期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗再度回落，且钢厂盈利状况改善有限， 淡季钢市矛盾也在累积，需求弱势格局延续，相对利好的则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到 货高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量，按船期推算后续到货也将回落，内矿供应虽有所恢复，矿石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 下游压力再现，煤焦弱势运行 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 20 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1673.5 元/吨，日内录得 3.54%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +792 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1470 元/吨，周 环比下跌 0.68%。近期内蒙一钢厂发生爆炸事故，引发铁水减产担忧，市 场负反馈预期升温，叠加焦炭自身基本面无明显支撑，驱动焦炭期货维持 低位偏弱运行。 焦煤：1 月 20 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1124 点，日内下跌 4.50%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 53.27 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+30015 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1240.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 2.06%。整体来看，焦煤维持供需两增局面，基本面无明显好转，且冬储 补库和春节煤矿停产预期已有所发酵，未来煤价上行动能或需依靠政策驱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating downward, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to below 15,620 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 0.89% lower at 15,620 yuan/ton. The premium spread between the May and September contracts widened to 45 yuan/ton. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber futures showed a profit-taking trend, and it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,219 yuan/ton and a low of 2,183 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.21% lower at 2,206 yuan/ton. The discount spread between the May and September contracts narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. In the stage of multi - empty divergence, the methanol futures may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 on Tuesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 440.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 436.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price closed 1.27% lower at 437.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back the premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals dominated. The short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons with a growth rate of 6.42%, and the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese semi - steel tire industry was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese full - steel tire industry was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of heavy - duty trucks in China reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.80%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.42%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.49%, and a significant increase of 6.06% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0354 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 4,400 tons, and a significant increase of 113,500 tons compared with 1.9219 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average operating load of coal - (methanol) to olefin plants in China was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. As of January 16, 2026, the futures market profit of methanol to olefins in China was - 236 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 69 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 105 yuan/ton. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0445 million tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 114,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 26,100 tons, and a significant increase of 281,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 450,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 98,100 tons, and a significant increase of 142,600 tons compared with 308,300 tons in the same period last year [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 2.72 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, remaining at a historical high. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant increase of 9.767 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 58,128 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 776 contracts and a slight decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 13, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 193,366 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,600 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,225 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | 2,206 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 19 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 414.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 437.0 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since achieving a net steel export in 2006, China's steel product export volume as a proportion of the global total has been on an upward trend. In recent years, due to tariff disturbances, the domestic steel export market has been expanding, with the export scale increasing year by year. The export volume exceeded 100 million tons in 2024 and reached a new high in 2025 [5][9]. - In 2025, steel exports showed several characteristics: a shift in the export variety structure with the increase coming from long - products, diversification of export countries with an increasing share of emerging markets, and a situation of increasing volume but decreasing price, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [5][12][16]. - Currently, the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas demand, so the resilience of steel exports still exists. However, there are also more challenges in the future, such as intensified trade frictions, domestic policy adjustments, the EU carbon tariff policy, the recovery of overseas supply, and the pressure of RMB appreciation [5][23][26]. - In summary, weak domestic demand forced steel mills to increase exports, and with good price advantages, steel exports in 2025 were strong, alleviating domestic pressure. However, with the increase of challenges, the resilience of steel exports will be impacted, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [5][44][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Exports Reached a New High - China is the world's largest steel producer, and its steel export pattern affects the global steel product trade pattern. In 2025, despite trade barriers, the steel export volume continued to grow. The cumulative export volume of steel products in 2025 was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons or 7.50%. Meanwhile, steel imports remained sluggish, with an import volume of only 6.06 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 75,000 tons or 11%. The export of steel billets also performed well in 2025, with the cumulative export volume from January to November reaching 1.33801 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 782,000 tons or 140.64%. The combined export increase of steel and steel billets was 1.7 million tons, effectively alleviating the weak domestic demand pressure [9]. - In 2025, steel exports had the following characteristics: - **Shift in export variety structure**: The export increase came from long - products. Due to the downturn in the real estate market, the surplus of domestic construction steel (long - products) increased, and exports became an important factor in adjusting domestic supply - demand balance. From January to November, the cumulative export volumes of bars, sections, and wire rods increased by 527,000 tons, 183,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 43.95%, 34.33%, and 12.13%. In contrast, the export growth rate of plates slowed down, and the export of ordinary plates such as hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils was directly affected by anti - dumping measures [12]. - **Diversification of export countries**: Traditional markets were under pressure due to anti - dumping policies, but emerging markets were rising. Southeast Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa, and South America all showed an increase in steel imports from China [16]. - **Increasing volume but decreasing price**: In 2025, the total steel export volume was 119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.50%, while the export value was 82.