and product advantages to capture market share, particularly in the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) segment [1][25]. - The blood glucose monitoring (BGM) market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2020 to 2030, driven by an increase in diabetes prevalence and improved health awareness [2][32]. - The CGM market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 34% from 2020 to 2030, with domestic products rapidly gaining market share due to their competitive pricing and technological advancements [4][53]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sanofi Bio focuses on blood glucose monitoring, with a significant market share in BGM and emerging growth in CGM products [25][26]. - The company has established a comprehensive product platform that includes BGM, CGM, and HbA1c testing [25]. BGM Market Analysis - The BGM market in China is expected to reach a scale of 110 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% [2][34]. - The market share of foreign brands in the BGM sector has decreased from over 90% to 40% in recent years, as domestic brands gain traction due to their cost advantages [2][33]. CGM Market Analysis - The CGM market is anticipated to reach 2.6 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 34% [4][53]. - Sanofi Bio's CGM products have received regulatory approvals and are expected to leverage existing BGM channels for rapid market penetration [4][10]. Competitive Advantages - Sanofi Bio's products are characterized by high accuracy and competitive pricing, with MARD values of 8.71% for personal versions and 7.45% for hospital versions [5][57]. - The company has a well-established distribution network, covering over 3,800 hospitals and more than 220,000 pharmacies, which supports its market presence [3][46]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Sanofi Bio are projected to be 4.44 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 6.51 billion yuan by 2027, with a net profit increase from 326.29 million yuan to 604.37 million yuan over the same period [12][14].

Market Overview - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.38%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 1.31%, the ChiNext Index went up by 0.39%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.67% [4] - The best-performing sectors on June 23 were Computer (+2.25%), Defense and Military Industry (+1.97%), Coal (+1.68%), Banking (+1.22%), and Environmental Protection (+1.2%). The worst-performing sectors were Food and Beverage (-0.8%), Home Appliances (-0.43%), Steel (-0.11%), Utilities (+0.11%), and Communication (+0.19%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on June 23 was 1,146.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.895 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The report focuses on the Media Internet sector, highlighting significant opportunities in the second half of 2025 [5] - Market attention is currently high, with notable performance in the gaming and film sectors, indicating a content recovery cycle. New business models like short dramas are experiencing rapid growth, and companies like Pop Mart are benefiting from consumer sentiment, leading to record stock prices [5] - The driving factors for the Media Internet sector include consumer stimulation, content recovery, and the rise of AI technologies, with a positive outlook for opportunities in this industry [5] - There is a more optimistic view on sectors such as gaming, film, trendy toys, and new energy vehicles, while suggesting a left-side layout in education [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the quantum technology industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Quantum computing aims to surpass traditional computing speeds for specific problems and eventually achieve universal quantum computing [3] - Quantum communication provides unconditional security through quantum key distribution, which has already reached initial commercialization [4] - Quantum precision measurement technologies are advancing, with market segments like quantum clocks and quantum gravity meters expected to exceed one billion dollars [5] Summary by Sections Quantum Computing - Quantum computing utilizes quantum bits (qubits) that can exist in superposition, allowing for parallel processing of multiple states simultaneously [16][22] - The main technical routes for quantum computers include ion traps, superconducting circuits, and photonic systems, each with its advantages and challenges [27] - The global landscape shows the U.S. leading in quantum computing, while China is making significant strides in midstream technology [29] Quantum Communication - Quantum key distribution (QKD) is a secure communication method that has achieved initial commercial viability, with a national quantum communication backbone network established in China [45] - Quantum teleportation, based on quantum entanglement, offers future possibilities for long-distance transmission of quantum states [48] Quantum Precision Measurement - Quantum precision measurement aims to achieve measurement accuracy beyond classical methods, leveraging quantum effects [54] - The market for quantum sensors, including quantum clocks and gravity meters, is projected to reach significant sizes by 2035, with expected revenues of $12 billion, $10.7 billion, and $10 billion respectively [71] - The industry is supported by advancements in quantum sensor technologies, with applications in various fields such as navigation, defense, and healthcare [73] Investment Opportunities - The quantum technology sector is still in its early stages, with investment opportunities in upstream components like lasers and dilution refrigerators, as well as in quantum communication network construction [6] - Key companies to watch include Quantum Computing Inc., D-Wave Quantum Inc., and various domestic firms in China [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a turning point for the defense and military industry in 2025, driven by internal demand recovery and accelerated military trade, with a focus on military trade, restructuring, and new domains and qualities [3][4][31] - The military trade sector is expected to open up significant growth and valuation opportunities, with a global arms race enhancing China's market share [4][41] - The report highlights key recommended companies in the defense sector, including AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, among others [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is projected to return to a growth trajectory in 2025, with a focus on military trade, restructuring, and new domains and qualities [3] - The military trade sector is anticipated to experience a turning point, with significant potential for growth as global military competition intensifies [4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the military sector (excluding shipbuilding) reported revenues of 760 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a net profit of 41.1 billion yuan, down 32% year-on-year [18][4] - The overall net profit margin for the military sector was approximately 5.4%, reflecting a decline of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [18][4] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various segments, including aviation equipment, engine equipment, naval equipment, and land equipment [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, among others [4][5] Market Trends - The military trade sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, which are driving demand for military equipment [54][56] - The report notes that the global arms race is intensifying, with both internal demand and military trade acting as dual drivers for growth in the defense sector [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck market showed a total sales volume of 85,000 units in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.97% and a slight month-on-month decrease of 3.08% [9][11] - The "old-for-new" policy has entered a substantial implementation phase, providing clear support for the heavy truck market, which is expected to maintain continuous growth in wholesale and terminal sales in the second half of 2025 [3][36] - The natural gas heavy truck market experienced a significant decline in sales, reaching a near four-year low, but is expected to recover in the second half of the year due to falling LNG prices and local subsidies [20][23] - The new energy heavy truck market saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 190% in May, achieving the highest penetration rate of 23.92% [28][32] Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Market Overview - In May 2025, the heavy truck market maintained a continuous year-on-year growth, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and an increase in terminal sales [9][10] - The market is currently facing challenges such as low freight rates and a surplus of vehicles, but the policy is expected to stimulate demand [10][18] Natural Gas Heavy Truck Performance - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks in May were 15,000 units, marking a year-on-year decline of 28.59% and a month-on-month decline of 12.28% [20][23] - The market is highly concentrated, with major players like FAW Jiefang leading the market [23] New Energy Heavy Truck Performance - The new energy heavy truck market achieved sales of 15,100 units in May, with a year-on-year increase of 190% and a penetration rate of 23.92% [28][32] - The market is characterized by a concentrated competitive landscape, with XCMG leading in sales [33][35] Investment Recommendations - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost the heavy truck market, with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 units eligible for replacement in 2025 [3][36] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see continued high demand for new energy heavy trucks, with key companies such as FAW Jiefang, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Foton Motor being favored [3][36]

Group 1: Key Insights from Social Services Sector - The offline sector is expected to enter a new development cycle after adjustments, while online platforms continue to face competition [4] - Consumer willingness is gradually recovering, and industry penetration rates are on the rise [4] - Structural opportunities exist between offline and online sectors, with a gradual easing of competition in the e-commerce landscape [4] Group 2: Key Insights from Fixed Income Market - Investors are advised to focus on long-term and ultra-long-term non-active bonds, as well as 20-year local government bonds for yield spread opportunities [5] - The market sentiment has shifted towards bullishness on long-term bonds, with expectations of accelerated market activity if key benchmarks drop [5] - The bond market is experiencing a "running ahead" trend, indicating a proactive investment approach [5] Group 3: Key Insights from A-Share Strategy - The market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern, with the current weight index in a "bullish divergence" state [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a portfolio structure centered around large financial institutions, particularly banks, as a stabilizing force [6][7] - The geopolitical situation and new consumer trends are influencing market adjustments [6][7] Group 4: Key Insights from Energy Metals Sector - The lithium industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with companies' price-to-book ratios reaching low levels [8] - Supply-demand balance in the lithium sector is expected to improve significantly by 2026, making it a favorable time to invest in companies with low costs and high growth potential [8] - The cobalt sector presents investment opportunities driven by policy catalysts, with specific companies recommended for attention [8] Group 5: Key Insights from Aviation and Airport Sector - The aviation supply-demand relationship is on the verge of reversal, with expectations for a strong summer travel season [9][10] - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the aviation industry remains positive, with demand expected to grow steadily [9][10] - The industry is projected to experience a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics by 2025, leading to enhanced profitability [9][10] Group 6: Key Insights from Taotao Automotive - Taotao Automotive has entered a strategic partnership with K-Scale, focusing on humanoid robotics [11] - The collaboration aims to leverage K-Scale's AI capabilities and Taotao's local manufacturing strengths in North America [11] - Potential investment opportunities arise from exceeding order expectations and optimizing competitive dynamics in the robotics sector [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Price Segmentation System - **Model Construction Idea**: The model analyzes the price movement of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) to identify marginal