Group 1: US Tariff Policies - Trump announced a delay in the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with tariffs on imports from 14 countries ranging from 25% to 40%[8] - A 50% tariff on imported copper and a potential high tariff on pharmaceuticals were threatened, with a 35% tariff on Canadian goods also announced[8] - Countries facing tariffs may see comprehensive tariffs of 15% to 20% if they have not yet received tariff notifications[8] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump approved additional defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia, indicating a shift to a tougher stance on unresolved issues[4] - The EU's Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for economic rebalancing and "de-risking" in relations with China, highlighting a strategic shift in European diplomacy[14] - The upcoming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations may lead to a framework agreement, despite existing tensions and differing national interests among negotiating countries[12] Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing high tariffs may serve as a tool to accelerate trade negotiations, but the long-term risks of these policies remain significant[12] - The US is focusing on strategic supply chains, with ongoing investigations into sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors under Section 232[17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential for increased cooperation among non-US regions as they respond to US tariff pressures[16]

Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 2.32%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 2.76% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.12, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.19%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.00 [4][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing focus on stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA), particularly in light of recent discussions by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regarding cryptocurrency and stablecoin development [6][9]. - RDA (Real Data Assets) is highlighted as a key innovation in the RWA space, aiming to enhance the marketization and valuation of data elements, thus driving efficiency in the integration of real assets and capital [10][12]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 284 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,586.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3,156.1 billion [3]. - The computer sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 78.1% over 12 months and relative performance of 62.3% compared to the benchmark [5]. Market Developments - The report notes significant developments in the stablecoin sector, particularly the push for a pilot program for RMB stablecoins in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [9][10]. - RDA is positioned as a transformative force in the data asset market, with its framework designed to facilitate the valuation and trading of data assets, thereby unlocking new financing channels for enterprises [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in stablecoin issuance, cryptocurrency exchanges, IT service providers, and cross-border payment firms, with specific mentions of companies like 恒生电子, 顶点软件, and 朗新集团 [15][16]. - It also highlights the potential of RDA to accelerate the marketization and valuation of data elements, recommending investments in infrastructure firms and data service providers [16].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company continues to experience high revenue growth, with Q2 2025 revenue expected to be between 57.8 and 59.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.7% to 36.5% [1][6] - The company is focused on building a platform beverage company, with strong performance across all product categories and an increase in investment in frozen beverage infrastructure [1][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 8.55, 10.68, and 12.88 yuan respectively [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 206.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31% [2][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.447 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase [2][14] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 73.9 in 2023 to 33.9 in 2025 [2][14] Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 51.6% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [2][14] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 45.5% by 2025 [2][14] - The company aims to enhance its channel management and operational capabilities, with a target of over 4.3 million retail outlets [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of zero-carbon parks has officially started, accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of industries [10] - The national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year, indicating strong electricity demand growth [6][10] - The report recommends specific companies such as Sheneng Co., Guodian Power, and China Nuclear Power, while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funiu Co. [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks, marking the beginning of standardized implementation [10] - The approval of a cross-grid trading mechanism aims to optimize electricity resource allocation and support power supply during peak summer periods in 2025 [14] Market Performance Review - The environmental and public utility sector indices increased by 3.17% and 1.11% respectively, with the environmental sector outperforming the market [19] - Year-to-date, the environmental sector has risen by 11.72%, leading over the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [19] Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 630 CNY/ton, up 1.61% from July 4, 2025 [34] - The average price of LNG at the port was 12.94 USD/MMBtu (4829 CNY/ton), reflecting a 3.80% increase from July 3, 2025 [52] - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 350.77 CNY/MWh on July 9, 2025, a 31.4% increase [56] Industry Key Events - The implementation of market-oriented pricing for renewable energy projects in Shanxi Province aims to enhance the high-quality development of renewable energy [64] - The establishment of a carbon peak pilot project in Yancheng City focuses on monitoring and analyzing carbon emissions across various sectors [65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 0.6% from July 6 to July 12, 2025, with a notable increase in the dealer inventory warning index to 56.