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, indicating that the strong steel export was mainly supported by low - price advantages [19]. 3.2 Steel Exports Face More Challenges - **Reasons for the high - growth of steel exports in 2025**: On the one hand, the intensification of domestic supply - demand contradictions forced steel mills to increase exports. On the other hand, there was a significant cost advantage, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets was the core driving force for steel exports. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists because the domestic price advantage remains, and there is an increase in overseas steel demand. The World Steel Association estimates that global steel demand will rebound moderately by 1.3% in 2026, reaching 1.773 billion tons [23]. - **Challenges in 2026**: - **Intensified trade frictions**: In recent years, the EU, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries have frequently launched "double - anti" investigations and imposed high tariffs on Chinese steel products, resulting in a decline in China's export share in these markets. In 2024, there were 33 original investigations on trade remedies for Chinese steel products, and in 2025, there were more than 150 investigations or arbitrations. In 2026, as the anti - dumping cases from 2024 - 2025 enter the final ruling stage, China's steel exports will face more extensive trade resistance [26]. - **Domestic export policy adjustment**: On December 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to adjust the "Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Administration (2025)", including some steel products with 300 customs commodity codes in the catalogue. It is difficult to assess the actual impact of this policy on exports for now. If strictly implemented, large steel enterprises may be less affected, while small and medium - sized enterprises may face restrictions [29]. - **EU carbon tariff policy**: The EU carbon tariff (CBAM) officially started to be levied on January 1, 2026. Once the free quota is completely removed, the CBAM cost of exporting one ton of steel to the EU will increase by 140 - 160 euros, eroding the profit space of enterprises. The implementation of CBAM will significantly weaken China's price advantage in steel exports, and Chinese steel products will face a competitive situation of "being attacked from both inside and outside" in the EU market. In addition, the compliance threshold has been greatly increased, and the short - term export process will be blocked [31]. - **Recovery of overseas supply**: From January to November 2025, the crude steel output of overseas countries (excluding China) was 766.888 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.798 million tons or 0.24%. The emerging markets of India and Southeast Asia maintained high - growth, and the production capacities of Turkey and Iran were recovering. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar credit and the pressure of RMB appreciation will also suppress domestic steel exports [35]. 3.3 Conclusion - China's steel exports have been increasing year by year. In 2025, steel exports reached a new high, showing characteristics such as a shift in the export variety structure, diversification of export countries, and increasing volume but decreasing price. Currently, the resilience of steel exports still exists, but in the future, there will be more challenges, and the direct export volume may decline from its peak [45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 160500 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13240 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152540 元/吨，较前日上涨 1.07%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-2920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 6580 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 专业研究·创造价值 2 / ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 20 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.18%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹需求虽有所改善，但持续性存疑，而供应弱稳运行，基本面延续季 节性弱势，淡季钢价承压运行，短期延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注钢厂 生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.97%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双高局面下热卷基本面平稳运行，但需求存有隐忧，一旦其转 弱则产业矛盾易积累，届时价格将承压走弱，重点关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term and mid - term strong trend and an intraday oscillating and slightly stronger trend. Copper is also projected to be strong in the long - term, with a mid - term strong trend, a short - term oscillating trend, and an intraday oscillating and slightly weaker trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold opened high and went high, breaking last week's high and approaching $4700 per ounce, while Shanghai gold broke through 1050 yuan per gram [3] - **Driving Factors**: The direct trigger for the gold price increase is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in "Greenland". The US-EU relationship has deteriorated, with the US threatening tariffs and military action, and the EU preparing retaliatory tariffs. The significant rise of silver has also driven up the price of gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, a 14 - year low, attracting arbitrage funds into gold [3] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, short - term and mid - term strong, intraday oscillating and slightly stronger. Monitor the long - short game at the $4700 level of New York gold [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price opened high and maintained an oscillating trend. On Monday morning, affected by the "Greenland" issue, the strong opening of precious metals boosted the long sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, causing the copper price to rebound from the bottom [4] - **Industrial Situation**: As the copper price declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate [4] - **Viewpoints**: Long - term strong, mid - term strong, short - term oscillating, intraday oscillating and slightly weaker. Pay attention to the support at the 100,000 level [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that the domestic thermal coal price rally has narrowed and stabilized again. The price of thermal coal will maintain a low - level operation due to warm winter temperatures, sufficient overall supply, weak demand, and insufficient fundamental support [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Inventory Data** - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a slight weekly increase of 6 yuan/ton [5]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory of 9 ports around the Bohai Sea was 2705.1 million tons, a weekly increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [5]. - **Market Driving Factors** - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, the demand for residential heating declined, and although the temperature will drop significantly again by late January, the coal inventory at ports and downstream power plants is sufficient as of now, leading to a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [5]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable, but due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [5].