Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and rebar supply has slightly shrunk, but the reduction is limited due to decent profit per ton. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish and mostly at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. However, prices have fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will shift to low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak fundamental operation and low - level oscillation of steel prices. The calculation of price increase or decrease amplitude is based on the closing price of the night session (for products with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for products without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the day session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, 0 - 1% decline is oscillatory with a downward bias, 0 - 1% increase is oscillatory with an upward bias, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. Oscillatory with an upward or downward bias only applies to the intraday view [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Supply has slightly shrunk but the reduction is limited due to profit. Demand has not changed much, with weekly apparent demand increasing slightly but other high - frequency indicators being sluggish. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand remains seasonally weak, dragging down steel prices. In the off - season, steel prices are under pressure but have reached near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, and the subsequent trend will be low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

Report Core View - The economic ideas and market operation thinking in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" have important reference significance for today's futures investment transactions, and investors can improve investment success rate and return level by learning from them [5] Key Points Influence of National Policies on the Market - The national macro - policies in the futures market, like the state intervention in the salt and iron monopoly policy in the Western Han Dynasty, have a crucial impact on the market trend, such as reserve and import - export policies affecting commodity futures prices [2] Different Market Participants - In the futures market, hedgers are similar to producers or consumers in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" who want to ensure their own interests through a stable market, while speculators are like those who look for business opportunities in policy changes [3] Market Supply - and - Demand Relationship - Supply - and - demand relationship is a core factor determining price trends in futures trading, similar to the impact of salt and iron supply and demand on prices in "Discourses on Salt and Iron" [3] Investment Philosophy - In futures investment, investors should pursue both profit and market fairness and stability, and avoid excessive speculation. They should also maintain a rational and objective attitude and make comprehensive analyses [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since January 2026, Shanghai copper has been oscillating at a high level above 100,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The rise in copper prices since last September was driven by loose macro - policies, marginal contraction of overseas mine supply, and strong demand expectations [2]. - In 2026, in the context of loose macro - policies, rigid supply constraints and green - intelligent demand will continue to support copper prices, making the long - term upward foundation more solid. However, due to frequent geopolitical events and high cumulative price increases, copper prices are expected to shift to a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [4]. Summaries by Related Aspects Macro - economic Situation - The global financial environment is moving towards significant loosening, leading to a general rise in major global stock markets and a widespread rally in the commodity market. Copper stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 price high in Q4 2025, supported by its supply - demand fundamentals [2]. Industry - level Analysis - Supply bottlenecks will provide a solid bottom support for copper prices. In China, the growth rate of refined copper production may slow down significantly under the dual influence of negative processing fees and industrial policies. CSPT members will reduce their mine - copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, which will intensify the supply shortage of refined copper [3]. - Structural demand provides long - term growth momentum for copper consumption. The global copper demand growth engine has shifted to "green energy". In China, grid investment and automobile electrification will contribute to growth; in North America, AI data center construction will drive copper demand for supporting power grids [3]. Demand - side Situation - The State Grid's investment plan during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan period. This will directly and stably boost copper consumption and strengthen copper's core strategic position in energy transformation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the performance of each stock index was differentiated. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performed strongly, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 performed weakly. The total trading volume of the stock market was 262.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.05 billion yuan from the previous day. With the policy signals of the regulatory authorities to reduce leverage and control risks, the optimistic sentiment in the stock market has cooled down, and the trading volume of the stock market has declined. The stock index has entered a volatile consolidation market. [4] - From the latest macroeconomic indicators, the macroeconomy has strong resilience, but the problem of weak domestic demand still exists. The expectation of macro - policy support for demand in the future is relatively clear. On the other hand, the policy side has a strong determination to support technological innovation and boost consumption. A series of subsequent policies will form a positive policy expectation for small - and medium - cap technology - growth stocks. [4] - In the short term, the inflow of margin trading funds has slowed down, and the driving effect of funds on the stock index has weakened. The upside and downside space of the stock index is limited in the short term. However, the positive policy expectation and the trend of continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. The main logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index remains unchanged. In general, it is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate in the short term. [4] - In terms of options, since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index is relatively solid, it can be treated with a bull spread strategy. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 21, 2026, 50ETF fell 0.16% to close at 3.145; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.13% to close at 4.730; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.02% to close at 4.924; SSE 300 Index rose 0.09% to close at 4723.07; CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% to close at 8247.68; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.30% to close at 8.432; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.18% to close at 3.348; GEM ETF rose 0.55% to close at 3.281; SZSE 100ETF rose 0.17% to close at 3.503; SSE 50 Index fell 0.11% to close at 3067.18; STAR 50ETF rose 3.59% to close at 1.62; E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 3.64% to close at 1.57. