Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Due to the marginal weakening of December's consumption, investment, and new residential credit data, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there are still expectations of monetary easing, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upside space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly experience shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, the view reference is shock consolidation, and the core logic is the decreased short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures had a narrow - range shock consolidation yesterday, are in a shock - consolidation stage with limited upside and downside. Weak December data leads to expectations of monetary easing, supporting treasury bond futures, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the upside [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed, with inventory destocking narrowing. The production of plate mills has stabilized. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils has increased by 38,000 tons week-on-week, rising again and remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory level is high, and the supply pressure persists. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly week-on-week, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold-rolled products. However, the accumulation of contradictions needs to be guarded against, and the external export demand is average. The demand resilience needs further tracking. Currently, both supply and demand of hot-rolled coils remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. However, there are concerns about demand. If the demand weakens, it may intensify industrial contradictions, and the price is likely to be under pressure. The positive factor is that the commodity sentiment is good, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalog Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 3.0921 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 38,000 tons, a monthly increase of 47,000 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 53,200 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a monthly increase of 0.21 percentage points compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1.23 percentage points compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 884,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 100 tons, a monthly increase of 20,500 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 34,800 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 3.1141 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14,500 tons, a monthly increase of 6,400 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 103,300 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 3.5558 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 153,800 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 456,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The in-plant inventory is 772,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,700 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 1,000 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar). The social inventory is 2.7833 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 28,100 tons, a monthly decrease of 103,100 tons compared to the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 455,700 tons compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The inventory continues to rise, steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore runs smoothly. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, and steel mills mainly replenish inventory normally before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for ore will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. The reduction of port arrivals is limited according to the shipping schedule, domestic ore supply is stable, and combined with the high inventory, the supply pressure of ore remains. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has rebounded in shock. However, the supply pressure of ore remains under the high - inventory situation, and the ore demand is weak. The fundamentals of ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a volatile operation under the game of long - and short - term factors. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of steel mills [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,022.26, with a week - on - week increase of 255.73, a monthly increase of 1,051.37 compared with the end of last month, and a year - on - year increase of 2,019.30 compared with the same period (lunar calendar). 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,968.59, with a week - on - week increase of 579.77, a monthly increase of 1,022.05, and a year - on - year decrease of 105.49 [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,530.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 129.70, a monthly decrease of 71.40, and a year - on - year decrease of 304.30. The global iron ore shipment volume is 2,978.30, with a week - on - week increase of 48.50, a monthly decrease of 698.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 133.80 [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 227.98, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12, a monthly increase of 0.55, and a year - on - year increase of 3.61. The 45 - port average daily ore - clearing volume is 332.31, with a week - on - week increase of 21.58, a monthly increase of 7.10, and a year - on - year increase of 6.04. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 280.96, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.94, a monthly increase of 0.29, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 90.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.87, a monthly increase of 9.97, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指震荡分化，IH 涨幅居前，IC 与 IM 冲高回落。沪深京三市成交额 32594 亿元， 较上日放量 2671 亿元。由于监管层希望控风险的预期较为明确，以及本轮股票反弹的涨幅主要由估 值端贡献，短期内股指上行驱动有所减弱。前期涨幅较大的 IM 与 IC 震荡整固的需求较强，而 IH 的 防御属性受到资金关注。中长期来看，政策面利好预期以及增量资金持续净流入股市的趋势构成股指 上行的主要支撑力量。不过短期内资金面在追涨与止盈之间出现分歧，股指陷入震荡整理的可能性较 大。总的来说，短期内股指震荡整理为主。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震 ...

1. Report Title and Type - The report is titled "Rebar Weekly Data (20260130)" and is a futures research report [1] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with an expanding inventory increase. The production of construction steel mills stabilizes. The weekly rebar output increases slightly by 0.28 tons week - on - week, and the supply remains stable at a high level. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the successive shutdowns of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the rebar demand continues to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency trading volume decreasing week - on - week and remaining at a low level compared to the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, dragging down steel prices. Overall, the supply is stable while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals continue to be weak. The steel prices in the off - season are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13] 3. Data Summary Supply - The weekly output is 199.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons, and a monthly increase of 11.61 tons compared to the end of last month. The output is 0.42 tons higher than the same period last year (lunar calendar). The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a monthly increase of 0.21 percentage points, and 1.23 percentage points higher than the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3] Demand - The apparent demand is 176.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.12 tons, a monthly decrease of 24.04 tons compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 13.65 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 7.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76, a monthly decrease of 2.60, and a decrease of 1.50 compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3] Inventory - The total inventory is 475.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.43 tons, a monthly increase of 53.50 tons compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 57.68 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The in - plant inventory is 149.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 tons, a monthly increase of 9.76 tons, and an increase of 23.59 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The social inventory is 326.40 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.28 tons, a monthly increase of 43.74 tons, and an increase of 34.09 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The report believes that crude oil will operate strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have increased, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong stance on Friday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Crude Oil 2603 - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Strong [1] - View reference: Strong operation [1] - Core logic: Geopolitical risks have increased, and crude oil operates strongly [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [5] - Reference view: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals. Greenland and Canada may be the next targets for the US to seize and attack. With the short - term arrival of US aircraft carriers in the Middle East and Iran's tough remarks, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have increased again, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东南亚 产区也将迎来低产季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。近期 国内能化板块维持 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 氛围有所改善，焦煤偏强运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 持续性支撑不足，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：1 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约一度涨至 1200 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 议息会议落地，避险需求推升金 价 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高，沪金一度高达 1250 元/克，纽约金一度高达 ...