trends and align daily and weekly price patterns[15] - **Model Construction Process**: The model segments the price data of the SSE index into daily and weekly trends. It observes the marginal upward movement in daily data and compares it with weekly data to confirm alignment[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to track marginal price movements and assess consistency across timeframes[15] 2. Model Name: Micro-Market Structure Timing - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the activity level of informed traders to gauge market sentiment and timing opportunities[16] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses an "informed trader activity index," which tracks the marginal changes in informed trading activity. The index is observed near the zero line, indicating cautious market sentiment[16] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively reflects the cautious stance of informed traders during market volatility, providing insights into market timing[16] 3. Model Name: Institutional Positioning Estimation - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates institutional holdings in the TMT sector to assess the sector's positioning and potential rebound opportunities[14] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the institutional holding ratio in the TMT sector. As of June 20, the institutional holding ratio was 24.7%, corresponding to the 54.2% percentile over the past three years. This indicates a relatively cleared position structure, suggesting potential for early recovery[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a quantitative basis for assessing sectoral positioning and rebound potential, particularly in high-risk sectors like TMT[14] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Price Segmentation System - **Weekly SSE Index Change**: -0.51% during the period from June 16 to June 20, 2025[15] 2. Micro-Market Structure Timing - **Informed Trader Activity Index**: The index remained near zero, reflecting cautious market sentiment[16] 3. Institutional Positioning Estimation - **Institutional Holding Ratio in TMT**: 24.7%, corresponding to the 54.2% percentile over the past three years[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factors analyze the performance of fundamental and trading-related attributes to identify market preferences and style shifts[25] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Fundamental Factors**: Valuation factors, such as earnings-to-price (EP), are analyzed for their contribution to high-dividend asset returns - **Trading-Related Factors**: Momentum and volatility factors are assessed for their performance during market corrections - **Size Factors**: Both linear and non-linear size factors are evaluated to track shifts from small-cap to large-cap preferences[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture the dynamic shifts in market preferences, including the transition from small-cap to large-cap styles and the performance of high-dividend assets[25] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. BARRA Style Factors - **Valuation Factors**: High EP value assets demonstrated strong returns[25] - **Trading-Related Factors**: Momentum and high-volatility assets experienced drawdowns[25] - **Size Factors**: Positive excess returns for size factors, with reduced drawdowns in non-linear size factors, indicating a shift toward large-cap preferences[25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity. The net payment of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced and slightly loose [1]. - In the next week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [1]. - Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase funds and 182 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF matured. The central bank injected 960.3 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net weekly fund withdrawal of 7.99 billion yuan. The OMO stock decreased to 960.3 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this week [10]. - During the statistical period, the RMB/USD spot exchange rate depreciated by 1.86 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, based on the issuance start - date, the net financing of treasury bonds in the past week was 135.07 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.23916 trillion yuan, completing 48.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds (new general bonds + new special bonds) in the past week was 69.722 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.07865 trillion yuan, completing 40.0% of the annual plan. As of June 20, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts had reached 1.74 trillion yuan, completing 86.8% of the annual plan [14]. - In terms of fund structure, during the statistical period, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased, while that of money market funds and wealth management products decreased. The overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. Thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the DR series declined, with the overnight rate running below the policy rate. The spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate narrowed to less than 10bp. Due to quarter - end needs, the 14 - day funding rate increased marginally. The R series showed a similar trend to the DR series, and the liquidity stratification remained at a low level. Overall, the funding situation showed a pattern of "increasing volume and decreasing price" this week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday. After the central bank's intervention, the overall feeling was balanced [17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - In the primary market, during the statistical period, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was 8.068 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 110.232 billion yuan and a maturity of 102.164 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 113.781 billion, 24.579 billion, and 51.052 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6556% (previous value: 1.6744%) [20]. - In the secondary market, during the statistical period, the core buyers such as money market funds, wealth management products, and funds continued to increase their holdings. Large - scale banks changed from selling to buying, and insurance companies and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. City commercial banks, rural commercial banks were the main counterparties. The secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 0.02BP/ - 2.25BP/ - 2.50BP/ - 2.70BP/ - 3.34BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - In terms of the funding situation, in the past week, the funding situation fluctuated due to quarter - end liquidity needs. On Thursday, the funding situation tightened marginally, and the intraday interest rate started to rise. However, the central bank immediately switched to net injection to support the funding situation. On Friday, the 7 - day funding rate returned to a low level, and DR007 dropped below 1.50%. Recently, thanks to the central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity, the lending scale of large - scale banks increased significantly. The overnight rate has been running below the policy rate, and the spread between the 7 - day rate and the policy rate has narrowed to less than 10bp. The funding situation smoothly passed the tax - payment period. In the next week, the main focus of the funding situation will shift to month - end liquidity, and the net payment scale of government bonds will increase by over 70 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's end - of - quarter OMO injection and the MLF roll - over operation on the 25th. The funding situation is expected to remain balanced [26]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, in the past week, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity alleviated the liability pressure of banks, and the primary CD rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers increased marginally, and the secondary - market yield of CDs fluctuated and decreased slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion yuan, presenting significant supply pressure. However, the issuance pressure of CDs is expected to gradually ease. As the month - end approaches, the funding situation may fluctuate, and CD yields may continue to show a volatile trend [27]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 General Credit Bonds Show an Obvious Trend of Extending Duration - Under the assumption of long - term narrow - range fluctuations in the risk - free rate, the market has further explored credit - spread strategies. Since mid - May, the trading duration of industrial bonds has rapidly increased, with the latest trading duration approaching 4 years. The liquidity of long - duration credit bonds has indeed improved. The trading duration of urban investment bonds has remained relatively stable, currently at around 2.5 years [3][29]. - Driven by the long - duration credit - sinking strategy, the remaining space may be quickly exhausted. In terms of spreads, the 3 - year - 1 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 9 - 10bp away from the previous low, and the 5 - year - 3 - year AAA medium - and short - term note term spread is 7 - 8bp away from the previous low. The credit - bond duration - sinking situation has reached an extreme level. In terms of yield distribution, currently, the yields of most general credit bond assets with a maturity of over 3 years are concentrated below 2.1%, indicating limited high - yield assets available for exploration [3][30]. 3.2.2 Review of Key Secondary - Market Transactions by Institutions - Large - scale banks: In the past week, the trend of large - scale banks' net buying of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years continued, with a buying scale of approximately 51.7 billion yuan [35]. - Interest - rate bond buyers: Funds remain the main buyers of interest - rate bonds. In the past week, the net purchase scale was approximately 141.2 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in volume. Rural commercial banks were one of the main sellers, with a net selling scale of approximately 127.2 billion yuan. In the case of 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds, funds also maintained strong buying power, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies were the main bond suppliers [35]. - Inter - bank CD buyers: The main buyers of CDs are wealth management products and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and securities firms [35]. - Credit - bond buyers: The net purchase scale of major non - banking buyers continued to increase significantly. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest incremental purchase. In the past week, the net purchase scale of funds reached 46.8 billion yuan. The net purchase scales of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years and ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years remained relatively stable, and the non - banking buyers showed a significant increase in volume [35]. - Subordinated - bond buyers: Funds continued to net sell subordinated bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, with a net selling scale of approximately 5.1 billion yuan in the past week. Wealth management products and other products net bought 4.5 billion yuan. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 2 - 5 years, the main buyers slightly reduced their purchases. Funds and other products had the largest net purchase scales, at 14.5 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan respectively. For subordinated bonds with a maturity of 5 - 10 years, the net purchase scale of funds increased slightly, reaching 4.5 billion yuan in the past week [35]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Bond - Market Microstructure - On June 20, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.87 years, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [36]. - In the past week, the bond - market leverage ratio was 107.83%, continuing to rise compared to the previous period [38]. - On June 20, the 10Y China Development Bank bond - 10Y treasury bond term spread was 3.74bp, showing a volatile narrowing trend. The 1Y China Development Bank bond - R001 spread was 4.87BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funding prices slightly widened [41].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 22 日 风偏下行，待时而动 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周市场走势偏弱，地缘冲突影响下市场风偏下行。权益市场层面，阶段性调整权益 市场或将迎来做多窗口。虽然近期中东地缘局势再次扰动全球风险偏好，A 股短期跟 随震荡调整。不过地缘事件对国内而言更多是情绪上的短期冲击，影响 A 股的核心因 素仍为自身结构性问题。可转债市场同权益市场共振，市场矛盾集中于政策与业绩兑 现的时滞，结构性机会仍主导交易节奏，后期有望维持中性偏强格局。在供需支撑与 波段操作博弈下，估值中枢有望保持高位、条款与期权价值博弈交织。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 分析师：陈婷婷 执业证书号：S1230525050001 chentingting01@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《待到资产尽荒时，此差压尽 更无差》 2025.06.21 2 《"6 月布局"转为"6 月抢 跑"，把握泛超长债机会 ...