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 21, 2026 and the previous trading day are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, SSE 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in January or February 2026 are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, SSE 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, GEM ETF options, SZSE 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options. [8][9] 3.2 Relevant Charts - For each type of option (such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc.), there are charts showing the underlying asset trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and term - at - the - money implied volatility. [10][21][24][37][46][60][73][86][99][112][125][135]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.35%日跌幅，量缩仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，叠加成本下行拖累，预计淡季钢价仍将承压，延续震荡偏弱 运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Copper, it fell below the 1 million RMB mark last night and rebounded with increased positions today, with the main contract price closing above the 1.01 million RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved today, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and the monthly spread rebounded slightly. Technically, continue to monitor the long - short battle at the 1 million RMB mark [6]. - For Shanghai Aluminum, it rebounded with increased positions today, and the main contract price returned to the 24,000 RMB mark. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, the weak reality pattern remained unchanged, and the monthly spread continued to be weak. Keep an eye on the long - short battle at the 24,000 RMB mark [7]. - For Shanghai Nickel, it rebounded with reduced positions today, and the main contract price closed above the 143,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, port inventories of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while exchange nickel inventories continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, the nickel price has repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded below the 140,000 RMB mark in the short term, indicating strong technical support [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In December, copper cable exports covered 31 provinces, with the proportion of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang increasing. Looking forward to January, affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking and logistics factors, enterprises will accelerate order delivery, and the "pre - holiday rush" is expected to drive a moderate increase in export volume [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of January 20, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $65.86 per ton, down $0.08 from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in caustic soda prices. Some prices of imported bauxite remained flat, while some decreased. For domestic bauxite, due to bad weather, some mines in the northern region had short - term production cuts and transportation disruptions, and the supply remained tight in the short term, with prices expected to remain stable. In the import market, the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers decreased compared with the previous period, the market was quiet, and some alumina plants were cautious in their procurement plans [11]. - **Nickel**: On January 21, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 139,800 - 150,000 RMB per ton, with an average price of 144,900 RMB per ton, down 1,450 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 RMB per ton, with an average premium of 9,000 RMB per ton, up 750 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 600 RMB per ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts consist of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is showing a strengthening trend. The futures and spot prices have both increased in the past 10 trading days, and the policy window period has promoted "rush exports" [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 166,740 yuan/ton, up 6,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The settlement price was 164,580 yuan/ton, up 9,120 yuan/ton from the previous day [5][7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was 158,580 yuan/ton, up 3.96% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Base - Spread Analysis**: The current base - spread was - 6,000 points (spot discount), 3,080 points weaker than the previous day, and the base - spread has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 28,656 lots, an increase of 975 lots (+3.52%) from the previous day, showing an overall increase in the past 10 trading days [5]. - **Supply - Demand Relationship**: The policy window period promotes "rush exports" [5]. - **Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and lithium hydroxide have changed to different extents compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. 2. Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate base - spread, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of the main lithium carbonate futures contract [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 21, the coke main contract was reported at 1,683.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday loss of 0.59%. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 38,400 lots, a decrease of 71 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. Currently, coke maintains a situation of weak supply and demand, with a weakening cost - support due to increased Mongolian coal imports and concerns about iron - water production cuts caused by steel mill accidents. The futures price remains weak at a low level [6][30]. - On January 21, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,129 points, down 1.83% intraday. The position volume of the main contract at the close was 515,400 lots, a decrease of 17,288 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. Overall, the import of Mongolian coal remains high, resulting in a situation of increased supply and stable demand for coking coal. Without policy intervention, coal prices may remain low before the Spring Festival [7][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Fiscal - financial coordinated policies to boost domestic demand have been implemented, including loan interest subsidies for small and medium - sized enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimized interest subsidy policies for service industry business entities and individual consumer loans [8]. - On January 21, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1,640 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,240 yuan/ton | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,550 yuan/ton | - 2.52% | 2.65% | 4.03% | 3.33% | | Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port | 1,750 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 2.94% | 14.38% | 14.38% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Intraday Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position Volume | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,683.5 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | 1,687.5 yuan/ton | 1,663 yuan/ton | | - 223,511 | 38,358 lots | - 71 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,129 points | - 1.83% | 1,131 points | 1,070 points | 616 | | 515,444 lots | - 17,288 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [15][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [20][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production situation, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking - plant operation situation [27][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core viewpoint. It is expected to maintain a low - level and weak operation due to factors such as the stalemate between coking enterprises and steel mills, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and weakened cost support [30]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core viewpoint. Without policy intervention, coal prices are likely to be suppressed by the fundamentals and remain low before the Spring Festival [31].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 利多驱动不足，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 下游压力再现，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考 ...