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.9 percentage points [1][2]. - New vehicle launches include the Li Auto i8, set to debut on July 29 with a starting price of 350,000 yuan, and the Leap Motor B01, which will be launched in late July with a price range of 105,800 to 135,800 yuan [1][32]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was negative, with the CS Automotive index down by 0.6%, while the Shanghai A index rose by 1.1% and the Shenzhen A index increased by 2.0% during the same period [2][8]. - Among the automotive sub-sectors, the automotive services sector saw a weekly increase of 3.1%, while both passenger and commercial vehicle segments experienced declines of 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively [10][2]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Changchun Yitong (+17.4%), Jiuling Technology (+14.5%), and Fosa Technology (+13.7%), while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Quan Feng Automotive (-9.0%), and Ningbo Fangzheng (-8.0%) faced significant declines [14][18]. - Among covered stocks, Yunyi Electric (+6.6%), Huawei Technology (+6.1%), and Zhongrong Electric (+5.8%) showed positive movements, while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Xinquan Co. (-6.7%), and Rongtai Co. (-5.6%) experienced losses [18][14]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD has achieved L4-level smart parking capabilities, promising full liability coverage for accidents caused by its smart parking system [25]. - Chery Automobile plans to launch two new SUV models in the UK market, enhancing its competitive presence in Europe [24]. - The report highlights strategic partnerships, including a collaboration between CATL and Geely to deepen cooperation in battery technology and supply chain management [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, including Jingyuan International, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4][34]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in revenue growth for leading manufacturers, with a positive outlook for NIKE as inventory and channel conditions improve, suggesting a potential for sequential sales growth [1][3]. - The U.S. retail market has shown signs of recovery, with a positive growth trend in terminal retail sales and stable inventory levels, while Southeast Asian textile exports remain robust [2][11]. - New product launches from major international brands in sports fashion and outdoor segments are expected to increase, with a focus on market feedback for these new offerings [15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Prosperity Analysis - Demand Side: U.S. terminal retail sales have shown recovery in Q2 2025, with healthy inventory levels. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 16% year-on-year in June 2025, while footwear exports decreased by 3% [2][13]. - Industry Trends: Major international brands are gradually launching new products in July, with an emphasis on monitoring market responses [15]. Supply Chain Tracking - Brand Side: NIKE's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, down 12% year-on-year, but inventory clearance and channel expansion are progressing well, with expectations for sequential improvement in sales [3][17]. - Manufacturing Side: Revenue growth for leading manufacturers showed marginal improvement in June, with specific companies reporting varied performance, such as Yuyuan's manufacturing business up by 9.4% and Yuchi's outdoor footwear revenue up by 23% [24][29]. Investment Recommendations - Jingyuan International is recommended for its diverse product range and operational efficiency, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE of 8.5X for 2025 [4][34]. - Shenzhou International is highlighted for its recovery in capacity utilization and production efficiency, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X for 2025 [4][34]. - Huali Group is noted for its optimized customer structure and ongoing capacity expansion, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 15X for 2025 [4][34].

Domestic Economic Insights - The economic growth rate in the first half of the year significantly exceeded the annual target, providing a window for structural adjustments in policies[1] - Recent policies such as the suspension of "national subsidies" and the halt of "high-interest high-return" policies have notably impacted the automotive supply chain, with both supply and demand showing clear signs of decline[1] - As of July 13, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is significantly lower than the same period last year, and the growth rate of automobile sales continues to decline[1] Export and Trade Dynamics - High-frequency data indicates that June exports may still be relatively strong, with container throughput rebounding since late June, likely related to the upcoming suspension of tariffs on August 10[1] - The potential for short-term exemptions or reductions in tariffs on fentanyl between China and Mexico has emerged, indicating a trend towards cooperation[1] Global Market Trends - The current "strong US stock market + weak dollar" scenario is expected to boost risk appetite and liquidity in non-US equities, with the dollar remaining weak as long as it stays within the 95-100 range[2] - Global equity markets have shown a rotation pattern this year, with indices like Germany's DAX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Technology leading the way, suggesting a potential upward breakout for the Hang Seng Technology index in the coming weeks[2] Key Upcoming Events - Important dates to watch include the release of the US June CPI data on July 15, Q2 earnings reports for US stocks from mid-July to early August, and changes in US tariffs on August 1 and 10[1]